Predictions from machine learning ensembles: marine bird distribution and density on Canada s Pacific coast

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1 The following supplement accompanies the article Predictions from machine learning ensembles: marine bird distribution and density on Canada s Pacific coast C. H. Fox*, F. H. Huettmann, G. K. A. Harvey, K. H. Morgan, J. Robinson, R. Williams, P. C. Paquet *Corresponding author: carolinehfox@gmail.com Marine Ecology Progress Series 566: (2017) Supplement. Table S1. List of all marine, coastal and land bird species sighted during line transect surveys of the coastal British Columbia study area ( ), including on transect and on passage survey effort. Common name, genus and species, taxonomic serial numbers (TSN) and AviBase ID are included. Where genus or species differed between taxonomic sources, IUCN taxonomy was used. Certain species are grouped due to difficulties distinguishing species in the field. Order, Family & Common Name Scientific Name TSN Avibase ID Number of Individuals (on water) Number of Individuals (in flight) Marine Birds Accipitriformes Accipitridae Bald eagle Haliaeetus leucocephalus FED3756C12Cf67FA 0 68 Accipitriformes Pandionidae Osprey Pandion haliaetus BCF ED3D3 0 1 Anseriformes Anatidae Goldeneye (Barrow s and common) Bucephala islandica/b / 9456DEDF7E1AADF3/ 2 0 clangula EA281AF74846D2 Brant Branta bernicla E04020B54C14FCC Bufflehead Bucephala albeola FB D0DB2EA 15 0 Canada goose Branta canadensis B59E18633E2EFD Common merganser Mergus merganser E2CA886367DBB Harlequin duck Histrionicus histrionicus BCBD2EAECA774B Long-tailed duck Clangula hyemalis AF0C7BDEC7CEBAAC Mallard Anas platyrhynchos D75F Northern shoveler Spatula clypeata ED4CE8E7CFF Red-breasted Mergus serrator DB64266A42FC19B merganser Snow goose Anser caerulescens D3A260BCA65503C Black scoter Melanitta americana B7B1A5DD94724A Surf scoter Melanitta perspicillata BAC17F White-winged scoter Melanitta deglandi FB19D46391C Unidentified scoter Melanitta spp Charadriiformes Alcidae Ancient murrelet Synthliboramphus antiquus ACA4FEFE451B4BD Cassin s auklet Ptychoramphus aleuticus CF6D6F60FAD0DE Common murre Uria aalge F29B55EF9A542F Horned puffin Fratercula corniculata FA5AE00A5DB 2 0 Marbled murrelet Brachyramphus marmoratus F29B55EF9A542F Pigeon guillemot Cepphus columba F5DF476344AEA Rhinoceros auklet Cerorhinca monocerata D94597DFB84ECB Tufted puffin Fratercula cirrhata F BC9C8FD Unidentified alcid Charadriiformes Haematopodidae Black oystercatcher Haematopus bachmani BD49DB466CE6B Charadriiformes Laridae California gull Larus californicus FCE8A431E5E5ECB 3 2 Glaucous-winged gull Larus glaucescens AC32BA532FB6E

