When the novelty fades - What role does fragile stabilisation play for regional energy transitions?

Transcription

1 When the novelty fades - What role does fragile stabilisation play for regional energy transitions? Regional Studies Association Winter Conference London, United Kingdom 15th November 2018 Camilla Chlebna and Jannika Mattes 1

2 Context Transformation of systems of production and consumption required (Markard et al., 2012), but highly complex and not well unterstood (Rotmans & Loorbach, 2009) transition studies Energy transition in small scale regions (Coutard & Rutherford, 2010; Mattes et al., 2015) Decentralisation (Sperling et al., 2011) Regions not isolated: inter-territorial links (Storper, 2010), multi-scalarity (Binz & Truffer, 2017), temporally sensitive (Sovacool, 2016) relational perspective 2

3 Three dimensions of regional energy transitions Socio-institutional dimension Limited understanding of actual interaction between agents and institutions (Bathelt & Glückler, 2003) Relative under-appreciation of role of institutionalisation (Barnes et al, 2018) Temporal dimension Phase models of transition (i.a. Rotmans et al., 2001) Focus on early stages of transition ( innovation studies), but recent interest in later stages (maturity, phase-out) (Kungl & Geels, 2018; Rogge & Johnstone, 2017) Spatial dimension Mostly focused on national level, but increasing recognition of essential role of region in transition process (Coutard & Rutherford, 2010) 3

4 Research Questions Which phases of social interaction constitute regional energy transitions? And what role does fragile stabilisation play for their continuation? 4

5 Phases of transition: Social dynamics Initiation Expansion Consolidation Fragile new order Distributed innovation activities, small scale, often not connected, no formal interaction personal relations matter most. Upscaling as technologies diffuse, routinisation substitutes ad-hoc decision-making, cautious emergence of (in)formal structures. Tipping point fragility!? Geographical reach widens, aims and goals of agents homogenise, exploitation of synergies, formalization of coordinating organisations Risk of complacency as transition is taken as matter of course, technologies perceived as mature, connections and inter-dependencies essential. 5

6 Institutions Agents Initiation Expansion Consolidation Fragile new order Driving actors and activities: Socio-technical coevolution: Driving actors and activities: Socio-technical coevolution: Driving actors and activities: Socio-technical coevolution: Distributed Actors regard Additional Competition both Established actors Coordination and activities by socio-technical activities and between existing who increasingly bundling of individuals novelties as agents emerge and emerging interact and activities to exploit complementing as technological technologies and collaborate synergies or small the prevailing solution diffuses agents as well as locally and Recently communities, technological Conflicts and amongst emerging regionally established regime frictions technologies and often private Pioneering technologies between agents between agents with limited agents either about direction perceived as awareness of move on or of change having become others embed regime Space and scalarity: themselves in Initiatives tend to be small scale and Space and scalarity: Upscaling of emerging institutional Space and scalarity: isolated existing Scalarity structures initiatives increases Mostly locally Spatial reach Spatial reach rooted agents Common practices emerge, but little Established routines and stable practices may expand with clear New socio-technical also beyond agreement on their form or on shared are amended in support of new from local to the regional home-based rules (not yet institutionalised) technologies and agents regional level constellations stabilise as level mission (local Reliance on local personal leadership) Routinisation substitutes ad hoc shared rules and perceptions are established amongst the participants contacts but no formalised decision-making and personal Homogenisation of aims and goals facilitates contacts structures harmonious co-existence of variety of Increasing interaction and cooperation agents in the region amongst agents from different initiatives in the region Informal coordination formalises Mainly informal interrelations, but into organisations which also cautious emergence of formal structures communicate on behalf of the sector Driving actors and Socio-technical activities: coevolution: Established actors Enthusiasm and activities amongst users Some agents and consumers withdraw and may drop as new ones may still emerge Risk of complacen novelty fades Adaptability and flexibility crucial: cy as agents strategies include take transition exploration of new as a matter of markets nationally Space and scalarity: and course Diffusion of internationally, recently collaboration, introduced integration with technological other sectors solutions Newly established shared rules and Uptake practices need to provide the widening necessary stability whilst continuing to allow superior, new solutions to be developed Institutions around organised interaction stabilise but are weakened if too many regional agents disengage Pro-active policy support may decrease or even cease Connections and interdependencies between communities and amongst sectors become essential 6 beyond region

7 Fragile new order Nimbus of novelty fades Risk of complacency amongst established agents the overall transition process may slow down or even reverse Tipping point occurs Proposition In the fragile new order the institutional arrangements and the way agents cope with them condition whether a next wave of transitional activity can occur or not. 7

8 Empirical evidence: The wind sector in Oldenburg inhabitants Small industry base, public sector and service sector dominate University very important for local economy High share of renewable energy (RE) in the region 55.5 % in Lower-Saxony, 31.3 % in Germany [2015] Foto: Ra Boe / Wikipedia / License: Creative Commons CC-by-sa-3.0 de; Map: NordNordWest / Wikipedia / License: Creative Commons by-sa-3.0 de 8

