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1 4 Figure 1. - Petroleum Prices - WEST TEXAS INTERMEDIATE CRUDE OIL PRICE (dollars per barrel) Source: Platt s "Oilgram Price Report" Figure 2. GASOLINE PUMP PRICE* (dollars per gallon) Total / / Ex Tax * Source: Oil & Gas Journal. National average..6. Page 2 / December 18, 1 / Analyst s Handbook: Energy OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.
2 Figure 3. ENERGY SECTOR - S&P (Large Cap): Energy - OIL & GAS (DRILLING & EQUIPMENT) BHI HAL RDC SLB RIG / / OIL & GAS (EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION) APC APA BR DVN KMG UCL OIL & GAS (REFINING & MARKETING) ASH SUN TOS 12/ / OIL (DOMESTIC INTEGRATED) AHC COC.B MRO OXY P OIL (INTERNATIONAL INTEGRATED) CHV XOM RD TX /31 12/ day moving average. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Analyst s Handbook: Energy / December 18, 1 / Page 3
3 Figure 4. ENERGY SECTOR - S&P (Mid Cap): Energy / OIL & GAS (DRILLING & EQUIPMENT) BJS CAM ESV GLM GRP HC HP NBR NE SII TDW VRC WFT 12/ OIL & GAS (REFINING & MARKETING) PZL UDS VLO / day moving average. Page 4 / December 18, 1 / Analyst s Handbook: Energy OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.
4 Figure. - S&P 6 (Small Cap): Energy - OIL & GAS (DRILLING & EQUIPMENT) ATW CDIS DRQ FGH IO OII OLOG PDE CKH SEI TTI VTS / OIL & GAS (EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION) BRR CPG XTO HSE LD NFX POG PLX PPP ROIL MARY SGY SFY NEV VPI 12/ day moving average. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Analyst s Handbook: Energy / December 18, 1 / Page
5 Figure 6. - European Energy - ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: EURENER Invalid calculation element [JL@EUROENSEC] :1: ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: EUROILG Invalid calculation element [JL@EUROOILGASIND] :1:41 ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: EUROEQ Invalid calculation element [JL@EUROENEQSEIND] :1: Page 6 / December 18, 1 / Analyst s Handbook: Energy OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.
6 4 3 1 Figure 7. S&P ENERGY OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Consensus Forecasts 12-month forward* Annual estimates 99 - Earnings & Valuation * Time-weighted average of current and next years consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Financial. 3 1 Figure 8. S&P ENERGY VALUATION & GROWTH P/E* Earnings Growth** P/E Relative to S&P * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. ** -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Percent annual rate. Source: Thomson Financial. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Analyst s Handbook: Energy / December 18, 1 / Page 7
7 4 3 - Earnings & Valuation: Drilling - Figure 9. S&P OIL & GAS DRILLING OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts) 99 Consensus Forecasts 12-month forward* Annual estimates * Time-weighted average of current and next years consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Financial. 7 6 Figure. S&P OIL & GAS DRILLING VALUATION & GROWTH P/E* Earnings Growth** P/E Relative to S&P * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. ** -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Percent annual rate. Source: Thomson Financial. Page 8 / December 18, 1 / Analyst s Handbook: Energy OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.
8 Figure Earnings & Valuation: Exploration - S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts) 6 Consensus Forecasts 4 12-month forward* Annual estimates * Time-weighted average of current and next years consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Financial. 8 6 Figure 12. S&P OIL & GAS EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION VALUATION & GROWTH P/E* Earnings Growth** P/E Relative to S&P * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. ** -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Percent annual rate. Source: Thomson Financial. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Analyst s Handbook: Energy / December 18, 1 / Page 9
9 - Earnings & Valuation: Integrated (Domestic) - Figure 13. S&P INTEGRATED OIL & GAS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Consensus Forecasts 12-month forward Annual estimates Source: Thomson Financial Figure 14. S&P INTEGRATED OIL & GAS VALUATION & GROWTH P/E* Earnings Growth** P/E Relative to S&P * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. ** -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Percent annual rate. Source: Thomson Financial. Page / December 18, 1 / Analyst s Handbook: Energy OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.
10 - Earnings & Valuation: Integrated (International) - Figure 1. S&P INTEGRATED OIL & GAS OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (analysts average forecasts, ratio scale) Consensus Forecasts 12-month forward* Annual estimates * Time-weighted average of current and next years consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Financial. 3 1 Figure 16. S&P INTEGRATED OIL & GAS VALUATION & GROWTH P/E* Earnings Growth** P/E Relative to S&P * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. ** -year forward consensus expected earnings growth. Percent annual rate. Source: Thomson Financial. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Analyst s Handbook: Energy / December 18, 1 / Page 11
11 Figure 17. ENERGY SECTOR (% of estimates up minus down*) OIL & GAS (DRILLING & EQUIPMENT) BHI HAL NBR NE RDC RIG SLB - Energy Net Revisions - Dec Dec OIL & GAS (EXPLORATION & PRODUCTION) APC APA BR DVN KMG UCL EOG OIL & GAS (DOMESTIC INTEGRATED) AHC COC.B MIRO OXY P Dec Dec * 3-month moving average of 12-month forward earnings using mid-month I/B/E/S consensus forecast. Page 12 / December 18, 1 / Analyst s Handbook: Energy OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.
