BOLD: Exponential Growth and the Democratization of the World Excerpts crafted from NY Times bestseller Bold-How to go big, create wealth and impact the world, written by Steven Kotler and Dr. Peter Diamandis for the express use of Bold Capital Partners.
A Time Like Never Before We live in a world that is constantly evolving. The next 20 years are going to produce more changes around the world than the last 200 years combined. Prepare for a radical transformation of the landscape of business and technology, as the old is cleared away to make way for the new. At this moment, a number of key exponential technologies are undergoing exponential development, and the convergence of these technologies is creating a dramatic shift in the way our world will operate in the future. Exponential technology is any technology accelerating on an exponential growth curve that is, doubling in power on a regular basis. Today, this kind of change is everywhere we look, showing up in dozens of arenas: computing power and storage, artificial intelligence, robotics, networks, sensors, medicine, and much more. It is transforming companies and disrupting industries. This change is happening at such a rapid pace, that a study from the John M. Olin School of Business at Washington University estimates that 40% of today's Fortune 500 companies on the S&P 500 will no longer exist in 10 years. Dr. Peter Diamandis has made the exploration and study of the impact of these technology his life s focus. As one of Fortune s Top 50 Global Leaders, Dr. Diamandis is the co-founder of companies such as The XPRIZE Foundation, Human Longevity Inc., Planetary Resources and Singularity University. He started a network that has produced extraordinary change. Seeing even greater possibilities for transformation through disruptive technologies, Dr. Diamandis outlined the blueprint for this change in his two New York Times best-selling books, Abundance and Bold. In those books he tells the story of a new breed of entrepreneurs who have found a way to wield the power of these technologies and build companies to try and solve the world s biggest problems. What follows are a few modified selections from BOLD that illustrate the nature of the change that is transforming our world. Exponential Growth: What is it? Exponential growth is actually pretty easy to understand. Instead of linear growth, which is a +1 progression wherein 1 becomes 2 becomes 3, exponential growth is a compound doubling: 1 becomes 2 becomes 4 becomes 8 becomes 16 and so on. Mathematically, it s easy to understand how we can go from 1 to 512 in 10 steps. But when applied in real life, exponential growth is mind-boggling. What does this mean for companies and industries? Singularity University co-founder, Ray Kurzweil, says: "We won t experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century it will be more like 20,000 years of progress (at today s rate). Just think about how much things have changed in the past 10 years wireless internet, smart phones, Facebook and Twitter and then try to imagine how vastly different things will be in 2020, or even 2050. The Six D s: Exponential Framework The Six D s are your road map of rapid development. Created by Dr. Diamandis, the Six D s act as a framework for understanding the effects of exponential technologies on global industries. They
are a series of steps that lead to enormous upheaval and opportunity. In order to properly invest money, time and resources in this exponential period of transformation, one has to understand these Six D s. Digitalization Once a product transitions from physical to digital, it s too late to turn back. With one simple step this technology embarks on the exponential growth curve and there s no stopping it. When it becomes digitized, it becomes exponentially empowered and all you can do is step back and watch as it spreads at the speed of light. Deception Before this digitized technology takes flight, however, there s a period of deceptive growth. At this time, the exponential growth goes mostly unnoticed. The results are so miniscule that they seem insignificant. Big change is on the horizon, however, as exponential growth starts becoming more and more visibly disruptive. Disruption Disruptive technology is any innovation that creates a new market and disrupts an existing one. At first, the new technology seems small. But it s on its way to redefining the industry. For start-ups and large companies, when this change happens either you disrupt yourselves or be disrupted by someone else. Demonetization This means the removal of money from the equation. In today s economy, some of the most successful companies achieved their success by giving away things for free. Skype demonetized long-distance telephony; Craigslist demonetized classified advertising; Napster demonetized the music industry, and on and on. When a technology reaches this stage, it s on the upswing of a crazy amount of growth. Dematerialization This describes the vanishing of the goods and services themselves. The oncedisruptive technology is absorbed into new technologies or evolves so much that the product itself disappears. For example, digital photography has evolved from cameras to becoming a standard part of every smartphone. Dematerialization is frightening for many, but ripe with possibilities for a small few. Democratization This chain of vanishing returns has to end somewhere, and that s when democratization happens. Democratization occurs when those hard costs drop so low they become available and affordable to everyone. When physical objects are turned into bits and hosted on a digital platform in such high volume, their price approaches zero and the technology becomes available to everyone. Today, the final three D s in the chain reaction have dissembled companies and disrupted industries almost overnight. While many companies believe this spells their certain death, for those familiar with this chain of events and bold enough to take action, it is a wealth of disruptive opportunity. Disrupting Linear Businesses and Industries Today, exponential organizations are disrupting linear organizations at a lightning rate. Linearthinking executives are being bypassed by exponential entrepreneurs, and massive established
companies are being replaced by start ups. Top performing executives know that the kids in the garage are outstripping them faster than ever, and there s nothing they can do about it. But it s not just linear businesses and executives that are being put out of the job. Exponential technology is also disrupting linear industries, dismantling the entire landscape and disrupting traditional processes. Companies that can take advantage of this rapidly-expanding scale of exponential impact are earning billions of dollars in record time. In the past, scaling up a business required massive investments and time, not to mention space, workforce, and product suites. Only governments or multi-national organizations had the resources to conduct global business. Today s start-ups are very different. They are smaller organizations focused on information technologies, dematerializing physical products and creating new revenue streams in months, sometimes weeks. They are small and nimble, understand and capitalize on the Six D s, and most importantly, have a strong understanding of the technologies and tools driving change. These are the businesses that are thriving. Gone are the legacy companies with their hierarchies and decades of history. New businesses are born every day that change the way things are being done. The only way to stay ahead is to be flexible and open to change when it comes banging on your door. Exponential Technology But how? Those thriving exponential businesses and entrepreneurs all share one common trait: vision. They have the ability to look forward and the confidence to make large changes based on their vision of the future. Today, many of these great leaders follow something known as the Gartner Hype Cycle. After a novel technology is introduced and begins gaining momentum, it reaches a peak of inflated expectations, a period of hype during which all the possibilities for the new technology are imagined at once. However, when these technologies fail to live up to the initial gap (the time between Deception and Disruption) public sentiment for the technology falls into the trough of disillusionment. Once in this trough, it s easy to dismiss the technologies, and fail to believe they ll ever emerge, thus missing their massively transformative potential. The Six D s calls this the Deceptive Phase. The successful entrepreneurs are those who can skate to where the puck is going by recognizing when a technology is exiting the trough of disillusionment and beginning to rise up the slope of enlightenment. In other words, going from Deceptive to Disruptive. There are a number of indicators, but the most important telltale factor is the development of a simple and elegant user interface. This user interface plucks the technology from the hands of the technologists and deposits it with the entrepreneurs. At this point, entrepreneurs can harness this new tool to solve problems, experiment, start multi-billion dollar businesses and disrupt trillion-dollar industries.
Democratization of the World We are hurling towards a world of unimaginable opportunity. Artificial intelligence, robotics, personalized medicine, ubiquitous connectivity, alternative energy, nanotechnology and all the possibilities they open up, will soon be available on a global scale. These technologies will start solving our world s greatest challenges: food, education, water, security, global health, energy, environment, communication and poverty. And it will happen much sooner than we imagine. Welcome to a brave new world of disruption.