Probability. Ms. Weinstein Probability & Statistics


 Kelly Mitchell
 1 years ago
 Views:
Transcription
1 Probability Ms. Weinstein Probability & Statistics
2 Definitions Sample Space The sample space, S, of a random phenomenon is the set of all possible outcomes. Event An event is a set of outcomes of a random phenomenon; that is, a subset of the sample space.
3 Definitions Trial A trial is a single occurrence of the random phenomenon. A single trial can result in any one of the possible outcomes in the sample space.
4 Example 1 If the random phenomenon is drawing a card at random out of a standard deck of cards, then the sample space is the set of individual cards in the deck: S = {A, 2,..., Q, K, A, 2,..., Q, K, A, 2,..., Q, K, A, 2,..., Q, K } There are 52 possible outcomes in this sample space.
5 Example 1 (cont d) If an event, call it A, is drawing a card at random and getting a queen, then the event is: A = {Q, Q, Q, Q } There are 4 possible outcomes in this event. A trial would be drawing one card at random from the deck one time.
6 Example 2 If the random phenomenon is tossing a fair coin twice, then the sample space is the set of all possible outcomes of the coin toss: S = { HH, HT, TH, TT } There are 4 possible outcomes in this sample space.
7 Example 2 (cont d) If an event, call it B, is tossing a fair coin twice and getting at least one Tails, then the event is: B = { HT, TH, TT } There are 3 possible outcomes in this event. A trial would be tossing a single coin two times.
8 Notation Notation Read As Means P(A) P of A The probability that event A will occur on any given trial of the random phenomenon
9 Basic Probability Rules Rule # 1: 0 P(A) 1 The probability of any event A that may occur is a number between 0 and 1. 0 < P(A) < 1 An event with P(A) = 0 never occurs. An event with P(A) = 1 always occurs.
10 Basic Probability Rules Rule # 2: P(S) = 1 The collection S of all possible outcomes has probability 1. In other words, every trial must result in one of the possible outcomes.
11 Equally Likely Outcomes If a random phenomenon has k possible outcomes, all equally likely, then each individual outcome has probability 1/k. P(A) = count of outcomes in A count of outcomes in S = count of outcomes in A k
12 Example 1. If event A is drawing a card at random from a standard deck of cards and getting a queen, then: P(A)= Count of outcomes in A Count of outcomes in S
13 Example 2. If event B is tossing a fair coin twice and getting at least one tails, then: P(B) = Count of outcomes in B Count of outcomes in S 3 4
14 Practice 1. You roll a blue and red die at the same time. 1. List the sample space. 2. List the event that you get doubles. 3. Find the following probabilities: a. not getting doubles. b. getting a 5 on the blue die. c. getting a 5 on at least one die.
15 Definitions Complement If A is any event, then the event that A does NOT occur is call the complement of A.
16 Notation Notation Read As Means A or A c or A A complement The event that A does not occur.
17 Complement Rule The probability that the complement of an event occurs is equal to one minus the probability that the event does occur. P(A ) = 1 P(A)
18 Example 1. If event A is drawing a card at random from a standard deck of cards and getting a queen, then the probability of not drawing a queen is: P( A') 1 P( A)
19 Example 2. If event B is tossing a fair coin twice and getting at least one tails, then the probability of not getting a tails on either toss is: P( B') P( B) 3 4
20 Definitions Disjoint Events Events that have no common outcomes are called disjoint events. Union of Events ( OR ) The union of two events is the combined set of outcomes in those events. If the same outcome is in both events, it is only listed once in the union set.
21 Notation Notation Read As Means A union B A B or A or B The event that either A or B occurs (note: both A and B could occur)
22 Addition Rule for Disjoint Events If events A and B are disjoint, then P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) Set notation: P(A B) = P(A) + P(B)
23 Practice 2. You roll a die and toss a coin. 1. List the sample space. 2. Let A be the event that you get an even number on the die and tails on the coin. Let B be the event that you get heads on the coin. List A and B. 3. a. Find P(A), P(B) and P(A or B) b. Are events A and B disjoint?
24 Definitions Intersection of Events ( AND ) The intersection of two events is the set of outcomes that exist in both of those events. Note: If events are disjoint, then their intersection is an empty set.
