Introduction The 2020 Census will produce statistics that are used by governments, non-profit organizations and the private sector and the results of the 2020 Census will have implications for a decade. While the Census Bureau tries very hard to count everyone in the country, some people have always been missed in the Census. More importantly, some groups of people are more likely than others to be missed in the Census. This report provides an overview of the changing demographics of California in relation to census accuracy. Many of the fastest growing groups in California are groups that have been missed at high rates by the Census Bureau in the past. The report also zeros in on the nine counties in California with more than one million people. The majority of Californians live in one of these nine counties. Moreover, given the underfunding of the 2020 Census, the risk of undercounts may be higher in 2020 than in the past. Uses of Census Data To understand the importance of census undercounts it is important to understand how census data are used. In addition to our scientific and scholarly interest in obtaining correct decennial census counts, there are many practical and policy-related reasons why it is important to assess census coverage. Census coverage errors are important because they are both a data problem and in many cases a social equity issue. According to the U.S. Census Bureau data from the Decennial Census are used for many important applications including: Allocating political power Distribution federal funds through funding formulas Civil rights enforcement Business applications Post-Census population estimates and projections Providing weights for sample surveys Denominators for rates Community planning Economic and social science research A number of these points are discussed in more detail below. 2 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
The demographic figures from the Census are used to distribute political power both in terms of assigning seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and for constructing political districts based on the judicially mandated one-person/one-vote rule (Grofman 1982; Baulmle and Poston 2003). Buamle and Poston (2003) found that a difference of a couple hundred people would have moved a congressional seat from one state to another following the 2000 Census. Any geographic area that is undercounted is not likely to get its fair share of political power (Anderson and Fienberg 2001). Analysis of the most recent population estimates from the Census Bureau suggest that California will get the last congressional seat assigned (435) in reapportionment after the 2020 Census (Brace 2016). Therefore a complete and accurate 2020 census in California is very important Decennial Census data are also used in many federal funding formulas that distribute funds to states and localities each year (U.S. Senate 1992; Reamer 2010 & 2017; Blumerman and Vidal, 2009). Recent research indicates Census-derived data were used to distribute about $600 billion in FY2015 to states and localities (Reamer 2017). Table 1 shows California received more than $76 billion in FY 2015 from the largest federal funding formulas based on Censusderived data. This amounts to more than $700 billion over the ten-year census cycle. Table 1 shows how much money is distributed nationwide and in California based on the 16 largest federal programs that use Census-derived data to distribute funds. Places that experience a net undercount do not receive their fair share of such public resources. TABLE 1. DISTRIBUTION IN FISCAL YEAR 2015 OF LARGEST FEDERAL ASSISTANCE PROGRAMS THAT DISTRIBUTE FUNDS ON THE BASIS OF DECENNIAL CENSUS-DERIVED DATA: U.S. AND CALIFORNIA Dollars in Billions Program Name U.S. Total California Medical Assistance Program (Medicaid) $312.0 $44.2 Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) $69.5 $7.5 Medicare Part B (Supplemental Medical Insurance) Physicians Fee Schedule Services $64.2 $6.5 Section 8 Housing Choice Vouchers $38.3 $3.5 Highway Planning and Construction $19.1 $3.2 State Children's Health Insurance Program (S-CHIP) $13.9 $1.7 Title I Grants to Local Education Agencies $11.6 $1.7 National School Lunch Program $11.2 $1.4 Foster Care (Title IV-E) $11.1 $1.3 3 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