9 Methodological proceedings REENEA project on Regional Energy Transitions Funded by DFG (German Research Foundation) for five years Team of four interdisciplinary researchers Oldenburg case study 28 semi-structured interviews Participative observation at meetings of the regional RE network Document analysis 9

10 Phases of (wind) energy transition in Oldenburg Initiation Expansion Consolidation Fragile new order Mister X [director] was also there and he said: We cannot wait any longer for the ministry. As XY [regional energy provider] we will give you funding so you can get started Of course there was the period of storm and stress after the renewable energy law in It was ideal, the remuneration was large. This was an impulse on all levels.? A very important difference is the stability. That you don t have to worry whether you will still be able to find employment in this area in three years. [ ] the market has consolidated in recent years and many companies did not survive and it becomes more and more important to seek close collaboration with other companies [ ]. Either you fight and end up at the court or you try to cooperate in projects to ensure that everyone gets a piece of the cake

11 Fragile new order in Oldenburg Agents Some companies withdraw from the renewable energy network, other agents are well embedded and their expertise is established and relied upon Nobody can do this alone. Only if we manage Wind technology is increasingly perceived as mature and even regime technology to get the players together and to develop this Companies under pressure to integrate with other sectors and collaborate to persist together, then we gain a competitive edge on the international market. Institutions Renewable energies and sustainability taken for granted as part of Oldenburg s regional image Stable interaction in the regional wind sector but risk of loss of focus and relevance if too many agents disengage Agents seem to respond by adapting, collaborating, integrating next transition wave likely in Oldenburg 11

12 Conclusions Transition dynamics can be illustrated by looking at agents and institutions. Dynamics heavily dependent on phase of transition wave and do not end with consolidation: Beyond the initial socio-technical shift, the new order is still fragile: past innovations are perceived as mature novelty fades institutionalised interaction and routinisation of practices agents embed themselves or move on a tipping point occurs next wave of innovative activity or not Example of Oldenburg shows that re-adjustments are critical to persist in the fragile new order. But: potentially very different findings in different regions 12

13 Thank you for your attention! Camilla Chlebna and Jannika Mattes uol.de/en/sociologyofeuropeansocieties/research/regional-energy-transition/ REENEA Regional Energy Transition Inter-disciplinary project funded by DFG Emmy Noether program (German Research Foundation project reference ) 13

14 Bibliography I Barnes, J., Durrant, R., Kern, F. and MacKerron, G. (2018), The institutionalisation of sustainable practices in cities: how initiatives shape local selection environments, Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions. Bathelt, H. and Glückler, J. (2003), Toward a relational economic geography, Journal of Economic Geography, Vol. 3 No. 2, pp Binz, C. and Truffer, B. (2017), Global Innovation Systems. A conceptual framework for innovation dynamics in transnational contexts, Research Policy, Vol. 46 No. 7, pp Coutard, Olivier; Rutherford, Jonathan (2010): Energy transition and city region planning: understanding the spatial politics of systemic change. In: Technology Analysis & Strategic Management 22 (6), S Geels, F.W. (2010), Ontologies, socio-technical transitions (to sustainability), and the multi-level perspective. Special Section on Innovation and Sustainability Transitions, Research Policy, Vol. 39 No. 4, pp Kungl, G. and Geels, F.W. (2018), Sequence and alignment of external pressures in industry destabilisation: Understanding the downfall of incumbent utilities in the German energy transition ( ), Environmental Innovation and Societal Transitions, Vol. 26, pp Markard, J., Raven, R. and Truffer, B. (2012), Sustainability transitions: An emerging field of research and its prospects, Research Policy, Vol. 41 No. 6, pp

15 Bibliography II Mattes, J., Huber, A. and Koehrsen, J. (2015), Energy transitions in small-scale regions. What we can learn from a regional innovation systems perspective, Energy Policy, Vol. 78, pp Rogge, K.S. and Johnstone, P. (2017), Exploring the role of phase-out policies for low-carbon energy transitions: The case of the German Energiewende, Energy Research & Social Science, Vol. 33, pp Rotmans, J., Kemp, R. and van Asselt, M. (2001), More evolution than revolution: transition management in public policy, Foresight, Vol. 3 No. 1, pp Rotmans, J. and Loorbach, D. (2009), Complexity and Transition Management, Journal of Industrial Ecology, Vol. 13 No. 2, pp Sovacool, B.K. (2016), How long will it take? Conceptualizing the temporal dynamics of energy transitions, Energy Research & Social Science, Vol. 13, pp Sperling, K., Hvelplund, F. and Mathiesen, B.V. (2011), Centralisation and decentralisation in strategic municipal energy planning in Denmark, Energy Policy, Vol. 39 No. 3, pp Storper, M. (2010), The regional world: Territorial development in a global economy, Perspectives on economic change, 2. [print.], Guilford Press, New York. 15