Combining methods in the technology intelligence process: application in an aerospace manufacturing firm

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1 Combining methods in the technology intelligence process: application in an aerospace manufacturing firm Husam Arman 1 and James Foden 2 1 Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK. husam.arman@gmail.com 2 Rolls-Royce Plc., Watnall Road, Hucknall, Nottingham NG15 6EU, UK. jamesfoden@mail.com Technological change is a major factor in gaining competitive advantage in manufacturing industries. Promoting innovation, exploiting technological opportunities and avoiding threats are increasingly important. Firms need to recognise both current and potential future technological advances that can affect their products, services and processes. This paper presents a Technology Intelligence (TI) methodology and toolset, the main purpose of which is to enable companies to monitor and assess technological developments associated with their products, components, processes and other areas of concern. These technology management activities will assist the company in evaluating its environment while taking advantage of technological changes that represent opportunities or threats. The methodology is described in detail and demonstrated using a case study conducted in an aerospace manufacturing firm in the United Kingdom. 1. Introduction Technology is an important strategic asset for many companies, and technological considerations must be included in strategic planning processes (Phaal et al., 2003). Strategic technology planning can enable companies to anticipate potential technology-based threats and opportunities and in turn, react in time to benefit from such developments. Technological developments may present an opportunity to companies, shouldthesebeperceived in a timely manner, monitored and managed effectively, hence enabling their transformation into productive competencies. On the other hand, external technological developments can be a threat if they are not adequately perceived and managed. These may present a competitive advantage from an unexpected direction. It is therefore important that technology-planning decisions are taken with the support of as much relevant information as possible, in order to minimise the risks of inappropriate technology investment or non-investment, due to misperceptions within the key developing technology areas. Knowledge management can provide a formalised structure for a company s information base, which will help in capturing the right/critical information, both external and internal to the enterprise. This can assist in searching and filtering the relevant technological information, which is very useful as a function in any TI exercise. Ontological knowledge management concepts have been utilised in this work to help mitigate R&D Management 40, 2, r 2010 The Authors., Garsington Road, Oxford, OX4 2DQ, UK and 350 Main St, Malden, MA, 02148, USA

2 Husam Arman and James Foden the discussed risks, in addition to improving communication between people and software (see Section 3.2.1). The incorporation of technology management principles is necessary to support strategic management and to create competitive advantage by linking technology to business. Within the framework of technology management, a Technology Intelligence (TI) process should be utilised to identify promising technologies, to show their potential as well as their limits and to take advantage of technological change. 2. TI: a helpful approach Most strategic managers claim that their companies keep abreast of developments in their fields, but they do not have a systematic way to capture the important elements of technology change from the general information around them (Ashton and Stacey, 1995). Traditional monitoring processes in most companies are largely arbitrary, and are dependent on what individuals in the company read, think and share informally with each other. Studies generally show that a limited set of tools are regularly utilised to support strategic technology planning (Fleisher, 2006). In today s world, such an arbitrary process is insufficient (Patton, 2005). The activity of collecting and evaluating information on technology developments has been given several names including TI (Ashton and Klavans, 1997; Lang, 1999; Lichtenthaler, 2003, 2004a; Savioz et al., 2003; Porter, 2005; Kerr et al., 2006), technology monitoring (Ashton et al., 1991; European Industrial Research Management Association, 1997; European Science and Technology Observatory, 2001; Thorsten and Marc-André, 2002), technology forecasting (Porter et al., 1991; Gerybadze, 1994; Tschirky, 1994; Bright, 1998; Vanston, 1998; Mishra et al., 2002; Martino, 2003; Bengisu and Nekhili, 2006) or technology scouting (Wolff, 1992; Brenner, 1996; Tibbetts, 1997). In scientific literature and management practice, there is considerable agreement on the importance of accurate and early anticipation of future needs and technological developments/ trends (Reger, 2001). This is due to globalisation of market and technology, the increasing speed of innovation and product life cycles, growing R&D expenditures and others. As a result, TI and forecasting tools in general have been suggested at company level in order to contribute in identifying technological threats and opportunities in such a fast changing environment. Methods and tools primarily in TI area, such as those described in Peiffer (1992), Ashton and Stacey (1995), Reger (2001), Savioz (2004) and Lichtenthaler (2006), are needed to offer actions to cope with threats that are not necessarily obvious to detect. Savioz and Blum (2002) contribute to the research by proposing a novel concept called Opportunity Landscape. Its main purpose is to make relevant technological information available to decision makers in order to anticipate future developments and to act accordingly. Peiffer (1992) divides the TI process into two major steps: identification and assessment of proposed technology. However, this method has been criticised