25 Notation Notation Read As Means A intersect B A B or A and B The event that both A and B occur
26 General Addition Rule P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A and B) Set notation: P(A B) = P(A) + P(B) P(A B)
27 Practice 3. You roll a die and toss a coin. 1. Let A be the event that you get an even number on the die. Let B be the event that you get tails on the coin. List A and B. 2. a. Find P(A), P(B), P(A or B), P(A and B) b. Are events A and B disjoint?
28 Representations Venn Diagram Tree Diagram TwoWay Table Probability Distribution
29 Venn Diagrams Start with the overlap areas. The total for each circle is the sum of all the parts in that circle. The sum of all parts together must equal 1. Useful for computing probabilities of events that are not disjoint.
30 Example: P(A) =.3, P(B) =.5, P(A B) =.1 Complete the Venn Diagram to illustrate these probabilities. A B
31 Tree Diagrams Each set of branches from one starting point must equal 1. Multiply the probabilities along each branch to get the probability of all the events on that branch occurring. The sum of all the final probabilities must equal 1. Useful for computing probabilities of independent observations.
32 Example: What is the probability that you will roll a die three times and get at least two threes? Draw a tree diagram to illustrate this. Begin 1/6 5/6 3 Not 3 1/6 5/6 1/6 5/6 3 Not 3 3 Not 3 1/6 5/6 1/6 5/6 1/6 5/6 1/6 5/6 3 Not 3 3 Not 3 3 Not 3 3 Not 3 1/216 5/216 5/216 25/216 5/216 25/216 25/ /216
33 TwoWay Table Twoway tables have two categories: one for the rows, and one for the columns. The sum of the row probabilities is 1. The sum of the column probabilities is 1. Useful for computing conditional probabilities.
34 Example: You are testing a new virusprotection software program. You find that 4% of the time, the software detects a virus when there is no virus. It misses a virus that does exist about 2% of the time. If a virus really exists 5% of the times, complete the 2way table to illustrate this. Virus Exists No Virus Exists Row Totals Virus Detected Not Detected Column Totals
35 Probability Distribution List all the possible outcomes. List the probability of each outcome. The sum of all the probabilities must = 1. Useful for computing probabilities of events that are not equally likely.
36 Example: You roll two dice and add the values. Complete a probability distribution for the sum of the two dice. Step 1: Write out the possible outcomes. Step 2: Calculate the probability of each outcome. Step 3: Summarize the probability distribution.
37 Example: First Die Value Second Die Value Sums
38 Example: You roll two dice and add the values. Complete a probability distribution for the sum of the two dice. Possible Sums Probability of Each Sum
39 Practice 4. A couple has three children. Given that the probability of any child born a boy is ½, a. Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the possible genders of the three children, in order. b. What is the probability that the couple has exactly two girls? c. Complete a probability distribution for the number of girls the couple could have.
40 Definitions Conditional Probability Conditional probability is the probability of an event given that you know another event has occurred.
41 Notation Notation Read As Means P(A B) P of A given B The probability that event A occurs, given that event B has occurred.
42 Conditional Probability The probability of event A occurring, given that event B has occurred is: P(A B) = P(A and B) P(B) Given goes in the denominator! Note: P(B) must not equal 0.
43 Example 1. Draw a card at random from a standard deck. Event A is you draw a queen. Event B is you draw a red card. What is the probability that you draw a queen, given that the card is red? P( A) P( A 4 52 B), P( B) P( A B) P( B) 26, P( A 2 52 B)
44 General Multiplication Rule The probability of two events both occurring is the probability of the first times the probability of the second, given that the first has occurred: P(A and B) = P(A) P(B A) as well as P(A and B) = P(B) P(A B)
45 Definitions Independent Events Two events are said to be independent if knowing the outcome of one event does not change the probability of the other event occurring. That is, P(B A) = P(B) and P(A B) = P(A)
46 Multiplication Rule for Independent Events The probability of two independent events both occurring is the product of their individual probabilities: P(A and B) = P(A) P(B) Note: If this multiplication rule holds, then two events are independent.
47 Practice 5. You draw one card from a standard deck. Event A is the card is a heart. Event B is the card is face card. 1. Are these events independent? How can you know? 2. State an Event in this sample space that would NOT be independent from Event A.
Such a description is the basis for a probability model. Here is the basic vocabulary we use.
