Learning to see the Forest and the Trees (A systematic approach to driving innovation) Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson Chief Innovation Officer IBM

Transcription

1 Learning to see the Forest and the Trees (A systematic approach to driving innovation) Dr. Bernard S. Meyerson Chief Innovation Officer IBM Corporation

2 Why Innovate? What is the most important capability required for growth? Ability to innovate Ability to allocate the best talent Ability to manage a global organization Ability to allocate capital Ability to manage increasing regulation costs Source: McKinsey survey of 9,345 global executives 07 2

3 3 Why Innovate? What is the most important capability required for growth? Ability to innovate Ability to allocate the best talent Ability to manage a global organization Ability to allocate capital Ability to manage increasing regulation costs Source: McKinsey survey of 9,345 global executives 07 McKinsey Global Survey 2010: 84% of executives say Innovation is extremely or very important to their companies growth strategy

4 Key Elements of Sustainable Innovation A short list of Essentials 4

5 Essential #1: People (T-Shaped Innovators) Requirement: Deep, Expert-Thinking, with Broad Complex-Communications Skills Many disciplines (understanding & communications) Broad across many Many team-oriented projects completed (resume: outcomes, accomplishments & awards) Deep in one discipline (analytic thinking & problem solving) Many systems (understanding & communications) Deep in one system (analytic thinking & problem solving) Deep in at least one 5

6 Feeding the Arborists:-}) Talented techies deserve rock star treatment: IBM BARRIE McKENNA, OTTAWA The Globe and Mail Published Tuesday, Nov , 5:53 PM EST Last updated Tuesday, Nov , 5:55 PM EST Canada and the United States need to get back to treating and compensating their leading Technology creators like rock stars, says IBM s global head of innovation. An economy is only as good as its supply of talent, explained Bernard Meyerson, International Business Machine Corp. s vice president of innovation and relations with universities. Physical infrastructure is nice to have, but without good people, you get awful results. 6

7 Essential #2: Infrastructure 7

8 The World is Now Our Laboratory Almaden Austin Watson Zurich Haifa India China Pangoo Tokyo Brazil Nairobi IBM Research Lab (Trees->Forests) Global, Smarter Planet Collaborations (Forests->Timber) 8

9 Essential #3: Dynamics 9

10 Innovators Too Must Evolve; From Inward Looking to Global, Client Focused Experts 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s Corporate Collaborative Work on client Create business funded Team problems advantage for clients Technology Shared agenda Industry-focused transfer Effectiveness research 2010s Collaborative partnerships Emerging markets Research in the Marketplace Joint Programs Centrally Funded Collaborative Innovation Global Collaboration Inter-disciplinary collaboration in the market and across the globe 10

11 Creating Innovations That Matter Also Takes Diversity In Approach 11

12 Innovations That Changed History Carbon Nanotubes (2003) High Temperature Superconductivity (1987) Blue Gene/L (2004) Deep Blue (1997) Cell (2005) Speech Recognition (1971)) RISC (1980) Copper Interconnect Wiring (1997) Fortran (1957) SiGe (1994) RAMAC (1956) Fractals (1967) First Petaflop Supercomputer (2008) One Transistor Memory Cell (1966) 12 Relational Database (1970) Scanning Tunneling Microscope (1986) Nano MRI (2009) 2014 IBM Corporation

13 Innovations That Changed History Carbon Nanotubes (2003) High Temperature Superconductivity (1987) Blue Gene/L (2004) Deep Blue (1997) Cell (2005) Speech Recognition (1971)) RISC (1980) There is great power Fortran in (1957) Copper Interconnect Wiring (1997) SiGe (1994) Discontinuous Innovation RAMAC (1956) Fractals (1967) First Petaflop Supercomputer (2008) One Transistor Memory Cell (1966) 13 Relational Database (1970) Scanning Tunneling Microscope (1986) Nano MRI (2009) 2014 IBM Corporation

