2018 PEDG 6/25/2018

Transcription

1 2018 PEDG 6/25/2018

2 Agenda The Grand Challenge Existing Solutions Today Challenges and Opportunities Competition Overview Competition Judging

3 The Grand Challenge

4 Energy The Foundation of Development 3 Billion people live in energy poverty, including 1.1 Billion people without any access to electricity Source: World Bank - State of Electricity Access Report 2017

5 Think Beyond Connections Source: World Bank Universal access to affordable, reliable and modern energy services presentation

6 Think Beyond Connections Source: ESMAP Beyond Connections Energy Access Redefined

7 So Where Are We? Energy needs met using off-grid solar solutions (according to SE4All methodology) Only 1.8 million people have tier 2 access Deployment needs to be scaled a ~1000-fold! Source: 2016 Global Off-Grid Solar Market Report Semi-Annual Sales and Impact Data

8 What If We Did More Of The Same? People who could be delivered electricity viably using today s technology have already been delivered. Typical off-grid communities are: Rural, sparse Earning less than $2/day Have virtually no access to conventional financial services Doing more of the same does not provide more people with electricity. New technologies and strategies are required! Source: CLASP - The State of the Global Off-Grid Appliance Market

9 What If We Did More Of The Same? 95% of utilities in the Sub-Saharan Africa cannot recover their operational and capital costs Doing more of the same is financially unsustainable. New technologies and strategies are required! Source: World Bank - Making Power Affordable for Africa and Viable for Its Utilities

10 Gross CO2 emission (Gt) What If We Did More Of The Same? What if the unelectrified 1.1 Billion people consumed energy using today s technology? 3.7 Gt CO 2 emissions/year, an absolute environmental disaster! Doing more of the same is environmentally unsustainable. New technologies and strategies are required! No Access Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3 Tier 4 Tier 5 OECD Avg

11 10 The Grand Challenge 3 Billion people live in energy poverty, including 1.1 Billion people without any access to electricity People who could be delivered electricity viably using today s technology have already been delivered Share of population without grid access (percentage) 95% of utilities in the Sub-Saharan Africa cannot recover their operational and capital costs Solving energy access using today s technology would result in 3.7 Gt of excess CO 2 emissions an absolute environmental disaster Philanthropy is not scalable, self-sustaining commercial solutions are needed Only 1.8 million people have tier 2 access (200 Wh<) using off-grid electric services Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance. Figures refer to 2012 data [1] More of the same may not be the answer; new technologies and strategies are required to scale deployment a ~1000-fold!

12 Existing Solutions Today

13 State Of The Art In Electricity Service National grids struggle to reach dispersed, small, and poor communities. Mini-grids and microgrids struggle with reliable operation, maintenance without trained field personnel. Solar home systems struggle to supply large loads, balance loads, have high COE, capital intensive, not easily expandable. Source: World Bank - State of Electricity Access Report 2017

14 Nobody Wants Electrons, People Want Services Source: CLASP 2017 Off-grid appliance market survey

15 The Development Curve Today Source: CLASP - The State of the Global Off-Grid Appliance Market

16 Productive Uses Of Electricity Creates New Opportunities!

17 The Challenge With Larger Appliances Source: CLASP - The State of the Global Off-Grid Appliance Market

18 The Ruling Payment Model: Pay-as-you-go Source: The 2018 Global Off-Grid Solar Market Trends Report

19 Investment In Energy Efficiency Pays Off! Source: A. Jacobson: Technical Advances in the Off-Grid Solar Sector Presentation

20 Challenges and Opportunities

21 State of the Art cost effective and reliable HOW DO WE IMPROVE ON A TECHNOLOGY THAT IS OPTIMIZED & COST REDUCED OVER 100+ YEARS? - Utility model developed at a time of slow mechanical governor controls dynamic controls? - Requires big investment in central generation and T&D infrastructure build as needed? - Economies only at large scale generation at 100 s of MW, transmission at >100 s kv, integrated resource planning, complex control, trained staff reduce asset/personnel cost? - Delivers low-cost and high-reliability ($0.10/kWhr) at large scale deliver at small scale? - The cost of delivering power from central generation to poor and/or sparse communities at the edge is very high reduce T&D build, use decentralized resources? - Individual consumer has no visibility or incentive to manage consumption, results in asset overbuild to guarantee supply real-time pricing to allow source/load balancing? - Focus on reliability regardless of service level, results in overbuild of assets, poor asset utilization, and high operational costs to cover contingencies varying service levels?

