2003 ANNUAL REPORT. APEC Center for Technology Foresight Bangkok, Thailand. Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation

Transcription

1 2003 ANNUAL REPORT APEC Center for Technology Foresight Bangkok, Thailand Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation National Science and Technology Development Agency of Thailand 1

2 Contents Established as a project of the Industrial Science and Technology Working Group within APEC in 1998, the APEC Center for Technology Foresight is a network-oriented organization aiming to develop and diffuse foresight capability across the APEC region. The Center is hosted by the National Science and Technology Development Agency of Thailand. 3 Preface 4 Background 5 Objective, core competencies and scale of operation 6 Activities in 2003 APEC-wide foresight projects Multi-economy foresight training, conference and seminars Consultancies at single-economy level Promotions through Networking 22 Infrastructure Team development Web site Budget report 27 Publications 29 Governance and accountability International Advisory Board Steering Committee APEC ISTWG 31 Plans for APPENDIX 2

3 Preface I n the past 5 years since its inception, the APEC Center for Technology Foresight (APEC CTF) has been at the forefront of learning and dissemination of international experience in technology foresight. It has completed 6 APEC-wide foresight projects, giving a number of international and single-economy level training and consultancy, and published numerous books and articles on technology foresight methodologies and case studies. This Annual Report shows, I believe, that CTF continues providing excellent value for the resources it invests on behalf of the Thai Government and the APEC community. Recognizing explicitly that both foresight and technology are merely means to an end rather than an end in itself; I am reassured that the most central objective for CTF is to help member economies to develop their technology foresight capability and to use technology foresight in the development of their economic and social development plans. In this, I am proud to say that 2003 marked the first year of the Center s proactive role in facilitating and recommending technology and socioeconomic policy to decision-makers. This endeavor was made, despite CTF s major characteristic as a semi-virtual center, through its increasingly active post-foresight activities, especially in the areas of nanotechnology and DNA analysis. These also coincide with the accelerating role of the APEC Technology Foresight Network (accessible at the hallmark of which is increased emphasis on through its discussion forum networking among experts and capacity building for those at entrance level. I also invite readers of this Annual Report to visit the Center s home page at to find data on technology foresight in practice, announcement of training workshops and research reports that are downloadable for free. In presenting this report, I take the opportunity, on behalf of the Steering Committee, to acknowledge the dedication and support of the International Advisory Board, and the network of experts and representatives from APEC members who have made invaluable contributions to building the knowledge base that underpins the Center s activity. I pledge to give my full and continuous support to the Center and look forward to its future work. Professor Pairash Thajchayapong Chairman of the Steering Committee, APEC Center for Technology Foresight President of the National Science and Technology Development Agency, Thailand. 3

4 Background The APEC Center for Technology Foresight (APEC CTF) is a project of the Industrial Science and Technology Working Group of APEC (ISTWG). Through this establishment origin, the Center has been chartered with a mission to promote foresight knowledge and capability throughout the APEC region. The Center fully participates in the biannual ISTWG meetings and holds a side meeting in order to keep the ISTWG members informed of its ongoing activities and to seek the opinions, suggestion, and support from all ISTWG members. The Center was set up through the support of the Thai government and as a unit in the National Science and Technology Development Agency (NSTDA) with the important mission to serve all APEC economies. The Center has two committees to guide and advise the overall plan and activities: the International Advisory Board (IAB), whose members nominated from a pool of international experts with the advisory function to the Center; and the Steering Committee (SC), members are invited from senior administrators, business representatives, and other relevant government organizations. The Steering Committee has a specific function of providing guidelines on the overall management and activity plan for the Center. Since its inception in 1998, APEC CTF has so far conducted and finished 6 APEC-wide foresight projects, published a number of general books on foresight, conference papers and reports. It has also been consulting and facilitating numerous numbers of foresight projects in many APEC economies at national and institutional levels, as well as holding many training workshops on foresight tools. Through these activities CTF has built competency in foresight methodologies and strong relationship with clients and international experts, resulting in a growing network of supporters and alumni who see value in linking their activities to those of CTF. 4

5 Objective, core competencies, and scale of operation The Center s activities and operation in 2003 were undertaken according to the Scope and Purpose of the Center which has been adopted by a joint meeting of the IAB and SC in December The objectives, core competencies, and scale of operation were outlined in that year, which are still valid today, as follows: Objective: To develop and diffuse foresight capability across APEC through multi-economy studies, training, consultancy and related activities. Core Competencies of the Center: Capability to coordinate and facilitate multi-economy foresight studies (with embedded training); Expertise in training and consultancy services; Expertise in foresight methodologies and practice; Underpinned by: Ability to work effectively across a range of cultures and types of organizations; Ability to understand and communicate basic science and technology and its implications for socioeconomic development. Scale of Operation: The APEC Center for Technology Foresight operates as a semi-virtual center. From a solid base in its host economy Thailand - the Center aims to serve and involve all the members of APEC through partnerships and networking. 5