5.2.1 Probability Models When we toss a coin, we can t know the outcome in advance. What do we know? We are willing to say that the outcome will be either heads or tails. We believe that each of these
More informationProbability Models. Section 6.2
Probability Models Section 6.2 The Language of Probability What is random? Empirical means that it is based on observation rather than theorizing. Probability describes what happens in MANY trials. Example
More informationChapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances? Section 5.2 Probability Rules
+ Chapter 5: Probability: What are the Chances? Section 5.2 + TwoWay Tables and Probability When finding probabilities involving two events, a twoway table can display the sample space in a way that
More informationPROBABILITY. 1. Introduction. Candidates should able to:
PROBABILITY Candidates should able to: evaluate probabilities in simple cases by means of enumeration of equiprobable elementary events (e.g for the total score when two fair dice are thrown), or by calculation
More informationProbability. Dr. Zhang Fordham Univ.
Probability! Dr. Zhang Fordham Univ. 1 Probability: outline Introduction! Experiment, event, sample space! Probability of events! Calculate Probability! Through counting! Sum rule and general sum rule!
More informationProbability. Probabilty Impossibe Unlikely Equally Likely Likely Certain
PROBABILITY Probability The likelihood or chance of an event occurring If an event is IMPOSSIBLE its probability is ZERO If an event is CERTAIN its probability is ONE So all probabilities lie between 0
More information7.1 Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events
7.1 Experiments, Sample Spaces, and Events An experiment is an activity that has observable results. Examples: Tossing a coin, rolling dice, picking marbles out of a jar, etc. The result of an experiment
More informationDefine and Diagram Outcomes (Subsets) of the Sample Space (Universal Set)
12.3 and 12.4 Notes Geometry 1 Diagramming the Sample Space using Venn Diagrams A sample space represents all things that could occur for a given event. In set theory language this would be known as the
More informationGeorgia Department of Education Georgia Standards of Excellence Framework GSE Geometry Unit 6
How Odd? Standards Addressed in this Task MGSE912.S.CP.1 Describe categories of events as subsets of a sample space using unions, intersections, or complements of other events (or, and, not). MGSE912.S.CP.7
More informationProbability: Terminology and Examples Spring January 1, / 22
Probability: Terminology and Examples 18.05 Spring 2014 January 1, 2017 1 / 22 Board Question Deck of 52 cards 13 ranks: 2, 3,..., 9, 10, J, Q, K, A 4 suits:,,,, Poker hands Consists of 5 cards A onepair
More informationI. WHAT IS PROBABILITY?
C HAPTER 3 PROAILITY Random Experiments I. WHAT IS PROAILITY? The weatherman on 10 o clock news program states that there is a 20% chance that it will snow tomorrow, a 65% chance that it will rain and
More informationLecture 6 Probability
Lecture 6 Probability Example: When you toss a coin, there are only two possible outcomes, heads and tails. What if we toss a coin two times? Figure below shows the results of tossing a coin 5000 times
More informationProbability and Counting Rules. Chapter 3
Probability and Counting Rules Chapter 3 Probability as a general concept can be defined as the chance of an event occurring. Many people are familiar with probability from observing or playing games of
More informationSTOR 155 Introductory Statistics. Lecture 10: Randomness and Probability Model
The UNIVERSITY of NORTH CAROLINA at CHAPEL HILL STOR 155 Introductory Statistics Lecture 10: Randomness and Probability Model 10/6/09 Lecture 10 1 The Monty Hall Problem Let s Make A Deal: a game show
More informationProbability  Chapter 4
Probability  Chapter 4 In this chapter, you will learn about probability its meaning, how it is computed, and how to evaluate it in terms of the likelihood of an event actually happening. A cynical person
More information4.1 Sample Spaces and Events
4.1 Sample Spaces and Events An experiment is an activity that has observable results. Examples: Tossing a coin, rolling dice, picking marbles out of a jar, etc. The result of an experiment is called an
More informationChapter 6: Probability and Simulation. The study of randomness
Chapter 6: Probability and Simulation The study of randomness 6.1 Randomness Probability describes the pattern of chance outcomes. Probability is the basis of inference Meaning, the pattern of chance outcomes
More informationSTAT 155 Introductory Statistics. Lecture 11: Randomness and Probability Model
The UNIVERSITY of NORTH CAROLINA at CHAPEL HILL STAT 155 Introductory Statistics Lecture 11: Randomness and Probability Model 10/5/06 Lecture 11 1 The Monty Hall Problem Let s Make A Deal: a game show
More informationIf you roll a die, what is the probability you get a four OR a five? What is the General Education Statistics
If you roll a die, what is the probability you get a four OR a five? What is the General Education Statistics probability that you get neither? Class Notes The Addition Rule (for OR events) and Complements
More informationApplications of Probability
Applications of Probability CK12 Kaitlyn Spong Say Thanks to the Authors Click http://www.ck12.org/saythanks (No sign in required) To access a customizable version of this book, as well as other interactive
More informationProbability and Randomness. Day 1
Probability and Randomness Day 1 Randomness and Probability The mathematics of chance is called. The probability of any outcome of a chance process is a number between that describes the proportion of
More informationRaise your hand if you rode a bus within the past month. Record the number of raised hands.