because it adopts a very broad view. Ashton and Stacey (1995) describe a customerorientated outlook that utilises a systematic process that starts with planning for the TI activities, then data collection, analysis, dissemination and application. Although Ashton and Stacey (1995) portray a generic process that is easy to understand in practice, no specific tool at each stage is selected. Utilising the right TI tool has been considered and explained by Lichtenthaler (2005) in view of differentiating between qualitative and quantitative methods along the time horizon. Lichtenthaler (2004b) presents a TI process in the technological change context, as a process that depends mainly on scanning and monitoring processes. In this two-level analysis, the framework in Figure 1 is utilised. Within the scanning phase, employees become aware of a technology and communicate this trend to top management, which in turn discusses its relevance. The second phase deals with monitoring, where the identified technology is observed and potentially, new trends concerning the technology are detected. This monitoring phase can be repeated several times. To support TI, knowledge management involvement is necessary at some stage in order to store, retrieve and find relevant technological information. Mapping the enterprise s technological information is a vital element of the TI process because it requires a system to filter and sieve the relevant information from the immaterial. TI appeared to be a beneficial approach to cope with technological change by capturing and delivering the right information in a timely manner. Recent definitions by Kerr et al. (2006) consider the difference in using the term intelligence to 182 R&D Management 40, 2, 2010 r 2010 The Authors

3 Combining methods in the technology intelligence process Scanning Monitoring Monitoring Technology first identified by an employee Technology communicated to top management assessed and decision taken New trends concerning the technology first identified by an employee New trends communicated to top management assessed and decision taken New trends concerning the technology first identified by an employee Figure 1. Framework of TI in the technological change context (Lichtenthaler, 2004c). information or knowledge by articulating TI as... the capture and delivery of technological information as part of the process whereby a company develops an awareness of technology threats and opportunities. To better illustrate this definition, Kerr et al. (2006) highlight crucial parts: Capture: Focuses on the data handling aspects which includes collecting, categorising, storing and retrieving technological information. Delivery: Focuses on the intelligence processing and communication aspects, which include analysis, interpretation and dissemination. TI acts on the forefront of technology planning activities and enables organisations to reach beyond their boundaries (Brady et al., 1997; Levin and Barnard, 2008). Because of its exploratory nature, the process steps for TI are often difficult to formalise such that TI can be explicitly used within an organisation to support technology managers in decision making. This study has focused on formalising the process steps of a TI tool. It also goes further and demonstrates how this has been applied as a real case study within a technology-driven company, to provide a tool that is practical and yet grounded in technology management and TI literature. To do so, the TI process has been further developed to provide for the need to predict potential technology-based threats and opportunities (Kostoff et al., 2004), as well as the definition and connection of a company s core competencies to the relevant technological surroundings (Kerr et al., 2006). These are key issues that were suggested in previous literature, but were not furthered and validated in a real environment, maybe with exception of Lichtenthaler (2004a). Section 3 of this paper describes the proposed TI methodology. TI is used as a tool for identifying and assessing the emerging and competing technologies that could potentially disrupt a business. This disruption would be in the form of existing key technologies being overtaken by the newer competing technologies, which would in turn adversely affect the quality and competitiveness of the company s technology base. The opportunities and threats arising from this environment are analysed within TI so that the right information is then communicated to the right people. Opportunities may be considered for further action within technology management activities, thus supporting the compilation of a list of technology investment opportunities and possibly, eventual technology investment. Threats posing significant risks to the business would receive mitigation plans and be treated appropriately. 3. TI methodology 3.1. Concept overview A practical TI methodology is being developed to provide continuous inputs relating to events of interest to technology companies, in particular, potentially disruptive changes. The University of Nottingham working definition of TI is A set of activities that enables companies to monitor technological developments associated with their products, materials, processes and market areas, to check and evaluate the company s environment, and therefore take the advantage of technological changes (opportunity or threats). This definition is illustrated in the methodology processes that are described in the following sections. It should be noted that TI is usually operated in a welldefined area of interest. Of key importance is the inclusion of market considerations within TI. This is because in some cases, the only indication of a disruptive threat to a company may be the poaching of its marginal customers. r 2010 The Authors R&D Management 40, 2,