6 Activities in 2003 APEC-wide foresight projects 1. DNA Analysis for Human Health in the Post Genomic Era An APEC-wide foresight study project on DNA Analysis for Human Health in the Post Genomic Era started in 2002 and was conducted through the year The study was intended to assess the broad and long-term implications of new technologies and data emerging from the Human Genome Project and related research, especially the newly emerging field of DNA diagnostics and therapies, as well as the interface between ICT and biotechology, or bioinformatics. It was expected that the outcome of the study would identify scientific and business opportunities and risks, thus assist researchers and policy makers to manage these powerful new technologies and help them carry out strategic planning for R&D and industry development. The study was conducted through the following key elements (see Fig.1): Core group meeting: The core group meeting was organized in Bangkok during April , with Professors Greg Tegart (project leader) and Ron Johnston as the consultants. The meeting generated ideas to position and differentiates the study at an appropriate level, set up the specific timeframe for work, and design the questionnaire and consultation plan. Position papers: Six position papers in micro arrays, gene diversity, bioinformatics, drug development, gene therapy, and ethical/social issues were contributed by experts in each discipline. An issues paper drawing on all the pertinent issues from the six position papers was also prepared. Survey of experts: A survey in 9 economies of APEC was conducted. Experts in each economy were asked to respond to a set of questions, in which feedback be used to formulate the study issues for the expert group meeting. Experts meeting: In the final stage of the study an expert s group meeting was convened in Bangkok during August Through the participation of 14 APEC member economies, 35 participants attended the meeting to share their ideas and inputs in the scenario exercises. As a result, three scenarios were written and 8 sets of policy initiatives were proposed. 6

7 2002 November 2003 April May June July August APEC CTF Support and Organization Core group Meeting April 3-4, Bangkok Develop instrument Survey 9 Economies - Australia, Canada, Japan, Malaysia Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, USA, Vietnam 24th ISTWG Meeting May 26-28, New Zealand Life Sciences Innovation Forum, August, Phuket, Thailand Overview Paper Position Papers 1 Microarrays (Australia) 2 Gene Diversity (Australia) 3 Bioinformatics (Canada) 4 Drug Development (Japan) 5 Gene Therapy (Canada) 6 Ethical Legal and Social Implication (Thailand) 28 May Issues Paper 26 July Report on Surveys 14 August Report to APEC Life Sciences Innovation Forum September December APEC-wide Expert Meeting 25th ISTWG Meeting September 16-17, Singapore Final Report Vol 1, 2 December 2004 January Post Foresight Fig. 1 The Study Process The proposed policy initiatives were: restructuring the international intellectual property regime, education for a bio-social future, harmonization of international standards, protocols and access, cooperation and collaboration, new business models for the health products and services industries, addressing translational issues, and need for honest brokers. Further, a number of critical strategic areas were identified as: the opportunity to move from single-gene disorders to common diseases having a genetic background, the large differences across APEC economies in their ability to use DNA technology, the ubiquity of diseases across developed and developing economies, the need for collaboration and sharing of information and facilities 7

8 APEC-wide Foresight Project on DNA-Analysis for Human Health in the Post-Genomic Era Experts Meeting, August 2003, Bangkok, Thailand.

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10 across APEC, the protection of human rights in large-scale clinical trials, the need for training of both scientists and clinicians in the latest technologies, the complex issues arising from the rapid convergence of technologies. The Center produced two volumes of the publication, a summary report for policy makers, and a full report for researchers and the public. They were distributed to policy-makers around the region, including all the participated experts. The reports are also available in electronic form at Post-foresight activities At present the post-foresight activities of this project focuses on participation and recommendation to the APEC Life Science Innovation Forum (LSIF). The Forum was launched by recommendation of the APEC Committee for Trade and Investment. Its first meeting was held during August 14-15, 2003 in Phuket, Thailand, with the strong support of Thailand and USA, among other economies. It implements a decision by the APEC Leaders at their meeting in Los Cabos, Mexico in 2002 to place emphasis on life sciences and their application in the health care. It was obvious that the DNA study complements the activities of the Forum, and APEC CTF therefore attended the Phuket meeting and Professor Greg Tegart, an Executive Advisor of the Center has made a presentation at the meeting. He showed the Forum that foresight approach has been effective in providing a mechanism for bringing the stakeholders together and grasping the complexity of the issues. Close contact is being maintained with the Forum organizers and thus ensures that the outcomes of the DNA study contribute to the development of the Life Sciences Strategic Plan, to be developed by the Forum throughout 2004 and beyond. 2. Foresighting Future Fuel Technology In light of the energy uncertainties and resulting economic turbulence of the past three decades, several APEC economies are now investing in research, development, and commercialization initiatives aimed at lessening their fossil fuel dependence in future. By the year 2020, about 90% of the world s demand for primary energy will be supplied by fossil fuels and the world will require 50% more energy than it does today. Within this context, a new topic for the Center s foresight study emerged. Pre-foresight activities On May 26, 2003, 4 topics on Cyber Terrorism, Future Fuels, Service & Distribution Technologies, and Flooding were proposed, along with broad concepts of each, and one to be selected for the next APEC-wide foresight project during the 24 th ISTWG side meeting in Rotorua, New Zealand. At the end of the meeting, Future Fuels was chosen among other topics. 8