166 CHAPTER 3 PROBABILITY TOPICS Raise your hand if you rode a bus within the past month. Record the number of raised hands. Raise your hand if you answered "yes" to BOTH of the first two questions. Record
More informationLesson 4: Chapter 4 Sections 12
Lesson 4: Chapter 4 Sections 12 Caleb Moxley BSC Mathematics 14 September 15 4.1 Randomness What s randomness? 4.1 Randomness What s randomness? Definition (random) A phenomenon is random if individual
More informationSection 6.1 #16. Question: What is the probability that a fivecard poker hand contains a flush, that is, five cards of the same suit?
Section 6.1 #16 What is the probability that a fivecard poker hand contains a flush, that is, five cards of the same suit? page 1 Section 6.1 #38 Two events E 1 and E 2 are called independent if p(e 1
More informationProbability (Devore Chapter Two)
Probability (Devore Chapter Two) 101635101 Probability Winter 20112012 Contents 1 Axiomatic Probability 2 1.1 Outcomes and Events............................... 2 1.2 Rules of Probability................................
More informationNovember 6, Chapter 8: Probability: The Mathematics of Chance
Chapter 8: Probability: The Mathematics of Chance November 6, 2013 Last Time Crystallographic notation Groups Crystallographic notation The first symbol is always a p, which indicates that the pattern
More informationECON 214 Elements of Statistics for Economists
ECON 214 Elements of Statistics for Economists Session 4 Probability Lecturer: Dr. Bernardin Senadza, Dept. of Economics Contact Information: bsenadza@ug.edu.gh College of Education School of Continuing
More informationGrade 6 Math Circles Fall Oct 14/15 Probability
1 Faculty of Mathematics Waterloo, Ontario Centre for Education in Mathematics and Computing Grade 6 Math Circles Fall 2014  Oct 14/15 Probability Probability is the likelihood of an event occurring.
More informationProbability and Statistics. Copyright Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.
Probability and Statistics Copyright Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 14.2 Probability Copyright Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. Objectives What Is Probability? Calculating Probability by
More informationSimple Probability. Arthur White. 28th September 2016
Simple Probability Arthur White 28th September 2016 Probabilities are a mathematical way to describe an uncertain outcome. For eample, suppose a physicist disintegrates 10,000 atoms of an element A, and
More informationDef: The intersection of A and B is the set of all elements common to both set A and set B
Def: Sample Space the set of all possible outcomes Def: Element an item in the set Ex: The number "3" is an element of the "rolling a die" sample space Main concept write in Interactive Notebook Intersection:
More information8.2 Union, Intersection, and Complement of Events; Odds
8.2 Union, Intersection, and Complement of Events; Odds Since we defined an event as a subset of a sample space it is natural to consider set operations like union, intersection or complement in the context
More informationUnit 11 Probability. Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 Round 4
Study Notes 11.1 Intro to Probability Unit 11 Probability Many events can t be predicted with total certainty. The best thing we can do is say how likely they are to happen, using the idea of probability.
More informationChapter 1: Sets and Probability
Chapter 1: Sets and Probability Section 1.31.5 Recap: Sample Spaces and Events An is an activity that has observable results. An is the result of an experiment. Example 1 Examples of experiments: Flipping
More informationSection Introduction to Sets
Section 1.1  Introduction to Sets Definition: A set is a welldefined collection of objects usually denoted by uppercase letters. Definition: The elements, or members, of a set are denoted by lowercase
More informationTextbook: pp Chapter 2: Probability Concepts and Applications
1 Textbook: pp. 3980 Chapter 2: Probability Concepts and Applications 2 Learning Objectives After completing this chapter, students will be able to: Understand the basic foundations of probability analysis.