2 Order, Family & Common Name Scientific Name TSN Avibase ID Number of Individuals (on water) Number of Individuals (in flight) American herring gull/ Larus smithsonianus/ / 60F32AF8F5E3E40B/ Thayer s gull L. thayeri E A39A Unidentified large gull Larus spp Black-legged kittiwake Rissa tridactyla FB4D08F0837D Bonaparte s gull Larus philadelphia E2A88E Mew gull Larus canus DA9D Sabine s gull Xema sabini B476B 0 31 Unidentified tern Charadriiformes Scolopacidae Black turnstone Arenaria melanocephala ED F9 2 0 Dunlin Calidris alpina E8EB4CBD Red-necked phalarope Phalaropus lobatus E6F3BA FB Whimbrel Numenius phaeopus F3A63A99AEDD4 0 5 Unidentified shorebird Charadriiformes Stercorariidae Long-tailed jaeger Stercorarius longicaudus D EC9FD Parasitic jaeger Stercorarius parasiticus E9EAFEB3 3 7 Pomarine jaeger Stercorarius pomarinus CB8F5B711DE64D0 1 5 Unidentified jaeger Stercorarius spp Coraciiformes Alcedinidae Belted kingfisher Megaceryle alcyon B4F7EEB8E 0 3 Gaviiformes Gaviidae Common loon Gavia immer E E9A Pacific loon Gavia pacifica B7D7EF2398F Red-throated loon Gavia stellata C50988A5445ED Yellow-billed loon Gavia adamsii DB Unidentified loon Gavia spp Pelecaniformes Ardeinae Great blue heron Ardea herodias BB5492F Pelecaniformes Phalacrocoracidae Brandt s cormorant Phalacrocorax penicillatus A703D5E0271A Double-crested Phalacrocorax auritus AC46C54EE4A cormorant Pelagic cormorant Phalacrocorax pelagicus A429B5B8397A Unidentified cormorant Phalacrocorax spp Podicipediformes Podicipedidae Horned grebe Podiceps auritus B316959E Red-necked grebe Podiceps grisegena CBD2CED48B674A Western grebe Aechmophorus occidentalis C6E1197BE78E2E Unidentified grebe Procellariiformes Diomedeidae Black-footed albatross Phoebastria nigripes EE8ECB1D8652F Laysan albatross Phoebastria immutabilis FB6D4B93E4E0BC 0 1 Short-tailed albatross Phoebastria albatrus B5565AD8DCC8C1BA 1 0 Procellariiformes Procellariidae Fork-tailed stormpetrel Hydrobates furcatus DD814006A4A3863F Leach s storm-petrel Hydrobates leucorhous E BE5C Northern fulmar Fulmarus glacialis D9AEA4AFBFDFA Buller s shearwater Ardenna bulleri F9C AA Pink-footed shearwater Ardenna creatopus A77D2B0EFBE0CBB Dark shearwaters (flesh-footed, shorttailed, sooty) Ardenna carneipes/ A. tenuirostris/ A. grisea / / F22F8404DCC0D2/ 60825BF / 1725B07D51A40D6A Land Birds Apodiformes Trochilidae Rufous hummingbird Selasphorus rufus E1B6D193325DFB6 0 1 Passeriformes Corvidae Common raven Corvus corax B9B272F40EE1570F 0 3 Northwestern crow Corvus caurinus F784967D3BE Passeriformes Emberizidae Dark-eyed junco Junco hyemalis FF3C9B3C854D Passeriformes Parulidae Townsend s warbler Dendroica townsendi F6C6C3F7E27ED

3 Table S2. Summary of marine bird species/group multiple covariates distance sampling (MCDS) analyses, including width of detection (m), model selected (hazard rate (hz) or half-normal (hn)), covariates included, sighting number used for the detection function, g(x), and the density estimate (target sightings on transect only). Marine bird information was obtained from line transect surveys in coastal British Columba, Canada ( ). Scoters Target On water/ in flight water g(x) White-winged, black, surf and unidentified scoters Width (m) Model Covariates g(x) N Abundance N 100 hn size, month Ancient murrelet water Ancient murrelet 72 hz sightability, month Cassin s auklet water Cassin s muklet 80 hz size, sightability, survey, month Common murre water Common murre 100 hz size, sightability, survey Marbled murrelet water Marbled murrelet 49 hz size, month Pigeon guillemot water Pigeon guillemot 90 hz month, survey Rhinoceros auklet water Rhinoceros auklet 130 hz size, survey, sightability Tufted puffin water Tufted puffin 80 hz sightability Herring, Thayer s Large gulls water California, glaucouswinged and unidentified sightability size, survey, 210 hz large gulls Large gulls Small gulls Small gulls flight water flight Herring, Thayer s California, glaucouswinged and unidentified large gulls Black kittiwake and Bonaparte s, mew and Sabine s gulls Black kittiwake and Bonaparte s, mew and Sabine s gulls 150 hz survey, sightability hz sightability hn sightability Red-necked phalarope water Red-necked phalarope 55 hz survey Red-necked phalarope flight Red-necked phalarope 50 hn size Loons water Common, yellow-billed, size, red-throated, Pacific and 140 hz sightability unidentified loons Brandt s, double-crested, Cormorants pelagic and unidentified 150 hn sightability water cormorants Red-necked, western, Grebes water horned, and unidentified 80 hn size grebes Black-footed albatross water Black-footed albatross, unidentified albatross 250 hz size Black-footed albatross flight Black-footed albatross 400 hz size Fork-tailed storm-petrel water Fork-tailed and Leach s storm-petrels 72 hn sightability Fork-tailed storm-petrel flight Fork-tailed storm-petrel 125 hz survey Leach s storm-petrel water Fork-tailed and Leach s storm-petrels 72 hn sightability Leach s storm-petrel flight Leach s storm-petrel 150 hz survey, sightability Northern fulmar water Northern fulmar 85 hz survey, month Northern fulmar flight Northern fulmar 100 hz survey, month Pink-footed shearwater Pink-footed shearwater water flight Pink-footed and dark shearwaters Pink-footed and dark shearwaters 150 hz size, survey, sightability hz size, survey