4 Husam Arman and James Foden Internal External Prerequisites Technological information Technology Intelligence assessment scoping Report findings Knowledge- Base Define State-of-the-Art for each technology Scenario analysis using Technology Threat and Opportunity Analysis (TTOA) Identify opportunities and risks Identify and assess competing technologies Visualise technology assessment Benchmark company s position against State-ofthe-Art Figure 2. Outline of the TI methodology TI process Researchers at the University of Nottingham are developing an integrated company technology roadmapping methodology: the Strategic Technology Alignment Roadmapping (STAR) system. This methodology provides software-supported steps for the collection of technology-related data through to the evaluation, ranking and selection of R&D projects (Gindy et al., 2006). As a key part of the STAR system, a proactive TI methodology has been developed to provide continuous inputs relating to events of interest to technology companies, in particular, potentially disruptive changes (Arman et al., 2006, 2010; Hodgson et al., 2008). Figure 2 provides an outline of the main inputs, processes and outputs of the TI methodology. In the following sections, a step-by-step presentation on how TI is implemented, maintained and how it functions is provided. Through combining and coupling an array of well-defined relevant TI methods, this paper aims to advance the concept of TI and provide practical solutions (see Section 4) Building a company s technological knowledge base One important function of TI is the capture of technological information (i.e. the data handling features), which includes collecting, categorising, storing and retrieving information (Kerr et al., 2006). Information sources could be external information that can arise from external sources, including competitors, suppliers, trade fairs, conferences, publications and patents. Information sources could also include internal information that can arise from internal sources such as R&D engineers and scientists, designers, shop floor operators, intranets, databases and company s roadmaps. This information is obtained and used by TI to identify promising technologies, to show their potential and limitations, as well to take the advantage of technological changes. An ontology-based knowledge management system is utilised within TI activities. The word ontology is becoming more relevant for the knowledge engineering community (Corcho et al., 2003). Many definitions of ontology have evolved over time. According to Neches definition (Neches et al., 1991), ontology includes the terms that are explicitly defined in it and the knowledge that can be inferred from it. Ontologies are widely used in knowledge engineering, artificial intelligence and computer science, in applications relating to knowledge management, natural language processing, e-commerce, intelligent integration information and in new emerging fields like the Semantic Web (Corcho et al., 2003). The role of ontology-based systems is shown in Figure 3. Technological information is collected using TI tools, then stored, updated and sieved to identify the company s most important and relevant issues. The model, as Figure 3 explains, acts as a filter for technological information. Kayed and Colomb (2002) suggest that the lifecycle of ontology design can be explained in three major stages: building, manipulating and maintaining. In the building stage, purpose, scope and ontology requirements are identified. Then data surrounding the application is collected. In our application the resources for the concepts 184 R&D Management 40, 2, 2010 r 2010 The Authors

5 Combining methods in the technology intelligence process External Internal Technological information Relevant issues Important issues Unimportant issues Non-relevant issues Ontology-based system Figure 3. The role of ontology-based system in TI function. Process Material Part Figure 4. The ontology-based system. Business Unit were attained from the literature and experts in manufacturing engineering. The ontology can be divided into information ontology (which produces the information) and domain ontology (which comprise the implementation side) (Abecker et al., 1998). Figure 4 highlights the structure of the ontology-based knowledge system and describes the required relations that exist between the concepts. Through using ontologies in this paper, relationships between apparently unconnected concepts such as products, materials, technologies, can be detected; where several events or changes that occur are seen to be linked via ontological connections, alarms can be raised to initiate an action to respond to these changes, indicating a threat or opportunity to the company core competences. Therefore, the ontology will include a company s key interests as concepts; hence when information is retrieved, these ontologies will work as a filter to detect the signals coming from the environment. Functionalities and benefits are explained in detail in Arman et al. (2010) TI prerequisites Although TI could work as an independent tool for a specified set of objectives and needs, it does require pre-defined inputs. These prerequisites include the following: Understand business plans, objectives and market requirements (current and future). Understand external environment (legislative, political, social and environmental issues surrounding the subject of focus). Access to and review of patents and publications (e.g. journal articles, conference papers, reports, industrial magazines, etc.). Access to internal sources of information surrounding the subject of focus (e.g. R&D engineers and scientists, designers, shop floor operators, intranets, databases, company s roadmaps, etc.). Critical strategic technology area and therefore company s critical technologies TI assessment scoping Strategic technology areas often provide an advantageous organisation mechanism for technology-driven companies (Foden et al., 2008). Should these not already be in place, a workshop with representation from R&D and engineering is required to segment the company into main technology areas. Based on these strategic tech- r 2010 The Authors R&D Management 40, 2,