12 - P/Es & Growth - Figure 18. S&P P/E RATIOS* 4 3 S&P Index Consumer Discretionary Information Technology * Price divided by 12-month forward consensus expected operating earnings per share using mid-month data. Source: Thomson Financial Figure 19. S&P LONG-TERM EARNINGS GROWTH* (annual rate, percent) Oil & Gas: Drilling & Equipment Oil & Gas: Exploration & Production Oil: Domestic Integrated Oil: International Integrated Dec * -year forward consensus expected earnings using mid-month data. Source: Thomson Financial 4 OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Analyst s Handbook: Energy / December 18, 1 / Page 13
13 Figure. TOTAL WORLD - Crude Oil Demand* - LATIN AMERICA UNITED STATES ASIA EX JAPAN* * Includes China and Korea WESTERN EUROPE CHINA & KOREA China South Korea JAPAN MEXICO & BRAZIL Mexico Brazil * Millions of barrels per day, 12-month average. Source Oil Market Intelligence. Page 14 / December 18, 1 / Analyst s Handbook: Energy OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.
14 78 76 Figure 21. CRUDE OIL DEMAND (millions of barrels per day, 12-month average) - Crude Oil Demand Total World Source: Oil Market Intelligence Figure 22. CRUDE OIL DEMAND (millions of barrels per day, 12-month average) Industrial* Emerging** * US, Western Europe, and Japan ** Total excluding US, Western Europe, and Japan. Source: Oil Market Intelligence 28 OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Analyst s Handbook: Energy / December 18, 1 / Page 1
15 . 19. Figure Crude Oil Demand - CRUDE OIL DEMAND (millions of barrels per day, 12-month average) United States Source: Oil Market Intelligence Figure 24. CRUDE OIL DEMAND (millions of barrels per day, 12-month average) Western Europe Source: Oil Market Intelligence 13. Page 16 / December 18, 1 / Analyst s Handbook: Energy OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.
16 . 19. Figure. CRUDE OIL DEMAND (millions of barrels per day, 12-month average) - Crude Oil Demand Asia Including China, Japan and Korea Source: Oil Market Intelligence Figure 26. CRUDE OIL DEMAND (millions of barrels per day, 12-month average) Asia Excluding China, Japan and Korea Source: Oil Market Intelligence OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Analyst s Handbook: Energy / December 18, 1 / Page 17
17 6..8 Figure Crude Oil Demand - CRUDE OIL DEMAND (millions of barrels per day, 12-month average) Japan Source: Oil Market Intelligence Figure 28. CRUDE OIL DEMAND (millions of barrels per day, 12-month average) China South Korea Source: Oil Market Intelligence. Page 18 / December 18, 1 / Analyst s Handbook: Energy OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.
18 Figure 29. CRUDE OIL DEMAND (millions of barrels per day, 12-month average) - Crude Oil Demand Latin America Source: Oil Market Intelligence Figure. CRUDE OIL DEMAND (millions of barrels per day, 12-month average) Mexico Brazil Source: Oil Market Intelligence OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Analyst s Handbook: Energy / December 18, 1 / Page 19
19 Figure Crude Oil Output - Figure 32. Page / December 18, 1 / Analyst s Handbook: Energy OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.
20 6 Figure 33. US PETROLEUM USAGE (million barrels per day, 2-week ma) - US Petroleum Usage Jan 6 Total Petroleum Usage Source: Department of Energy 4 Figure 34. OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Analyst s Handbook: Energy / December 18, 1 / Page 21
21 Figure 3. - US Petroleum Stocks - ***** Chart Not Available ***** Task: ZZOILINV COMPOSE command attempted on missing data :29:3 Figure 36. FINISHED MOTOR GASOLINE STOCKS* (millions of barrels) * Source: American Petroleum Institute. 1 Page 22 / December 18, 1 / Analyst s Handbook: Energy OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.
22 11 Figure 37. U.S. CRUDE OIL OUTPUT & IMPORTS (million barrels per day, nsa) - US Crude Oil Output Production 6 Nov Source: Department of Energy. Figure 38. US ROTARY RIGS (number of rigs) Oil & Gas* Gas** Mar * Rotary Rigs actually making hole. Source: International Association of Drilling Contractors & Hughes Tool Company. ** Rotary Rigs in operation. Source: Monthly Energy Review Oil** OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Analyst s Handbook: Energy / December 18, 1 / Page 23
23 - Crude Oil Costs - Figure 39. CRUDE OIL DEMAND (millions of barrels per day, 12-month averages) Americas Feb Asia 1 1 Europe Source: Energy Intelligence Group, "Oil Market Intelligence." 7 67 Figure. CRUDE OIL OUTLAYS* (billion dollars) U.S. & Latin America Europe Asia Feb * Total crude oil demand multiplied by 36 days and the price of a barrel of crude oil. Source: Energy Intelligence Group, "Oil Market Intelligence." Page 24 / December 18, 1 / Analyst s Handbook: Energy OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd.
24 18 16 Figure 41. TOTAL WORLD CRUDE OIL REVENUES* (billion dollars, annual rate) - Crude Oil Revenues - Jan * Total crude oil output multiplied by 36 days and the price of a barrel of crude oil. Source: U.S. Department of Energy s, "Monthly Energy Review" and Platt s "Oilgram Price Report". 8 Figure 42. TOTAL OPEC CRUDE OIL REVENUES* (billions) 8 Jan * Total crude oil output multiplied by 36 days and the price of a barrel of crude oil. Source: US Department of Energy, "Monthly Energy Review" and Platt s Oilgram Price Report OAK ASSOCIATES, ltd. Analyst s Handbook: Energy / December 18, 1 / Page
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