4 Target Dark shearwaters Dark shearwaters On water/ in flight water flight g(x) Sooty, Short-tailed and Flesh-footed shearwaters Sooty, short-tailed and slesh-footed shearwaters Width (m) Model 150 hz Covariates size, survey, sightability g(x) N Abundance N hz size, survey

5 Table S3. Density and distribution model performance summary statistics for scoters (on water), ancient murrelet (on water), common murre (on water), marbled murrelet (on water), pigeon guillemot (on water), tufted puffin (on water), large gulls (in flight and on water), small gulls (in flight and on water), loons (on water), cormorants (on water), grebes (on water), fork-tailed storm-petrel (in flight and on water), Leach s storm-petrel (in flight and on water), northern fulmar (in flight and on water), northern fulmar 2 (on water), pink-footed shearwater (in flight and on water), dark shearwaters (in flight and on water) and dark shearwaters 2 (on water), including root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean-square error (MSE), r 2 normalized using Random Forests (RF), TreeNet (TN), Multivariate Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) and Classification and Regression Trees (CART). Model performance was evaluated using Out-Of-Bag (RF) and crossvalidation (TN, MARS and CART). Marine bird information was obtained from line transect surveys in coastal British Columba, Canada ( ). Model Performance Summary Statistics Common Name RF TN MARS CART Scoters RMSE MSE R 2 norm Ancient murrelet RMSE MSE R 2 norm Common murre RMSE MSE R 2 norm Marbled murrelet RMSE MSE R 2 norm Pigeon guillemot RMSE MSE R 2 norm Rhinoceros auklet RMSE MSE R 2 norm Tufted puffin RMSE MSE R 2 norm Large gulls RMSE MSE R 2 norm Small gulls RMSE MSE R 2 norm Loons RMSE MSE R 2 norm Cormorants RMSE MSE R 2 norm Grebes RMSE MSE R 2 norm Fork-tailed storm-petrel RMSE MSE R 2 norm

6 Model Performance Summary Statistics Common Name RF TN MARS CART Leach s storm-petrel RMSE MSE R 2 norm Northern fulmar RMSE MSE R 2 norm Northern fulmar 2 RMSE MSE R 2 norm Pink-footed shearwater RMSE MSE R 2 norm Dark shearwaters RMSE MSE R 2 norm Dark shearwaters 2 RMSE MSE R 2 norm Table S4. Density and distribution model rank variable importance (Var. Rank) and relative importance (% Imp.) for scoters (on water), ancient murrelet (on water), common murre (on water), marbled murrelet (on water), pigeon guillemot (on water), tufted puffin (on water), large gulls (in flight and on water), small gulls (in flight and on water), loons (on water), cormorants (on water), grebes (on water), fork-tailed storm-petrel (in flight and on water), Leach s storm-petrel (in flight and on water), northern fulmar (in flight and on water), northern fulmar 2 (on water), pink-footed shearwater (in flight and on water), dark shearwaters (in flight and on water) and dark shearwaters 2 (on water), using Random Forests (RF), TreeNet (TN), Multivariate Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) and Classification and Regression Trees (CART). RF TN MARS CART Rank Var. Rank % Imp. Var. Rank % Imp. Var. Rank % Imp. Var. Rank % Imp. Scoters 1 Distance to Distance to Bathymetry Bathymetry Longitude Month Tidal Distance to front Bathymetry Bathymetry Distance to Distance to coast Distance to coast Tidal Month Ruggedness Distance to SSHD Longitude Distance to Distance to Distance to town Wind Tidal Distance to town Ruggedness Ruggedness Slope Tidal Distance to Longitude Latitude SST Distance to Distance to shelf Distance to shelf SSHD Ancient murrelet 1 Latitude Distance to LT-SST SST Season Ruggedness Month Ruggedness LT-SST Slope Chl-a gradient SST Distance to front Slope Month SSHA LT-SST Chl-a gradient Distance to Month