More informationIntermediate Math Circles November 1, 2017 Probability I
Intermediate Math Circles November 1, 2017 Probability I Probability is the study of uncertain events or outcomes. Games of chance that involve rolling dice or dealing cards are one obvious area of application.
More informationChapter 5  Elementary Probability Theory
Chapter 5  Elementary Probability Theory Historical Background Much of the early work in probability concerned games and gambling. One of the first to apply probability to matters other than gambling
More informationContents 2.1 Basic Concepts of Probability Methods of Assigning Probabilities Principle of Counting  Permutation and Combination 39
CHAPTER 2 PROBABILITY Contents 2.1 Basic Concepts of Probability 38 2.2 Probability of an Event 39 2.3 Methods of Assigning Probabilities 39 2.4 Principle of Counting  Permutation and Combination 39 2.5
More informationProbability MAT230. Fall Discrete Mathematics. MAT230 (Discrete Math) Probability Fall / 37
Probability MAT230 Discrete Mathematics Fall 2018 MAT230 (Discrete Math) Probability Fall 2018 1 / 37 Outline 1 Discrete Probability 2 Sum and Product Rules for Probability 3 Expected Value MAT230 (Discrete
More informationSTAT Chapter 14 From Randomness to Probability
STAT 203  Chapter 14 From Randomness to Probability This is the topic that started my love affair with statistics, although I should mention that we will only skim the surface of Probability. Let me tell
More informationA Probability Work Sheet
A Probability Work Sheet October 19, 2006 Introduction: Rolling a Die Suppose Geoff is given a fair sixsided die, which he rolls. What are the chances he rolls a six? In order to solve this problem, we
More informationWeek 3 Classical Probability, Part I
Week 3 Classical Probability, Part I Week 3 Objectives Proper understanding of common statistical practices such as confidence intervals and hypothesis testing requires some familiarity with probability
More informationChapter 1. Probability
Chapter 1. Probability 1.1 Basic Concepts Scientific method a. For a given problem, we define measures that explains the problem well. b. Data is collected with observation and the measures are calculated.
More informationProbability Rules. 2) The probability, P, of any event ranges from which of the following?
Name: WORKSHEET : Date: Answer the following questions. 1) Probability of event E occurring is... P(E) = Number of ways to get E/Total number of outcomes possible in S, the sample space....if. 2) The probability,
More informationChapter 6: Probability and Simulation. The study of randomness
Chapter 6: Probability and Simulation The study of randomness Introduction Probability is the study of chance. 6.1 focuses on simulation since actual observations are often not feasible. When we produce
More informationRANDOM EXPERIMENTS AND EVENTS
Random Experiments and Events 18 RANDOM EXPERIMENTS AND EVENTS In daytoday life we see that before commencement of a cricket match two captains go for a toss. Tossing of a coin is an activity and getting
More information12 Probability. Introduction Randomness
2 Probability Assessment statements 5.2 Concepts of trial, outcome, equally likely outcomes, sample space (U) and event. The probability of an event A as P(A) 5 n(a)/n(u ). The complementary events as
More informationModule 4 Project Maths Development Team Draft (Version 2)
5 Week Modular Course in Statistics & Probability Strand 1 Module 4 Set Theory and Probability It is often said that the three basic rules of probability are: 1. Draw a picture 2. Draw a picture 3. Draw
More information[Independent Probability, Conditional Probability, Tree Diagrams]
Name: Year 1 Review 119 Topic: Probability Day 2 Use your formula booklet! Page 5 Lesson 118: Probability Day 1 [Independent Probability, Conditional Probability, Tree Diagrams] Read and Highlight Station
More informationCHAPTERS 14 & 15 PROBABILITY STAT 203
CHAPTERS 14 & 15 PROBABILITY STAT 203 Where this fits in 2 Up to now, we ve mostly discussed how to handle data (descriptive statistics) and how to collect data. Regression has been the only form of statistical
More informationChapter 1. Probability
Chapter 1. Probability 1.1 Basic Concepts Scientific method a. For a given problem, we define measures that explains the problem well. b. Data is collected with observation and the measures are calculated.