14 Continuous Innovation Skills Beyond The AHA! Moment Never Undervalue Ongoing Innovation Disk Drives If IBM had not continued to innovate in this field, today s laptops would weigh approximately? IBM Corporation

15 Continuous Innovation Skills Beyond The AHA! Moment Never Undervalue Ongoing Innovation Disk Drives If IBM had not continued to innovate in this field, today s laptops would weigh approximately 250,000 Tons x IBM Corporation

16 Continuous and Discontinuous Innovation Computations per second / $1000 1E+12 1E+9 1E+6 1E+3 1E+0 1E-3 1E-5 Mechanical Electro- Mechanical Vacuum Tube Discrete Transistor Integrated Circuit IBM Corporation

17 Continuous and Discontinuous Innovation Computations per second / $1000 1E+12 1E+9 1E+6 1E+3 1E+0 1E-3 1E-5 Mechanical Electro- Mechanical Vacuum Tube Discrete Transistor Integrated Circuit Moore s Slaw? IBM Corporation

18 One Must Also Engage Universities; They Create The Next Generation of Innovators Who Then Drive Global Prosperity 18

19 A Diversity of Staff And Disciplines Enables World Class Innovation Behavioral Science Chemistry Computer Science Electrical Engineering Materials Science Mathematical Science Physics Service Science Science & Business & Engineering Management Technology Innovation Business Innovati on Social Innovation Demand Innovation Social & Cognitive Sciences Economic s & Markets 19 19

20 Challenge to Inspire, BUT; If You Want Greatness, Pick Great Challenges e.g. Propose the ultimate forest

21 A Truly Grand Challenge (Circa 1961) Project Mercury Capsule Source: NASA.gov The All-Time Grand Challenge: On May 25th,1961, President Kennedy announced his decision to challenge NASA with landing a man on the moon and returning him safely to earth before the end of the decade 21

22 What followed was one of the richest periods of technology innovation in our nations history. Kennedy showed engineers the forest and ended up with trees of unimaginable value.

23 Apollo was NOT the only example of that strategy IBM Corporation

24 Driving Innovation; Grand Challenges 27 Years Later In 2008 We Asked The IBM Community To Identify Global, Societal, Grand Challenges Innovation Jam 2008-Crowd Sourcing the Future 24

25 Global Challenge: Feeding the Planet In the U.S., before reaching the consumer, a typical carrot has traveled 1,600 miles, a potato 1,200 miles, a chuck roast 600 miles with grocers and consumers throwing away $48 billion worth of food every year 25

26 Global Challenge: Food Eliminating the millions of tons of food thrown away annually in the US and UK could lift more than a billion people out of hunger worldwide 26

27 Global Challenge: Healthcare $475->750 Billion US Estimated U.S. healthcare spending each year on administrative and clinical waste, fraud and abuse and other waste Million Errors in the way medications are prescribed, delivered and taken harm 1.5 million people in the U.S. every year. 2 27

28 The Global Issues That Were Identified Here Drove the Creation of Entirely New Fields of Science and Technology. Over Time These Will Change The Face of Society As We Know It 28

29 One Example (It s all I have time for, take my word there are MANY MORE) 29

30 Data Baby Project; Life-Changing Outcomes from Big Data University of Ontario Institute of Technology Research Project to monitor and premature infants in the ICU at Sick Children s Hospital Correlating blood oxygenation with blood pressure to predict Baby crashing Nosocomial Infection Prediction Monitoring heart rate variability with other information to predict sepsis System was shown able to warn of life threatening sepsis up to 24 hours earlier than experienced ICU Nurses Sources Files, TCP Sockets On-the-fly stream computing InfoSphere Streams Persist/Enrich Persist stream data soliddb ODBC/JDBC/SA soliddb, DB2, IDS InfoSphere Warehouse 30

