Petroleum Industry in Brasil

Transcription

1 Petroleum Industry in Brasil CARLOS SOLIGO CAMERINI Porto,outubro, 2013

2 1. Who's ONIP

3 ONIP Associates/Members INDUSTRY SISTEMA NACIONAL DA INDÚSTRIA 1 FEDERAL GOVERNMENT OPERATORS STATE GOVERNMENT 3

4 Mission TO CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASE COMPETITIVENESS AND SUSTAINABILITY OF THE DOMESTIC INDUSTRY TO MAXIMIZE LOCAL CONTENT AND THE GENERATION OF EMPLOYMENT AND INCOME IN THEOIL ANDGASSECTOR 4

5 ONIP Activities SUPPLY CHAIN DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Suppliers Registration and Qualification CadFor- Registry System for Operators in Brazil The objective is to increase the knowledge about local suppliers in support of the fulfillment of local content obligations. 5

6 OFFSHORE E&P CAPEX EXPECTED TO INCREASE 8.5% P.A. UP TO 2017, OF WHICH 4.5% P.A. BEING INFLATION JUN-13 - Erik Simonsen, Senior Principal Consultant, IHS CERA

7 THE BIG MONEY IN OFFSHORE CAPEX GOES TO DRILLING AND PLATFORMS JUN-13 - Erik Simonsen, Senior Principal Consultant, IHS CERA

8 AVERAGE DEMAND GROWTH FOR H&D PIPELAY VESSELS EXPECTED TO BE 15% P.A. UP TO 2017 JUN-13 - Erik Simonsen, Senior Principal Consultant, IHS CERA

9 Brazil Rounds:Results of the 11 th round Location Onshore Offshore Total Number of Blocks Preview Investiment (R$ Bi) Preview of Local Investiment (R$ Bi) 1,3 5,7 7,0 1,0 2,1 3,1 LC in Exploration 76% 38% 45% Source: ANP 9

10 Brazil Rounds: Distribution of the winning offers by Basin in the 11 th Round-Onshore Sedimentary Basin Onshore Potiguar 14 Sergipe/Alagoas 11 Recôncavo 15 Parnaíba 20 Espírito Santo 6 Tucano Sul 21 Total 87 Source: ANP 10

11 Brazil Rounds: Distribution of the winning offers by Basin in the 11 th Round -Offshore Sedimentary Basin Shallow water Offshore Deep water Foz Amazonas 6 8 Pará - Maranhão 2 Barrerinhas 8 11 Ceará 6 Espírito Santo 6 Pernambuco- Paraíba 4 Potiguar 4 Partial Total General Total 55 Source: ANP 11

12 Brazil Rounds: Schedule of the Next Rounds Round Details Date Notes Pre Salt 1 th Round Production sharing 2013/10 ANP suggested the reservoir area of Libra in the Santos basin for this auction. 12 th Round Non conventional gas 2013/11 Basins of: Parecis, São Francisco, Parnaíba, Paraná, Recôncavo e Alagoas/Sergipe. Approximately 300 blocks. - Small and medium companies To be defined Annual rounds are planned. 12

13 BrazilRounds: NextRound -1st PreSalt Round Area offered: Libra; Location: Santos Basin, approximately170 km oftherio de Janeiro s coast; Area: approximately 1500 km²; Oil: 27 API; Expectedvolume of26 to 42 billionbarrelsofoilin situ, of which 8 to 12 billion barrels are recoverable. 13

14 Total Oil Supply (Thousand Barrels Per Day) 1 Saudi Arabia ,68 2 United States ,50 3 Russia ,97 4 China 4.416,18 5 Canada 3.867,99 6 Iran 3.538,39 7 United Arab Emirates 3.213,19 8 Iraq 2.986,64 9 Mexico 2.936,18 10 Kuwait 2.796,79 11 Brazil 2.651,94 12 Nigeria 2.524,14 13 Venezuela 2.489,24 14 Norway 1.902,08 15 Algeria 1.875,21 Source: EIA (Energy Information Administration) 14