More informationChapter 4: Probability and Counting Rules
Chapter 4: Probability and Counting Rules Before we can move from descriptive statistics to inferential statistics, we need to have some understanding of probability: Ch4: Probability and Counting Rules
More informationProbability I Sample spaces, outcomes, and events.
Probability I Sample spaces, outcomes, and events. When we perform an experiment, the result is called the outcome. The set of possible outcomes is the sample space and any subset of the sample space is
More informationSample Spaces, Events, Probability
Sample Spaces, Events, Probability CS 3130/ECE 3530: Probability and Statistics for Engineers August 28, 2014 Sets A set is a collection of unique objects. Sets A set is a collection of unique objects.
More informationOutcomes: The outcomes of this experiment are yellow, blue, red and green.
(Adapted from http://www.mathgoodies.com/) 1. Sample Space The sample space of an experiment is the set of all possible outcomes of that experiment. The sum of the probabilities of the distinct outcomes
More informationThe probability setup
CHAPTER 2 The probability setup 2.1. Introduction and basic theory We will have a sample space, denoted S (sometimes Ω) that consists of all possible outcomes. For example, if we roll two dice, the sample
More information4.3 Finding Probability Using Sets
4.3 Finding Probability Using ets When rolling a die with sides numbered from 1 to 20, if event A is the event that a number divisible by 5 is rolled: a) What is the sample space,? b) What is the event
More informationBusiness Statistics. Chapter 4 Using Probability and Probability Distributions QMIS 120. Dr. Mohammad Zainal
Department of Quantitative Methods & Information Systems Business Statistics Chapter 4 Using Probability and Probability Distributions QMIS 120 Dr. Mohammad Zainal Chapter Goals After completing this chapter,
More informationBell Work. WarmUp Exercises. Two sixsided dice are rolled. Find the probability of each sum or 7
WarmUp Exercises Two sixsided dice are rolled. Find the probability of each sum. 1. 7 Bell Work 2. 5 or 7 3. You toss a coin 3 times. What is the probability of getting 3 heads? WarmUp Notes Exercises
More information"Well, statistically speaking, you are for more likely to have an accident at an intersection, so I just make sure that I spend less time there.
6.2 Probability Models There was a statistician who, when driving his car, would always accelerate hard before coming to an intersection, whiz straight through it, and slow down again once he was beyond
More informationMath Exam 2 Review. NOTE: For reviews of the other sections on Exam 2, refer to the first page of WIR #4 and #5.
Math 166 Spring 2007 c Heather Ramsey Page 1 Math 166  Exam 2 Review NOTE: For reviews of the other sections on Exam 2, refer to the first page of WIR #4 and #5. Section 7.1  Experiments, Sample Spaces,
More informationKey Concepts. Theoretical Probability. Terminology. Lesson 111
Key Concepts Theoretical Probability Lesson  Objective Teach students the terminology used in probability theory, and how to make calculations pertaining to experiments where all outcomes are equally
More informationMath Exam 2 Review. NOTE: For reviews of the other sections on Exam 2, refer to the first page of WIR #4 and #5.
Math 166 Spring 2007 c Heather Ramsey Page 1 Math 166  Exam 2 Review NOTE: For reviews of the other sections on Exam 2, refer to the first page of WIR #4 and #5. Section 7.1  Experiments, Sample Spaces,
More informationBlock 1  Sets and Basic Combinatorics. Main Topics in Block 1:
Block 1  Sets and Basic Combinatorics Main Topics in Block 1: A short revision of some set theory Sets and subsets. Venn diagrams to represent sets. Describing sets using rules of inclusion. Set operations.
More information2. The figure shows the face of a spinner. The numbers are all equally likely to occur.
MYP IB Review 9 Probability Name: Date: 1. For a carnival game, a jar contains 20 blue marbles and 80 red marbles. 1. Children take turns randomly selecting a marble from the jar. If a blue marble is chosen,
More informationNovember 8, Chapter 8: Probability: The Mathematics of Chance
Chapter 8: Probability: The Mathematics of Chance November 8, 2013 Last Time Probability Models and Rules Discrete Probability Models Equally Likely Outcomes Crystallographic notation The first symbol
More informationThe probability setup
CHAPTER The probability setup.1. Introduction and basic theory We will have a sample space, denoted S sometimes Ω that consists of all possible outcomes. For example, if we roll two dice, the sample space
More informationRandom Variables. A Random Variable is a rule that assigns a number to each outcome of an experiment.
