How to Improve Agile Development Using the Cynefin Framework

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1 How to Improve Agile Development Using the Cynefin Framework Daniel Walsh Agile Day Twin Cities linkedin.com/in/danwalsh1115

3 What is a heuristic? Rule of thumb Order of magnitude Educated guess Guesstimate SWAG Quick and dirty First cut Guiding principles Engineering judgement Ha пальцами (by the fingers) Faustregel (the fist) le pif (the nose) 目の測定 (measuring with the eye) 3 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

5 What is a Heuristic? A heuristic is anything that provides a plausible aid or direction in the solution of a problem* reduces the search time for problem solving does not guarantee a solution to a problem can offer conflicting advice acceptance depends on the immediate context instead of an absolute standard Example engineering heuristics: Solve problems by successive approximations (trial and error) Divide the problem into its constituent parts (divide and conquer) Do what worked last time (yesterday s weather) *Reference: Koen, Billy Vaughn. Discussion of the Method Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

Everything in engineering is heuristic. -Billy Vaughn Koen *Reference: Koen, Billy Vaughn.

Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Responding to change over following a plan Face-to-face conversation is the best form of communication Best architectures, requirements, and

7 Individuals and interactions over processes and tools Responding to change over following a plan Face-to-face conversation is the best form of communication Best architectures, requirements, and designs emerge from self-organizing teams Everything in Agile is heuristic Definition of Done Two to four week iterations Daily Standup Velocity tracking User stories XP Scrum Kanban State of the Art (SOTA) Scrum at Scale LeSS DAD SAFe Nexus 7 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

8 Heuristics produce accurate decisions by exploiting the structures of information in the environments in which they are applied* *Reference: Gigerenzer & Todd. Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

9 Heuristics are dependent on immediate context instead of absolute truth* *Reference: Koen, Billy Vaughn. Discussion of the Method Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

What is better Scrum or Kanban? *Reference: Koen, Billy Vaughn.

12 The future of Agile is one where practitioners understand not only how, but also why Agile methods and practices work across different contexts. 12 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

13 Solution Known Solution Unknown Situational Awareness & Understanding Context Scrum Release Trains Standard Work A3 Problem Solving Lean Startup Spike Kanban Set-based Concurrent Engineering TDD Trade-off Curves Deterministic Process Non-deterministic Process 13 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

14 Cynefin Framework kuh-nev-in The Cynefin framework is first about situational awareness, followed by contextually appropriate action. The nature of the system determines the way we can know things, how we make decisions, and how we act. -David Snowden 14 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

17 Unordered The Cynefin Framework Complex Complicated Chaotic Disorder Obvious Ordered Cause and Effect Relationship Constraints Decision-making How to respond The Cynefin Framework is Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. 17 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

18 The Obvious Domain Direct Cause-Effect Relationship Disorder The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. Obvious Rigid constraints No degrees of freedom best practice sense-categorize-respond Standards Checklists Best-Known Methods 18 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

19 The Complicated Domain Indirect Cause-Effect Relationship Complicated Governing constraints Tightly coupled Communities of Practice Experts Better-Known Methods good practice sense-analyze-respond Obvious Rigid constraints No degrees of freedom best practice sense-categorize-respond The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. 19 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

20 The Complex Domain Interconnected Cause-Effect Relationship Pattern Recognition Parallel Learning Adaptive, Resilient Methods Complex Enabling constraints Loosely coupled emergent practice probe-sense-respond Complicated Governing constraints Tightly coupled good practice sense-analyze-respond Obvious Rigid constraints No degrees of freedom best practice sense-categorize-respond The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. 20 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

21 The Chaotic Domain Unknowable Cause-Effect Relationship Complex Enabling constraints Loosely coupled emergent practice probe-sense-respond Complicated Governing constraints Tightly coupled good practice sense-analyze-respond Radical Innovation Crisis Management Stabilizing Methods The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. Chaotic No constraints Not coupled novel practice act-sense-respond Disorder Obvious Rigid constraints No degrees of freedom best practice sense-categorize-respond 21 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