11 At the 25 th ISTWG side meeting in Singapore on September , the Center prepared a Concept Paper of the study (contributed by Dr. Pavadee Aungkavattana and Professor Greg Tegart) which was presented and received favorable support. Later in 2003 the Center developed a project design, which further turned into a full proposal with a new name, Foresighting Future Fuel Technology, and subsequently submitted it through ASTWeb to be circulated among ISTWG members. Several economies expressed their intention in co-sponsoring the project, and some gave invaluable advice and suggestions for further improvement of the proposal to best suit the interest of APEC economies even beyond ISTWG. Approach of the study Attention will be directed to rapidly emerging technologies for fuel, mainly energy carrier source for transportation and stationary energy production, not the energy itself. These future fuels, standing out by the expected amount of usage, are hydrogen, conventional hydrocarbons and bio-fuels. In this respect, many current renewable energy technologies such as photovoltaics, solar-thermal systems and wind, these will not be included in the study. Foresighting Future Fuel Technology is planned to be carried out through with Thailand s National Metal and Materials Technology Center (MTEC) as the project leader and APEC CTF providing management support, in active cooperation with the Office of Technology Foresight of the National Research Council of Canada. It is designed to examine the development and use of new fuel technologies amidst the uncertain and longer term future through the application of foresight tools and to help encouraging the transformation from the current state of fossil-dependence to renewable energy economy. This project utilizes both scenario planning and technology roadmapping (TRM) which is becoming increasingly widespread among strategists and policy-makers. The output of the project will be some recommended actions considering the anticipated technological advancement in the future socio-economic context of the APEC region. The center proposed that it conducts two scenario planning workshops during 2004 as a self-funded project, while seeking APEC Central Fund for another two technology roadmapping exercises during An approximate timetable throughout the project is laid down as follows: Table 1 Proposed Work Plan of Foresighting Future Fuel Technology Date Activities 2004 STAGE ONE: Scenario Planning, self-funded stage January Preparation of an Overview Paper and Project Proposal by CTF staff and a few experts from MTEC. Circulation of the Proposal to all ISTWG focal points. 9

12 8-9 March March May May June July August September Sep Oct November December Seeking formal endorsement and sponsorship at 26 th ISTWG meeting in Christchurch, New Zealand. Solicitation of at least 3 Position Papers on each area of future fuel from member economies. Discuss concept and start designing web page for discussion and probably short surveys. Phase I of web-based discussion (for technology development trends, future uses and issues of economies) Position Papers complete. Second phase of web-based discussion, focusing on emerging issues from the Position Papers. Questionnaire survey done through web if needed. Scenario Workshop I in Canada hosted by NRC, focusing on future technology developments and perspectives in North America and a few other leading economies in the field. Forty participants are expected to attend and all prepared papers are inputs into the workshop. Report of the progress to 27 th ISTWG Scenario Workshop II in Bangkok hosted by CTF, including 30 policy makers and industry representatives to prioritize the theme for the subsequent Technology Roadmapping. Support of some participants from developing economies will be provided by CTF. Stage One report completed and submitted to participants and focal points to prepare for STAGE TWO. Date Activities January February 2005 STAGE TWO: Technology Roadmapping, partially funded by the APEC Central Fund. Setting up the Steering Committee and the workshop Core Team. The Core Team will prepare a working paper on TRM process and scope to be circulated to each hosting economy s local teams for e-discussion. and web board discussion among Core Team and host economies. April TRM Workshop I to be held over 2 days. The Core Team will send 3-4 persons facilitate the workshop. July September November December TRM workshop II Drafting of interim report TRM Wrap-up Symposium in Bangkok attended by a wide range of stakeholders including policy makers and the media. Final report completed and submitted 2006 January onwards Post-foresight activities 10

13 3. Nanotechnology: The Technology for the 21 st Century Post-foresight activities The Center realizes that its success is measured by its ability to influence policymakers at organizational, sectoral, national and regional levels to implement the foresight techniques in policy planning and decision and/or to make effective use of the Center s studies. With the workshop Nanotechnology for the ASEAN Region held during September 19-20, 2002, the Nanotechnology foresight study was completed. Nevertheless the Center s continuing post foresight activities thereafter have been helping to motivate the ASEAN countries to pay more attention to the importance of nanotechnology and gave them some foundation to look into the future of the technology and its impacts. Thailand has been receiving significant inputs from the Center s publication and workshop which contributed to the decision of the government to establish a new National Nanotechnology Center (NANOTEC), with some contribution of the Center s staff in drafting its first strategic plan and the national master plan on nanotechnology for Thailand. Members of the CTF and NANOTEC planned a study-visit on nanotechnology early 2004 to Chinese Taipei s Science and Technology Information Center (STIC), National Science Council, where Professor Hsien-Chun Meng, a member CTF s International Advisory Board, is the Director General. 11