Random Variables When we perform an experiment, we are often interested in recording various pieces of numerical data for each trial. For example, when a patient visits the doctor s office, their height,
More informationOutcome X (1, 1) 2 (2, 1) 3 (3, 1) 4 (4, 1) 5 {(1, 1) (1, 2) (1, 3) (1, 4) (1, 5) (1, 6) (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6)}
Section 8: Random Variables and probability distributions of discrete random variables In the previous sections we saw that when we have numerical data, we can calculate descriptive statistics such as
More informationLenarz Math 102 Practice Exam # 3 Name: 1. A 10sided die is rolled 100 times with the following results:
Lenarz Math 102 Practice Exam # 3 Name: 1. A 10sided die is rolled 100 times with the following results: Outcome Frequency 1 8 2 8 3 12 4 7 5 15 8 7 8 8 13 9 9 10 12 (a) What is the experimental probability
More informationRandom Variables. Outcome X (1, 1) 2 (2, 1) 3 (3, 1) 4 (4, 1) 5. (6, 1) (6, 2) (6, 3) (6, 4) (6, 5) (6, 6) }
Random Variables When we perform an experiment, we are often interested in recording various pieces of numerical data for each trial. For example, when a patient visits the doctor s office, their height,
More informationCSC/MTH 231 Discrete Structures II Spring, Homework 5
CSC/MTH 231 Discrete Structures II Spring, 2010 Homework 5 Name 1. A six sided die D (with sides numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) is thrown once. a. What is the probability that a 3 is thrown? b. What is the
More informationName: Class: Date: 6. An event occurs, on average, every 6 out of 17 times during a simulation. The experimental probability of this event is 11
Class: Date: Sample Mastery # Multiple Choice Identify the choice that best completes the statement or answers the question.. One repetition of an experiment is known as a(n) random variable expected value
More informationBeginnings of Probability I
Beginnings of Probability I Despite the fact that humans have played games of chance forever (so to speak), it is only in the 17 th century that two mathematicians, Pierre Fermat and Blaise Pascal, set
More informationName. Is the game fair or not? Prove your answer with math. If the game is fair, play it 36 times and record the results.
Homework 5.1C You must complete table. Use math to decide if the game is fair or not. If Period the game is not fair, change the point system to make it fair. Game 1 Circle one: Fair or Not 2 six sided
More information1MA01: Probability. Sinéad Ryan. November 12, 2013 TCD
1MA01: Probability Sinéad Ryan TCD November 12, 2013 Definitions and Notation EVENT: a set possible outcomes of an experiment. Eg flipping a coin is the experiment, landing on heads is the event If an
More informationMULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question.
Study Guide for Test III (MATH 1630) Name MULTIPLE CHOICE. Choose the one alternative that best completes the statement or answers the question. Find the number of subsets of the set. 1) {x x is an even
More informationUnit 9: Probability Assignments
Unit 9: Probability Assignments #1: Basic Probability In each of exercises 1 & 2, find the probability that the spinner shown would land on (a) red, (b) yellow, (c) blue. 1. 2. Y B B Y B R Y Y B R 3. Suppose
More informationMath 227 Elementary Statistics. Bluman 5 th edition
Math 227 Elementary Statistics Bluman 5 th edition CHAPTER 4 Probability and Counting Rules 2 Objectives Determine sample spaces and find the probability of an event using classical probability or empirical
More informationObjective: Determine empirical probability based on specific sample data. (AA21)
Do Now: What is an experiment? List some experiments. What types of things does one take a "chance" on? Mar 1 3:33 PM Date: Probability  Empirical  By Experiment Objective: Determine empirical probability
More informationWhen combined events A and B are independent:
A Resource for reestanding Mathematics Qualifications A or B Mutually exclusive means that A and B cannot both happen at the same time. Venn Diagram showing mutually exclusive events: Aces The events
More informationWorksheets for GCSE Mathematics. Probability. mrmathematics.com Maths Resources for Teachers. Handling Data
Worksheets for GCSE Mathematics Probability mrmathematics.com Maths Resources for Teachers Handling Data Probability Worksheets Contents Differentiated Independent Learning Worksheets Probability Scales
More informationProbability. The Bag Model
Probability The Bag Model Imagine a bag (or box) containing balls of various kinds having various colors for example. Assume that a certain fraction p of these balls are of type A. This means N = total
More informationAxiomatic Probability
Axiomatic Probability The objective of probability is to assign to each event A a number P(A), called the probability of the event A, which will give a precise measure of the chance thtat A will occur.
