The Impact of Automation and Robotics on the Workforce

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Iris Jennings
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Automation and Robotics on the Workforce The Voice of

1 Stephen Catt, EdD, Deputy Director, EWD Suzy Teele, Head of Marketing & Communications //// The Impact of Automation and Robotics on the Workforce The Voice of Business - CareerSource Pinellas and CareerSource Tampa Bay December 7, 2017

3 ARM s mission is to be the leading catalyst of robotics innovation and expertise, accelerating growth in U.S.- based manufacturing and high value careers.

Part of the Manufacturing USA Network Lightweight Metals Detroit, MI Advanced Robotics Pittsburgh, PA

Fibers and Textiles, Cambridge MA Flexible Hybrid Electronics San Jose, CA Modular Chemical Process

DE Green states have major participants in Manufacturing USA Institutes Digital Manufacturing & Design

4 Part of the Manufacturing USA Network Lightweight Metals Detroit, MI Advanced Robotics Pittsburgh, PA Integrated Photonics Rochester, NY Recycling Materials Rochester, NY Tissue Biofabrication, Manchester, NH Fibers and Textiles, Cambridge MA Flexible Hybrid Electronics San Jose, CA Modular Chemical Process Intensification New York, NY Clean Energy Smart Manufacturing Los Angeles, CA Bio-Pharma Manufacturing Newark, DE Green states have major participants in Manufacturing USA Institutes Digital Manufacturing & Design Chicago, IL Fiber-Reinforced Polymer Composites Knoxville, TN Additive Manufacturing Youngstown, OH Wide Bandgap Semiconductors Raleigh, NC

ARM Institute Formation Robotics powerhouse Carnegie Mellon University led effort to establish ARM Separate non-profit entity Currently co-located with

5 ARM Institute Formation Robotics powerhouse Carnegie Mellon University led effort to establish ARM Separate non-profit entity Currently co-located with Carnegie Mellon s National Robotics Engineering Center (NREC) Established: Jan 13, 2017 Location: Pittsburgh, PA Federal Funding: $80M Industry Cost Share: $173M

6 ARM was Formed to Help with These Challenges National security issues Important products (electronics, clothing, etc) are manufactured primarily outside of the United States Lack of skilled workers Top issue for many manufacturers Mismatch between current skill sets and current job openings Potentially not enough educational programs to re-skill for robotics/automation careers Robots and automation are generally custom implementations Lack of common and easy-to-implement software and hardware components Real/Perceived shortage of valuable middle-class jobs US no longer dominant in manufacturing on a global basis Manufacturing (and trades in general) not perceived as good career path for young people

ARM Will Bridge Gaps and Empower Workers 1 Assert US leadership in advanced robotics manufacturing 2 Lower the technical, operational, and economic barriers for companies

7 ARM Will Bridge Gaps and Empower Workers 1 Assert US leadership in advanced robotics manufacturing 2 Lower the technical, operational, and economic barriers for companies to adopt robotics technologies 3 Empower American workers to be costcompetitive with lowwage workers abroad 4 Aid in creation and sustenance of valuable manufacturing jobs

8 ARM Pursuing Mission on Three Fronts Technology development Workforce development Building the right ecosystem

9 Driving Impact Across a Number of Sectors Including Aerospace Automotive Electronics Food & beverage Logistics Textiles & apparel Composites

10 Investment Helping to Bridge US Manufacturing Innovation Gap Basic manufacturing research Proof of concept Laboratory production Capacity to produce prototype Capability in production environment Production rate demonstration Government and universities INNOVATION GAP Private Sector Manufacturing innovation process

11 Driving Impact through our Members Member-based, nonprofit consortium Eight (8) membership levels from start-up/nonprofits to platinum About 120 members today in manufacturing, academia, technology and economic development

Membership Benefits Network with broad membership from industry, academia and government Influence roadmapping Lead and participate in project proposals Access Consortium-Developed