14 Multi-economy foresight training, conferences and seminars There were 4 multi-economy foresight training, conferences, and seminars conducted through the year The Second Workshop on Tools for Managing the Future: A Portfolio Approach This annual training workshop that started since 2002, led by Professor Ron Johnston and assisted by the Center s staff, was organized during February 17-21, 2003 in Bangkok, with a refined and updated content since the previous course. The workshop aimed to introduce important foresight tools and their appropriate applications. In total, there were 20 participants for both parts: 19 from 6 economies took part I which was an intensive training in various foresight tools and 13 took part II which was optional and designed for those who had a plan to apply their new skills to a project planning of their own. As a full evaluation report has been posted on the web site, this second workshop was successfully run with a high satisfaction from the participants, ranking at an average of 3.8 points out of 4 on the course content. Some comments by the participants included Good exercise in each session. Good discussion among participants both inside and outside workshop room Areas of interest for application among participants: Learning & university management (6) Science & technology (5) Industry, consumer and lifestyle (5) Public health (3) Methodology (1). PARTICIPANTS Thailand: 10 Malaysia: 5 Hong Kong, China: 2 Chinese Taipei: 1 New Zealand: 1 South Africa: 1 Senior level: 8 (director, deputy director, senior manager) Middle level: 12 (researcher, project manager) Comparing with last year workshop, this year s workshop indicated a shift from national foresight interest to sectoral and sub-sectoral levels, as many individual organizations were aware of the beneficial use of foresight for planning. A discussion was held by the Center to evaluate the result of the workshop and potential for next year. It was concluded that this workshop will be held again next year with certain modifications of the content, workshop design, marketing and pricing strategies. 12

15 Training Workshop: Tools for Managing the Future: A Portfolio Approach February 2003, Pathumwan Princess Hotel, Bangkok

16 2. The Second International Foresight Conference on Third Generation Foresight and Prioritization in Science and Technology Policy This conference was convened during February 27-28, 2003 in Tokyo, organized by National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Japan, and CTF as co-host. The Conference was an extension of the first one in 2001, where the discussion focus was The Approach to and the Potential for New Technology Foresight. Notably, it is an honor and privilege that the APEC Center for Technology Foresight was invited to be the co-organizer of both events. The Conference included 6 sessions, each offered knowledge and information on technology foresight and S&T policies in view of other economies experience, such as: S&T Strategy and Foresight Perspectives of Emerging Technologies Information and Communications Technology Foresight Activities in European Countries Multi-country Foresight Activities Foresight Activities in Asian Countries The Potential of Technology Foresight Six of the Center s staff participated in the conference and had helped in the preparation of three papers submitted: Nanotechnology: The Technology of the 21st Century presented by Prof. Greg Tegart; Foresight Activities and Strategic Policies of Thailand by Dr. Chatri Sripaipan, Ms. Kasina Limsamarnphun, Ms. Chatwarun Ongkasing, Ms. Mayuree Vathanakuljarus, Ms. Chongchit Charoensingkorn and Dr. Witaya Jeradechakul; and Multi-economy Activities of the APEC CTF by Dr. Witaya Jeradechakul, Dr. Chatri Sripaipan, and Ms. Tamsin Jewell. The conference was successfully conducted and attended by important institutions such as Institute for Perspective Technological Studies, European Commission, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research of Germany, The University of Manchester of UK, National Research Center for Science and Technology for Development in China, Science and Policy Research Institute of Korea, etc. The event provided good opportunity for the APEC CTF to meet other experts and to build up technology foresight alliances and future collaboration projects. Latest information and presentation reports of the event can be found at NISTEP s web site ( 13

17 Participation of APEC CTF and the Co-organizer of the Second International Conference on Technology Foresight organized by National Institute Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP) February 2003 U Thant International, United Nations University Headquarters, Tokyo, Japan Foresight in Germany Foresight in Vietnam Foresight in UK Foresight in Thailand