More informationCombinatorics: The Fine Art of Counting
Combinatorics: The Fine Art of Counting Week 6 Lecture Notes Discrete Probability Note Binomial coefficients are written horizontally. The symbol ~ is used to mean approximately equal. Introduction and
More informationQuiz 2 Review  on Notebook Paper Are You Ready For Your Last Quiz In Honors Math II??
Quiz 2 Review  on Notebook Paper Are You Ready For Your Last Quiz In Honors Math II?? Some things to Know, Memorize, AND Understand how to use are n What are the formulas? Pr ncr Fill in the notation
More informationMATH 1324 (Finite Mathematics or Business Math I) Lecture Notes Author / Copyright: Kevin Pinegar
MATH 1324 Module 4 Notes: Sets, Counting and Probability 4.2 Basic Counting Techniques: Addition and Multiplication Principles What is probability? In layman s terms it is the act of assigning numerical
More informationSTAT 3743: Probability and Statistics
STAT 3743: Probability and Statistics G. Jay Kerns, Youngstown State University Fall 2010 Probability Random experiment: outcome not known in advance Sample space: set of all possible outcomes (S) Probability
More informationNovember 11, Chapter 8: Probability: The Mathematics of Chance
Chapter 8: Probability: The Mathematics of Chance November 11, 2013 Last Time Probability Models and Rules Discrete Probability Models Equally Likely Outcomes Probability Rules Probability Rules Rule 1.
More informationProbability is often written as a simplified fraction, but it can also be written as a decimal or percent.
CHAPTER 1: PROBABILITY 1. Introduction to Probability L EARNING TARGET: I CAN DETERMINE THE PROBABILITY OF AN EVENT. What s the probability of flipping heads on a coin? Theoretically, it is 1/2 1 way to
More information5 Elementary Probability Theory
5 Elementary Probability Theory 5.1 What is Probability? The Basics We begin by defining some terms. Random Experiment: any activity with a random (unpredictable) result that can be measured. Trial: one
More informationChapter 3: Elements of Chance: Probability Methods
Chapter 3: Elements of Chance: Methods Department of Mathematics Izmir University of Economics Week 34 20142015 Introduction In this chapter we will focus on the definitions of random experiment, outcome,
More informationNormal Distribution Lecture Notes Continued
Normal Distribution Lecture Notes Continued 1. Two Outcome Situations Situation: Two outcomes (for against; heads tails; yes no) p = percent in favor q = percent opposed Written as decimals p + q = 1 Why?
More informationMutually Exclusive Events
Mutually Exclusive Events Suppose you are rolling a sixsided die. What is the probability that you roll an odd number and you roll a 2? Can these both occur at the same time? Why or why not? Mutually
More informationMATH 215 DISCRETE MATHEMATICS INSTRUCTOR: P. WENG
MATH DISCRETE MATHEMATICS INSTRUCTOR: P. WENG Counting and Probability Suggested Problems Basic Counting Skills, InclusionExclusion, and Complement. (a An office building contains 7 floors and has 7 offices
More informationABC High School, Kathmandu, Nepal. Topic : Probability
BC High School, athmandu, Nepal Topic : Probability Grade 0 Teacher: Shyam Prasad charya. Objective of the Module: t the end of this lesson, students will be able to define and say formula of. define Mutually
More informationBasic Probability Models. PingShou Zhong
asic Probability Models PingShou Zhong 1 Deterministic model n experiment that results in the same outcome for a given set of conditions Examples: law of gravity 2 Probabilistic model The outcome of the
More informationElementary Statistics. Basic Probability & Odds
Basic Probability & Odds What is a Probability? Probability is a branch of mathematics that deals with calculating the likelihood of a given event to happen or not, which is expressed as a number between
More informationINDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT EVENTS UNIT 6: PROBABILITY DAY 2
INDEPENDENT AND DEPENDENT EVENTS UNIT 6: PROBABILITY DAY 2 WARM UP Students in a mathematics class pick a card from a standard deck of 52 cards, record the suit, and return the card to the deck. The results
More information