FTA EXPERIENCES FOR THE PROMOTION OF NATIONAL INNOVATION SYSTEM IN BRAZIL

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1 FTA EXPERIENCES FOR THE PROMOTION OF NATIONAL INNOVATION SYSTEM IN BRAZIL Abstract Dalci Maria dos Santos National Council of Scientific and Technological Development CNPq The adaptation of the Foresight approach to provide knowledge to support the policy making process and decision making on science, technology and innovation in Brazil is quite interesting experience. This development tries to combine a common perspective to look forward in order to meet the needs of the present and, at the same time, compromised with the future generations, looking ahead in the short, medium and large time horizon, following the ideas disseminated from Foresight approaches. Since Foresight is about developing visions of the future to guide today s decision makers it is about integrating economic success, environmental quality and social equity in order to reach sustainable growth, competitiveness and job creation. In Brazil, some applications of the foresight exercises have had relative success showing that this approach is useful to guide policy makers and its philosophy and practices are spreading across the country. Up to now the main questions lied on a lack of understanding about the real benefits of the Foresight activities and FTA tools. In conclusion it is possible to say that Brazil has experienced a strong growth in these activities in the last few years and the prospective studies are expanding in Brazil. Looking at the recent studies there is a clear evidence of the wide use of qualitative and soft methods, mainly from the Expert Opinion family; and the use of methods from Bibliometrics and Monitoring families are also growing recently. There is a need to encourage the society government, businesses and academy to change their minds and then their behaviour in relation to explore FTA tools. Keywords: Future oriented technology analysis; methods and techniques; national innovation system; foresight; research and development. 1. About S&T Brazilian System and the activities of thinking, debating and building the future. In the last 10 years, the long term planning activities in science and technology had been reemerging in Brazil. During , the President of Brazil (Cardoso, 1999) started a process for recognition of its importance as elements to drive the innovation process. Then a movement took place for strengthen the long term planning activities including prospective studies, futures studies, evaluation activities and monitoring, indicators identification, intellectual property rights as strong mechanisms and tools that in joint interaction were capable to promote the process of innovation and social and economical development. At that moment, the idea was to synchronize the S&T policy with other policies of the Federal Government, in particular with the educational policies, looking at the education system itself, and, on the other hand, seeking for the participation of the productive sector, redefining the priorities of research focusing them to overcoming the social and economic problems. 1

2 A landmark of this process was the creation of the Science and Technology Board (CCT), by the Law no /96, in which had been installed two commissions: Prospective, Information and International Cooperation, and Regional Development. In the scope of the commission of Prospective, Information and International Cooperation emerges the first seed of foresight, as a tool of support the decision making process of governments. This seed has multiplied and generated the ideas of the Prospectar Programme, in the Ministry of Science and Technology (MCT) that was carried out in 2000/2003. The first experience of prospective studies, in 1998, was called Brazil 2020 and was a new experience of governmental planning in Brazil. Even without the sense of making a precise orientation for the public investments this experience has constituted a reflection exercise aiming at outlining views for the future of Brazil. (Sardenberg, 1999; Almeida, 2004) But the use of the Foresight approach start effectively with the Prospectar Programme (MCT), almost, at the same time that started The Brazilian Programme of Technological Industrial Prospective, in the Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce (MDIC). (MDIC, 2006) In 2001, the Center for Strategic Management and Studies (CGEE) has been created as a public non governmental Center specially designed to handle foresight activities and to promote national planning for S,T&I in the country (Santos, 2005; CGEE, 2006). Meanwhile, The Nucleus of Strategic Issues (NAE), from the Presidency of Republic was been created in 2004 and has the main objective to identify national opportunities and deal with long term strategic issues in order to support the process of decision making for the Presidency of the Republic of Brazil. The Brazil 3 Moments Project is considered the most relevant study conducted under the guidance of NAE. (NAE/SECOM/PR, 2004). Finally, these examples show that there is an increasing use the FTA methods and techniques by the brazilian organizations, mainly to help to define strategies and priorities of research and development to support the national innovation system. 2. Future oriented Technology Analysis experiences in Brazil 2.1 Brazil 2020 Project Elaborated in 1998, Brazil 2020 was the first experience of governmental planning integrated in Brazil, in the recent years. Even without the sense of making a precise orientation for the public investments or for the budgetary organization of the activities of the State, this project represents a landmark and has used the scenarios methodology with the elaboration of some exploratory and a desired scenarios dealing with to guide the Brazilian itinerary of development. (Sardenberg, 2001) Main Objectives: a reflection exercise, aiming at outlining views for the future of Brazil, and therefore, guides the elaboration of some exploration scenarios to guide Brazilian itinerary of development. FTA Techniques Scenarios: Issues as information society and the challenges for education and training, new jobs, ageing, unemployment, laws and regulation, new economy sectors, new relationships at 2