7 7 Longitude Distance to Shelf Distance to town Distance to Distance to coast Latitude Latitude Common murre 1 Distance to Distance to Latitude Longitude Distance to shelf Month Distance to coast Distance to Month Latitude Distance to Latitude Survey Distance to LT-SST Distance to Bathymetry Longitude Wind Distance to SSHA Distance to Distance to front Distance to shelf Distance to Slope Distance to coast Slope Distance to coast Distance to town Season Distance to LT-Sal Distance to coast Bathymetry SSHA 3.55 Marbled murrelet 1 Distance to Distance to Distance to LT-SST Distance to coast Month LT-SST SST SST Chl-a gradient Month Month Slope 3.00 LT-SST Distance to shelf Ruggedness 1.95 Chl-a Latitude Tidal Distance to coast Latitude Bathymetry SST Pigeon guillemot 1 Wind Distance to Distance to Distance to shelf Distance to Distance to coast Bathymetry Distance to Longitude Month Wind Wind Bathymetry Bathymetry Distance to town Distance to shelf Wind Longitude Distance to town Longitude LT-Sal Latitude Distance to town Distance to Distance to coast SSHA Tidal SST Distance to Slope Latitude Rhinoceros auklet 1 Bathymetry Month Bathymetry Chl-a Latitude Survey LT-Sal Bathymetry LT-Sal Distance to coast Distance to Distance to shelf Distance to shelf Distance to Distance to shelf Longitude Chl-a 9.02 Ruggedness LT-SST Distance to Survey 4.45 Bathymetry SST Distance to front Chl-a Distance to coast LT-Sal Distance to Month Distance to Distance to shelf Tidal LT-SST Distance to front Month Tufted puffin 1 Latitude Distance to Distance to Distance to

8 2 SST Distance to front Ruggedness Tidal Distance to shelf Distance to Distance to Bathymetry Distance to 4.44 Month Distance to front Distance to Slope 3.03 Distance to coast Slope Distance to front Bathymetry Chl-a gradient Distance to Chl-a Tidal Latitude Chl-a Large gulls 1 Chl-a Month Month Distance to coast Distance to coast FPI Bathymetry Distance to town Distance to Distance to Distance to SST Distance to SSHA Slope Distance to Slope Chl-a Latitude FPI Distance to Month LT-Sal Survey Distance to front Season Small gulls 1 Distance to Month LT-Sal Chl-a gradient Tidal Distance to coast Ruggedness LT-SST Chl-a gradient Tidal Distance to coast Chl-a SST Distance to coast LT-Sal Chl-a gradient Chl-a Distance to Distance to town Loons 1 Chl-a gradient Bathymetry LT-SST LT-SST LT-SST Bathymetry SST Ruggedness Distance to Bathymetry Month Slope Latitude Latitude Chl-a gradient Month Distance to town Distance to Distance to Distance to SST Ruggedness Chl-a gradient Chl-a gradient Slope SSHD Cormorants 1 Distance to Ruggedness Ruggedness Distance to 2 Latitude Distance to Distance to town Distance to front Chl-a Month Bathymetry Distance to coast SSHA 3.03 LT-SST Slope Longitude Distance to

9 10 Distance to 8.22 Grebes 1 Bathymetry Bathymetry Bathymetry Distance to coast Distance to coast Tidal 6.16 Tidal Month Bathymetry Longitude Distance to Distance to Distance to Distance to town Latitude Distance to Distance to shelf Tidal LT-Sal Chl-a Longitude Latitude Fork-tailed storm-petrel 1 Distance to coast Bathymetry SST Distance to coast Distance to Tidal FPI Bathymetry LT-SST FPI Distance to FPI Distance to front Distance to front Distance to shelf Survey Distance to Latitude Distance to coast Distance to Tidal Distance to Longitude Bathymetry 6.24 Wind Tidal Ruggedness 5.22 Distance to FPI Distance to 3.45 SST LT-SST 0.08 Leach s storm-petrel 1 Latitude LT-SST SST LT-SST LT-SST Latitude Latitude SSHD SSHD LT-SST Distance to shelf SST SSHA Cha gradient Distance to Tidal Current Latitude Distance to Distance to Bathymetry Distance to shelf SST Slope Distance to Survey Distance to Bathymetry Wind Northern fulmar 1 Month Month Month Month Distance to shelf Latitude SSHD Distance to shelf Chl-a gradient Chl-a gradient Distance to shelf Distance to front Distance to town Wind Chl-a gradient SST Chl-a SST FPI Distance to Distance to coast Chl-a Distance to Distance to town Distance to Bathymetry Slope Distance to Survey Distance to coast Chl-a Chl-a gradient Season Distance to Bathymetry Bathymetry Distance to 7.08 Distance to Ruggedness Chl-a Northern fulmar 2 1 Distance to Longitude SSHD Distance to coast