6 Husam Arman and James Foden Technological change Part 011A Part 011B Market Manufacturing Technology Part 011A Assembly Product User/ customer Figure 5. Manufacturing technology s position in the supply chain. nology areas, the critical technologies (established and emerging) of focus are identified. These critical technologies are those believed to be essential to the present and future of the company in providing competitive advantage. The contribution of the selected critical technologies in the company s supply chain, through to the final product, is understood such that one can visualise the positioning and relationships of the critical technologies in relation to adjacent supply chain functions (a typical example is presented in Figure 5). In order to keep abreast with technological developments and state-of-the-art (SOA), occurring both internally and externally to the company, it is important to have formally established Technology Networks (internal and external) (Foden et al., 2008). This Technology Network consists of a list of key contacts who are knowledgeable of a particular technological area and provide comprehensive expertise through their involvement in subsequent TI stages. As part of TI scoping, it is required to determine the future timeline to be considered in the technology forecasting exercise within TI. This is typically a 5-year vision, though a 10-year vision could also be selected depending on the nature of the strategic technology area in question and its pace of technology change. Therefore, in order to select an appropriate time line, one should consider the typical development time of an emerging technology within the strategic technology area Identify critical technologies and assessment criteria In this step, established technologies currently operated in the company for the manufacture of components and products for a critical application, are selected against one of the strategic technology areas. The next step is to determine the assessment criteria that will later be used to assess technologies that compete against the established critical technology under investigation within TI. The assessment criteria for TI fall under two categories: cost and performance. Cost includes all the associated costs (e.g. consumables, equipment operation costs, labour costs, etc.) required to operate the technology for the manufacture of products. Performance is subdivided into a number of performance drivers for the related technologies associated with an application/part family under consideration (e.g. weld quality, weld accuracy and automation for friction welding technologies for the joining of aerofoils to discs. Note: the consideration of the application is important, as performance drivers may well change with application). These criteria are identified by considering the current situation and the future timeline Identify and assess competing technologies Within a workshop and considering each of the company s critical established technologies, the following (aligned to Figure 6) steps must be performed. 1. Undertake a group brainstorming activity with the purpose of identifying a set of technologies that compete against the company s critical established technology under consideration (these may be already-established or emerging technologies, and technologies developed within or external to the company). The various disciplines and backgrounds of the participants should enable a comprehensive list of competing technologies. References to patents, academic publications and conferences, industrial magazines, trade fairs and other external sources should be made. Furthermore, access to internal sources such as technical reports, past project data, is also highly recommended. 2. Through participant voting, a short list of those competing technologies that present the highest threat to the company s critical estab- 186 R&D Management 40, 2, 2010 r 2010 The Authors

7 Combining methods in the technology intelligence process Goal Goal Criteria Performance Price/Cost Perf. Driver 1 Perf. Driver 2 Perf.Driver n Technologies T1 C1T1 CnTn Figure 6. The basic hierarchy the AHP model (T1 represents a critical established technology and CnTn represents competing technologies). Assigned scores for cost Gap Plasma Arc Welding MIG Welding Laser Beam Welding TIG Welding Electron Beam Welding Figure 7. Comparison of the critical established technology (plasma arc welding) to its competing technologies with respect to cost for a particular application. lished technology and have the potential of displacing or disrupting its success is drawn up. This list must also be feasible for the purpose of the application under consideration. 3. By using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) (Saaty, 2001), each critical established technology is evaluated against its competing technologies by scoring each technology against the cost and performance criteria (which may be weighted if required). The same process is repeated for the future timeline. AHP is ideal in order to obtain quantified priorities for the comparison of alternatives. Furthermore, it is the actual value of the priority that is required in the process of quantifying gaps. Hence the selection of AHP over other scoring methodologies Visualise technology assessment Visualisation of the technology assessment is achieved by plotting the comparisons of the critical established technology to its competing technologies with respect to cost, general performance, specific performance drivers, or combinations of these. For example, Figure 7 shows that the critical established technology (plasma arc welding) is inferior to the competing technologies [metal inert gas (MIG) and tungsten inert gas (TIG) welding] with respect to cost. Relative gaps can be visualised and participants can decide whether these gaps need to be addressed or whether they are acceptable Benchmark company s position against SOA and competitors To supplement the TI activity, an understanding of the company s position against external leaders in the technology field is required. This workshop-based activity, potentially run separately to the previous TI stages, would thus endeavour to explore SOA. SOA can be defined as the level of development (as of a device, procedure, process, technique, or science) reached at any particular time, usually as a result of modern methods (Source: Merriam Webster Dictionary). r 2010 The Authors R&D Management 40, 2,