3 work was discussed and considerate to generate the scenarios (exploratory and normative (desired scenario)). The scenarios denomination refers to national culture and linguistic. The results has showed three exploratory scenarios (A,B and C) and one normative scenario (D) or desired, as follows: scenario A GOOD called ABATIAPÉ scenario B FAIR called BABORÉ scenario C BAD called CAEETÊ scenario D DESIRED normative called DIADORIM 2.2 The Prospectar Program The Prospectar Program (Barros, 2002; MCT, 2006) was the first foresight initiative in Brazil. It was launched under the CCT Prospective Commission and has the characteristic of being national. The main objective was to develop prospective activities to support the decisionmaking process on questions such as priority identification of investments on science and technology, promotion of networks to spread the prospective practices and aiming to become a permanent process of identification of scientific and technological needs, for both government and private sector. Eight fields of investigation were selected. In addition, it was expected that the results could provide qualified information for the investments to the Sectorial Funds (private contributions to the development of S&T in Brazil) managed by MCT. Selected Themes: The sectors to be studied was: Aeronautics, Agriculture (includes forest, fishing, livestock farming, agribusiness, biotechnology), Energy (includes biotechnology), Health (includes biotechnology), Materials, Outer Space, Water Resources and Telecom & Information Technology (includes electronics). Contou com oito instituições âncora, cada uma para ancorar um dos temas selecionados. Delphi Survey three rounds To define the Brazilian national project, the MCT organized a three day seminar to discuss and to absorb the international practice in foresight, through the successfully experiences of Australia, France, Germany, Korea, Japan and Spain. A representative of IPTS Institute for Prospective Technological Studies was also invited to present a comparative analysis. By the end of the third round, the topics were organized and listed. Each field was statistically described, after receiving a first identification of the percentage of each topic, according to each variable. After that, a cluster analysis was applied in each field. The methodological approach was planned to carry out activities as statistical analysis, cluster analysis and models for hierarchically the technological topics under selected scenarios. Expert Panels was also considered in order to refine the results and prepare the lists of topics, considering the needs of the different strategic agendas. A final report was produced (MCT, 2006) showing the whole process and part of the final results. Unfortunately, this Program was discontinued without apparent reasons and there is no evidence about the proper use of the results. 3

