Sergey Ponomarev «OUR MAJOR GOAL IS TO PROMOTE PEACEFUL USES OF OUTER SPACE» Deputy Head of the Russian Federal Space Agency Sergey Ponomarev answers our questions. 1 SECURITY INDEX: In the last few years Russian space activities have been quite intense. What is the reason for that? Is it possible to evaluate some results of this work? PONOMAREV: The basis for such activities is formed thanks to improved funding and better provision of resources. We get as much financing for our programs as it is appropriated in the respective documents. Moreover, the approved three-year budget will ensure even more allocations. Our priorities in funding are the manned space flights, development of the global navigation system, and fundamental research in outer space. Specific results of this work can be characterized with the following parameters. Our country plays the leading role in the implementation of manned space flights and is the leader of the world market of spacecraft launches. In 2007 Russia made 38 percent of global launches (for instance, the United States accounted for only 29 percent). The growth in the number of launched spacecraft was 78 percent; as far as commercial projects are concerned 2.7 times. During 2007 we launched to the orbit 48 spacecraft, out of which 30 flights were commissioned by other countries. Even higher results are planned for 2008 (over 50 launches of multi-purpose spacecraft, excluding the military ones). At present, we see the strong trend towards further renewal of the Russian orbital group and enhancement of its capabilities. For instance, in 2007 for the first time in the last seven years the number of satellites in the group exceeded 100. The orbital group of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GLONASS) should comprise 16 spacecraft (12 of which are in operational use and were launched in 2005 2007). The domestic system of remote sensing of the Earth has been operational since 2006. It is based on the Resurs-DK spacecraft (with the 1 3 m resolution), which can effectively be used for defense purposes. We have fewer accidents during the carrier rocket launches. In 2005 three launches failed, in 2007 only one; in the first semester of 2008 there was only one case of disrupted work of the Briz-M booster. Our international cooperation in the area of outer space is being actively developed. For instance, in 2007 we signed additionally 13 interagency and two intergovernmental agreements. The number of joint projects in the sphere of design has substantially increased. There is uninterrupted and growing funding originating from international projects up to 7 billion rubles (i.e. 9 percent increase in 2007). Another important factor is the advancement of the production facilities and technologies within the missile and space industry. For instance, the production growth reached 15 percent I N T E R V I E W S SECURITY INDEX No. 1 (86), Volume 15 27
and was twice as higher as in the rest of national industries. The number of bankrupts and unprofitable enterprises has been reduced to a few. Thus, we have nearly overcome the systemic crisis typical of the space industry in the 1990s. The facilities develop new capabilities that will enable them to accomplish the principally new missions in the area of outer space exploration. SECURITY INDEX: Could you dwell on the international cooperation projects and comment on the construction of the space launching site in French Guiana and the prospects of the Sea Launch? PONOMAREV: Today Russia has specific cooperation projects with the United States, the European Space Agency, and with such countries as France, Italy, Germany; among our partners are South Africa, South Korea, India, and China; inside the CIS we can speak about Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Ukraine, Belarus, Armenia. I.e. the range of countries is broad. Of course, there are some priority projects. The construction of the space launching site in the space center in Guiana goes on smoothly and in accordance with the schedule. Russia supplies it with Soyuz-type vehicles and launch systems. There are no problems in implementation of this contract and the first lot of equipment has been sent by sea to French Guiana. This is one of the most exciting and large-scale projects, even though there are many others, like the ones with South Korea. Meanwhile, our key area of cooperation with the rest of the world is the use of the International Space Station (ISS). Sea Launch is strictly a commercial project. After the failure in 2007 related to the accident with the rocket on the platform, there are certain problems in its fulfillment. The Russian side in this project is represented by Energiya corporation. This initiative has a bright future and will be used a lot in three-four years. SECURITY INDEX: What are the priorities for the development of the Russian space industry? PONOMAREV: In April 2008 the Russian Security Council considered and approved the «Basic Principles of the Policy of the Russian Federation Related to the Space Activities until 2020 and beyond.» The document defines four key areas that we should focus on in the foreseeable future. These priorities are intertwined. The first mission is to build up the number and