Dollars in Billions Program Name U.S. Total California Special Education Grants (IDEA) $9.2 $1.2 Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) $8.3 $1.2 Head Start/Early Head Start $6.3 $1.1 Section 8 Housing Assistance Payments Program (Project-based) $4.6 $1.0 Health Center Programs (Community, Migrant, Homeless, Public Housing) $4.2 $0.6 Child Care and Development Fund- Entitlement $3.4 $0.3 Low Income Home Energy Assistance (LIHEAP) $2.9 $0.2 Total $589.7 $76.7 Souce: Andrew Reamer, Counting for Dollars available online at https://gwipp.gwu.edu/counting-dollars-role-decennial-census-geographic-distribution-federalfunds For many groups, the Census is seen as a civil rights issue (The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights 2017). In addition to heavy use of decennial census data in the context of redistricting and voting rights, data from the Census are used to examine equality in jobs and education opportunities for example. A flawed census can undermine the ability to examine such issues fairly. According to the leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights (2017, page 1), Federal agencies rely on census and American Community Service (ACS) data to monitor discrimination and implement civil rights laws that protect voting rights, equal employment opportunity, and more. One more piece of background information is important. As we move toward the 2020 Census, the Census Bureau has been underfunded and this has hampered plans to get ready for 2020. Figure 1 shows changes in the Census Bureau s budget for the past three Censuses as well as the 2020 budget situation. Typically, there has been a big increase in the Census Bureau s budget as it moves from year 7 to year 8 in the census cycle. However, in the 2020 cycle there has been no increase in the Census Bureau s budget between year 7 and 8. (More detailed information on the Census Bureau budget is available on the Census Projects Blog at https://thecensusproject.org/2017/09/). This suggests that the Census Bureau will have less money than it has had in the past to try and reach Hard-to-Count communities. Consequently, it is more important than ever that organizations outside the Census Bureau do more to ensure a complete and accurate count. 4 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
FIGURE 1. PERCENT CHANGE IN THE CENSUS BUREAU'S BUDGET FROM YEAR 7 TO YEAR 8 OF CENSUS CYCLE 101 65 61 1990 Census 2000 Census 2010 Census 2020 Census 0 In Census 2000 and Census 2010, California was a leader in putting state resources into the effort to make sure there was a complete Census count. California has already allocated money to promote census awareness and participation in the 2020 Census. The Changing Demographics of California Table 2 shows the racial composition of the U.S. and California populations based on July 1, 2016, estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau. Since respondents are now allowed to select more than one race, the race groups shown here include anyone who selected that race even if they also selected another race. The Census Bureau refers to this way of grouping people as race alone or in combination. In the remainder of this publication, when I refer to a race in the text it is implied that this is race alone or in combination. This provides more inclusive estimates of groups and is the method recommended by OMB for data used in civil rights context (U.S. Office of Management and Budget 2001). This also means some people are counted in more than one group in Table 2, so percentages add to more than 100 percent. The way data are currently collected by the Census Bureau, respondents are first asked if they are Hispanic or Not, then asked which of five race groups they belong to. Everyone who marks Hispanics is also asked to select one or more races. In Table 2, the Hispanics are removed from the race groups and shown separately. This means the race population figures shown here are not as inclusive as they would be if Hispanics were also included in the group. Table 2 indicates that Non-Hispanic Whites and Hispanics are the two largest groups in California. Both groups represent about 40 percent of the California population in 2016. The next largest group is Non-Hispanic Asians and they comprise about one-sixth of the California population. Non-Hispanic Blacks account for 6.5 percent of the population. Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiian and Pacific islanders are one percent of the population and Non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaskan Natives are slightly less than one percent of the population. 5 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