4 2.3 The Brazilian Program of Technological Industrial Prospective The Brazilian Programme of Technological Industrial Prospective was created by the Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce (MDIC) in 2000, and received technical and financial support from UNIDO Foresight initiative for Latin America. (MDIC, 2006) Main Objectives: The Program seeks to evaluate the capacity of each one of the main productive chains in mapping the situation and looking at a desirable and viable future, considering the time horizon as The main objective was to contribute to the competitiveness and to technological innovation process and public policies. Selected Themes: The Program has selected sectors in which competitiveness has seemed more advanced such as: Plastics, Building Site, Textile and Makings, Wood and Pieces of Furniture. However, just three sectors were concluded: Plastics; Building Site, Textile and Makings. Diagnosis involving interviews and literature survey: identification of critical factors to modeling the productive chain with some segmentation in order to establish the flows between materials and products. Prognostics: the main points highlighted in the diagnosis were analyzed in order to build the Delphi survey; Delphi survey: in two rounds, the survey was looking at elements to identify technological trends, as well as to elaborate some scenarios; The results of the three productive chains were published in july, 2005, in the series The Future of Industry with the support of the brazilian organizations, and again there were no evidence of the appropriation of the results. 2.4 The Project Brazil 3 Moments: 2007, 2015 and 2022 An initiative of the Nucleus of Strategic Issues of the Presidency of the Republic, in 2003/2004, NAE s objective is to process qualified information in order to prepare the process of decision making for the Presidency of the Republic (NAE/SECOM/PR, 2004). Started in 2004, Brazil 3 Moments Project aimed at defining long term national strategic objectives that may lead to the construction of a pact between the Brazilian society and State around the values, ways and solutions for reaching such strategic goals, and creating conditions for the institutionalization of the strategic management of the long term national objectives. Main Objectives: The project Brazil 3 Moments has a general objective to establish a view of the Nation Brazil in its many dimensions, defining a group of specific objectives and time goals to be reached by the country (2007, 2015 and 2022); 4

5 The Project Brazil 3 Moments will have as starting point a diagnosis that allows for the understanding of the present situation, and it will dedicate itself to the analysis of possible courses, and to the construction of scenarios and inter time objectives for the country on the three horizons (2207,2015 e 2022). Given the impossibility of a global analysis of all the factors involved, some dimensions of analysis are defined: institutional, economical, socio cultural, territorial, knowledge, environmental, and global. Diagnosis (literature survey): Conjuncture analysis: involves the identification of the situation, clear view of the main variables and indicators, stakeholders, ruptures, opportunities, challenges and factors bearers of future; Retrospective analysis: involve the understanding of the main dynamic processes that generated events in the past and that have been reflected in the present; Delphi survey: 3 rounds. Useful to obtain the society perception and identify the main issues and concerns; Curve of future: shall present the identification of environment dynamics that involve the scenario and objectives to be reached, the alternatives of construction of future, re feeding the role process and a permanent management; Scenarios simulation: the multiple combinations of the strategic themes; Prospective analysis: identification of variables, indicators and factors bearers of future, and analysis and evaluation of the scenarios identified; Cross Impact Analysis: used to look at the possible strategic solutions; Monte Carlo simulation; Game Theories, and Curve of future: shall present the environment dynamics involved in the scenarios accordingly to the objectives to be reached, and the alternatives of construction of the future. The main strategic theme selected, after the first three rounds of the Delphi Survey, considered as the most important question that Brazil s government have to face was the Quality of Basic Education in the Public Schools in Brazil. Following these results, another Delphi Survey was conducted in order to verify and obtain consensus about that priority. The results confirm that there is a national consensus about the quality of basic education and the need for restructuring this sector. (Gushiken, 2006) 2.5 The Center for Strategic Management and Studies CGEE Formally installed in September, 2001, the Centre are focused on scientific and technological development with emphasis on promote and execute high level technology foresight studies along with the private sectors and promote and execute evaluation studies covering the strategies and socio economic impacts of scientific and technological policies, programme and projects. Besides this, its aims to inform the public on the scientific and technological projects and experiences and promote interaction between the scientific, technological and private sectors. (Santos, 2005; CGEE, 2003) The Center had developed a conceptual framework to guide mainly the foresight process. Since then CGEE has conducted several prospective studies and seeking to build up a flexible model 5