8 Husam Arman and James Foden The required workshop participants would have a good understanding of the external environment and visibility of technological advances in other industries. Patent analysis, competitor intelligence, journal articles, conference papers, reports, industrial magazines, trade-fairs as well as internal communications would support this exercise. Figure 8 summarises the ideal prerequisites to the definition of SOA. This together with the exploitation of the expert opinions would provide a sound basis for benchmarking judgments. The benchmarking of the company against SOA for both critical established technologies and their competing alternatives is facilitated through participant voting. Markers on a chart (see Figure 9) denote participant s opinions on technology maturity within the company and SOA. It is suggested that Technology Readiness Level (TRL) (Mankins, 1995) should be used as the horizontal scale and hence, the measure of technology maturity. This is because TRLs are SOA in patents Technology description SOA in academia Related materials Technology characteristics Major technology areas Technology providers Technology experts Related products/ components Figure 8. The state-of-the-art (SOA) representation. widely understood and provide a gated estimation of technology maturity/capability. From Figure 9, one can see that vote medians can be determined and the TRL gap between the company s technology capability and SOA can be visualised as a lag or a lead. This exercise is performed for both current situation and future timeline. Based on this exercise, participants can identify a technology lead that may require actions for sustainment. On the other hand, the company may lag SOA,inwhichcaseanactionmayberequiredto close the gap should this present a threat. Monitoring of the gap is sufficient if the gap is acceptable Scenario analysis Scenario planning is part of strategic planning, which in turn relates the tools and technologies for managing the uncertainties of the future (Ringland, 1998). Scenario planning has been used for many years as a technique through different methodological approaches. Prominent approaches were originally introduced by Godet (2000) and Schwartz (1991). Postma and Liebl (2005) concluded in their literature survey, supported by an overview for Masini and Vasquez (2000), that the Shell approach is much more pervaded than other main approaches such as Godet s approach. In technology management, scenarios attempt to describe a future technology or technological events, together with its environment. Scenarios usually include comprehensive analysis that generates general views of the future. In this paper a non-complicated process is required for scenario development, because most of it is a result of brainstorming and issues expressed as logical relationships between ontological terms. After developing scenarios through an organised brainstorming workshop supported by guidelines (in which ontology plays a vital part) a tool that is similar to the widely used Failure Emerging & competing (internal & external) Critical established & established competing (internal & external) Tech 1 Tech 2 Tech 3 Tech 4 TRL R-R SOA R-R SOA R-R SOA GAP R-R SOA Score (%) Figure 9. Benchmark company s position against state-of-the-art (SOA). 188 R&D Management 40, 2, 2010 r 2010 The Authors

9 Combining methods in the technology intelligence process Figure 10. Technological Threat and Opportunity Analysis (TTOA) method. Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) (Beauregard et al., 2008) method is used. The Technological Threat and Opportunity Analysis (TTOA) method was developed by the authors (Arman et al., 2006). Technological threats and opportunities should be related to the market, products, materials and processes that encompass the main company entities. At each system level, a number of scenarios are developed and then analysed according to TTOA process parameters. This is described in Figure 10, which presents a screen shot of the spreadsheet used. From the output of the scenario exercise and previous steps, those technologies that proved to be of importance and possibly present risks, are grouped separately to those technologies which were not selected as critical and which will be simply monitored on a regular basis. Our industrial partner in this project merged the TTOA method with the risk management system that already existed in the company. In this way, TTOA risks are integrated with its key programmes and can escalated accordingly. One should note that the execution of local risk management activities should not substitute scenario and risk development through TTOA in TI. This is because important and detailed risks attributed to technological capabilities and substitution may be overlooked within the higherlevel local risk management activities Report findings TI findings need to be communicated through appropriate channels (e.g. face-to-face conversations with internal key players, communities of practice, reporting and presentations, strategic technology area meetings/reviews, etc.). TI findings should also reside with the relevant technology owners and decision makers for appropriate consideration in future R&D investment. TI activities are typically deployed on a yearly basis for each strategic technology area within the company. However, reviews should be carried out every 6 months (or more frequently, depending on the rate of technological change for the area under consideration) as TI is a live exercise. 4. Company application of the TI methodology 4.1. Industrial case study application The case study enterprise is a world-leading provider of power systems and services for use on land, at sea and in the air, operating in four global markets civil aerospace, defence aerospace, marine and energy. The company is a technology leader, employing over 38,000 people in offices, manufacturing and service facilities in 50 countries. Aerospace organisations are clearly highly technology driven and the adoption of formal TI methods can provide a competitive advantage. A generic and de-sensitised description of the process of application is presented in Figure 11. Session 1 consisted of a set of meetings with key players within the company to decide about the applications and their associated technologies for demonstration purposes. In Session 2, technological data was collected related to each of the selected r 2010 The Authors R&D Management 40, 2,