TABLE 2. CALIFORNIA AND U.S. POPULATION BY RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN JULY 1, 2016 Non-Hispanic White Alone or in Combination Non-Hispanic Black Alone or in Combination Non-Hispanic Asian Alone or in Combination Non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaskan Native Alone or in Combination Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders Alone or in Combination Source; U.S. Census Bureau, July 1, 2016 Population Estimates downloaded from American Factfinder 9-17-2017 Table 3 shows how the size of these groups has changed in California since the 2010 Census. Overall the state population grew by almost two million people, or 5.4 percent, between 2010 and 2016, but there is a lot of variation among the groups. The only group to decline between 2010 and 2016 were Non-Hispanic Whites. The Non- Hispanic White population fell by almost 88,000 or about half a percent. All other groups grew between 2010 and 2016. When we look at the numerical increase (rather than percent increase) Hispanics showed the most growth at about 1.4 million. Non-Hispanic Asians grew by almost 860,000. Increases among other groups are much smaller. In percentage terms, Non-Hispanic Asians had the highest growth rate (16.1 percent) and Hispanic had the second highest (10.7 percent). Number (in 1000s) California Percent Number (in 1000s) U.S. Percent 15,728 40.1% 203,953 63.1% 2,541 6.5% 43,219 13.4% 6,202 15.8% 20,367 6.3% 392 1.0% 4,306 1.3% 260 0.7% 1,166 0.4% Hispanic 15,281 38.9% 57,470 17.8% Total 39,250 323,128 6 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
TABLE 3. CALIFORNIA POPULATION CHANGE FROM 2010 TO 2016 BY RACE AND HISPANIC ORIGIN Numbers (in 1000s) Change 2010 to 2016 2016 2010 Number (in 1000s) Percent Non-Hispanic White Alone or in Combination 15,728 15,816-88 -0.6% Non-Hispanic Black Alone or in Combination 2,541 2,452 89 3.6% Non-Hispanic Asian Alone or in Combination 6,202 5,342 860 16.1% Non-Hispanic American Indian/Alaskan Native Alone or in Combination 392 386 6 1.7% Non-Hispanic Native Hawaiians and Pacific Islanders Alone or in Combination 260 235 25 10.7% Hispanic 15,281 14,014 1,267 9.0% Total 39,250 37,254 1,996 5.4% Source: U.S. Census Bureau, post-census population estimates downloaded from American FactFinder 9-14-2017 These demographic figures are important relative to the Census because these demographic groups have very different net undercount rates in the Census. Table 4 shows the Census Bureau s net undercounts estimates in the 2010 Census by race and Hispanic Origin. In Table 4, figures with a negative sign indicate net undercounts and figures with a positive sign indicate net overcounts. California has a relative small percentage of Non-Hispanic Whites In California Non-Hispanic Whites make up about 40 percent of the population compared to 63 percent in the nation as a whole. Table 4 shows Non-Hispanic Whites had a net overcount in the 2010 Census. Overcounts are thought to reflect relatively privileged groups. Two groups with large overcounts are college students (counted at their parents home and their college dormitory) and people who have two or more homes. Moreover, Table 3 shows the Non-Hispanic White population is declining in California. In other words, the population group that is easiest to count is becoming a smaller part of California s overall population. Hispanics make up a larger percent of the California population compared to other states. In 2016, 40 percent of Californians were Hispanics compared to 18 percent of the total U.S. population. The number of Hispanics grew substantially between 2010 and 2016. Table 4 shows Hispanics have net undercount of 1.54 percent which is statistically significant and relatively large. So, a large and growing segment of the California population is a group that is among the most difficult to count in the Census. And this group is at risk of being undercounted in the 2020 Census. It should also be noted that some segments of the Hispanic population in California, such as recent immigrants and those who do not speak English well, are at a higher risk of being missed in the Census (Kassim 2017). 7 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
Table 3 shows the Black population in California is growing and Table 4 shows Blacks have a net undercount of a little over 2 percent. The undercount differential between whites and blacks has been a contentious issue in the Census for decades. TABLE 4. 2010 CENSUS NET UNDERCOUNT ESTIMATES BY RACE (ALONE OR IN COMBINATION) AND HISPANIC ORIGIN Net Undercount Rate U.S. Total 0.01 Non-Hispanic White Alone 0.83 White Alone or in Combination 0.54 Black Alone or in Combination -2.06 Asian Alone or in Combination 0 American Indian and Alaskan Native Alone or in Combination -0.15 On Reservation -4.88 American Indian Area Off Reservation 3.86 Balance of U.S. 0.05 Native Hawaiian and Pacific Islander Alone or in Combination -1.02 Some other Race -1.63 Hispanic -1.54 Note. The directionality of undercounts and overcounts have been reversed from the original table in order to keep them consistent within this publication. In order words, a negative sign implies an undercount in this table. Numbers in bold are statistically significantly different from zero. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2012, DSSD 2010 CENSUS COVERAGE MEASUREMENT MEMORANDUM SERIES 2012, 20101- G-01, Table 8 Young children are particularly vulnerable to be missed in the Census (O Hare 2015). One peerreviewed study showed there was a net undercount of 210,000 young children (age 0 to 4) in California in the 2010 Census (O Hare 2014). In other words, California accounts for about onefifth of the net undercount of one million young children nationwide. This amounts to 7.7 percent of this age group. Another report (O Hare et al. 2016) found a net undercount of 113,000 young Hispanic children in California in the 2010 Census and this amounts to almost 8 percent of all young Hispanic children in California. 8 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
Hispanic and Asian Subgroups The Asian population and the Hispanic population are treated as homogeneous groups with respect to undercount estimates from the Census Bureau. However, it is important to recognize that subgroups within the Hispanic and Asian populations may well have census coverages rates that are different than the group as a whole (O Hare and Felt 1991). There are no Census Bureau undercount estimates for Hispanic and Asian subgroups, but Table 5 shows a few socio-economic measures for selected subgroups of Hispanic and Asians. All the measures shown here have been linked to Census coverage. The point of this table is to illustrate the large variation in key measures among Hispanic and Asian subgroups. Given these differences on key measures among subgroups, it is reasonable to expect that the difficulty in enumerating these groups accurately also varies. TABLE 5. SELECTED SOCIOECONOMIC MEASURES OF HISPANIC AND ASIAN SUBGROUPS IN CALIFORNIA Source: Authors analysis of 2011-2015 ACS from the U.S. Census Bureau on IPUMS system at the University of Minnesota Percent in Poverty Percent who Speak Only English Percent Foreign-born Mexican 24% 23% 35% Puerto Ricans 18% 55% 19% Cubans 16% 36% 38% Chinese 22% 18% 69% Japanese 16% 56% 39% Filipino 10% 32% 67% Hmong 39% 12% 37% Loatian 26% 17% 55% 9 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
Population Living in Hard-to-Count Neighborhoods One way to identify which populations are likely to be difficult to enumerate in the 2020 Census is to look at who is living in Hard-to-Count (HTC) neighborhoods. There are no Census Bureau undercount estimates for Census tracts or neighborhoods but Mail Return Rates are often used as proxy for the risk of being missed in the Census (Erdman and Bates 2017). Data on the Census tract-level Mail Return Rates from the 2010 Census can be used to look at variations in the risk of net undercounts across California. Census tracts are relatively small pieces of geography used by the Census Bureau. The average Census tract contains about 4,000 people. The Mail Return Rate is basically the percent of occupied households that returned their census questionnaire in the mail before the door-to-door count begins. It is seen as a measure of cooperation with the Census Bureau (Census Bureau 2014) HTC neighborhoods have been identified here as those where the Mail Return Rate in the 2010 Census was in the bottom 20 percent of the distribution, that is, below 73 percent of the mailings were returned. Using that threshold, researchers have identified the population living in the HTC tracts in California. The results are shown in Table 6. (For more information on people living in HTC neighborhoods, go to The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights website at http://civilrights.org/census/). Data show that more than one-third of all Hispanics and Blacks in California live in HTC neighborhoods and more than a quarter of Native Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders and American Indians/Alaskan Natives live in HTC areas. The data in Table 6 show that for most minorities in California, large numbers and large percentages live in areas that are likely to be difficult to enumerate in the 2020 Census. TABLE 6. CALIFORNIA POPULATION LIVING IN HARD-TO-COUNT (HTC) CENSUS TRACTS* BY RACE** AND HISPANIC ORIGIN Total Population in Group (in 1000s) Population Living in HTC Tracts* (in 1000s) Percent of Population Living in HTC tracts* Non-Hispanic White Alone 14,879 2,568 17 Hispanics 14,751 5,064 34 Black Alone or in Combinat 2,710 1,025 38 Asian Alone or in Combination 6,001 1,140 19 American Indian and Alaskan Natives Alone or in Combination Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders Alone or in Combination 719 199 28 302 79 26 State Totals 38,421 9,667 25 10 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