10 2 Distance to Month Month Distance to Distance to Bathymetry LT-SST Chl-a gradient Distance to town Chl-a gradient Distance to Distance to Month Wind Distance to front Ruggedness Distance to coast LT-Sal Bathymetry Distance to Bathymetry Distance to coast LT-Sal Distance to Distance to shelf Chl-a Chl-a Longitude Ruggedness Pink-footed shearwater 1 Slope Slope SSHD SSHD Latitude LT-SST Distance to town Chl-a gradient Distance to coast Survey SST Slope SSHA Distance to front SST Year Bathymetry Chl-a gradient Latitude Distance to SSHA Season LT-SST Month SSHA LT-SST Distance to coast SST 9.94 Dark shearwaters 1 Chl-a gradient Tidal Bathymetry Chl-a gradient Chl-a Chl-a Distance to Distance to coast Bathymetry Month Month Tidal Distance to coast Bathymetry SSHA Distance to Distance to Wind Tidal Bathymetry Distance to Distance to coast Chl-a gradient Distance to Distance to Longitude SST Distance to town Tidal Chl-a gradient LT-Sal 6.08 Ruggedness Distance to town Slope LT-SST LT-SST Distance to Month 7.22 Dark shearwaters 2 1 Chl-a gradient Month Month Distance to front Distance to Bathymetry SSHA Bathymetry Bathymetry Ruggedness Latitude Distance to coast Tidal SST Tidal Distance to town Slope Slope LT-Sal Distance to Chl-a Distance to coast Bathymetry Distance to Longitude 7.51 Chl-a gradient SSHD FPI 7.05 Latitude Latitude 0.92 Tidal Longitude

bathymetry (m), (B) slope (degrees), (C) ruggedness (proportion), (D) distance to coast (m), (E)

11 Fig. S1. Static environmental predictors used for ensemble modeling of marine bird species/groups: (A) bathymetry (m), (B) slope (degrees), (C) ruggedness (proportion), (D) distance to coast (m), (E) distance to (m), (F) tidal (m s -1 ), (G) distance to, marsh or lagoon (m), (H) distance to (m), (I) distance to continental shelf (m), (J) distance to town (m), (K) distance to (m); ancient murrelet example). 11

12 Fig. S2. Dynamic and long-term (climatological) environmental predictors used for ensemble modeling of marine bird species/groups: (A) Chlorophyll-a (mg m -3 ), (B) Chlorophyll-a gradient (proportion), (C) sea surface temperature ( C), (D) distance to front (m), (E) front probability index (proportion), (F) sea surface wind speed (m s -1 ), (G) sea surface height (m), (H) sea surface height deviation (m), (I) long-term salinity (ppm), (J) long-term sea surface temperature ( C). 12

13 Fig. S3. Detection functions, g(x), and quantile-quantile (q-q) plots for 20 target marine bird species and groups using Multiple Covariates Distance Sampling (MCDS). Marine bird information was obtained from line transect surveys in coastal British Columba, Canada ( ). 13

14 Fig. S3 cont. Detection functions, g(x), and quantile-quantile (q-q) plots for 20 target marine bird species and groups using Multiple Covariates Distance Sampling (MCDS). Marine bird information was obtained from line transect surveys in coastal British Columba, Canada ( ). 14

15 Fig. S3 cont. Detection functions, g(x), and quantile-quantile (q-q) plots for 20 target marine bird species and groups using Multiple Covariates Distance Sampling (MCDS). Marine bird information was obtained from line transect surveys in coastal British Columba, Canada ( ). 15

16 Fig. S4. Seasonal (spring, summer and fall) predicted density (birds km -2 ) ensemble model (i), with associated ensemble model variance (ii) for (A) scoters (white-winged, surf and black scoters; on water), (B) ancient murrelet (on water) and (C) common murre (on water). Ensemble models incorporate Random Forests (RF), TreeNet (TN), Multivariate Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) and Classification and Regression Trees (CART). Black circles represent bird densities (birds km -2 ) along transect lines, estimated using Distance Sampling. Marine bird information was obtained from line transect surveys in coastal British Columba, Canada ( ). 16

