Labour supply/demand dynamics of Canada s ICT sector and beyond David Ticoll dticoll@gmail.com @dticoll
Quality technical grads, but shortages Insufficient business skills & seasoning
ICT skills context (Statscan) 811,000 ICT professionals 56% outside ICT sector 24% women 36% immigrants 48% in Ontario, 25% in Quebec Unemployment typically 2.5-3.5%
Nordicity 2012-13 for Industry Canada Focus: R&D intensive part of ICT sector Mainly (a) manufacturers & (b) associations, incubators, etc. Mandate: Assess unmet demand and recruiting challenges for talent and skills Recommend approaches for addressing these challenges 6 technical occupations Electrical/electronics, computer & software engineers (3) Computer systems analysts Database administrators & developers Computer programmers & media developers Lit review, interviews (30+), online survey (110 completions), roundtable
Nordicity findings: demand pressures Challenges Specialized skills needs change frequently. Emerging technologies create new needs across broad range of ICT products and services. Potential Causes Absence of frequent, granular labour market information. Limited NOC codes. Communication, project management, business and entrepreneurial, and real world skill gaps are universal PSI ICT programs focus on technical education not soft skills Many ICT PSI students are first generation immigrants with limited English/French language skills, sometimes cultural differences
Nordicity findings: skills gaps Challenges Recruiting specialized, hybrid and/or line-of-business specific technical skillsets. Recruiting combined biz/tech skill sets for marketing, sales and management Potential Causes Lack of stakeholder awareness (students, career influencers, PSIs) about changing skillset profiles Canadian LOB clusters lack critical mass Recruiting experienced sales, marketing, entrepreneurial, product development mgt with global capabilities Recruiting senior technical professionals Insufficient venture capital equity with knowledge how to finance global roll-out Mid-stage firms often sell to foreign purchasers before developing these skills
Quality technical grads, but shortages Insufficient business skills & seasoning ICT manufacturing down, telecom & wholesaling flat Up: software, systems design/data processing
Where does innovation come from - R&D vsand GDP where 2013 does it go? (Industry Canada) R&D GDP Software/svcs 2.0B$ 27.4B$ Manufacturing 2.0 4.0 Comms Svcs 0.5 32.5 Wholesalers 0.5 5.6
ICTC s 2015 forecast reflects a business & software oriented labour market Net hiring requirements, all sectors, to 2019: 183,000 Key gaps: Leaders: IS analysts & consultants Computer & IS managers Innovators Software engineers Builders Programmers & IM developers Graphic designers & illustrators DB analysts Support professionals Computer/network operators & web technicians Data administrators
Net Canada s platform champions have fallen ICT manufacturing in decline Software activity in 4 areas: Standalone applications (Desire2Learn, Shopify) Platform apps (Ubisoft, Wave, G&M) Business application development/customization both in-house and client-oriented (CGI, IBM, Accenture) R&D centers of excellence (IBM, Microsoft, Google)
Quality technical grads, but shortages Insufficient business skills & seasoning ICT manufacturing down, telecom & wholesaling flat Up: software, systems design/data processing Context: Silicon Valley platform conglomerates
Platform-based digital conglomerates GAFA, Alibaba and aspirants Network effects, nonrivalry, incomplete excludability, digital speed monopoly Near zero transaction costs, media socialization free/precariat labour Silicon Valley advantages: intellectual & $$$ capital, people networks, fast innovation, culture, ideology Assets: big data, advanced algorithms, lock-in/addictiveness Constrains growth of Canadian ICT sector and the seasoning of its talent In practice, Canada s ICT sector is now mainly about: Content provision to the platform economy Niche applications Applications & customization for domestic and international business clients R&D by US firms
Quality technical grads, but shortages Insufficient business skills & seasoning ICT manufacturing down, telecom & wholesaling flat Up: software, systems design/data processing Context: Silicon Valley platform conglomerates New platforms aim to monopolize the physical
Future case: Autonomous Vehicles Multiple scenarios Full adoption case (2025-35?) Mobility as a service, integrated with mass transit Automation of commercial transportation & deliveries Benefits 90% reduction in vehicles on the roads 90%+ reduction in accidents Much less street & lot parking Lower energy costs & environmental impacts Time savings Lower costs, better management of human travel & goods distribution Travel time is productive/social/play time
Winners & losers Industries at risk or facing reinvention: car manufacturing, insurance, retail, distribution, transit Jobs at risk: commercial drivers (taxi, bus, delivery, truck), trauma healthcare Privacy Who will lead & reap the benefits? Digital conglomerates? Auto industry? Cities & communities? European & US cities, OECD, EU, various researchers tackling the policy, jobs & competitiveness issues Niche application positioning of Canada s ICT sector leaves us ill prepared for this next wave
Quality technical grads, but shortages Insufficient business skills & seasoning ICT manufacturing down, telecom & wholesaling flat Up: software, systems design/data processing Context: Silicon Valley platform conglomerates New platforms aim to monopolize the physical Policy agenda for digital platforms?
EU Commissioner for Digital Economy & Society Günther Oettinger @GOettingerEU