10 Husam Arman and James Foden Figure 11. Flowchart describing the planning of the case study. technologies by interviewing the experts in each field. A workshop was held for the third session that involved discussions on the SOA, evaluation of technologies and a gap analysis exercise. The final session was a second workshop, to develop technological scenarios and select significant scenarios using the TTOA tool. Feedback on the workshops was obtained using a workshop evaluation questionnaire; the information from this contributed to the modification of the TI methodology for the next validation step that will use the modified version of the TI method A workshop-based approach Following an initial session with the case study company, the researchers analysed the interview outputs in order to build a model that reflects the necessary changes to improve the robustness and practical application of TI. The modifications to TI as a result of lessons learnt are described in the following and were reapplied through a re-run of the case study Workshop 1: technologies evaluation and gap analysis (Session 3) The first workshop was adjusted to achieve the following objectives: 1. Evaluate selected technologies as per the preidentified performance drivers. 2. Discuss company s current position in relation to SOA for each of the technologies. 3. Identify the gaps (if any) in relation to the competing technologies now and in the future. In the re-run of this workshop, three major technologies were considered against a single application. The relevant competing technologies were evaluated. These were internal and external established technologies. The following conclusions can be drawn: 1. Consideration of which established technologies are worthy of wider applicability is important. 2. The monitoring of alternative technologies, even if internal and established, is important. 3. Understanding the contribution of the technology in the supply chain is necessary to assess impact. 4. Keeping up-to-date with all the relevant technological information (relevant materials, manufacturing technologies and components) is always important and should be formalised Workshop 2: technological scenarios development and analysis (Session 4) The second workshop was adjusted to achieve the following objectives: 1. Consider all the competing technologies used by competitors, within or outside of the industry sector. 2. Develop scenarios to outline forecasted sequence of technology-related events that may result in opportunities or threats. 3. Evaluate the significant scenarios using the TTOA method. In the re-run of this redesigned workshop, it was concluded that the brainstorming approach was suitable, but would be better improved by capturing risks in the form of a standard meta-language structure (e.g. if event, then impact) (Foden, 2008). Further improvement over brainstorming was demonstrated through the use of ontologies, created for the purpose of the case study with real data and through the use of Prote ge (an open source ontology editor and knowledge-base framework, protege.stanford.edu/). Technology domains were related to functional concepts (such as applications) and technical concepts (such as materials and manufacturing parameters). Further TI scenarios were developed through evaluating all possible iterations between the technologies and their possible relationships with the functional and technical concepts. In this way, the scenarios surrounding technology substitution could be better understood. 190 R&D Management 40, 2, 2010 r 2010 The Authors

11 Combining methods in the technology intelligence process It was also confirmed that by transferring scenarios from TI to local (strategic technology area) risk management registers, informed decision making in R&D is enhanced due to consideration of opportunities and threats ahead of technology investment decisions. Where local risk management registers were unavailable, TTOA proved to be adequate as a tool to analyse scenarios and their associated opportunities or threats. Following TTOA, it was confirmed that the communication of scenarios and their analysis to key personnel was critical, so as to ensure that the scenario evaluation process was kept live until the resulting opportunities or threats were mitigated Lessons learnt and feedback The globalisation of technology and the accelerating rate of technology change are exacerbating the risks that technology-orientated companies face. The drive to achieve responsiveness to customer needs (whether via agile processes or other means) must be mirrored by the achievement of responsiveness to changing product, material, process and information technologies. Responsiveness to technology developments, and a corresponding alleviation of technologyrelated risks, can be greatly improved by the utilisation of an effective enterprise-level TI function that provides early warnings and assessments of potential new technological developments. The implementation of TI methodologies, are intended to enable proactive searches for information on potential technology-related developments, and to assess these before supplying relevant personnel with information, appropriate alarm levels and the associated reasoning. The initial TI methodology required significant manual effort, however, several sophisticated ontology support tools are now available. These tools, when combined with