6 that would allow the choice or the selection of appropriated methods and techniques according to the main characteristics of the object under study CGEE Examples of the foresight activities Energy 2002/2003 Main Objectives: establishment of a R&D priority agenda, considering the existing challenges to the Brazilian energy matrix in the next 20 years. Selected Themes: technologies for the generation of electric energy; technologies for fuel supply; and technologies for energy transmission and distribution, distributed generation and storage, planning, conservation and final use. Literature survey: Survey of the state of the art of the subjects (technological or not) by the analysis of the specialized literature and official and academic reports on diagnosis and future trends, resulting in the document called "State of the Art and Technological Trends in Energy". Delphi: 63 technological topics were examined by experts, using Delphi technique and considering four dimensions of analysis: techno economic, strategic, environmental and social. Each one was detailed in more specific components, giving origin to 22 questions to be answered for each technological topic. Multicriteria analysis: establish priorities for the technological topics using the multicriteria analysis (software Electre III). The identified technological topics were evaluated using hierarchical criteria and analysis of robustness, which made the generation of hierarchical lists possible, based upon visions and criteria defined by experts mobilized by CGEE. Water Resources 2002/2003 Main Objectives: establishment of a science, technology and innovation priority agenda aiming at guiding future investments made by governmental agencies in six pre defined themes. Selected Themes: Quality of superficial water; Rationalization of the use of water in rural areas; Quality of underground water; Products and equipments; Climate and water resources; Sanitation. Diagnosis: reference papers about the six themes related to water resources. Expert panels: involving the following steps: realization of expert panels to debate and validate reference paper elaborated for each one of the six themes; 6

7 analyses of the recommendations of each panel compared to recently conducted activities (Delphi Prospectar/Water Resources (MCT) and the national and international information); workshop for presentation, discussion and prioritization of results in an integrated format (all six themes). Biotechnology 2005/2005 Main Objectives: Mapping challenges and opportunities for biotechnology in Brazil, with particular focus on research and commercialization of genetically modified organisms (GMOs). This should include social and cultural aspects associated with GMO commercial use and consumption in the agricultural and health sectors. Selected Themes: Future economic and social impacts of GMO technologies; trends on the regulatory and legal national and international framework; applied metrology for biological products and processes; trends in public perception and flows of information; technological and commercial strategies (long term perspective); financing mechanisms; future of plant breeding and plant breeder profile; and trends in intellectual property rights. Mapping S&T national capacity according to data available in the CNPq/Lattes database; Scientific and Technological monitoring using text mining techniques (software Vantage Point) applied to relevant international databases. Interviews with experts; Trend analysis on the international biosafety regulatory framework, and on the adoption of RR soybean varieties by Brazilian farmers; Evaluation of public perception and flows of information in relation to the application of genetic engineering technologies; Expert panels: expert panels were conducted to debate each theme selected; Nanotechnology 2005/2005 Main Objectives: Mapping the current situation and future trends on science and technology in the country and in a number of selected nations, in order to guide national investments in nanosciences and nanotechnologies. Selected Themes: Trends in science and technology development in a selected group of countries, both developed and developing; trends in private sector investments worldwide; State of the arte on nanoscience and nanotechnology in Brazil (main research groups, laboratorial infrastructure, funding, training activities and international cooperation) FTA Techniques Scientific and Technological monitoring using text mining techniques (software Vantage Point), according to a dictionary of terms developed by CGEE 7