22 The Best Opportunity May Be Exponential Technologies! Examples of exponential technologies: Computation, PV solar, wind, power semiconductors, storage, microcontrollers, communication technologies, online services, social media, mobile pay, block-chain

23 Innovation Opportunities NEW BUSINESS MODELS New service, lease, billing, and microfinance models SCALABILITY Deployment across multiple regions with minor customization CARBON NEUTRAL or low carbon footprint solutions EXPANDABILITY Systems grow with growing needs DISTRIBUTION DESIGNED FOR THE LAST MILE Supply chain, distribution, installation, commissioning, servicing costs DATA ANALYTICS Value to external stakeholders (e.g. credit risk monitoring) ENABLING DIGITAL AND FINANCIAL INCLUSION New customer income opportunities & new revenue streams for the provider DEVICE MONITORING Diagnostics, upsell, asset tracking, managing end-of-life REGIONAL EMPOWERMENT Support local business development WOW! FACTOR Disruptive game-changers

24 Competition Overview

25 IEEE Empower A Billion Lives IEEE Empower a Billion Lives (EBL) is a biennial global competition (starting 2018) organized by the IEEE Power Electronics Society to crowdsource regionally relevant innovation to accelerate deployment of energy access solutions around the world. The Goal of the Competition: Foster interdisciplinary innovation in the global community to develop and demonstrate solutions to electricity access that are designed to scale, regionally relevant, holistic, and leverage 21st century technologies that feature exponentially declining prices

26 Target Solutions A proposed solution should address the entire power generation, delivery and management system, including the physical, technical, social and business elements needed to operate the system sustainably. Solutions should provide the equivalent of ESMAP Tier 2 access in terms of functionality enabled, which is a minimum of 50 watts (for 30 minutes), or more than 200 watt-hours per day, with 4h/day availability. The competition does not cover design of new generation sources or appliances, although those can be a part of an overall system design.

27 Low Energy Use and High Energy Use Families Rated Power (W) HIGH ENERGY USE FAMILY? LOW ENERGY USE FAMILY? No access ,000 Energy delivered (Wh)

28 Low Energy Use and High Energy Use Families Rated Power (W) HIGH ENERGY USE FAMILY min. 700 Wh or 130 W max Wh or 200 W High Energy Use Family LOW ENERGY USE FAMILY min. 200 Wh or 50 W max. 500 Wh or 120 W Low Energy Use Family No access ,000 Energy delivered (Wh)

29 Target Customer Qualification Requirement: The proposed set of products or services have to meet customer s growing needs. Anticipate that a target family may start below a Tier 2 level, but may grow over several years to Tier 2 levels of consumption. The solution should be able to meet the energy needs of the Target Household and the Target Community through this journey. Target Community: homes per community with low population density Average purchasing power $1500/year per household Currently off-grid with little to no penetration of solar lanterns (Tier 0-1) Possibility of a poor grid on a 7-10 year horizon for some locations Mostly residential and agricultural, some small commercial, light manufacturing activities present seeking to transition to a community with much higher income earning potential Less than 50% of households have bank accounts, and less than 30% have smart phones

30 Target Customer Target Household: A typical target household is five people including two parents under forty years of age, with three children under the age of 10 Parents typically have no formal education or crafts training The family s primary language is a regional language Their average income is $1.90 per person per day or $1,500 per year for the whole household. (Calculated on a purchasing power parity basis.) Child labor is not allowed.

31 Examples of Desirable Features The competition is agnostic to energy sources, technologies, business models, and will primarily evaluate potential impact and ability to rapidly and sustainably scale the solutions to a large number of customers (overall scaling to a Billion). Holistic sustainable technology-based solutions that are designed to scale Includes a business plan designed for the Base of the Pyramid Integrates communications, Pay/Go, Cybersecurity, microfinance as needed Enables economically viable electricity access for small communities Addresses challenge of managing a fleet of large number of devices Creates new income generating opportunities for target customer group Creates additional value streams for external stakeholders Utilizes carbon neutral technologies