enhance the quality of the orbital groups of spacecraft and effective use of their capabilities for the sake of the country defense and security, research, socioeconomic sphere. Then we should ensure independent space activities of Russia in all areas. The third task is to provide for the fully-fledged implementation of international commitments undertaken by Russia in the area of outer space exploration, notably with respect to the ISS. There is one more priority which implies higher intensity and productivity of the studies related to planets and cosmic bodies of the solar system and beyond. The major goal is to expand our knowledge of the world and to seek the ways of using extraterrestrial resources. SECURITY INDEX: Do we have enough potential to develop the space industry? Will it be able to digest the amount of contracts expected in the near future? PONOMAREV: Our facilities have enough capabilities. And now it is not the matter of quantitative characteristics of the contracts, but the ability of the industry to develop appropriate technologies, ensure the quality of production and reliability of our products. SECURITY INDEX: What are the prospects of accomplishment of the aforementioned tasks? What is the role of the GLONASS system in this process? PONOMAREV: 2009 2010 should become an important landmark in the development of the Russian orbital group we plan a number of launches of important spacecraft. For instance, after seven-year break we would like to resume the fundamental space research (Koronas- Foton, Spektr-R, Fobos-Grunt spacecraft). 28 «OUR MAJOR GOAL IS TO PROMOTE PEACEFUL USES OF OUTER SPACE»
We also intend to enhance significantly the capabilities of the Russian space system for hydrometeorological support (Elektro-L and Meteor-M spacecraft). There will be expanded the number of spacecraft for remote sensing in 2010 we plan to launch Resurs-P, a new generation remote-sensing spacecraft. It is important for the sake of national defense to deploy and use the GLONASS system. The Federal Space Agency is in charge of it, but GLONASS is the dual-use system. At present, all necessary decisions related to GLONASS have been taken. The funding is provided, the programs of development and deployment are clear. We presume that by 2010 the major element of the system the orbital group will amount to 24 spacecraft. By 2011 the modernization of all ground control means should be completed. In the next two years we plan to increase twice the number of navigation items available to the end-users. The transportation infrastructure should be 100 percent supplied with such means of navigation. In fact, right now we manufacture about 30 different types of navigation equipment for the Defense Ministry. By 2012 the Armed Forces should receive nearly 60,000 navigation sets. Positive dynamics in the development of GLONASS, space communications, remote sensing is crucial for strengthening national security, ensuring rapid growth in scientific and economic potential of the state. SECURITY INDEX: If we take two spheres that are profitable GLONASS and orbit launches. An amateur would say that Russia has advanced much further in the latter than in the former. Under these circumstances, wouldn t it make sense to concentrate the resources in the area where our positions are stronger, i.e. to invest more in orbit launches, rather than to develop the sphere where the competition is already high? PONOMAREV: Today Russia accounts for seven-eight percent of the global market of space services, if we speak about financial indicators. The lion s share of it comes from delivery of services related to space launches. In the recent years Russia has made nearly half of all launches in the world as far as commercial projects are concerned. But we cannot expect dynamic growth in this sector, so we have to expand our capabilities and the range of services. Therefore, GLONASS, remote sensing, telecommunications and broadcasting, research are the promising areas. Nowadays our primary goal is to create the conditions that would make these services attractive and competitive. SECURITY INDEX: Has the target audience of GLONASS been identified? Do we plan to reach the level of a car, a taxi driver, a fisherman, or will it mostly be the niche use for the defense, security and transportation purposes? PONOMAREV: GLONASS is not a duty system and it is not created for this or that purpose. It is a comprehensive mechanism that will be introduced in all spheres, in economy, in defense and in different communities, if we deem it necessary. These are not military devices, these are navigators for private cars, for garbage collectors, for anyone. We should simply ensure that the system helps people to move, to drive, to solve various other tasks up to the control of bridges. So we realize that GLONASS will be widely used in different areas. SECURITY INDEX: Is there a special unit, company, or department within the Federal Space Agency dealing with the GLONASS marketing? Why should people turn to GLONASS instead of GPS? PONOMAREV: At present, a number of federal agencies divide the responsibilities with respect to GLONASS. The Ministry of Industry and Trade will be in charge of development and production of navigation products for car users. The Federal Space Agency is responsible for coordination of all works related to GLONASS. So we are setting up a specialized department within the agency, which will deal with marketing of GLONASS and its elements. To promote GLONASS, we work actively with the regions. Several enterprises of missile and space industry advertize and distribute the products to end-users. Thus, we hope that the amount of activ- I N T E R V I E W S SECURITY INDEX No. 1 (86), Volume 15 29