merging Semantic Web standards, offer considerable potential for the future development of automated TI facilities. Nevertheless, the authors believe that the manual engagement in TI activities is an essential component of any TI tool. The tool is very much people based and its practicality very much depends on the simplicity and sharp focus of the TI activity. This has been reflected in the evaluation of the deployment of the first version of TI within the case study company, its subsequent redesign as a result of feedback and its validation and lessons learnt through its second deployment. Furthermore, it was noticeable that the company culture within technology management and in particular senior management commitment was a fundamental factor to the success for this case study. Should a company possess resource to champion and lead technology management processes amongst its technical experts, the execution of such tools are set into motion and benefits are further enhanced. This was observed in the case study company in which researchers and practitioners alike were able to embrace TI. Participants commented that the overall TI methodology resulted in a useful and successful exercise. It provided a logical sequence and was aligned to the company s technology management framework. The deployment of TI strengthened the company s ever-developing view on the importance of tools, particularly within the early stages of technology management. Following participant feedback and the validation of the redesigned approach as described in previous sections, TI now forms an integral part of the company s technology management activities and has been captured as an internal How-To document. This clearly demonstrates the contribution of this study to industry. Moreover, this study has also confirmed that the partnership between academia and industry, in the development of technology management tools, is an important component to demonstrate the practical significance of the undertaken research. 5. Conclusions A review of the literature revealed that technological change is a major factor in gaining competitive advantage in manufacturing industry. Promoting innovation, exploiting technological opportunities and avoiding threats are increasingly important. Firms need to recognise both current and potential future technological advances that can affect their products, services and processes. Nevertheless, the accelerating rate of technology change increases the risks faced by technology-driven companies. There is a need for tools to alleviate these risks by providing early warnings of potential change. Previous literature has provided various approaches to technology management in the form of TI and roadmapping tools, amongst others. This paper has, however, presented a tool that better supports the understanding of external environment fluctuations in order to support technology managers through informed decision r 2010 The Authors R&D Management 40, 2,

12 Husam Arman and James Foden making, within the early stages of technology management. The proposed TI methodology focuses on a company s critical established competencies within each strategic technology area. It examines the associated potential opportunities and threats within the same field as a result of SOA developments. With this knowledge, a company may capitalise on developments in order to achieve or sustain a competitive advantage. As opposed to traditional technology management tools, the TI methodology allows companies to keep abreast with the detail within their key technology areas. Nevertheless, TI should complement and not substitute the broader technology forecasting methodologies and strategic planning tools. This paper has summarised the structure and application of a TI methodology within a technology-driven manufacturing company. Its application has been achieved and TI has been practically used to interrogate and deal with real data in workshops. Thus, this paper has demonstrated a feasible TI process that, through a number of design iterations and methodology modifications, was in fact applied in practice for supporting technology decision making. As already described, the real application of TI in industry has often been overlooked in previous literature. The success of the TI tool within the case study company has been confirmed through its continued use and formalisation as a technology management tool within the company. As with other technology management tools, the success of the TI activity may be compromised by human fallibility due to its reliance on expert opinions. However, the tool has been designed to also draw input from a number of activity prerequisites, to partially neutralise this reliance. This in turn creates another limitation as the company must be prepared to devote resource for the TI prerequisites research and release the appropriate staff for undertaking the TI activity. Although this concept is not a universal remedy, the conducted case study has confirmed both its usefulness and its feasibility for implementation in technology-driven companies. Typical TI should provide a corporate knowledge-base through which individuals can access, add and retrieve any new or relevant technological innovation data. Thus, the proposed TI methodology could also be adopted in technology-driven companies that outsource the manufacture of their products through external supply chains. In this case, the strategic technology areas would encompass product technologies as opposed to manufacturing technologies. The core content of TI is in fact generic and can be applied to those technology companies wanting to maintain a close watch of developments in the external environments that could positively or adversely influence business. Software development is taking place at the time of writing this paper to enable integration with the STAR process that is being developed by the University of Nottingham. Finally, research has being directed (Foden and Berends, 2010) towards the positioning of TI within a comprehensive approach to Technology