*In this table, Hard-to-Count Census Tracts are those in the bottom 20 percent of 2010 Census Mail Return Rates (i.e. Mail Return Rates of 73 percent or less) or tracts for which a mail return rate is not applicable because they were enumerated in 2010 using the special Update/Enumerate method. ** Race groups are Alone or in Combination meaning anyone who selected this race is included even if they also marked another race as well. Anyone who marked Hispanic is included in the race groups as well. Note: the total population in this table does not match that shown in other tables because they come from different sources and reflect different time periods Source: Population totals in this table are from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2011-2015 American Community Survey estimates. 11 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
Largest Nine Counties in California Based on 2016 population estimates from the U.S Census Bureau there are nine counties in California with more than one million people. These nine counties are the focus on this section. Demographic details for these nine counties are shown in Appendix B. Similar data for all counties in California are shown in Appendix A. Table 7 shows that the clear majority (70 percent) of Californians live in one of these nine large counties. TABLE 7. POPULATION BY RACE AND HISPANIC IN 9 LARGEST COUNTIES IN CALIFORNIA; 2016 Total in 9 Largest Counties Balance of California Total Population Note: Since race groups are alone or in combination, some people are counted in more than one group. Numbers in 1000s. Source: U.S. Census Bureau, July 1, 2016 Population Estimates, available online at https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2016/demo/popest/counties-detail.html Moreover, these nine counties are home to the majority of the groups that are most likely to be undercounted in the Census. Table 7 shows that 81 percent of all Blacks or African American s live in these counties along with 71 percent of Hispanics Non-Hispanic Race Alone or in Combination White Black American Indian/Alaskan Native Asian Native Hawaiian /Pacific Islander Within these nine counties there are many areas (census tracts) that deserve special attention because they have low Mail Return Rates and in many cases these Hard-to-Count areas are home to a disproportionately high number of minorities. Table 8 provides data on the number Hispanic 27,373 9,990 2,047 218 4,826 183 10,909 11,877 5,738 494 174 1,376 76 4,372 Total in California 39,250 15,728 2,541 392 6,202 260 15,281 Percent of California Population in 9 Largest counties 70 64 81 56 78 71 71 and percent of people in each of the nine largest counties that are living in Hard-to-Count (HTC) Census tracts. Collectively there are more than 7.5 million people in these nine counties living in 12 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
HTC tracts. Statewide there are 9.7 million people in California living in HTC tracts so the nine largest counties account for 77 percent of the state total. The numbers range from 2.9 million in Los Angeles County to 200,000 in Contra Costa County. Collectively, more than a quarter (28 percent) of the population in the nine largest counties live in HTC neighborhoods. The percent of the total population living in HTC neighborhoods varies across the counties from a high of 38 percent in Riverside County to a low of 18 percent in Contra Costa County. TABLE 8. POPULATION LIVING IN HARD-TO-COUNT (HTC) CENSUS TRACTS* IN CALIFORNIA'S LARGEST COUNTIES (COUNTIES RANKED BY TOTAL POPULATION SIZE) Total Population in the County (in 1000s) Population Living in HTC Tracts (in 1000s) Perent of Total Poplulation Living HTC Tracts Los Angeles County 10,038 2,860 28% San Diego County 3,223 1,175 36% Orange County 3,116 779 25% Riverside County 2,298 871 38% San Bernardino County 2,095 700 33% Santa Clara County 1,868 267 14% Alameda County 1,585 413 26% Sacramento County 1,466 243 17% Contra Costa County 1,096 200 18% Total for 9 Counties 26,785 7,509 28% *In this table, Hard-to-Count Census Tracts are those in the bottom 20 percent of 2010 Census Mail Return Rates (i.e. Mail Return Rates of 73 percent or less) or tracts for which a mail return rate is not applicable because they were enumerated in 2010 using the special Update/Enumerate method. Source: Population totals in this table are from the U.S. Census Bureau's 2011-2015 American Community Survey estimates. 13 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
