Comparison of approaches for anticipation and evaluation of radical technologies in the corporate context

Transcription

1 Comparison of approaches for anticipation and evaluation of radical technologies in the corporate context The Radical Technology Inquirer (RTI) and the Technology Radar Anna-Leena Vasamo Aalto University, Finland

2 Introduction and background The Radical Technology Inquirer (RTI) a tool for the anticipation and evaluation of radical technologies Developed by the Finnish Parliament s Committee for the Future, published in 2013 Authors Risto Linturi, Osmo Kuusi and Toni Ahlqvist Translated into English, edited and updated by Osmo Kuusi and Anna- Leena Vasamo in Radical Technological Solutions, 20 Global Value-producing Networks How might the RTI tool benefit companies foresight processes? RTI currently being tested with Finnish manufacturing companies Comparison of the RTI with an existing, studied tool used in the corporate context, the Technology Radar Cases: Cisco Systems, Deutsche Telekom Group

3 Phases of the foresight process 1. Strategic Intelligence / IDENTIFICATION 4. Implementation / DISSEMINATION 2. Sense-Making / SELECTION 3. Selecting Priorities / ASSESSMENT (Figure modified from Kuusi, Cuhls & Steinmüller 2015)

4 The Radical Technology Inquirer (RTI) process 1. Identification Facilitated online discussion on Facebook 600 members, 100 active

5 The Radical Technology Inquirer (RTI) process 1. Identification Facilitated online discussion on Facebook 600 members, 100 active 2. Selection 100 technologies selected by the authors

6 The Radical Technology Inquirer (RTI) process 1. Identification Facilitated online discussion on Facebook 600 members, 100 active 2. Selection 100 technologies selected by the authors 3. Assessment Ranking system, 25 indicators: 1. Impact on the GVPNs (values 1, 3, 5, 10 or 20) 2. Maturity (1-4) 3. Scientific interest (0-2) 4. Global market dev. (0-1) 5. Competence in the technology (0-1) 6. Access to relevant markets (0-3)

7 The Radical Technology Inquirer (RTI) process 1. Identification Facilitated online discussion on Facebook 600 members, 100 active 2. Selection 100 technologies selected by the authors 3. Assessment Ranking system, 25 indicators: 1. Impact on the GVPNs (values 1, 3, 5, 10 or 20) 2. Maturity (1-4) 3. Scientific interest (0-2) 4. Global market dev. (0-1) 5. Competence in the technology (0-1) 6. Access to relevant markets (0-3) 4. Dissemination Descriptions of GVPNs Descriptions of Radical Technological Solutions Assessment in Excel-format

8 The Radical Technology Inquirer (RTI) process Technology push Market pull

9 The Technology Radar process 1. Identification Scouts from inside and outside company, international Cisco: 64 scouts, 66,000 emp. (Rohrbeck & Arnold 2006, Boe-Lillegraven & Monterde 2014)

10 The Technology Radar process 1. Identification Scouts from inside and outside company, international Cisco: 64 scouts, 66,000 emp. 2. Selection Panel selects max. 20 techn. Categorization: 1. Completely new tech 2. Technologies with important leaps in development 3. Changes in complementary technologies 4. Rise in the awareness of the tech and its applications (Rohrbeck & Arnold 2006, Boe-Lillegraven & Monterde 2014)

11 The Technology Radar process (Rohrbeck & Arnold 2006, Boe-Lillegraven & Monterde 2014) 1. Identification Scouts from inside and outside company, international Cisco: 64 scouts, 66,000 emp. 2. Selection Panel selects max. 20 techn. Categorization: 1. Completely new tech 2. Technologies with important leaps in development 3. Changes in complementary technologies 4. Rise in the awareness of the tech and its applications 3. Assessment Assessment committee, anon. voting Ranking system, 23 indicators: 1. Market impact (0-3 x 3) 2. Technological realization potential (0-3 x 3) 3. Maturity (1-5)

12 The Technology Radar process 4. Dissemination Description of each technology and the innovations it enables Full technology profiles and business impact analysis Other complements (e.g. scenario and roadmap workshop results) The Radar Screen (Rohrbeck & Arnold 2006, Boe-Lillegraven & Monterde 2014)

13 Phases of the foresight process internal validity Cisco & DT: 3-4 rounds/year, RTI: 1 round/year 4. Implementation / DISSEMINATION 1. Strategic Intelligence / IDENTIFICATION Choice of sectors monitored Diversity of participants 2. Sense-Making / SELECTION Format of publication and access to sources Visualisation Choice of experts and editors Risk of reinforcing the beliefs of scouts and decision-makers 3. Selecting Priorities / ASSESSMENT Anonymous voting and argumentation Choice of ranking system and indicators (Figure modified from Kuusi, Cuhls & Steinmüller 2015)

14 Results of the process external validity Validity criterion (scale: 0-6) 1: Wide scope of possible future paths 2: Most relevant future paths 3: Covering explanation of past facts 4: Most relevant past facts are explained 5: Many people understand the map/simple visualization 6: Relevant experts understand the map Radical Technology Inquirer (RTI) Technology Radar Recently Possible Possible Strategic Intelligence / Identification 2. Sense-Making / Selection 3. Selecting Priorities / Assessment