ities to be undertaken will put GLONASS in a more advantageous position with respect to GPS both on the domestic and foreign markets. SECURITY INDEX: Which role in the Russian space activities will be played by the program of manned space flights? PONOMAREV: The program of manned space flights together with the further use of the ISS remains one of the priorities. The tasks are quite obvious here. First of all, it is the buildup and expansion of functions of the Russian segment of the ISS. In the next few years the Russian part will get additional six-seven elements for enhancing the research base and increasing the energy sustainability of the station. Secondly, we seek extra opportunities to extend the service life of the ISS until 2020. The goal is to make a maximum use of its resources and create the conditions for preparation of another stage in manned space flights on the low-earth orbit and beyond. Thirdly, we develop the future manned and cargo spacecraft as a technological basis for new projects in this area. They should be ready by 2018. Another mission is to expand the program of research and experiments on the ISS, to make them more practical and applicable for specific economic activities. Starting from 2009 there will be more people on the ISS to carry out this program. No less than six people will be stationed there permanently, three of whom will belong to the Russian crew. Under these circumstances, in 2009 we will have to suspend the program of tourist visits to the station. SECURITY INDEX: If we look at the development of space industry in Russia from the point of national security, what are the major issues that emerge and how can these problems be overcome? PONOMAREV: One of the priorities in the development of the Russian space activities is to ensure its independence and guarantee our access to the outer space. This priority is connected with the national security objectives. And here we have to perform the following tasks. First of all, we should construct within the Russian territory the appropriate infrastructure sufficient to accomplish all the tasks in the area of outer space exploration. Secondly, we must develop enough delivery systems that would be able to launch any types of spacecraft. As far as the first objective is concerned, we plan to build a new launching site in the Far East (Amurskaya oblast) for scientific and socioeconomic purposes, above all, to fulfill the program of manned space flights. The site will be the place for stationing new generation missile systems capable of delivering to the orbit all types of loads, including those of large-scale space projects of the future. In fact, this intention to station and launch new delivery systems accounts for our willingness to build a new site. It has nothing to do with our alleged desire to get rid of the problems related to the use of the Baikonur site in Kazakhstan. The latter has a unique position and capacity. SECURITY INDEX: Will there be found alternatives to Baikonur? PONOMAREV: In the long run, no. As a matter of fact, this site has good perspective, e.g. from the point of implementation of the Russian-Kazakh joint project Baiterek. SECURITY INDEX: Speaking in detail about the national security and space, what effect has the development of space industry on economic security of Russia? PONOMAREV: At present, our leadership pays much attention to the use of space activities in conformity with the economic security interests of the nation. This task has the following aspects: enhancement of our competitiveness and promotion of the Russian spacecraft and technologies; advanced technological potential of the missile and space industry which should be independent from foreign countries as far as critical technologies are concerned; broad use of spacecraft for socioeconomic development of the country control of transport, monitoring of natural factors, prevention of disasters and emergencies, etc. Economic security, as one of the key elements of national security, depends on the effectiveness of use of our spacecraft. A number of federal agencies, regional administrations have 30 «OUR MAJOR GOAL IS TO PROMOTE PEACEFUL USES OF OUTER SPACE»
