Foresight & Policy-Making How? FORLEARN Mutual Learning Workshop Sevilla, 8th September 2006 Olivier DA COSTA, Philine WARNKE, Fabiana SCAPOLO 1
Outline How to optimise the contribution of Foresight to Policy-Making? Context of policy-making Communication between Foresight practitionners and policy-makers Five major issues 2
Context of Policy Making Challenges of the policy- / decision-makers Under severe time pressure Information overload, not always reliable not always relevant Uncertainty, speed of change Increasing complexity of issues Multi-dimensional: S&T, cultural & social, political, economic, environmental Inter-connection, inter-dependency Multi-causal, good old fashioned control system not applicable You can never change one thing Difficulty to switch modes urgency focussed long-term overview Challenge to transmit complexity 3
Bottleneck in the communication Problematic of policy-making Black box often on a reduced basis (over)simplification and formatting for the messages to go through: indicators, ranking (universities, transparency...) Huge basis of material in the Pandora box Society, Academy, Industry 4
Three solutions Improve reception Problematic of policy-making often on a reduced basis Improve reception 5 Optimise the signal Huge basis of material in the Society, Academy, Industry Increase the bandwidth Increase the bandwidth Improve credibility Give good advises Couple qualitative with quantitative Create mechanisms of consultations at different steps of policy-making Use of the media Optimise the signal Transmit more relevant, useable and operational material Make thing interesting rather than boring Use parallel channels of attention Pictures Movies
Foresight for good policy impact Five crucial issues identified by Foresight practitioners [2 nd FORLEARN Mutual Learning Workshop Brussels April 2006] 1. Embedding Foresight in policy process 2. Adequate involvement of policy makers 3. Joining policy implementation 4. Building a reservoir of knowledge 5. Linking to choices and values 6
1 Embedding Foresight in policy process Issue Foresight outcomes are only taken onboard if they are well in phase with policy-making process If not: Clash of cultures The diversity of decision-making bodies hinders the full transmission of a holistic message Information overload Right timing Approach Careful analysis of policy-context (positions of other actors etc.) to target space of manoeuvre for the policy actor Positioning in reference to other ongoing policy processes Don t stand alone but competitive 7
2 Adequate involvement of policy makers Issue Finding the right balance of policy makers involvement into Foresight Approach On the one hand policy-makers require external and neutral advice On the other they may not, without early involvement, embrace the outcomes (Not Invented Here) Presence of policy makers may encourage lobbying rather than creative thinking Finding specific roles for policy makers in the process Windows of policy interaction & windows of seclusion 8
3 Joining policy implementation Issue Anticipatory intelligence is not easily translated into strategies Even more so if it stems from a collective process Approach Difficulty for policy makers to communicate their agenda within open process Lack of understanding about real needs of policy makers Stakeholders not in a position to develop policy strategies Jointly translating anticipatory intelligence from collective process into strategic options And: If it is in line with the specific objectives of this exercise Keeping protected spaces for creativity Not diverting collective process with the constraints of implementation 9
4 Building a reservoir of knowledge Issue Precise answers to precise questions are usually not possible on the spot, neither always desirable Approach Changing policy agenda, difficult to be in phase Different time scales: Foresight slower than policy-making Not always possible to go through the strategic counselling phase Limit the aversion against prescriptions that some policy makers have Anticipate decision-making timing Conceptualise outcomes as a reservoir of possible policy alternatives (rather than prioritisation or recommendations ) that can be adopted by different actors at different times Even in case of a major change, e.g. elections 10
5 Linking to choices and values Issue Policies should be linked to normative objectives such as sustainability, quality of life etc. Stakeholders need to be convinced that the policy results of a choice Approach Linking explicitly the exploration of the future with debates about choices and values (not only possible futures but also desirable futures) 11
Thank you for your attention 1 2
Foresight for policy making Issues for roundtable discussion 1. Embedding Foresight in policy process 2. Adequate involvement of policy makers 3. Joining policy implementation 4. Building a reservoir of knowledge 5. Linking to choices and values Are these approaches valid/useful? How should they be realised? What are missing issues? 13