Summary The stakes are particularly high for California in the 2020 Census. The recent population increase in California has been driven by many groups that have been undercounted by the Census Bureau in the past. There are also many neighborhoods in California that are Hard-to- Count. Moreover, there are a number reasons (including insufficient funding) why the 2020 Census may be the most difficult in history (O Hare and Lowenthal 2015). More than ever before, places where non-profit organizations, state and local governments, and other groups help promote the Census are likely to get the most accurate count. An undercount in the 2020 Census would not only reduce the aid California gets from the Federal government, it could jeopardize its congressional representation. Past Congressional re-apportionments have shown that an undercount of just a few hundred people can cost a state a congressional seat. About the Author Dr. William O'Hare is a well-known demographer. For many years he coordinated and supervised the KIDS COUNT program at the Annie E. Casey Foundation. From 2011 to 2013, Dr. O Hare was also a research fellow at the U.S. Census Bureau. He has also served on numerous official Census Bureau Advisory Committees prior to the 2000 and 2010 decennial censuses. Dr. O'Hare is the author of the book "The Undercount of Young Children in the U.S. Decennial Census"(2015). He has testified on various demographic issues before Congress and has written many o-ed pieces for major newspapers across the country. 14 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
Appendices Appendix A. Demographic Detail for all the Counties in California: Counties ranked by Total Population Size Non-Hispanic Race Alone or in Combination Native Name Total Population White Black American Indian/Alaska n Native Asian Hawaiian /Pacific Islander Hispanic Total Los Angeles County 10,137,915 2,861,906 883,992 63,003 1,591,284 44,886 4,918,830 San Diego County 3,317,749 1,621,252 189,030 31,678 453,131 27,275 1,112,325 Orange County 3,172,532 1,380,462 66,163 19,328 689,591 17,936 1,086,691 Riverside County 2,387,741 911,040 166,132 23,427 177,311 12,323 1,156,169 San Bernardino County 2,140,096 667,073 195,142 20,147 166,605 10,980 1,129,893 Santa Clara County 1,919,402 672,469 57,319 12,761 730,074 12,771 497,340 Alameda County 1,647,704 583,984 198,401 13,778 531,166 22,130 371,072 Sacramento County 1,514,460 747,026 177,220 23,148 270,587 25,299 347,638 Contra Costa County 1,135,127 545,203 113,619 11,205 216,199 9,886 288,713 Fresno County 979,915 309,258 51,891 11,107 106,722 2,864 517,263 Kern County 884,788 322,659 51,955 11,069 47,004 2,253 467,575 San Francisco County 870,887 381,638 52,190 6,853 323,679 6,041 132,538 Ventura County 849,738 407,415 18,972 7,078 72,709 3,418 361,514 San Mateo County 764,797 327,579 23,284 4,489 234,900 14,635 189,309 San Joaquin County 733,709 260,369 59,112 8,753 122,985 6,883 302,152 Stanislaus County 541,560 243,843 18,072 6,842 35,217 5,962 247,001 Sonoma County 503,070 335,243 11,517 8,148 27,180 3,027 133,617 Tulare County 460,437 140,253 7,436 5,535 17,971 1,118 295,148 Santa Barbara County 446,170 209,952 10,640 4,564 29,067 1,643 201,345 Solano County 440,207 189,029 69,993 6,058 78,698 7,218 115,178 Monterey County 435,232 140,301 13,791 3,823 31,082 3,275 253,842 Placer County 380,531 291,340 8,783 5,173 34,756 2,030 52,567 San Luis Obispo County 282,887 202,435 6,361 3,616 13,874 1,024 63,172 Santa Cruz County 274,673 165,872 4,568 3,198 16,531 1,151 92,088 Merced County 268,672 80,693 9,739 2,495 21,701 1,150 158,200 Marin County 260,651 194,961 8,440 2,169 21,136 975 41,727 Butte County 226,864 172,414 5,770 6,700 13,190 1,174 36,282 Yolo County 215,802 109,504 6,944 2,752 35,521 1,833 68,027 El Dorado County 185,625 150,365 2,646 3,475 10,586 832 23,699 Imperial County 180,883 20,981 4,726 1,793 2,703 208 151,497 Shasta County 179,631 150,467 3,301 7,269 7,216 774 17,562 Madera County 154,697 55,715 5,640 2,802 3,790 344 88,802 Kings County 149,785 51,805 10,253 2,071 7,323 529 81,140 Napa County 142,166 78,225 3,675 1,499 13,265 704 48,247 Humboldt County 136,646 107,856 3,084 10,377 5,690 874 15,502 Nevada County 99,107 86,883 893 1,993 2,172 358 9,368 Sutter County 96,651 47,891 2,771 1,970 17,301 622 29,441 Mendocino County 87,628 59,647 1,230 4,834 2,354 294 21,866 Yuba County 75,275 45,037 3,685 2,555 6,222 579 20,931 Lake County 64,116 47,453 1,710 2,670 1,328 379 12,800 Tehama County 63,276 44,949 844 2,195 1,162 232 15,660 San Benito County 59,414 21,710 746 552 2,021 204 35,172 Tuolumne County 53,804 