\1ANUAL. Corrigendum No. 1

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1 ST/SOA/SERIES.A/ Population Studies No. 10 MANUAL ON METIIODS OF ESTIMATING POPULATION \1ANUAL I METHODS OF ESTIMATING TOTAL POPULATION FOR CURRENT DATES Corrigendum No. 1 Page 28, second column, line 6, under section 2. For Switzerland read Swaziland

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3 FOREWORD This is the first of a series of manuals on methods of estimating' population, which the Population Division of the United Nations Departme~t o(social Affairs has undertaken to prepare in accordance with a recommendation of the Population Commission (E/CN.9/88, paragraph 25). \This Manual deals with methods of estimating the total population of a country or terrilory for current dates. In later manuals it is intended to take up other problems in the field of population estimates, including estimates of past and future population and of population characteristics. The primary purpose of these manuals is to assist governments in improving the quality of official population estimates. In addition, it is expected that they will be useful as materials for national and international training courses and university teaching in the field of demographic methods, and as reference works' for individual technicians engaged in demographic research. The present Manual was prepared. by the Population Division in COnsultation with the Statistical Office of the United Nations..iii

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5 CONTENTS Chapter INTRODUCTION 1. The need for current population estimates Recent progress in population estimates Scope and purpose of this Manual Types of methods of estimating total population for current dates Page I. CONSIDERATIONS OF QUALITY IN POPULATION ESTIMATES 1. Determination of the accuracy of estimates Methods of stating the degree of reliability The rounding of figures The problem of internal consistency The problem of international comparability Conclusions... 9 II. CONJECTURAL ESTIMATES 1. The nature of conjectural estimates of total population Conjectural e.stimates made by explorers and travellers " Composite basic estimates compiled by an administration Other types of conjectural estimates The reliability of a conjectural estimate Time adjustment of conjectural estimates Standards of comparability for conjectural estimates Improvement and appraisal of conjectural estimates through full utilization of existing knowledge '".. 17 III. ESTIMATES BASED ON THE RESULTS OF INCOMPLETE CENSUSES AND NON CENSAL COUNTS 1. Types of incomplete enumerations and non-censal counts Incomplete or defective census enumerations Enumeration of individuals by registration boards Group enumeration Enumerations of individuals with specific qualifications Determining improved multipliers Time adjustment of estimates derived from non-censal counts... " Comparability and consistency of estimates based on non-censal counts Improvement of estimates based on non-censal counts by full uti1i1;ation of existing knowledge IV. ESTIMATES BASED ON ONE CENSUS ONLY 1. Importa.lce of a census for accurate population estimates Estimates based on one recent census Estimates based on a census taken in the more distant past Evaluation and improvement of the quality of estimates based on one census only 27 v

6 Chap,,,, Page V. ESTIMATES DERIVED BY EXTRAPOLATION OF CENSUS RESULTS A. Methods requiring two censuses only 1. The utilization of the results of two censuses Extrapolation by means of arithmetic rates of increase.... : Extrapolation by means of geometric rates of increase Modified methods of extrapolation... '" B. Methods requiring three or more previous. censuses 5. Extrapolation by means of parabolas '" Parabolic extrapolation of transformed data Extrapolation by means of gtowth curves " 33 C. General observations pertaining to current estimates derived by extrapolation 8. Elements of reliability in estimates derived by extrapolation Improvement of estimates derived by extrapolation, and standards of comparability Comparative results obtained by various methods of extrapolation Short-period extrapolations for the purpose of making provisional estimates..., VI. ESTIMATES BASED ON CENSUSES, VITAL REGISTERS AND RECORDS OF MIGRATION 1. Advantages of the use of vital statistics and migration statistics Components of error in estima.tes based on censuses and vital statistics with or without migration statistics Methods of improving estimates using vital statistics and migration statistics Comparison of recorded natural increase with increase shown by successive censuses VII. BALANCES DERIVED FROM CONTINUOUS POPULATION REGISTERS 1. The nature of a continuous population register The comparability of estimates derived from a continuous population register 42 APPENDICES A. A NOTE ON THE "MEAN POPULATIO~J B. THE USES OF SAMPLING IN THE IMPROVEMENT OF POPULATION ESTIMATES 1. The principles of sampling... ; Summary of possible applications of sampling in the improvement of population estimates ,. 44 vi