32 Competition Rounds May - Aug 2018 Nov 2018 Jan 2019 Oct 2019 ONLINE ROUND 5 REGIONAL ROUNDS FIELD TEST FINAL ROUND South-Asia: Chennai, India, IEEE PEDES Pacific Asia: Shenzhen, China, IEEE PEAC Africa: Johannesburg, South Africa Europe: Seville, Spain Americas: Puerto Rico Baltimore, USA More than 200 IEEE volunteers participating in organizing

33 32 Competition Tracks TRACK 1: DECENTRALIZED MODEL (TR1): The proposed solution will serve single homes at the Tier 2 or equivalent level without creating an entire distribution infrastructure in advance of when it is needed. It includes two subtracks: TRACK 1 A): COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE SOLUTION (TR1A) TRACK 1 B): EMERGING SOLUTION (TR1B) TRACK 2: CENTRALIZED UTILITY MODEL (TR2): The proposed solution is a centrally planned and implemented power generation and distribution model offering the core service at the community level. It includes two subtracks: TRACK 2 A): COMMERCIALLY AVAILABLE SOLUTION (TR2A) TRACK 2 B): EMERGING SOLUTION (TR2B)

34 33 Submission Process ONLINE ROUND: Form hypothesis of proposed submission, including novelty. Understand competencies needed and identify gaps in accessible team members. Locate and recruit team. Define overall steps in completion of tasks associated with competition. Write online round proposal and record video. Select Regional Round location and Track. Submit online. REGIONAL ROUND: (FOR INVITEES ONLY) Define timeline of tasks. Design or procure devices and components. Assemble/build prototype system. Test in lab or controlled setting. Validate performance against target. Prepare presentation and demonstration for regional round.

35 Available Resources Would you like your company to be featured among our design resources? Contact us at

36 Competition Judging

37 Evaluation Criteria This Judging Rubric provides guidance for reviewers and judges who will be evaluating proposals submitted by competing teams in the Empower a Billion Lives competition. It also provides transparency and alignment between competitors and reviewers/judges. The team s success will be assessed using three factors Impact Score: measures the impact that the solution has on the family and the community, Technology Score: measures how technology is used to solve key challenges including scaling, Business Score: assesses the business model including economic viability, scaling & sustainability

38 Judging Rubric The judging process is not intended to be prescriptive, given below are some of the factors judges will consider: Table 1.1 Impact Score Table 1.2 Tech Score Table 1.3: Business Score Key Factors to Consider Key Factors to Consider Key Factors to Consider Creates Value for Family and Community Easy for Target Family to Use Affordable Meets basic LOW-ENERGY USE family residential needs Begin transition to Tier 2 family Expands to meet HIGH ENERGY USE family needs Digital inclusion and basic comforts in an energy constrained world Enhances income earning potential for single family Improves livelihood and earning capacity for the family Meets critical community needs Tr1: Interconnected single home solutions meet community needs Tr2: Utility system meets community needs Simple to deploy and use for target family Allows family to affordably meet increasing energy needs Meets family cost and service targets and expandability Flexible pricing/payments options, PAYG, subsidized payments System Specification Scalable Expandable Operations Cloud Connectivity Advanced Features Generation and energy storage Meets Tier 2 requirements Power delivery, control and monitoring Environmental footprint of system Technology enables rapid scaling and large device fleet management System expands as need grows without large upfront investment Ease of installing, commissioning, maintaining and servicing system and fleet of devices and wires (if needed) Novel low-cost communications backbone (or similar function without connectivity) System optimization and analytics Financial Model Scaling Resilient External Funding Simple financial model, including key assumptions Target is to serve two representative communities - of 100 homes, 1000 homes, where consumption grows from LOW-USE to HIGH-USE in 5 years Economic viability Billing and Collection Model Dropping prices Sporadic income streams Subsidies Novel funding models to help scaling Value for external stakeholders WOW factor WOW factor WOW factor WOW factor WOW factor WOW factor

39 Areas of Innovation EBL encourages out of the box thinking Innovation can be in any sphere that enables rapid scaling and adoption of the proposed solutions A specific area of interest is integration of technology, business, and social issues to realize holistic solutions that deliver value to the target customers Tech Innovation Biz Innovation Solutions that propose new technology or new methods of using existing technology are equally acceptable (including but not limited to; increasing end customer purchasing power, creating new funding mechanisms, etc.) Existing Tech Biz Innovation Tech Innovation Existing Business Model

40 SUBMIT YOUR PROPOSAL NOW!

41 Thank you for your attention