Modes of Foresight in informing public policy and decision-making

Modes of Foresight in informing public policy and decision-making Peter H. Jones @redesign SFI, OCAD University, Toronto Karl Schroeder @karlschroeder Futurist, advisor, author, Toronto Ursula Gobel @ulacan1 AVP Future Challenges, SSHRC, Ottawa Greg Van Alstyne @gregvan slab, OCAD University, Toronto 1

Anticipatory Design in Policy Formation Action planning, scenarios inform optionality or map emerging ideologies. Four modes in policy: Foresight-led analysis Collaborative foresight engagement Expert-led policy proposals Social foresight Jones, P.H. (2017). The futures of Canadian governance: Foresight competencies for public administration in the digital era. Canadian Public Administration. (in press). Figure modified from Popper, R. (2008). How are foresight methods selected? Foresight 10 (6): 62 89. Peter H Jones slab.ocadu.ca

Digital Era Governance: The coming clash Van Alstyne, Jones, Candy between digital citizens & Westminster Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne slab.ocadu.ca

Imagining Canada s Future: Futures of Urbanization Jones, Stein, Van Alstyne Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Peter Van H Alstyne Jones slab.ocadu.ca

Imagining Canada s Future: Futures of Urbanization Jones, Stein, Van Alstyne Level V Most influencing Level IV Significantly Influencing Level III Influenced Level II Highly Influenced Challenge 1 Advancing a diverse and inclusive society Challenge 6 Including indigenous rights in planning Challenge 9 Stewarding regional ecosystems In the face of increasing urbanization worldwide, what future challenges do Challenge 2 Enabling equitable access to ICT Challenge 5 Overcoming fear of change Challenge 7 Transitioning to a digital economy we anticipate for Southern Ontario, through 2030? Method: Structured Dialogic Design Challenge 3 Governing ourselves responsively Challenge 4 Designing sustainable cities Challenge 8 Upgrading transportation systems Challenge 10 Supporting our aging population (SDD) Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Peter Van H Alstyne Jones slab.ocadu.ca

Future of Human Teaming with Autonomous Systems US Air Force Research Lab Peter H Jones slab.ocadu.ca

Vision and method for policy futures & futures in policy making Karl Schroeder Futurist, advisor, author, Toronto 7 Karl Schroeder

8 Karl Schroeder

ADVANCING KNOWLEDGE FOR CANADA S FUTURE ENABLING EXCELLENCE, BUILDING PARTNERSHIPS, CONNECTING RESEARCH TO CANADIANS Ursula Gobel Anticipation Conference, UK November 2017

Our role Federal agency mandated to promote and support postsecondary-based research and training in the social sciences and humanities Through grants, fellowships and scholarships SSHRC: Trains the next generation of talented, creative thinkers and doers Builds knowledge and understanding about people, cultures and societies Drives the innovations that address the challenges of today and tomorrow Ursula Gobel

*$380.2 million for grants, fellowships and scholarships $0.94 out of every allocated dollar goes directly to fund researchers and students Fast Facts Over 13,000 funding applications received More than 4,300 new grants, fellowships and scholarships awarded 4,300 volunteer external assessors and experts support the review of funding applications. Ursula Gobel

SSHRC S COMMUNITY Canada s Social Sciences and Humanities Research Community 1,630 Postdoctoral Fellows in Canada 21,000 Doctoral students in SSH 48,000 Masters students in SSH 24,000 full-time SSH faculty teachers SSHRC Support (as of 2016-2017) 9,600 Awards 18,600 Researchers Supported 3,400 International Researchers 8,400 Students Supported 4,700 Directly (scholarships) 3,700 Indirectly (grants) 3,200 Partners 330 Industry Partners Ursula Gobel

OUR STRATEGIC PRIORITIES: ADVANCING KNOWLEDGE FOR CANADA S FUTURE 1 Enable excellence in a changing research landscape 2 Create opportunities for research and training through collaborative initiatives 3 Connect social sciences and humanities research with Canadians Ursula Gobel

BUILDING FUTURES LITERACY 2016-2020 SSHRC Strategic Priorities Imagining Canada s Future Objectives Enable excellence in a changing research landscape Build research preparedness and gain critical insights into future challenge areas Create opportunities for research and training through collaborative initiative Expand cross-sector collaboration and partnerships while leveraging additional funding for research and training Connect social sciences and humanities research with Canadians Mobilize knowledge to inform decision-making across the public, private and not-for-profit sectors Ursula Gobel

FOCUS ON SIX FUTURE CHALLENGE AREAS New Ways of Learning Quest for Energy & Natural Resources Emerging Technologies A Successful Shared Future with Indigenous Peoples Interconnected and Evolving Global Landscape Global Peak Population 16 Ursula Gobel

2014-2017 ICF Implementation Plan Stakeholder Engagement - Knowledge Synthesis & Mobilization - Partnerships & Collaborations 5 Knowledge Synthesis Grants competitions Multi-sector advisory groups provided input to shape calls for proposals 123 KSG grants awarded (up to $25K) $3M invested Ursula Gobel

EXTENSIVE MULTI-SECTOR ENGAGEMENT 5 workshops and 4 forums organized Over 1,250 participants: researchers, students, policy officials, community and business sector representatives Extensive participation and support from public policy sector Ursula Gobel