17 Fig. S5. Seasonal (spring, summer and fall) predicted density (birds km -2 ) ensemble model (i), with associated ensemble model variance (ii) for (A) marbled murrelet (on water), (B) pigeon guillemot (on water) and (C) rhinoceros auklet (on water). Ensemble models incorporate Random Forests (RF), TreeNet (TN), Multivariate Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) and Classification and Regression Trees (CART). Black circles represent bird densities (birds km -2 ) along transect lines, estimated using Distance Sampling. Marine bird information was obtained from line transect surveys in coastal British Columba, Canada ( ). 17

18 Fig. S6. Seasonal (spring, summer and fall) predicted density (birds km -2 ) ensemble model (i), with associated ensemble model variance (ii) for (A) tufted puffin (on water) (B) large gulls (California, glaucous-winged, herring, and Thayer s; in flight and on water), and (C) small gulls (black-legged kittiwake, Bonaparte s, mew, and Sabine s; in flight and on water). Ensemble models incorporate Random Forests (RF), TreeNet (TN), Multivariate Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) and Classification and Regression Trees (CART). Black circles represent bird densities (birds km -2 ) along transect lines, estimated using Distance Sampling. Marine bird information was obtained from line transect surveys in coastal British Columba, Canada ( ). 18

19 Fig. S7. Seasonal (spring, summer and fall) predicted density (birds km -2 ) ensemble model (i), with associated ensemble model variance (ii) for (A) loons (Common, Pacific, red-throated, and yellow-billed; on water), (B) cormorants (Brandt s, double-crested, and pelagic; on water) and (C) grebes (horned, red-necked, and western; on water). Ensemble models incorporate Random Forests (RF), TreeNet (TN), Multivariate Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) and Classification and Regression Trees (CART). Black circles represent bird densities (birds km -2 ) along transect lines, estimated using Distance Sampling. Marine bird information was obtained from line transect surveys in coastal British Columba, Canada ( ). 19

20 Fig. S8. Seasonal (spring, summer and fall) predicted density (birds km -2 ) ensemble model (i), with associated ensemble model variance (ii) for (A) fork-tailed storm-petrel (in flight and on water), (B) Leach s storm-petrel (in flight and on water) and (C) northern fulmar (in flight and on water). Ensemble models incorporate Random Forests (RF), TreeNet (TN), Multivariate Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) and Classification and Regression Trees (CART). Black circles represent bird densities (birds km -2 ) along transect lines, estimated using Distance Sampling. Marine bird information was obtained from line transect surveys in coastal British Columba, Canada ( ). 20

21 Fig. S9. Seasonal (spring, summer and fall) predicted density (birds km -2 ) ensemble model (i), with associated ensemble model variance (ii) for (A) northern fulmar (on water), (B) pink-footed shearwater (in flight and on water) and (C) dark Shearwaters (flesh-footed, short-tailed, and sooty; in flight and on water). Ensemble models incorporate Random Forests (RF), TreeNet (TN), Multivariate Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) and Classification and Regression Trees (CART). Black circles represent bird densities (birds km -2 ) along transect lines, estimated using Distance Sampling. Marine bird information was obtained from line transect surveys in coastal British Columba, Canada ( ). 21

22 Fig. S10. Seasonal (spring, summer and fall) predicted density (birds km -2 ) ensemble model (i), with associated ensemble model variance (ii) for (A) dark Shearwaters (flesh-footed, short-tailed, and sooty; on water). Ensemble models incorporate Random Forests (RF), TreeNet (TN), Multivariate Adaptive Regressive Splines (MARS) and Classification and Regression Trees (CART). Black circles represent bird densities (birds km -2 ) along transect lines, estimated using Distance Sampling. 22

Rat Island. RAT 081, AD, MNI Jaegers RAT 081, AD, MNI RAT 031, BP. Little Kiska.

Rat Island. RAT 081, AD, MNI Jaegers RAT 081, AD, MNI RAT 031, BP. Little Kiska. 022, 1700 1000 280 081, Jaegers 7 1 4 2 Alcid 2001 6 44 65 8 all times 146 38 15 2 42 19 205 534 10 081, 890, Bridge 600 350, Ancient murrelet Synthliboramphus antiquus 1157 107 78 17 16 308 41 10 17 12