SPACE TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH & ORGANIZATION THEORY RESEARCH

Transcription

1 SPACE TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH & ORGANIZATION THEORY RESEARCH ENGAGING DISPARATE COMMUNITIES FOR BUSINESS & ECONOMIC RESEARCH IN THE SPACE INDUSTRY Ken Davidian, FAA AST Director of Research, presentation to the HBS Working Group on Business and Economics of Space, 3-4 November 2017 Ken is the sole author and owner of content pertaining to his doctoral research. 1 1

2 FIRST OF ALL: THE SPACE INDUSTRY Earth Observation Satellite Communications Space Science Launch Services Security Satellite Navigation Human Spaceflight Space Manufacturing Debris Removal Euroconsult, & GIFAS. (2015). Perspectives Spatiales Paris, France. Retrieved from files/perspectives_spatiales_2015_-_proceedings.pdf. INDUSTRY RISK MATRIX Chakravarthy, B. S. (1985). Business-government partnership in emerging industries: Lessons from the American synfuels experience. Advances in Strategic Management, 3,

3 PART 1 3

4 TEN UNIVERSITIES, ASSOCIATE & AFFILIATE MEMBERS 4

5 FOUR RESEARCH AREAS & RESEARCH ROAD MAP 5

6 INTERNATIONAL ACTIVITIES IN INDUSTRY VIABILITY RESEARCH COE CST ESIL Workshops Game Theory PARTS Analysis $pace is Business (started in 2012) Winning Papers Najam, A. (2012). Game theory analysis for the suborbital reusable launch vehicle research market. Yeh, J., & Revay, D. (2014). Price per pound: A poor predictor for future growth in the Commercial satellite and launch industries. Belingheri, P., & Leone, M. I. (2015). Licensing as a tool to encourage technology transfer from space. Entrena, E.-U. C. M. (2016). Asteroid-COTS: developing the cislunar economy with private-public partnerships. 6

7 INDUSTRY VIABILITY RESEARCH IN THE NEW SPACE JOURNAL Official Journal of the COE CST Volume 6 starts in 2018 Editor: Scott Hubbard Editorial Board and Authors: Many in the room ~28 articles about IP, insurance, market structure, economic impact, banking, etc. 7

8 PART 2 INDUSTRY-LEVEL ACCUMULATION MODEL PROCESSES OF INDUSTRY EMERGENCE 8

9 PHENOMENON Q: Why do new industries emerge? (A: Certain types of innovation) Q: What defines a new industry? (A: No incumbents) Q: How (by what processes) do industries emerge? Q: Why do industries take so long to emerge? Q: How can industry emergence be accelerated? THIS RESEARCH PROPOSES INDUSTRY-LEVEL PROCESSES TO THE ACCUMULATION MODEL OF INDUSTRY EMERGENCE 9

10 Proprietary Functions Technological Development Functions Innovation Network & Resource Channel Action Market Creat n & Consumer Demand ACCUMULATION MODEL OF INDUSTRY EMERGENCE Resource Institutional Allocations Arrangements 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Scientific- Technical Research Financial- Insurance Human Competence Pool 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Legitimation Governance Technology Standards Van de Ven, A. H., & Garud, R. B. (1989). A framework for understanding the emergence of new industries. In Research on Technological Innovation, Management and Policy (Vol. 4, pp ). Greenwich, CT: JAI Press. 10

11 CONTRIBUTING LITERATURE 11

12 RESEARCH CONTEXT: HUMAN SUBORBITAL SPACE TRANSPORTATION INDUSTRY 12

13 HSSTI COMMUNITY NETWORK 13

14 Methodology Research paradigm: Scientific realism Qualitative methods Process (not variance) study Inductive reasoning Grounded theory extension Longitudinal case study Historic event analysis Unit of analysis: event Level of analysis: population (industry) SOLUTION Data Secondary sources Non-gov t space news aggregator sites ~28,000 space entries (26 April 1999-now) ~8,400 suborbital space incidents ~600 events Archival data Press releases, publicly available government documents, conference presentations, news media reports, editorials and commentaries, etc. Primary sources 40 interviews, one-hour each, recorded, transcribed, coded 14

15 THE ORIGINAL ACCUMULATION MODEL CONSTRUCT Van de Ven, A. H., & Garud, R. B. (1989). A framework for understanding the emergence of new industries. In Research on Technological Innovation, Management and Policy (Vol. 4, pp ). Greenwich, CT: JAI Press. 15

16 FINDINGS 16

17 INDUSTRY-LEVEL ACCUMULATION MODEL PROCESSES OF INDUSTRY EMERGENCE 17

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