31 Another Really SMALL, But No Less Grand Challenge 31

32 Progress has been Astonishing Every generation of technology enabled remarkable outcomes 45 Years, 62M x RAM Apollo 11: 2048 words RAM (16-bit word)-> ~4KB 36,864 words ROM How Much More of Moore? Average Smart Phone: 256 MB 512 MB Cache 2 GB 64 GB RAM 32

33 Example; For Almost 5 Decades We Have Relied Upon Moore s Law For Exponential Improvements in Silicon Technology, However If automobiles were like chips 1970: 15 miles per gallon 1980: 1,500 miles per gallon 1990: 150,000 miles per gallon This is seeing ONLY the trees. 2000: 15 Million miles per gallon 2010: 150 Million miles per gallon : 1 Billion mpg miles per gallon 2015 IBM Corporation

34 Challenge; How Can You Tell the World is Different? Elements Employed in Silicon Technology Before 90 s 90 s through 2005 Beyond

35 Coming Soon Information Technology in the Post-Silicon Era Silicon transistors will dominate Information Technology for decades to come, but contribute little to its progress. At 186,000 miles per second, light is far too slow, so we will need to fix that problem. Fundamentally new system architectures consisting of specialized hardware, software, and network functionality, will/must emerge to compensate. We arrived here by ignoring the Forest 35

36 Dealing with the forest; If you can t make light faster, Integrate Everything 36

37 The Next Several Decades of Innovation; Scale-in by 3-D Integration Switching Scale In By 3D Chip Bonding Memory Storage Processor System in a Stack 37

38 Grand Challenge; If Moore s Law Has Run Its Course, Where Does The Next Factor Of A Million In Performance Come From?

39 Embracing Exponential Change To Provide Vast Computational Horsepower Accelerator Platform Agile Computation Starts From The CPU HPC Workloads Seismic Simulations Offline Portfolio Valuation CPU Non Real-time Apps Network Appliance Platform Processing data hot off the network CPU FPGA GPU Database Acceleration Compressed Memory Data Mining GPU CPU FPGA FPGA Storage Appliance Platform Pushing computation near data GPU New Hardware New Software New Architecture Self-Optimization New Applications New Security Issues NEW SYSTEM 39

40 At The End Of The Day There Exists A Proven Strategy For Success ; Grand Challenges Can Serve As The Ultimate Drivers of Innovation 40

41 What s Next?

42 Future Challenge; Healthcare Complexity; Dying of Thirst In An Ocean of Data Medicine has become too complex. Only about 20% of the knowledge clinicians use today is evidence-based. Steven Shapiro Chief Medical & Scientific Officer University Pittsburgh Medical Center 42

43 Future Challenge: IT Architectural Complexity Problem Discovery and Remediation Is Incredibly Difficult IT teams cannot identify application and infrastructure dependencies as integration becomes global. Actual application architecture encountered in engagement with an IBM client 43

44 What Happens When Data Complexity and Velocity Overwhelm Us? 44

45 To Deal With This One Must Step So Far Back As To See The Entire Globe, As Even Seeing The Forest Does Not Suffice 45

46 Cognitive Systems; The Next Wave Of Innovation 46

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48 Welcome to the dawn of the Cognitive Era.

49 AI: Artificial Intelligence AI: Accessible Intelligence AI: Augmented Intelligence

50 Compassion Intuition Design Value judgments Common sense

51 Deep Learning Discovery Large-scale math Fact checking

52 Compassion Intuition Human Design Value judgments Common sense + Deep Learning Discovery Machine Large-scale math Fact checking

53 What Does Cognitive Innovation Look Like, and Does It Inspire? 53

54 Play the Video at this website 54

55 Creating AND Sustaining An Innovation Culture In A Globally Integrated Enterprise The IBM Fellow Program Wild Ducks Executive Air Cover It s Why I m Still Employed, And What I Do As Giveback Break Glass, Just Make Sure You Do It For The Right Reason The IBM Academy of Technology Radical Coopetition University Relations Think Fridays FOAK - First Of A Kind SPEED It s Not A Damn Acronym 55