18 3. ASEAN Technology Foresight and Scan Project This is a two-year project intended to build up expertise in technology foresight in the ASEAN member countries (ASEAN member countries are APEC member economies except Cambodia, Laos and Myanmar). Key elements of the project include three workshops, a pilot ASEAN foresight project and bi-monthly newsletters. The first Design and Methodology Workshop was organized during August 4-5, 2003 in Hanoi, Vietnam, as a kick-off. It was an inception meeting aiming at introducing the project, demonstrating the value of foresight and leading to an agreement on the ASEAN foresight project. Then a training workshop on Foresight Methodology and Project Management was organized during December 15-19, 2003 in Bangkok to provide competence in using a portfolio of tools and in managing a foresight project effectively. The subsequent pilot ASEAN foresight project is to become a learning exercise of approximately 8 months long from January to August 2004 (see Fig. 2) that each country conducts its own foresight and scan project at their home country on a topic of their choice (Table 2), and share their learning experience along the process via newsletters and web site Deliverables Activities Aug Bi-monthly newsletters & continuous networking via website Briefing Paper & Foresight Topic Survey (NSTDA) Design & Methodology Workshop 4-5 Aug., Hanoi Oct Proceedings of the D&M Workshop Framework Document for the ASEAN Technology Foresight and Scan Program Topic Selected and National Working Team Set Up Sep-Oct Dec Dec (NSTDA) Foresight Training Workshop December 03 in Bangkok 2004 Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Country Projects (Jan Aug) Countries may have different duration depending on project scale, complication of issues and amount of country funding. Each country is requested to contribute some articles in the newsletter. ASEAN-wide Foresight Workshop 2 days in Dec 04 in Bangkok 2005 Feb Apr Jun ASEAN-wide Foresight Workshop Special Issue Aug Fig. 2 The Project Process Final Report (NSTDA) 14

19 Table 2 Proposed country projects on technology foresight and scan (as of December 19, 2003) Foresight Country Projects in ASEAN ASEAN Technology Foresight and Scan Project (Period of Conduct from January to August 2004) Country Projects Main Objectives Foresight Tools Brunei Darussalam Vocational and Technical Education and Training (VTET) 2024 focusing on human resource development (HRD) Cambodia Capacity Building in Human Resources on Marine Products Indonesia Technology Roadmap for Automotive Components Industry Lao PDR Human Resource Development for Livestock Industry Malaysia Technology Foresight for Broiler Industry Myanmar Foresight and Scan for Mode of Transportation System in Yangon City Core Philippines Human Resource Capability Towards the Creation of Technology Champions in Key Industries: Electronics Thailand Thailand Biotechnology Roadmap ( ) Vietnam Roadmapping HRD for the Development of Biotechnology Industry up to To study manpower requirements of the emerging industries and find out how VTET can increase the contribution to HRD. To grow the products and conservation of marine resources To achieve preferred condition of the industry in 5 years (2009) To increase the livestock products both in quantity and in quality To build future scenarios of the industry and define market development To change the mode of the system and sustain the healthy environment To strengthen the human resource capabilities in electronic R&D, entrepreneurial skills, technoventures and linkages. To design good human resource development system, that is one of the goals in the current national Roadmap plan. To build a HRD roadmap to meet the need of BioTech industry up to 2015 Environmental scanning Scenario planning Technology roadmapping Scenario planning Technology roadmapping Technology roadmapping Scenario planning Technology roadmapping Scenario planning Delphi survey and others Environmental scanning Scenario writing Technology roadmapping Scenario planning Technology roadmapping Consultations Technology roadmapping Scenario planning Mini-Delphi survey Technology Roadmapping Criteria for choosing a country topic: a) it involves a strong S&T component, b) it requires human resource investment to develop innovative capacity, c) it is suitable for foresight learning exercise of 8 months long and d) the timeframe of foresight should be 10 years. These are topics and project designs as of December 19, 2003 at the end of the training workshop. Fully developed proposals are to be submitted to Project Leader by January 30,

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21 By August 2004, most country projects are to be completed, and in November 2004 in Bangkok a final workshop will be convened to share the experience. Since the project does not only aim at building capability but also creating an ASEAN foresight network, bi-monthly newsletters and the project s web site are being employed as tools for communication and information collection to keep the interests of member countries on technology scan and foresight developments throughout the project duration. 4. Workshop on Technology Roadmapping: A Strategy for Success The two and a half day training workshop on TRM led by Mr. Geoffrey Nimmo, Senior Innovation Advisor of Manufacturing Industries Branch, Industry Canada, was organized during September 10-12, 2003 in Bangkok with kind support from Industry Canada. This event was open for all APEC member economies, public and private sectors, especially to the S&T planners or any interested persons who wish to understand technology roadmapping and its development and how to develop TRM projects. In the end, 30 participants from 7 economies participated. Three main objectives were set out under this exercise: to share information and experience related to Canadian TRMs; to provide examples and current thinking on developing TRMs; and to work interactively and collaboratively to develop elements of a TRM. Mr. Geoffrey Nimmo kindly provided the handout materials including a CD ROM to each participant. The first full day was devoted to presenting TRM theories and examples from the Technology Roadmaps in Canada with interactive discussion during the lecture. The second day of the program was followed by actual TRM workshop exercises on BIKO: the bicycle of the future which participants were, step by step, asked to discuss, brainstorm to develop the future of bicycle products. The participants, divided into 3 groups, were actively engaged in the process and they came up with bicycle parts and products of the future. Participants agreed that the exercises were useful for their learning experience. At the last session, participants from Korea had a chance to give a presentation on Korea s national TRM which drew attention from participants to follow up6 and obtain more information about the project. To provide further source of TRM learning, the APEC CTF has collaborated with the Experts from Korea to offer downloadable links of Korea s TRM on its web site. The workshop was rated an average of 5 out of the 6-scale on questions such as: Did the workshop meet your expectations? Was the information clearly presented? How did you rate the content? As to the question whether they intended to apply the skills learned in the workshop to their work, all answered yes. Some comments by the participants were: As one of the industrial technology advisors, I am more equipped with enough conceptual framework and examples of what is, how to develop, and cost/benefit of TRM in order to advise and disseminate throughout the related industries, etc. 16

