Future Fit Risk Engineering 2017 Global Risk Engineering Conference

Transcription

1 Future Fit Risk Engineering 2017 Global Risk Engineering Conference May 18-19, 2017 Rochus Troger Risk Engineering Zurich Commercial Insurance

2 Agenda 1. Introduction to the technology 2. Technological & economic characteristics opportunities & limitations 3. Current & future applications of AM 4. Risk considerations from a product safety and liability perspective 2

3 1. Introduction to the technology AM is not a new technology but already 30 years old Invention of the stereo lithography in 1983 formed the basis for today s 3DP (3D printing) First application of AM technologies was in industry in the 1980s, known as rapid prototyping Technology based on an additive approach in contrast to conventional subtractive manufacturing (e.g. milling, lathing, drilling, grinding) Product is shaped by building up of material layer by layer Known to the wide public since May 2013: private user (allegedly) 3D printed an (allegedly) fully functional gun and posted the 3D data on the Internet Expiration of patents for FDM (Fused Deposition Modeling)-3DP allowed for design and manufacture of 3D printers for private users at reasonable cost 3

4 1. Introduction to the technology Major developments since the 1980 Steadily increasing number of raw material (for professional & private users) Possibility of color printing AM method of 3DP now available for private users Large hardware offering (cost for a printer starting at US$ 300) Improving availability of 3D scanner and affordable CAD (Computer Aided Design)-file software Steadily increasing number of raw material Internet help communities and online 3D CAD file sharing 4

5 1. Introduction to the technology Some of the most important methods of AM Stereo lithography Photopolymer Jetting Laser Sintering Fused Deposition Modeling FDM or (the equivalent) Fused Filament Fabrication FFF Single Jet Inkjet Three-Dimensional Printing 3DP Laser Powder Forming Laminated Object Manufacturing 5

6 1. Introduction to the technology Please note: 3DP is only one of many other additive manufacturing methods, collectively referred to as AM 3DP is kindred with Laser Sintering, some important differences are Material feeding: 3DP using inkjet-pressure cylinder with liquid binding agent instead of melting of raw material powder by laser beam Type of raw material: in 3DP mostly metal or ceramic powder particles (overall limited but cheaper raw material offering) Production speed of 3DP: higher number of layers applied per unit of time Quality of final parts: lower precision and stability of parts produced by 3DP as a consequence of the higher production speed 6

7 2. Technological characteristics opportunities Direct digital manufacturing of 3D technical designs without the need for tools or molds Change of technical product designs without significant additional cost in manufacturing Manufacturing of complex part geometries which would be difficult or impossible or very expensive in conventional manufacturing High manufacturing flexibility due to production of objects in any random order without significant additional cost Significant reduction of assembly operations by production of functionally integrated designs in one step Raw material savings because of reduced raw material scrap and raw material consumption 7

8 2. Technological characteristics limitations Restriction of manufacturing to printable materials (raw material offering is very limited) Broad lack of specific raw material quality standards Striking absence of specific quality standards e.g. for inspection and testing of parts produced Technology restricted by (large) size and (heavy) weight of parts Quality issues of final parts: inconsistent and / or inadequate precision, surface quality, strength level etc. Slow manufacturing process increasing the production time Surface finishing may cause substantial efforts (can include removal of support structures) Need for significant know-how and experience 8

9 2. Economic characteristics opportunities Acceleration and simplification of product innovation and development: Less expensive iterations and change in technical product design End products rapidly available Facilitated cooperation with customers Simplified customization and increase in complexity of products at reasonable manufacturing cost Shift from economies of scale to economies of one / of few: multiple product versions at low number of units produced may pay out Reduction or elimination of assembly steps with one-step production of functional components Technology allows for a smaller machinery pool: lower initial cost of investment and market entry barriers In the long term, reduction of competitive disadvantage of western states compared to low cost / wage countries 9

10 2. Economic characteristics limitations Product portfolio restrictions triggered by technical feasibility High marginal cost of production (raw material, energy intensity of the manufacturing process, increased production time), no economies of scale High scrap rate Need for a new overall approach in quality assurance (current concept of sample and destructive testing is not compatible with AM) Legal issues: potential collision of applicable international and / or domestic laws, incl. protection of copyright, trademark, patents, utility patents or industrial design rights (easy data misuse because technology is heavily based on electronic data processing) High level of know-how and experience required, increase of training expenses 10