8 Benchmarking, aiming at comparing the development of nanosciences and nanotechnologies between two groups of selected countries, one composed by leading countries and other by emerging countries in this field. Delphi survey: involving around 1800 participants at the beginning, this web consultation covered the following subjects: nanotechnology for sensors; nanotechnology for processing, storage and transmission of information; nanobiotechnology; nanotechnology for structured applications; tools and equipments for nanosciences and nanotechnologies; nanotechnology for electrochemical processes; energy; agribusiness; water resources and environment; social impacts of nanotechnology; long range research. 4. Final Remarks Based on the above discussions, one can see that Brazil, in the last few years, has experienced a strong growth on the use of the FTA methods and techniques as well as expanding the culture of prospective studies. Looking at the classification of FTA methods (Porter et al., 2004), one can summarize that: there is a clear evidence of the wide use of qualitative and soft methods, mainly from the Expert Opinion family; the use of methods from Bibliometrics and Monitoring families are also growing recently; there is a need to increase the use of methods from the Scenarios, Trend Analysis, Descriptive, Statistical, Modeling & Simulation and Valuing/Decision/Economic families; there is no evidence of the use of methods from the Creativity family. One important point to be highlighted refers to the understanding about the real benefits of the use of these kind of tools to support the decision making process. Moreover, some questions are still being considered: the points of interest of the involved communities about the future tend not to be well coordinated and integrated; there are numerous concerns about the management of these studies; there are good conceptual frameworks but a lack of full application of them; there is a need to increase and expand the use of FTA tools using complementary methods in a coordinating manner; there is a need to encourage the society government, businesses and academy to change their minds and then their behavior in relation to explore FTA tools. 8

9 5. References Almeida, P.R. A experiência brasileira em planejamento econômico: uma síntese histórica. Artigo. Available in June, Barros. H.G. Brazilian National Technology Foresight: The Prospectar Project. Prepared for Presentation on the Walcue Seminar, Cartagena de Indias, Colombia, January 22, Available in august, 10, 2006, Cardoso. F.H. Reforma Política: Prioridades e Perspectivas para a Nação Brasileira. Projeto Brasil Parcerias Estratégicas, no. 6, março de pp Foresight in Water Resources. Center for Strategic Management and Studies (CGEE), Available in august, 12, 2006, Foresight in Energy. Center for Strategic Management and Studies (CGEE), Available in august, 12, Gushiken, L. O Núcleo de Assuntos Estratégicos. Exposição no GIFE. 25/05/2006. Available in august, 10, _05_14h_luiz_gushiken.pdf%22 Gushiken; L. Qualidade da Educação Básica. Exposição para a Folha de São Paulo, 31/05/2006. Available in august, 10, lula.pdf#search=%22%22gushiken%22%2b%22nae%22%22 Santos, M.M. Center for Strategic Management and Studies on Science, Technology and Innovation: An approach for the promotion of innovation in Brazil. Workshop Internacional "Sistemas de Apoio à Formulação de Políticas Públicas de Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação", april 2005.Technology and Innovation Observatory (OTI). SP. Brazil. Available in 12/08/ Sardenberg, R. M. Brasil 2020 Semana Brasil Brasil França. Discurso proferido pelo Ministro da ciência e Tecnologia, Embaixador Ronaldo Mota Sardenberg, Sessão de Abertura da Semana Brasil Paris, 16 de outubro de Revista Parcerias Estratégicas, no. 10, março pp Available in august, 10,

10 Sardenberg. R.M. Visões Estratégicas e o Futuro Desejável. Projeto Brasil Parcerias Estratégicas, no. 6, março de pp Science and Technology Ministry. Prospectar Programme. Available in august, 15, O Futuro da Indústria da Construção Civil. Programa Brasileiro de Prospectiva Tecnológica Industrial.Final Report. Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce (MDIC). Available in august, 10, php O Futuro da Indústria de Transformados Plásticos. Programa Brasileiro de Prospectiva Tecnologica Industrial. Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce (MDIC). Available in august, 10, php O Futuro da Indústria de Têxtil e de Confecções. Programa Brasileiro de Prospectiva Tecnológica Industrial. Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce (MDIC). Available in august, 10, php Porter. A.L. et al,. Technology Futures analysis: Toward integration of the field and new methods. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 71. pp Project Brazil 3 Moments: 2007, 2015 and Presentation. Cadernos NAE Long Term Strategic Processes, no. 01, july, Programa Brasileiro de Prospectiva Tecnológica Industrial. Plano de Ação. Ministry of Development, Industry and Commerce (MDIC). Available in august, 10,