22 Technology Roadmapping: A Strategy for Success September 2003, Siam City Hotel, Bangkok, Thailand

23 Consultancies at single-economy level 1. The Malaysian Ministry of Health Ministry of Health Malaysia Project: HEALTH 2015 was organized at the Institute for Medical Research, Malaysia by the Secretariat, Standing Committee for Medical Research, Ministry of Health (MoH) Malaysia. It engaged the service of the APEC CTF to provide consultancy on the project development and the scenario workshop facilitation. The project stemmed from realization that there is an absence of long-term (more than 10 years) Ministry of Health s research priorities that are necessary for appropriate and effective strategic planning of research activities, infrastructure and human resource development. Therefore, the objective of the workshop was to introduce foresight methodology into the ministry as a pilot project to improve the current research planning system. Prior to the scenario workshop, there have been preparation activities including the training of the project leader, Dr Ho Tze Ming, at the Tools for Managing the Future Workshop in February 2003, and a discussion on process planning by the MoH research team at a pre-meeting in May 2003 to analyze some key trends and uncertainties. Originally scheduled during April-October, the first scenario workshop was postponed due to SARS outbreak. Finally, the workshop was convened on November 10-11, The purpose of the two-day foresight exercise was to set the priority areas in R&D for the Ministry of Health s Institute for Medical Research. Twenty-five participants from the Ministry were involved in developing 3 scenarios on the key question of What are the key factors affecting health of Malaysians in 2015? The participants include directors and senior officers of research units. After creating the scenarios, they discussed on implications and identified research areas needed. The MoH research team plans to improve the scenarios further by conducting a survey and/or discussion groups on key trends and uncertainties. When the scenarios and research areas becomes satisfactory, the team will conduct another survey with a wider group of people and stakeholders to obtain responses on the scenarios and research areas. Should the pilot project been accepted widely, foresight would be proposed to engage in the next health research priority planning process of Malaysia. Comments from participants include some impressions that the workshop was indeed beneficial as it exposed them to an area (foresight) which they had not been aware of. Some mentioned that the workshop generated many ideas and should have been extended to other MoH staff as well as eliciting perspectives of other stakeholders (nonhealth) to help in identifying health issues of great relevance to the community. 17

24 2. Thailand s Health System Research Institute APEC CTF involved in another consultancy activity in Thailand by working with the Health Systems Research Institute (HSRI), Ministry of Public Health, Thailand. The Center assisted HSRI in organizing two major foresight programs as part of an effort to develop a ten-year plan ( ): Foresighting Thailand s pharmaceutical system, held during the first half of 2003, with a major scenario workshop convened during August 15-16, 2003 in Bangkok. Foresighting Thai population s oral health, held during the second half of the year with another major scenario workshop during November 17-18, 2003 in Bangkok. Prior to each workshops the organizers solicited position papers, issues paper, and hosted many brainstorming sessions. The final workshops were conducted among participants drawn from different areas of stakeholders. They involved the use of mindmapping technique and scenario planning, facilitated partly by the Center s staff. Strategies were formulated from scenarios for the consideration of HSRI. Some further activities are being planned by HSRI in consultation with CTF, including another foresight program on nursing system, to be held during Thailand s National Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (BIOTEC) APEC CTF helped facilitating a scenario planning workshop for Thailand s National Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (BIOTEC) during May 30 June 1, 2003 in Pattaya, Thailand. The purpose of the workshop was to generate a set of future scenarios that are to be used in formulating the National Biotechnology Policy Framework Four scenarios for Thailand s future related to biotechnology were written and based on these; discussion was subsequently directed toward the formulation of the national goals. According to the scenarios, by the year 2011, biotechnology will be playing a vital role to the country development in line with the government policy and the national agenda, which encompasses sustainable competitiveness, healthcare for all, income distribution and self-sufficient economy. The emphasis will be placed on applying core technology, e.g. genomics, bioinformatics, plant and animal breeding by mean of molecular markers to accelerate the development in the following areas: agriculture/food, medical care and environment protection, new knowledge creation for the development of higher value-added products as well as for the knowledge-based policy and strategic planning. The core technologies will also help to promote biotechnology business, including high-end products with high value, and new types of services where modern technology is required. In addition to being consistent with the national agenda and the government policy direction, there were strong suggestions that the national goals of biotechnology 18