15 Total Petroleum Consumption (Thousand Barrels Per Day) 1 United States ,57 2 China 9.324,00 3 Japan 4.728,54 4 India 3.441,00 5 Saudi Arabia 3.224,00 6 Brazil 2.933,00 7 Russia 2.725,00 8 Germany 2.337,92 9 Canada 2.327,34 10 South Korea 2.268,32 11 Mexico 2.146,66 12 Iran 2.088,00 13 France 1.738,41 14 United Kingdom 1.518,83 15 Italy 1.310,11 Source: EIA (Energy Information Administration) 15

16 Investments - Infrastructure and O&G Paper and Cellulose Harbors Railroads Automotive Total: US$ 550 billion Oil Sector: 38% Steel Petrochemicals Eletronics Highways Mining and Quarrying Sanitation Telecommunications Electricity Oil and Gas Source: BNDES. Visão do Desenvolvimento nº 100 abril

17 Total projected Investments in Brazil ( in US$ billion) CAPEX Petrobras 232 OPEX per year* 9 Other Operators 53 Total 285 CAPEX per year 57 Source: Petrobras * ONIP estimates 17

18 Demand for goods and services in the Offshore sector will be around $ 400 billion by 2020 Sufficient scale to develop robust supply chain of goods and services locally CAPEX ANDOPEX -E&POFFSHORE (US$ bi 2009) Consolidated Investment Sector 14, ,1 1,0 6,0 5,3 3,8 7,5 1,5 22,3 1,0 2,7 6,8 4,2 6,0 1, , , ,1 0,6 0,5 0,5 8,7 10,9 7,6 9,5 4,7 5,0 1, ,1 5,3 4,7 2, ,4 5,7 4,7 2, ,8 0,5 9,8 10,2 6,0 5,0 2, TOTAL EXPENDITURE (CAPEX AND OPEX) CAPEX CUMULATIVE Construction of Petroleum Vessels and Supply Boats Production Development Construction of Production Units Exploration and Evaluation Driller construction Seismic Note: Includes rigs and production units already leased Source: Competitiveness Agenda, ONIP (2010). 18

19 2. Local Content

20 The P-ZZ (1) vendor list indicates the national chain growth potential about 40% of the equipment groups have not been considered local suppliers Supply of equipment and Systems Companies in Vendor List P-ZZ Number of Companies Number of Groups 112 Suppliers % Estimated Value Type of Groups % Only Foreign Companies 42-46% Turbo generators; Centrifugal Compressors; Flare; Sulfate Removal Unit; Gas Motors; Gas Reciprocal Compressors % Predominance of Foreign Companies 48-52% Centrifugal Air Compressors; Control Valves; Diesel Motors; Flow Instruments; Positioning Systems (POS); Synchronized Motors and Generators Brazil Other countries 18% 7% Predominance of National Companies Only National Companies 3-5% 1-2% Automation and Control systems; Centrifugal Pumps; VAC equipment Heat Exchangers; Screw Type Air Compressors; Rotary Pumps 1)Recent platform Source: Booz & Company Analysis Booz & Company Maio de

21 Foreign Direct Investments in Brasil FDI -BRICS 2012 OIL& GASSECTOR IN US$ 263 billion BRASIL ,20% South Africa India 10% 2% ,90% Russia 17% 46% China Brazil US$ 66 billion 25% Source: UNCTAD 21

22 Petrobras Investment over time* US$ billion *Projects in Brazil Source: Petrobras.(2011) 22

23 ONIP Activities SUPPLY CHAIN DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Suppliers Registration and Qualification ONIP Supplier Registry System jun/13 23

24 ONIP Activities SUPPLY CHAIN DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM Suppliers Registration and Qualification Navipeças Registry System jun/13 24

25 ONIP Activities Suppliers Registration and Qualification CadFor SUPPLY CHAIN DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM jun/13 25

26 CadFor - Objectives QUALIFIED SUPPLIERS DATA STRUCTURED ACTIONS FORLC SOLUTIONS TECHNICAL MEETINGS WITH SUPPLIERS CADFOR INITIATIVES OF INTERACTION BETWEEN BUYERS AND SUPPLIERS SUPPORT THE REGISTRATION OF SUPPLIERS IN CADFOR AT EXPOSITIONS AND OTHER FORUMS 26

