Long-Term Planning in Singapore. Soulbreath Consulting

Transcription

1 Long-Term Planning in Singapore Soulbreath Consulting

2 The Impetus Long-term view since independence Causes: Sense of fragility; resource scarcity Enablers: First-generation leadership orientation; stable political environment 2

3 The Impetus: Examples Major national policies designed with long-term timeframes Land use Retirement Savings Education & skills Marriage & Procreation 3

4 Evolution of National Planning and Foresight 2000s onwards: Foresight expands; shift to intentional stakeholder engagement 1980s and 90s: Shaped by civil servants; foresight begins with scenario planning 1960s and 70s: Led by political leadership 4

5 Scenario Planning A structured process of developing alternative and plausible stories about the future, to help rehearse responses, deepen learning and strengthen strategy robustness Scenario 2 Today Scenario 1 Future Scenario 3 5

6 Scenario Planning: Examples Institute of Policy Studies: Prism Scenarios SingaStore.com Governance: Pro-business. Big biz, MNCs, emerging technologies boost growth and wages. Distribution: Affluent thrive; strong social support; high GDP and Gini Values: Material. More support for those with more economic potential SingaGives.gov Governance: Important public goods nationalised; funded through reserves Distribution: Human services thrive; low but inclusive growth; foreign businesses wait and see. Values: Social solidarity; equal access to dignified life and well-being Questions? WikiCity.sg Governance: Coalition govt focused on external and security functions. Distribution: Communities meet needs. Traditional MNCs leave. High economic potential and some promising enterprises. Values: Self activating, self correcting, identity-based communities 6

7 Scenario Planning: Examples Ministry of Manpower: SharedFuture Scenarios PSGX2016/05A%20Day%201%20MOM%20Future%20Scenarios% pdf 7

8 Evolution of National Planning and Foresight 2000s onwards: Foresight expands; shift to intentional stakeholder engagement 1980s and 90s: Shaped by civil servants; foresight begins with scenario planning 1960s and 70s: Led by political leadership 8

9 Foresight: Examples Centre for Strategic Futures: Driving Forces Cards HUMAN AUGMENTATION WHERE WE ARE CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE GLOBAL CARBON REGIME WHERE WEAS ARE PEOPLE WHERE WE IN ARE AGEING BUSINESSES SINGAPORE Human augmentation technologies are those that make Studies indicate that global warming will cause rising Instead of working full-time for a single employer, humans better, either by restoring an impaired function to sea levels and more extreme weather individuals can increasingly sell skills or expertise average levels, or by raising it beyond the norm for humans Second-order effects on food chains, biodiversity and by time or by job (e.g. project or task) WHERE W By 2035, and abov An ageing Examples include cognitive-enhancing drugs (nootropics), even disease patterns are not well understood, but will The sharing economy offers opportunities to monetise hinder ec bionic limbs and eyes, genetic screening to select for almost certainly be disruptive under-utilised assets (e.g. leasing out spare rooms), Families a desirable traits and robotic suits with industrial and The post-2020 global climate agreement was concludedand create new markets for goods and services military applications (e.g. enabling more people to rent a room) in Paris to keep warming below 2 oc WHAT W WHAT WE KNOW Public sp and infra In some instances, it is cheaper to hire contract workers With large research investments from major national and Climate change is likely to intensify environmental and than salaried ones and use newer and unconventional Improvem corporate players, human augmentation technologies socio-political stresses, and even destabilise countries (e.g. tomorrow services over established businesses (e.g. AirBnB look set to grow dramatically in efficacy and fall food and water shortages, disease and climate refugees) The futur accommodation, versus hotels) dramatically in price As an island-state, Singapore is vulnerable to the effects of and finan People may choose to have a portfolio of different For example, the price for sequencing a person s genomeclimate change rainfall patterns are already more volatile individual tasks for pay, instead of holding a secure jobpower an fell from US$95 million in 2001 to just over US$1,000 in Singapore pledged in the 2015 Paris Agreement to cut , paving the way for genetic screening and selective As work-matching and asset-sharing platforms become emissions intensity by 36% from 2005 levels and reduce WHAT W modification in the mainstream more important, there will be great demand for deep overall emissions from 2030 expertise to design such systems Can socie WHAT WE DON T KNOW urban env WHAT WE DON T KNOW WHAT WE KNOW FUTURE OF TECHNOLOGY TECHNOLOGIES THAT MAKE US BETTER THAN HUMAN COULD RADICALLY TRANSFORM OUR LIVES WHAT WE KNOW How will economic, political and ethical issues affect How will global cooperation progress in reality? Will the degree of adoption of and access to human Singapore be held to greater commitments over time? augmentation technologies? FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FUTURE OF THE ECONOMY rules and pressure affect How might international As new technologies overtake human capabilities, which Singapore s competitiveness? CARBON CONSTRAINTS WILLwill RESHAPE NEW WORK economic ARRANGEMENTS set of human skills and traits remain relevant in THE WORLD, BUT MAY NOT AVERT THE MAY REPLACE MANY TRADITIONAL the workplace? Will skills and traits such as empathy, What if climate changerelationships projections exceed worstworst CONSEQUENCES EMPLOYEE-EMPLOYER integrity and the ability to connect matter more? case scenarios? WHAT WE DON T KNOW How pervasive will new work arrangements be? Can the e new cons ageing de FUTURE OFbe SINGAPOREAN SOCIETY Will there more frequent bouts of underemployment How will or unemployment those who no longer hold a single, institutio AGEING PRESENTSfor NEW OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR SOCIETY AND full time job? Can a new GOVERNANCE How will citizens respond to new labour arrangements? emerging 9

10 Foresight: Examples Centre for Strategic Futures: Emerging Strategic Issues What if marriage went out of fashion? Would you work in Visakhapatnam? Are insects the future of food? What if a drug could make you more productive? Do we still need banks? Can you build a business with this? 10

11 Approaches to Foresight Adaptive school Your name See the world as it is, not as you wish it to be. What you do Assumption: You have little Your chosen picture control/influence over outcomes. Describe it what do you see? Aspirational school The best way to predict the future is to create it. Assumption: You have some control/influence over outcomes. Interpret it what does it say about your hope/aspiration for life in Approach: Think about what the Singapore future might in 2040? be (probable/plausible), then adapt yourself to it. Approach: Think about what future you desire (preferred), then make it happen. 11

12 Foresight: Examples 1999 The Report of the Remaking Singapore Committee CHANGING MINDSETS, DEEPENING RELATIONSHIPS

13 Contribution of foresight Shared mindset and language Culture that is hospitable to new ideas and innovation 13

14 Challenge of foresight Relevance: Translating foresight into public policy Reach: Shifting from elite process to broad engagement 14

15 CONTACT INFORMATION Dawn Yip Web: 15