The Annual Heriot-Watt/MWH/ICE Prestige Lecture on Resilience: Getting into Shape

Transcription

1 Institution of Civil Engineers 1 December 2014 The Annual Heriot-Watt/MWH/ICE Prestige Lecture on Resilience: Getting into Shape Heriot-Watt MWH ICE Prestige Lecture

2 Welcome David Balmforth President Institution of Civil Engineers

3 Overview David A Smith Chief Strategy Officer MWH Global

4 Getting into Shape Paul Jowitt Professor of Civil Engineering Systems Heriot-Watt University

5 4 days later: Christchurch knocked out of shape

6 Putting things back into shape. (Stronger Christchurch Infrastructure Rebuild Team) Resilience: the ability of a system to withstand or quickly recover from significant disruption

7 A simpler time A more shapeless time? Skara Brae, Orkney 3000BC

8 The Stone Age: When misery was spread equally Percentage of World's Toilets BC AD Percentage of World Population

9 NEW DELHI, March 14, 2012 Half of India's homes have cellphones, but not toilets

10 Pompeii and Herculaneum Fast food on the run Honey, cheese, dates, olives Lentil Stew Mulled Spiced Wine MIHI AD THERMOPOLIUM (Meet me at the Cafe)

11 London, 1666

12 Lisbon, 1755 Earthquake resistant buildings Gaiola Pombalina - the Pombaline Cage

13 Bazalgette and Hawksley Drainage, sewerage and clean water supplies for the masses

14 Birmingham Glasgow Manchester Leeds Bradford Victorian City Powerhouses

15

16

17 Apollo 13: Houston we have a problem - the importance of knowing how to do stuff. and do it quickly

18 Artisanal skills Steve McQueen fixing a radio HRH Princess Elizabeth changing a tyre

19 Fishermen in Banda Aceh Backyard Pit Latrine in Christchurch, NZ

20 Lifting the spirit Shaping the soul with cardboard

21 A review following the 2010 and 2011 Earthquakes in NZ

22 What to expect?

23 Hurricane Katrina Resilience is more than just seeing it coming...

24 Grid versus non-grid?

25 Met Office opens UK's first space weather forecasting centre

26 Keeping the lights on. Big Grid capacity We are now seeing the consequence of the lack of investment a few years ago, We are in this position because of a previous lack of policy, and clarity and commitment from government. Craig McMaster MWH

27 Connectivity. and the Emergent Properties of the Brain

28 Emergent Properties: 3 carrier bags of food and wine. Jeremy Clarkson Gordon Ramsay Pablo Picasso

29 Sir Alfred Pugsley IStructE Past President ICE Hon Fellow Understanding the nature and causes of failure Report on Ronan Point

30 Ronan Point

31 Straight Lines and Bright Colours Piet Mondrian Composition with Red, Yellow and Blue (1930)

32 Socrates I drink, I smoke and I think

33 Plato and Socrates How can we ever learn what we do not know?.. Either we already know what we are looking for, in which case we don't need to look.. or we don't know what we're looking for, in which case we wouldn't recognise it if we found it.

34 What do we know? and what do we need to know? Known unknowns Known knowns Unknown unknowns Unknown knowns

35 Rumsfeld cuts Pentagon red tape 10 th Sept 2001

36 9/11 calculations?? chances of 4 planes crashing into 4 major buildings within 500 miles in 24 hrs??

37 The Perfect Storm to the Scheiße Sturm Urbanisation Population Food security Poverty alleviation Energy demand Climate change Water demand Terrorism Infectious diseases Biodiversity (Sir John Beddington) Plus Political instability at a range of scales Over-dependency on (wireless) technologies Unstable networks of networks Unknown emergent properties and modes of failure

38 Networks of Everything Infrastructure Networks Natural Networks Social Networks Internet of Things Connected devices 40 billion by 2020 per person 5.18

39 We have become a grand motherboard

40 Sustainable Agriculture

41 Infrastructure Effective, Efficient, Reliable Resilient Equitable

42 ICE VP Keith Clarke: "We are at the threshold of a different risk profile. The old view of infrastructure 24/7 just isn't going to work"

43

44 Flood defence spending has fallen by 10% over course of this government leaving half of the country s defences with minimal maintenance NAO report

45

46 HS2: Euston, we have a problem High Speed Rail? I wouldn t start from here. George Stephenson

47 Post Referendum storm When shall we 3 meet again?

48 from Economies of Scale to Economies of Scope

49 Best bet for Resilience? BIM or the Favelas? Sir David King: Infrastructure is seen as separate units. We must, in the future, see cities as networks of systems

50 Mapping the Void Citizen cartographers (Internet Artisans) 2010 Haiti Earthquake: US students started mapping all the post-disaster information they could find on-line to assist the rescue and relief services.

51 from Whitehall to City Hall

52 from State of the Nation to the Shaping of the World?

53 Population Growth Nigeria UAE Russia USA by continent India Fertility UK China Income

54 Population Growth

55 ice in a box Assisting engineers worldwide to develop their professional institutions and machinery of government to provide effective infrastructure delivery systems.

56 UN Sustainable Development Goals GOAL 9: Build resilient infrastructure, promote inclusive and sustainable industrialisation and foster innovation

57 Civil engineering. the Art of working with the great sources of Power in Nature for the use and benefit of society Adapted from Tredgold 1818 ICE SD Guidelines Task Group 2003

58 Getting into Shape. so that stuff works and people are happy

59 Shaping the World... so that stuff works and people are happy

60 Institution of Civil Engineers 1 December 2014 The Annual Heriot-Watt/MWH/ICE Prestige Lecture on Resilience: Getting into Shape Heriot-Watt MWH ICE Prestige Lecture

61 Questions and discussion Chaired by: David Balmforth President Institution of Civil Engineers

62 Closing remarks David Balmforth President Institution of Civil Engineers

63 Recorded lecture To access a recording of this evening s presentation please visit:

64 Drinks reception