27 PLATEC - FPSO 27

28 Workshop PlatecFPSO Results Theme: Topside Instrumentation and Automation AnaIysed items: 78 Participants: 70 Identified Projects: 30 Magnetic flowmeters: ABB, SIEMENS, SMAR, RBNA, IPT Software controlsettingtype"pid":device, CONCERT, CHEMTECH, MECTRON, RBNA, IPT VibrationMonitoringSystem: ALTUS, DEVICE, CONCERT, RBNA, IPT Pontential Projects: 13 28

29 PLATEC - Results Identified Equipment: 1876 Analyzed in 7 workshops: 622 Identified Projects: 63 Pontential Projects: 48 Participants: 381 companies 29

30 PLATEC Results - Workshops WST 1 - Electronic Navigation Systems and Government - FIERGS WST 2 -Propulsion and Power Generation -FIESC WST 3 - Superstructure, Accommodations, Accessories Hull and Deck - FIEMG WST 4 -Pumps, Valves, Pipes, and Communication Equipment Anchoring and Mooring -ABIMAQ/ SP WST 5 - Automation, Control, Utilities, Security and Salvage - RECIFE WST 6 -Safety of Navigation / Operations and Environment -FIRJAN WST 7 - Topside Instrumentation and Automation - CIESP - Campinas 30

31 Themes under progress Goods and Services for: Subsea Onshore Exploration and Production 31

32 TheFuture Real time Monitoring and Otimization Reservoir in full control Drill better and recover more New architecture of production

33 Visão Futura FUTURE VISION Nova Geração de Equipamentos FPSO do Futuro de Produção Veículo Submarino Processamento Autônomo Submarino Distribuição Elétrica Submarina Perfuração Sem Riser Nanomateriais Nanopartículas Perfuração à Laser

34 PermanentSeismicMonitoringIn a Deepwater Field 34

35 Subsea Seawater Injection 35

36 Oil-WaterSeparationSubseaSystem 36

37 Subsea Multiphase Helicon-Axial Pump 37

38 Riser Support Buoy 38

39 2030 Technological scenario Reservoirs Characterization and Management Seismic: Acquisition, Processing, Interpretation and Visualization Detailed reservoir with a plug Total reservoir monitoring 4D Permanent Sensors Nanorobots Reservoir Production Optimization 39

40 2030 Technological scenario Well Construction and Subsea Systems Laser drilling Drilling without Riser Nanotechnology Subsea Processing & Compact Multiphase Pumping Subsea Electric Distribution AUV - Health Monitoring and Conditions 40

41 2030 Technological scenario Topside Processing Compact Equipments Plug & Play Information Technology + Communication Robotics 41

42 Subsea Companies in the UK

43 Total UK Subsea Sector Output Over 8.9 billion - equal to 45% of world subsea market ( 20 billion) 50% growth in 3 years due to both export and domestic market. North East Scotland dominates output due to presence of large contractors. Subsea UK Business Report

44 UK Subsea Sector Exports Increased by 1billion in past three years Comprise 49% of sector output Subsea UK Business Report

45 Future Growth and Trends Global Subsea Output to 2018 Predicted to grow by 100% over five years 20 billion to 40 billion Opportunity for UK companies Challenge to retain 45% share of global market

46 46

47 Subsea Index Database NEW! Matchmaking Brazilian and Norwegian subsea companies Bi-lingual (Portuguese and English) launched in Vitoria September 20, 2012

48 48

49 SUBSEA índice

50 3. Conclusion

51 Conclusions Brazil is one of the most dynamic markets in the world today; Opportunities cover all business sectors; The size of CAPEX is getting all the attention but OPEX is already very attractive and will grow along time; The presence of a solid industrial base should be considered; local content could be an ally rather than an obstacle; Finding a local partner is the best approach in many cases, but it is not a general rule; aggregate local content whenever possible is always a good strategy. 51

52 UK Local Content Source : UPSTREAM. Wednesday 7, September 2011

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