25 development must also be derived from consideration in other dimensions. These include, among others, capability of and accessibility to technology, readiness and potential of the country, and implications to economy, society and environment. BIOTEC later carried out another public brainstorming session among technical experts, private sector representatives and other stakeholders. The whole process took 6 months before a report identifying the framework of policy initiatives for developing Thailand s biotechnology was completed. The report was approved in December 2003 by the National Biotechnology Policy Committee, chaired by Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. As a result, 6 subcommittees and 1 ad hoc subcommittee were initiated to pursue the national goals in biotechnology covering the many Thai socioeconomic aspects, as suggested in the report as national priorities. A secretariat office of biotechnology policy was also set up to manage the whole new activities. Further information can be obtained at 4. APEC CTF Foresight and Strategic Planning Workshop for the Public and Electrical and Electronics Institute (EEI) of Thailand EEI contacted the Center requesting for some consulting services as regard to technology foresight; their theme was the future of Thailand s electrical and electronic industry. CTF later organized a foresight workshop led by Professor James Morrison; the workshop took place on September 2, 2003 for the general public and during September 3-5, 2003 for the Electrical and Electronics Institute (EEI) of Thailand. The aim of the first workshop was to provide a background to assist participants to anticipate the future more effectively and, therefore, plan more effectively. Forty five participants took part in the workshop to practice environmental scanning, identifying potential events, and gaining experience in using probability impact matrix analysis. The subsequent strategic planning workshop was given to the administrators of EEI to help the Institute s strategic planning activity. The first workshop was successfully run and was able to give good background to the participants with small exercise in environmental scanning and probability-impact matrix and impact networks. The second workshop for EEI ended with extra work to be carried out after the workshop between EEI and the lead facilitator due to time constraint and the nature of EEI participants. EEI continued with its foresight activity, with emphasis on technology roadmapping. 19

26 Promotions through networking APEC Technology Foresight Network The APEC Technology Foresight Network (TFN) started in late The project was initiated with in-kind contribution supported by National Research Council of Canada (NRC). The objectives are to provide pathways to foresight experts, information related to foresight and an efficient way to diffuse the results of foresight activities. TFN established and expanded mainly through its web site ( to enhance the connections between the small groups of individuals engaged in technology foresight activities both within APEC member economies and globally. In building the personal relationships within this group, TFN seeks to foster greater information sharing and understanding of foresight best practices. APEC CTF currently responsible for the process maintenance and moderator s roles. Site technical transfer was completed at the end of April Table 3 Brief history of TFN Date Development and Tasks performed 2 Dec 99 Idea of the Network brought out during SC&IAB joint meeting. 6 Mar 00 Concept was presented to the International Foresight Conference in Japan 14 Mar 00 Endorsed by APEC ISTWG (at the Side Meeting of CTF) 30 Nov 00 Prototype on CD-Rom was presented to SC and IAB 9 Feb 01 NRC visited APEC CTF to discuss development of the Network. 1 Sep 01 First profiles to the database 17 Sep 01 Official launching event 4-5 Feb 02 Training for APEC CTF staff by NRC 8 Feb 02 APEC CTF assumed Moderator s responsibilities 26 Apr 02 Completed site technical transfer - present Membership interaction, foresight data management, technical maintenance 164 Profiles have been created as of December 2003: Experts: 56 5 Australia; 15 Canada; 2 Denmark; 3 Indonesia; 2 Peru; 9 Thailand; 3 UK; 2 U.S.A.; and 1 each for Belgium; Brunei Darussalam; Chile; Chinese Taipei; Hong Kong, China; Iran; Japan; Malaysia; Malta; Russia; South Africa; Sri Lanka; Turkey; and Venezuela. Organizations: 27 divided into six categories: 20

27 Government 12; Industry Association 3; International Organization 1; Private Sector / NGO 6; Professional Association 2; University 3 Events: 10 1 Canada, 1 Ireland, 1 Peru, 5 Thailand, and 2 U.S.A. Events were posted widely for members and non members. 21 APEC economies: 6 key member profiles Australia, Canada, Japan, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam. This profile is established for 21 APEC member economies with network contact person in each economy. Projects: 36 2 Australia, 19 Canada, 1 Peru, 10 Thailand, 3 UK, 1 U.S.A (The projects were currently listed only in short description.) Publications: 43 7 Australia, 2 Belgium, 17 Canada, 3 Peru, 8 Thailand, 6 UK. (links only with short description) APEC CTF is currently reviewing procedures to increase more members for the network, including the channels for generating interactive discussions to provide foresight information and valuable web site to the members. At the end of 2003, APEC CTF has contacted Professor James Morrison, emeritus professor of Education, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, to provide consulting services for this TFN project on the designs, content updates, and membership promotion. The improvements in these areas would enhance the ability of the TFN project to fulfill its mission. The website development is in progress and expected active network will be on during