launched a series of projects to ensure maximum use of the space capabilities for economic and innovative development. SECURITY INDEX: Hence, it seems that at home the priorities and programs are clear. Meanwhile, there is an external factor a number of states have intensified their work to develop anti-satellite warfare systems. PONOMAREV: Such activities take place in China and in the United States. The fact that Washington used the sea-launched antimissile to hit the low-orbit spacecraft on February 21, 2008 proves that the United States is willing to incorporate the anti-space elements in the missile defense system to be deployed to protect the American territory. One cannot rule out the deployment of space-based weapons. Under these circumstances, Russia faces the problem of maintaining security of its orbital group the latter is not excessive, so we cannot afford to lose any of the satellites even in the long run. The most acceptable scenario for us and for other nations is to promote the treaty preventing the deployment of weapons in outer space. In our opinion, the Russian proposals in this area are well-grounded and are aimed at attaining the most significant result outer space must not become the arena for military confrontation and this should be guaranteed by the international community. SECURITY INDEX: Whatever we dream of, but the arms race in outer space takes place. What should Russia undertake in response to the de facto ongoing arms race in space? PONOMAREV: In February 2008 the United States made an attempt to hit the low-orbit satellite with the Standard antimissile. There are other examples of such activities in the area of antisatellite warfare. Since our orbital group is compact, we have to do our best to protect it from jamming, interruptions and other attacks. Our first step is to promote the aforementioned treaty, which is beneficial for Russia. These are politico-diplomatic measures that are taken. If at this stage we fail, we may have to move to the military-technical sphere and develop specific defense systems, or means for counterattack. But as I have said, the priority today is the first mission diplomatic promotion of the treaty. SECURITY INDEX: Would not it be better to continue to develop the means of space defense and space warfare in parallel to the negotiations? PONOMAREV: During the Soviet times we have already developed a powerful scientific and technical basis in the area of space warfare and space defense. We have not lost this shield. Obviously, there are grave concerns. But we have to bear in mind that there are two types of means in this sphere defense and offense. As far as defense is concerned, we have never stopped this work. Today all launched spacecraft have significant defense resources that protect them from any attacks. I realize that the work should be intensified, but it depends on funding which is allocated in this case to the Defense Ministry, not the Federal Space Agency. SECURITY INDEX: One more question about Resurs-DK spacecraft, which also makes photos of the Earth surface. There are vehicles with an open link. Our spacecraft works in the interests of the Russian Federation. I.e. any person in the world cannot easily order or purchase the photos with the one-meter resolution of this or that part of our planet. Does Russia intend to enter this market of services? If yes, when will it happen and which types of services do we plan to provide? PONOMAREV: The problem may be related to the lack of adequate information dissemination systems on the Earth, i.e. the systems that connect the satellite, the consumer and the transfer of the photos in this or that format. Obviously, about 30 percent of its time the spacecraft works for the MOD. But it is important to ensure that it is useful also for foreign clients. We will use normal international principles with respect to Resurs-DK and other remote-sensing vehicles, so that the full use of the system may be ensured. SECURITY INDEX: If Russia enters this market, will there be any restrictions concerning the photos? There is an example of the U.S.-Israeli agreement, which prohibits the U.S. companies to sell openly the photos of the Israeli territory with the resolution less than two meters. I N T E R V I E W S SECURITY INDEX No. 1 (86), Volume 15 31
PONOMAREV: As far as I know, Russia has no plans to impose any legal restrictions on the work of Resurs-DK or the use of its information abroad. Moreover, in our attempts to promote the spacecraft, we conduct negotiations with the United Arab Emirates, Brazil, India, and some other states, including the CIS countries. So within the framework of acceptable resolutions and types of photos we do not make any artificial constraints. SECURITY INDEX: It is known that Russia faces a serious shortage of skilled labor, e.g. in the area of nuclear energy development. There is a generation gap, experts leave the industries and nobody can transfer the experience and obtain the experience. What is the situation in the space industry? Are there any measures to improve it? PONOMAREV: The problem of aging human resources exists in our industry. At the same time, there is a stable trend of inflow of young specialists, even though their amount could be bigger. It is important that the brain drain is going down. There are different ways to keep people at work additional grants, subsidies and other forms of support to engineers, scientists, other employees. I hope that we have passed the critical phase, as far as young specialists are concerned. There is a problem here, but it is not that acute and the ways to resolve it are clear to the national leadership. Note 1 The interview is based on the public lecture by Sergey Ponomarev delivered at the meeting of the Trialogue Club International held by the PIR Center on July 16, 2008. 32