Management, which includes other tools such as networking, technology roadmapping, capability acquisition, protection tools and others. These tools are presented through an integrated framework and define a total approach to Technology Management, of which TI (also termed Technology Watch) forms a part. Acknowledgment We would like to thank our industrial partner Rolls-Royce for their valued contribution, without which, the development of this methodology would not have been possible. The case study enterprise: Rolls-Royce, the world-leading provider of power systems and services for use on land, at sea and in the air, operates in four global markets civil aerospace, defence aerospace, marine and energy. It continues to invest in core technologies, products, people and capabilities with the objective of broadening and strengthening the product portfolio, improving efficiency and enhancing the environmental performance of its products. The company has established strong positions within programmes that will shape the power systems market for many years to come. References Abecker, A., Bernardi, A., Hinkelmann, K., Ku hn, O. and Sintek, M. (1998) Toward a Technology for Organizational Memories. IEEE Intelligent System, 13, Arman, H., Hodgson, A. and Gindy, N.N.Z. (2006) Threat & opportunity analysis in technological development, in Portland International Conference on Management of Engineering and Technology (PIC- MET), Istanbul, pp R&D Management 40, 2, 2010 r 2010 The Authors

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14 Husam Arman and James Foden Martino, J.P. (2003) A review of selected recent advances in technological forecasting. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 70, 8, Masini, E.B. and Vasquez, J.M. (2000) Scenarios as seen from a human and social perspective. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65, 1, Mishra, S., Deshmukh, S.G. and Vrat, P. (2002) Matching of technological forecasting technique to a technology. Forecasting and Social Change, 69, Neches, R., Fikes, R., Finin, T., Gruber, T., Senator, T. and Swartout, W. (1991) Enabling technology for knowledge sharing. AI Magazine, 12, 3, Patton, K.M. (2005) The role of scanning in open intelligence systems. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72, 9, Peiffer, S. (1992) Technologie-Fru haufkla rung: Identifikation und Bewertung zuku nftiger Technologien in der strategischen Unternehmensplanung. Hamburg, S&W Steuerund Wirtschaftsverlag. Phaal, R., Mitchell, R. and Probert, D. (2003) Technology roadmapping: starting-up roadmapping fast. Research Technology Management, Washington, 46, 2, Porter, A.L. (2005) QTIP: quick technology intelligence processes. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72, 9, Porter, A.L., Roper, A.T., Mason, T.W., Rossini, F.A., Banks, J. and Wiederholt, B.J. (1991) Forecasting and Management of Technology. New York: Wiley-Interscience. Postma, T.J.B.M. and Liebl, F. (2005) How to improve scenario analysis as a strategic management tool? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72, 2, Reger, G. (2001) Technology foresight in companies: from an indicator to a network and process perspective. Technology Analysis and Strategic Management, 13, 4, Ringland, G. (1998) Scenario Planning: Managing for the Future. London: John Wiley & Sons. Saaty, T.L. (2001) Decision Making for Leaders: The Analytic Hierarchy Process for Decisions in a Complex World. Pittsburgh, RWS. Savioz, P. (2004) Technology Intelligence: Concept Design and Implementation in Technology-Based SMEs. New York: Palgrave Macmillan. Savioz, P. and Blum, M. (2002) Strategic forecast tool for SMEs: how the opportunity landscape interacts with business strategy to anticipate technological trends. Technovation, 22, 2, Savioz, P., Luggen, M. and Tschirky, H. (2003) Technology intelligence. Asia Pacific Tech Monitor. July- August, Schwartz, P. (1991) The art of the long view: planning for the future in an uncertain world. Long Range Planning, 24, 6, Thorsten, T. and Marc-Andre, M. (2002) Text mining for technology monitoring, in International Engineering Management Conference IEMC. Cambridge, UK. Tibbetts, J. (1997) Technology scouting. In: Ashton, W.B. and Klavans, R.A. (eds), Keeping Abreast of Science and Technology: Technical Intelligence in Business. Columbus, OH: Batelle Press, pp Tschirky, H. (1994) The role of technology forecasting and assessment in technology management. R&D Management, 24, 2, 121. Vanston, J. (1998) Technology Forecasting: An Aid to Effective Technology Management. Austin: Technology Futures Inc. Wolff, M. (1992) Scouting for technology. Research Technology Management, 35, 2, Husam Arman is an assistant professor at An- Najah National University, Palestine. He teaches operations management subjects for MA and undergraduate. Before that, he worked as a Research Fellow at the Department of Mechanical, Materials and Manufacturing Engineering, University of Nottingham. He received his PhD in technology management and his MSc in operations management from University of Nottingham. His current research is developing methodologies to optimise technology investments strategies. His works have appeared in International Journal of Technology Intelligence, International Journal of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Clean Technologies and Environmental Policy, PICMET and IAMOT. His research interests are technology management, operation research, and technology intelligence. James Foden is a Capability Acquisition Engineer within Combustion and Casings, Rolls-Royce Plc. His role involves strategic planning of advanced manufacturing technologies, their development and eventual deployment for the manufacture of products. He completed a BEng (Hons.) in Manufacturing Engineering, an MPhil in Materials Engineering and an engineering doctorate in Technology Management. His works have appeared in Research Technology Management, IAMOT and Engineering Today. He continues to be active in the field of technology management research. 194 R&D Management 40, 2, 2010 r 2010 The Authors