Knowledge Mobilization - Op-eds by KSG holders published - SSHRC Summary Reports on key findings published - International collaboration with Embassies - New relationships built between researchers and non-academic partners - Scaling up to new research projects and applications in SSHRC s funding programs Ursula Gobel

Extensive Stakeholder Engagement and Collaboration Ursula Gobel

ICF 2018-2021 Framework Foresight on Societal Futures Research on Emerging Issues Futures in Research & Training Societal Trends/Themes Research in the Public Interest Emerging scholarly Issues/themes Leadership, Responsiveness, Flexibility, Agility Ursula Gobel

ICF 2018-2021 Implementation Scanning Engaging Implementing July December 2018 January June 2018 Conduct foresight activities: Complete Horizon Scan Validate Horizon Scan findings ICF Fall Forum 2018 Identify Future Challenges Ongoing: Research on Emerging Issues ; Futures in research and scholarship Convene stakeholders and partners across academic, public, business & not-for-profit sectors Integrate SSHRC environmental scanning and KSG findings IFC 2014-2017 Ongoing: Research on Emerging Issues ; Futures in research and scholarship January 2019 March 2021 Assess and develop action plan to address future challenges - Maintain active stakeholder engagement Ongoing: Research on Emerging Issues ; Futures in research and scholarship Ursula Gobel

@SSHRC_CRSH FACEBOOK YOUTUBE THANK YOU! URSULA GOBEL, ASSOCIATE VICE-PRESIDENT, FUTURE CHALLENGES URSULA.GOBEL@SSHRC-CRSH.GC.CA @ULACAN1

Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? How can foresight inform & inspire critical public policy options? Greg Van Alstyne Associate Professor, Faculty of Design Director, slab OCAD University, Toronto Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne slab.ocadu.ca

Strategic Innovation Lab (slab) is a centre of excellence at OCAD University We bring positive impact through foresight, design thinking, social innovation FOUNDED HERE 2008 Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne slab.ocadu.ca

slab Groups Flourishing Systems Strongly Sustainable Business Models Systemic Design Research Network SystemCity Wellness Communication Envision Health Media Futures DEMO Researchers include Profs. Bowes, Candy, Davies, Harfoush, Hunt, Jones, Kerr, Logan, Richards, Sellen, Stein, Van Alstyne Policy SFI + slab Foresight: Overview What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne slab OCAD University Greg Van Alstyne slab.ocadu.ca

Why does policy need foresight? Research foresight is...the only plausible response to resolving conflicts over priority-setting... Foresight provides a systematic mechanism for coping with that complexity & interdependence as it affects long-term decisions on research, in particular facilitating policy-making where integration of activities across several fields is vital Martin & Irvine (1989, 3) Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? photo: flickr.com/photos/emio_me/431872537/ Greg Van Alstyne slab.ocadu.ca

Principles & Projects Co-Creation Participation Strangemaking Economic Futures for Ontario 2032 DesignJam Futures of Democracy Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne slab.ocadu.ca

Co-Creation creativity of designers and people not trained in design, working together in the design development process Sanders & Stappers (2008), Co-creation and the New Landscapes of Design Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne slab.ocadu.ca

Economic Futures for Ontario 2032 Van Alstyne, Richards, Kerr, Harfoush, Stein, Schroeder, Chandler slab & Ontario Public Service (OPS) co-facilitated & co-authored the study xxx Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne slab.ocadu.ca

Economic Futures for Ontario 2032 Critical Uncertainties Climate change Will predictability, pace, and human management of climate change be: Emerging and interconnected economies Will jurisdictional trade relations and economic power balance be: Game-changing technologies Will diffusion, control and accessibility of key technologies be: Progressive Changing at a manageable pace Friendly Characterized by collaborative competition Ubiquitous More widespread, accessible, or open Volatile Rapid, unpredictable, challenging change Unfriendly Characterized by selective/ exclusive trade relations Concentrated More constrained, controlled, or closed

Economic Futures for Ontario 2032: Scenarios isurvivor Dark & Stormy Night Northern Stars Ontario Galactica Illustration: (cc) Ryan Lake

Why co-creation? When participants bring something unique into being, they do so with attention, passion, care and creativity less administration and management, more parenting " Van Alstyne, 2013, Co-creating Foresight in Government (cc) http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/file:baby_on_back.jpg Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne slab.ocadu.ca

Participation Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne slab.ocadu.ca

Design G. Van Alstyne S. Davies P. Robinson Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne slab.ocadu.ca

Why participation? ordinary citizens are neither allowed to participate in defining the goals of a society, nor are their visions of desirable societies taken seriously by the ruling elite, except as part of electoral calculations. Futures studies seek to subvert such status quo [&] keep options open Nandy, 1996, Bearing Witness to the Future Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne slab.ocadu.ca

Strangemaking Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne slab.ocadu.ca

Futures of [Open] Democracy Profs. Candy & Van Alstyne Time Machine : C. Connolly, L. Dempsey, R. Memmel, A. Satterthwaite, J. Sharrock Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne slab.ocadu.ca

Why strangemaking? Is there a danger of bringing too much imagination to these problems? Do we risk losing ourselves in a maze of bizarre improbabilities? It has usually been the lack of imagination, rather than the excess of it, that has caused unfortunate decisions and missed opportunities. Kahn, Paradigm for the 1965 1975 Strategic Debate, 3 Policy Foresight: What Works & Why? Greg Van Alstyne slab.ocadu.ca