12 Membership Benefits Network with broad membership from industry, academia and government Influence roadmapping Lead and participate in project proposals Access Consortium-Developed Intellectual Property Access ARM Institute expertise Access shared R&D infrastructure Access workforce training expertise Help influence young people to chose manufacturing careers

13 A Diverse and Influential Membership

14 Driving Local Impact through Regional Collaboratives Collaborative collections of members associate with one of 8 regions in the country to extend ARM s reach locally Provide insight and support for robotics technology and educational needs

15 State of Industry Technology ////

16 Fear of Tech Stealing Jobs has been Constant for ~500 Years "I have too much regard for the poor women to forward an invention [an automated knitting machine] which, by depriving them of employment, would reduce them to starvation." Queen Elizabeth I "The automatic machine is the precise equivalent of slave labor. Any labor which competes with slave labor must accept the economic conditions of slave labor." Norbert Wiener, MIT "There will be fewer and fewer jobs that a robot cannot do better [than a human]. These are simply things that I think probably will happen. Elon Musk Late 16 th century We are being afflicted with a new disease of which some readers may not yet have heard the name technological unemployment. John Maynard Keynes As machines continue to invade society, it is human labor itself that is gradually rendered redundant." Robert Heilbronner, New School

17 Manufacturing Jobs Reached Peak around

18 Since 1990, US Manufacturing Growing at <50% the Rate of Rest of World Manufacturing contribution to GDP 1 ($B) 10,000 8,000 6,000 Rest of World (excl. US) +4.1% US growing at 48% the rate of rest of world 4,000 2,000 United States +2.0% Manufacturing contribution to GDP is total value add, defined as total manufacturing revenue minus all direct and indirect costs and components. Source: Oxford Economics, 2017

19 Several Factors Converging to Make U.S. More Attractive Place to Manufacture

20 What Role Does Robotics Play?

21 Business Case for Robotics Continues to Improve

22 By 2025, ~25% of Manufacturing Tasks will be Automated through Robotics, Driving ~16% in Global Labor-Cost Savings South Korea Japan Canada United States Taiwan United Kingdom Germany Australia Czech Republic Global total Thailand Poland France Switzerland Belgium Italy Russia Sweden Indonesia Labor-cost savings from adoption of advanced industrial robots (%, 2025) Average global labor-cost savings ~16% China 1 Netherlands Brazil Austria Spain Mexico India US is positioned to experience significant labor cost saving through robotics 1China figures based on YRD region. Sources: STAN Bilateral Trade Database, US Bureau of Labor Statistics, BCG analysis

Improving Tech Allows Robotics to be Applied in New Ways 1 2 3 4 5 Enhanced object manipulation Mobility & operation in

, chairs that move, people) and learn from their environment Processes can be designed to optimally use both human operators

23 Improving Tech Allows Robotics to be Applied in New Ways Enhanced object manipulation Mobility & operation in changing spaces Human-robot collaboration Machine perception Machine learning & controls Robots can pick up objects that are not precisely aligned and place them correctly Robots can find their way around non-fixed objects (e.g., chairs that move, people) and learn from their environment Processes can be designed to optimally use both human operators and robots concurrently Machine perception enables versatile, flexible systems that can improve accuracy in various environments Offers opportunities to optimize processes / continuously improve Source: Rethink Robotics, "Robots that can adapt like animals," Nature.com; ARM Institute

2 A study across 17 countries found that robots increased wages while having no significant effect on total hours worked.