28 Infrastructure Team development 1. Staff In 2003 the Center entered into another stage of development, starting off with 6 team members. Later on, Tamsin Jewell, the Center s policy researcher left the team to pursue another career of her own. The Center was nevertheless joined again by a new policy researcher in October 2003, putting the Center back to a full team of 6 members, as originally planned for by the IAB, in managing its activities. The latest member is Dr. Nares Damrongchai, who was recruited from the National Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (BIOTEC) to become CTF s new policy researcher. He earned a degree of Doctor of Engineering in Biotechnology and was conducting research in policy issues in the area of biotechnology for many years. He was a visiting Research Fellow at Science and Technology Foresight Center, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy (NISTEP), Japan, a member of the editorial board of the journal: Asian Biotechnology and Development Review, and a member of the Working Group on Thailand s Biotechnology Roadmap. His involvement with CTF in organizing the expert meeting and co-authoring the Issues Paper for the DNA study led him becomes a permanent member of the Center. 2. Friday Forum As part of team development, the Center organized an informal forum, which is called Friday Forum to provide opportunities for staff members to learn and discuss the topics relating to foresight disciplines as well as its practical applications to work responsibility. Topics discussed during this year include the application of Korea s TRM to the Electrical and Electronics Institute, comparative study of various scenario planning methods, and Canadian scenario planning activities (presented by Mr. Jack Smith of NRC), among others. 22

29 Web site The CTF web site has been providing information about the Center, its activities, foresight research projects, and foresight in APEC since October 1997 before the Center s establishment in Report on the APEC CTF Web Site Visits It can be said that the number of visitors echoes CTF s activities; Table 4 summarizes the number of visitors to the APEC-Wide projects. At the End of August 2001, CTF outsourced a web promotion company to promote the visibility of the web site. Technical installation took 6 months (Aug 01 Jan 02). After the service, the visibility of the web site through the visiting counts increased and improved satisfactorily, showing the continuing of web promotion service impact. However, due to the change on the domain name from to (Jan 03), the web promotion impact technically discontinued. Truehits.net registration The CTF acted on the advice from the IAB meeting in November 2002 to sign on the Thai government s IT free service through NECTEC at since February TrueHit.net was supposed to systematically track and identify visitors IP, ISP, countries, etc. Table 4 Summary of visiting counts (top frequency of visiting page view) Total # of Page Mont Jan-03 h View - TH AU BZ CA HK IN D JP KR NZ MY SF SG SN TK TS TW UK US VN UN Total Feb Mar-03 1, Apr May03 1, Jun-03 1, Jul-03 1, Aug-03 1, Sep-03 2, Oct-03 2, Total 14,633 1, ,37 BZ: Brazil; 9 IND: Indonesia; KR: Korea; SF: 6 South Africa; SN: Spain; TK: Turkey; TS: Tunisia; UN: Unknown 0 3,109 23

30 It is seen that TrueHits.net can only provide partial views of about 21% from the actual visits. Obtaining accurate information of the visitors (country, institute, etc.) will help in promoting foresight contents and activities. However, since TrueHits.net has promised improved services and has a low subscription fee, CTF was advised by IAB to continue the subscription. 2. Publication Download Counts Another advice by the IAB was to track the number of downloads while providing convenient gateways for the visitors to obtain CTF s electronic publications. From January 2002 to February 2003, a total of 1072 downloads were identified with 716 Male and 356 Female. After that a system was created with additional field requirements ( , position, and organization) on each free download. These personal data would assist APEC CTF in observing those interested worldwide. Furthermore, it is possible for the follow up activities on the results of the previous foresight projects and its implications. The Center is currently undertaking the study of the content of the APEC CTF web site together with the TFN web site (see the Chapter on Promotions through networking) to review the appropriate subjects and details which should be added, with full awareness that the content is most essential in attracting visitors. 24

31 Budget report CTF s budget from the Thai government for fiscal year 2003 (October 1, 2002 to September 30, 2003) was 8,331, Baht which covered staff salary, office expenses, and some project funds. Fund for 2003 ongoing projects which could not be completed during the year will be transferred to 2004 budget. Budget report for the fiscal year 2003 is summarized in the following tables. Table 5 Budget of the fiscal year Budget Report for the Fiscal Year 2003 (As of 30 September 2003)* List of items Budget Spent Committed ** Balance 1. Salaries 2,929, ,929, Equipment Computer equipment 225, , , Office equipment 76, , , Expenses Office expenses 15, , , Advertisement 58, , , , Publications 128, , Hosting guest 62, , , Meeting & Training (IAB & SC) 306, , Honorarium 27, , , Compensation 4, , Office supply 15, , , Workshop & Seminar in Thailand 239, , , Postage 3, , , Experts Fee for experts and consultants 522, , , , International exchange expenses 887, , , Travel expenses Travel expenses 353, , , In country travel expenses 107, , , International seminar 511, , , , Foresight Projects Foresight workshop 300, , , , Pre-Foresight Future Fuel 45, , , Post Foresight 255, , Thai Foresight 500, , , , FS Network 405, Foresight DNA Analysis 758, , , , ,331, ,731, ,772, , * Fiscal year 2003 started from October 1, 2002 to September 30, ** The committed budget is in the process of payments and continue running project. 25