22 The Disordered Domain Indeterminate Cause-Effect Relationship Complex Enabling constraints Loosely coupled Complicated Governing constraints Tightly coupled Discuss perspectives Partition Diagnostic Methods emergent practice probe-sense-respond Chaotic No constraints Not coupled novel practice act-sense-respond Disorder exploratory practice probe sense respond good practice sense-analyze-respond Obvious Rigid constraints No degrees of freedom best practice sense-categorize-respond The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. 22 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

23 Hindsight Does Not Lead To Foresight Cause Events as Dots Links Patterns Connecting Dots Effect # of Dots: # of Links: # of Possible Patterns: ~35 trillion n L=n(n-1)/2 P=2 L Source: The Mathematics of Dots by Max Boisot 23 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

24 Cynefin Framework Older Version Complex Unknown Unknowns emergent practice probe-sense-respond Complicated Known Unknown good practice sense-analyze-respond Disorder Chaotic Unknowable Unknowns novel practice act-sense-respond Obvious Known Knowns best practice sense-categorize-respond The Cynefin Framework by D Snowden - Cognitive Edge. Used with permission. 24 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

25 Nature is adroit in creating objects whose only excuse for being seems to be to thwart someone s effort to put them into a category. -Billy Vaughn Koen *Reference: Koen, Billy Vaughn. Discussion of the Method Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

27 Cynefin Metaphors Games Complex Complicated Texas Hold em Poker Blackjack Disorder Chaotic Food Fight Calvinball* Obvious Coin Toss Reference: 27 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

28 Cynefin Metaphors Signals Complex Complicated Roundabout Traffic Light Disorder Chaotic Obvious Spiderman Sense 6 th Sense Police Roadblock 28 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

29 Agile in Context Software Development Complex Complicated User Testing Canary Deployments* Regression Testing Disorder *Reference: **Reference: The Netflix Simian Army post on Medium, 2011 Chaotic Chaos Monkey ChAP** Obvious Unit Test 29 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

31 Agile in Context Software Development Estimates Complex #Guesstimates Complicated #NoEstimates #KnowEstimates Disorder Chaotic Obvious Take Action Not Needed 31 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

32 Agile in Context Prioritization Complex Multiple small bets 1/N Complicated Weighted-shortest Job First 2 Chaotic First-fit Pattern Match 3 1 Reference: Gigerenzer & Todd. Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart Reference: Reinertsen, Don. The Principles of Product Development Flow: Second Generation Lean Product Development Reference: Klein, Gary. Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions Disorder 32 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017 Obvious Take the best 1

Beware the certainty of the captured expert* -Billy Vaughn Koen *Reference: Koen, Billy Vaughn.

35 A kōan ( 公案 )is a story, dialogue, question, or statement, which is used in Zen practice to provoke the "great doubt" and test a student's progress *Reference: 35 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

Isn t that an interesting heuristic. -Billy Vaughn Koen *Reference: Koen, Billy Vaughn.

Gigerenzer & Todd. Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart. 2000. Snowden & Boone.

The Principles of Product Development Flow: Second Generation Lean Product Development. 2009.

37 References Koen, Billy Vaughn. Discussion of the Method: Conducting the Engineer's Approach to Problem Solving Gigerenzer & Todd. Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart Snowden & Boone. A Leader s Framework for Decision Making. Harvard Business Review, Reinertsen, Don. The Principles of Product Development Flow: Second Generation Lean Product Development Schwaber & Sutherland. The Scrum Guide Klein, Gary. Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

38 The future of Agile is one where practitioners understand not only how, but also why Agile methods and practices work across different contexts. Q&A Feel free to follow up with me at Slides posted here 38 Copyright 2017 nucognitive LLC. All rights reserved. SOTA Walsh;Nov2017

Applying Design Thinking and Complexity Theory in Agile Organizations. Jean Tabaka, Rally

Applying Design Thinking and Complexity Theory in Agile Organizations Jean Tabaka, Rally Software @jeantabaka growth good change weird An Agile Adoption Story 2002 5000 14 7 1 1 Bureaucracy Cookbook Agile