24 Robots Create Jobs by Increasing Productivity Change is inevitable and good for net jobs 1 The U.S. automotive industry installed ~60,000 industrial robots, while automotive sector employees increased by 230,000 ( ). 2 A study across 17 countries found that robots increased wages while having no significant effect on total hours worked. Nissa Scott, 21, watching over a robotic arm stacking containers filled with merchandise at an Amazon warehouse in Florence, N.J. 3 More than 90% of jobs will not be fully automatable in the future. Instead, robots and people will work together. Sources: 1. International Federation of Robotics, OECD, 2. Graetz and Michaels 2015, 3. McKinsey Global Institute, Photo source: Nick Wingfield, As Amazon Pushes Forward With Robots, Workers Find New Roles, N.Y.Times, 9/10/2017; Photo Credit: Bryan Anselm for The New York Times

25 But Won t Succeed Without A Skilled Workforce 25

26 State of Industry Education & Workforce Development ////

27 Why Do We Have to Continuously Learn? Chinese Blessing and Curse

28 Information Overload Egyptian Roman Dark Ages Renaissance Technological Revolution Industrial Revolution Information Age Computer Age

29 Information Overload Average Mortality Rate at 35 years 45 years 80 years Human Life Spans

30 Information Overload Egyptian Roman Dark Ages Renaissance Industrial Revolution Technological Revolution Computer Age Information Age Internet Average Mortality Rate at 35 years Average Mortality Rate at 45 years Average Mortality Rate at 80 years

31 Adult Learners *Why we need to continually learn How we can learn effectively?

32 Exponential Growth of Information "Archivists estimate that the collective sum of all printed knowledge is doubling every four years. More information has been produced in the last thirty years than in the previous five thousand." Barry Diller National Forum on Information Literacy

33 Skilled Work Shortage Addressing the Skills Shortage in U.S. Manufacturing

Expect Industry 4.0 to Impact the Jobs Manufacturers Must Fill Industry 4.0 technologies drive link between workers, equipment, software, and machines.

34 Expect Industry 4.0 to Impact the Jobs Manufacturers Must Fill Industry 4.0 technologies drive link between workers, equipment, software, and machines......increasing the need for certain jobs and creating new jobs altogether IT solutions architects Robot coordinators Industrial data scientists Sales and marketing agents Digitally assisted field service engineers

35 Driving Growth and Directly Creating 900K New Industry 4.0 Jobs by 2025 Estimated # jobs directly created by Industry 4.0 through 2025 Jobs (K) 1, Refers only to functional roles directly related to managing robotics 0 Function Example job titles IT Data Scientist IT Security Expert Sale s Sales Supervisor Marketing and Comm. R&D UI/UX/HC Designer R&D Engineer Admin Finance and Controlling General Management Robotics Robot Coordinator Mechatronics Engineer Logistics Supply Planner Logistics Worker Production Production Supervisor Quality Supervisor New Industry 4.0 jobs by 2025 Jobs along all functions will be affected by Advanced Robotics Source: BLS; ONET skills data

36 Skills Required for Robotics Manufacturing General skills Social skills E.g., Coordination, persuasion Resource management skills E.g., personnel management, time management Technical skills Technical skills E.g., troubleshooting, quality control analysis, repairing Adaptive skills Basic skills facilitate learning E.g., critical thinking, mathematics Complex problem solving skills Systems skills E.g., judgment, decision making Basic skills Increasing complexity Complex skills Source: ONET Skills Data definitions, BCG analysis

Adaptive skills Job requirements Technical skills Occupations Created by Industry 4.0 will Require More Adaptive Skills Robot Coordinator Today Industry 4.

37 Adaptive skills Job requirements Technical skills Occupations Created by Industry 4.0 will Require More Adaptive Skills Robot Coordinator Today Industry 4.0 Illustrative Machine-specific training (SOPs) Less Important More Important Product-specific training Less Important More Important Engineering knowledge Less Important More Important Use of digital device/software Less Important More Important Use of virtual knowledge base Less Important More Important Source: Expert discussions; IoT Analytics; BCG "Man and Machine in Industry 4.0" Industry 4.0

Adaptive skills Job requirements Technical skills while Traditional Manufacturing Jobs will have New Skill Requirements Machine Operator

0 Illustrative Machine-specific training (SOPs) Less Important More Important Product-specific training Less Important More Important