11 3. Current applications of AM some examples Aircraft industry: General Electric GE: components for the Leap jet engine Airbus: titanium structural brackets for the A350 XWB aircraft Boeing: thermoplastic components for the 737, 747 and 777 commercial aircraft and several hundred components for the 787 aircraft prototype Automotive: Ford: regular use of AM in production since 1988 (e.g. engine cover for the new Mustang) Local Motors: can verifiably print a roadster within 48 hours (everything except for the drivetrain) Medical devices: U.S. hearing aid industry switched large part of production to AM 11

12 3. Current applications of AM some examples Shoes: Nike: customizable football cleats Runners Service Lab: customized running shoes Other applications: Hershey s Chocolate World: specific single product lines of chocolate for presentation purposes Festo: bionic handling assistant (adaptive gripper) to improve the efficiency in the small parts manufacturing LuXeXcel: lenses for light-emitting diodes LED 12

13 3. Future applications of AM where is the journey heading Massive increase in the number of released patents related to AM (raw material, software, equipment) as from the year 2005 Forecasts on the global use of 3DP predicting a fourfold increase in revenue between the years 2014 and 2019 Obvious trend away from manufacturing of simple 3D objects towards applications in complex areas, especially in the sectors of food and health 13

14 3. Future applications of AM where is the journey heading New applications that might sooner or later become reality: Food: printing of meat Biotechnology: development of biological structures (e.g. vaccines) Regenerative medicine: production of biocompatible biomaterials production of human organs use of information from genome sequences allowing for the manufacturing of organs many more applications in a multiplicity of areas such as civil engineering, space and aeronautics, mold and toolmaking 14

15 4. Risk considerations private users Private vs. professional use Private use of AM restricted to 3DP 3DP still too complex to become standard equipment in private households in the medium-term Still possible for private users to become manufacturers: B2B relationships with reputable industrial manufacturers fairly unlikely In contrast to B2B, emergence of B2C relationships firmly expected: Increases the risk of product safety and liability issues Shift of responsibility towards the manufacturer (cases of bodily injury and / or property damage most likely ruled under strict liability) Difficulty for the manufacturer to buy adequate insurance cover (bad risk for insurers) increasing the risk for the manufacturer, damaged 3 rd parties and possibly the society 15

16 4. Risk considerations professional / industrial use Impact on the industrial production considered much higher because of the potential of AM to: Drastically change the way products are (technically) manufactured Shift activities within the industrial production process from one tier to another, e.g. from a specialized manufacturer towards another (downstream) company with different core competencies Although unlikely, create hybrid product value chains (B2B relationships between private users [entering the production process using 3DP] and professional manufacturers) 16

17 4. Risk considerations infringement of property rights Infringement of property rights: Easy data misuse as technology is heavily based on electronic data processing Risk of collision of applicable international and / or domestic laws, incl. protection of copyright, trademark, patents, utility patents or industrial design rights leaving an uncertainty for AM suppliers and users as to what are the applicable rules 17

18 4. Risk considerations from a product liability perspective Liability for defective products: AM still not a mature technology in regular industry production: Increases the risk of product safety and liability issues Implies the so called development risk (unpredictability of [future] product defects at the time of manufacture / supply under consideration of the state of the art in science and technology) Potential health risks in conjunction with production, e.g. release of vapors and gazes, chemical characteristics of raw material Strict regulation in certain industries might help to suppress the risk of quality issues (e.g. when leading to a deferred application of AM until a time when the technology has reached the required level of maturity) As is typical for all new (manufacturing) technologies: liability insurance industry required to properly understand and assess the potential risks of products and services in AM 18

19 White Paper Additive Manufacturing Technology Insights and Implications for Product Liability Insurance April

20 Thank you Zurich Commercial Insurance 20

21 The information contained in this document is intended as a general description of certain types of services and insurance covers available to qualified customers. Zurich Insurance Company Ltd or any of its subsidiaries and its employees do not assume any liability of any kind whatsoever, resulting from the use, or reliance upon any of the information contained herein. It does not replace or complement your individual insurance policy, which is the only source for terms and conditions of your respective insurance cover. This is intended as a general description of certain types of services and insurance covers available to qualified customers through subsidiaries within the Zurich Insurance Group Ltd. including, in the United States, Zurich American Insurance Company, 1299 Zurich Way, Schaumburg, Illinois 60196, and, in Canada, Zurich Insurance Company Ltd, 100 King Street West, Toronto ON M5X 1C9, and, outside the US and Canada, Zurich Insurance Plc, Ballsbridge Park, Dublin 4, Ireland (and its EU branches), Zurich Insurance Company Ltd, Mythenquai 2, 8002 Zurich, Zurich Australian Insurance Limited, 5 Blue St., North Sydney, NSW 2060 and further entities, as required by local jurisdiction. 21