38 Adaptive skills Job requirements Technical skills while Traditional Manufacturing Jobs will have New Skill Requirements Machine Operator Today Industry 4.0 Illustrative Machine-specific training (SOPs) Less Important More Important Product-specific training Less Important More Important Engineering knowledge Less Important More Important Use of digital device/software Less Important More Important Use of virtual knowledge base Less Important More Important Source: Expert discussions; IoT Analytics; BCG "Man and Machine in Industry 4.0" Today Industry 4.0

39 Adaptive Skills Expected to be ~20% More Critical across Top Industry 4.0 Jobs than They are in Manufacturing Today Most important skills for Industry 4.0 compared with today 1 Change in skill importance Reading Comprehension Critical Thinking Active Listening Speaking Complex Problem Solving Judgment & Decision Making Writing +20% +18% +16% +15% +26% +24% +26% Avg. increase of 20% in Skill Importance Time Management Monitoring Only skill that is not an "adaptive skill" +13% +4% Active Learning Industry 4.0 Today +32% Average skill importance rating, Skills "today" based on avg. for top 10 fastest growing jobs Note: Definition of "adaptive," "technical" and "general" skills taken from ONET classification of skill types; based on average (weighted by projected job growth) of skill importance for 28 Industry 4.0 jobs Source: ONET Skills data

g. directly operating equipment) Knowledge in technical subjects will be imperative in Industry 4.

40 While Adaptive Skills are Becoming Increasingly Important, It is also Critical to Build Relevant Technical Skills Technology Design (e.g. designing new robots for changing needs) Programming (e.g. ROS, Python, C++) Troubleshooting (e.g. debugging malfunctioning robot) Operation and Control (e.g. directly operating equipment) Knowledge in technical subjects will be imperative in Industry 4.0 / robotics Note: Based on average of skill importance for 28 Industry 4.0 jobs Source: ONET Skills data

41 High-Level Perspective on Workforce Development A Skills profile of manufacturing workforce will undergo a dramatic shift B C U.S. faces significant structural challenges, which ARM can help overcome to enable this shift, including U.S. education system offers insufficient prep for advanced mfg. careers Current workforce not prepared for continual re-skilling SMEs have limited resources to prepare workforce Negative perception of robotics and manufacturing Little coordination across advanced mfg. ecosystem Regional skills gaps that hold U.S. manufacturing back from capturing full growth potential Opportunity for ARM to play key role in U.S. workforce development

42 Six Major Challenges ARM Can Address to Prepare the U.S. Workforce for the Future of Advanced Manufacturing Regional skill gaps in manufacturing skills 6 U.S. education insufficient for advanced mfg. careers 1 2 Negative perceptions of robotics and manufacturing Little coordination between initiatives in advanced mfg Manufacturing workforce not prepared for continual re-skilling SMEs have limited resources to prepare talent ARM can use targeted actions, RRIC collaborations, or project calls to address each category

43 Two Major EWD Initiatives 1 Best Practices 2 Identified Training Gaps

44 EWD ARM Actions ARM Certified ARM Endorsed ARM Sponsored

45 Education and Workforce Development Objectives Establish an Educational Partner Network industry-recognized stackable credentials Inform, educate, and support SMEs Train, certify, and offer internships Address diversity

Education and Workforce Development ARM will support training opportunities and help create a pipeline of qualified, skilled workers Lifelong learning (K through Gray)

46 Education and Workforce Development ARM will support training opportunities and help create a pipeline of qualified, skilled workers Lifelong learning (K through Gray) Accessible and personalized learning environments Digital learning tools, virtual reality, augmented reality Programming and learning materials will be shared regionally

48 ////

ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION K2GRAY

ACCELERATING THE U.S. MANUFACTURING RENAISSANCE WITH PEOPLE AND ROBOTS. TOGETHER. ROBOTICS AND AUTOMATION K2GRAY 10/5/2018 1 Stephen Catt, Ed.D. 10/5/2018 1 ARM FORMATION Established: Jan 13, 2017 by Carnegie