44,560 1,316 1,581 1,060 201 6,568 Calaveras County 45,171 38,159 599 1,299 1,073 191 5,247 Siskiyou County 43,603 35,119 1,026 2,791 1,032 237 5,367 Amador County 37,383 30,312 927 1,060 769 162 5,102 Lassen County 30,870 21,201 2,636 1,287 589 280 5,737 Glenn County 28,085 14,889 363 677 872 63 11,704 Del Norte County 27,540 18,350 1,047 2,579 1,163 85 5,418 Colusa County 21,588 8,009 316 392 390 91 12,698 Plumas County 18,627 16,091 338 726 351 65 1,669 Inyo County 18,144 11,893 245 2,139 388 39 3,877 Mariposa County 17,410 14,510 299 787 383 63 1,910 Mono County 13,981 9,378 190 357 349 122 3,868 Trinity County 12,782 11,059 169 897 235 49 931 Modoc County 8,795 6,974 156 385 122 42 1,338 Sierra County 2,947 2,537 37 82 32 5 325 Alpine County 1,071 745 11 209 17-111 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, available online at https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2016/demo/popest/counties-detail.h Note; Since race groups are alone or in combination, some people are counted in more than one group 15 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
Appendix B. Demographic Details for Nine Largest Counties in California Name Total Population White Non-Hispanic Race Alone or in Combination Black American Indian/ Alaskan Native Asian Source: Source: U.S. Census Bureau, July 1, 2016 Population Estimates, available online at https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2016/demo/popest/counties-detail.html Native Hawaiian /Pacific Islander Hispanic Los Angeles County 10,137,915 2,861,906 883,992 63,003 1,591,284 44,886 4,918,830 San Diego County 3,317,749 1,621,252 189,030 31,678 453,131 27,275 1,112,325 Orange County 3,172,532 1,380,462 66,163 19,328 689,591 17,936 1,086,691 Riverside County 2,387,741 911,040 166,132 23,427 177,311 12,323 1,156,169 San Bernardino County 2,140,096 667,073 195,142 20,147 166,605 10,980 1,129,893 Santa Clara County 1,919,402 672,469 57,319 12,761 730,074 12,771 497,340 Alameda County 1,647,704 583,984 198,401 13,778 531,166 22,130 371,072 Sacramento County 1,514,460 747,026 177,220 23,148 270,587 25,299 347,638 Contra Costa County 1,135,127 545,203 113,619 11,205 216,199 9,886 288,713 Nine County Total 27,372,726 9,990,415 2,047,018 218,475 4,825,948 183,486 10,908,671 16 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
Endnotes Anderson, M. and Fienberg, S.E., (2001). Who Counts? The Politics of Census Taking in Contemporary America, Russell Sage Foundation, New York. Baumle, A.K. and Poston, D. L. (2004). Apportioning the House of Representatives in 2000: The Effects of Alternative Policy Scenarios, Social Science Quarterly, Vol. 85, No. 3, Sept, pp 578-603. Blumerman, L.M., and Vidal, P.M., (2009). Uses of Population and Income Statistics in Federal Funds Distribution With a Focus on Census Bureau Data, Government Divisions Report Series, Research Report #2009-1, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC. Brace, K. (2016) No Change in Apportionment Allocations with New 2016 Census Estimates: But Greater Changes Likely by 2020. Election Data Services, December Erdman, C. and Bates, N. (2017), The Low Response Score (LRS): A Metric to Locate, Predict, and Manage Hard-to-Survey Populations, Public Opinion Quarterly, Volume 81, Number 1, Pages 144-156. Grofman, B., (1982). Representation and Redistricting Issues, Lexington Books, Lexington, MA. Kissam, E. (2017) Differential undercount of Mexican immigrant families in the U.S. Census, Statistical Journal of the International Association for Official Statistics, page 797-816. O Hare, W. P., & Felt, J. (1991, February).Asian Americans: America's Fastest Growing Minority Group. Population Trends and Public Policy(19). Washington, DC: Population Reference Bureau. O Hare, W.P., (2014). State-Level 2010 Census Coverage Rates for Young Children, Population Research and Policy Review, Volume 33, no. 6, pages 797-816. O Hare, W.P. (2015). The Undercount of Young Children in the U.S. Decennial Census. Springer Publishers O Hare, W. P. and Lowenthal, T. A. (2015). The 2020 Census: The Most Difficult in History? Applied Demography, Committee on Applied Demography Newsletter, pp 8-10, Population Association of America, Washington, DC. O Hare, W.P., Mayol-Garcia, Y., Wildsmith, E., and Torres, A., (2016) The Invisible Ones: How Latino Children Are Left Out of Our Nation s Census Count, Child Trends Hispanic Institute & National Association of Latino Elected Officials, Child Trends, Washington DC. Reamer, A. D., (2010). Counting For Dollars, Brookings Institute, Metropolitan Policy Program, Washington, DC. 17 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census
Reamer, A. D., (2017). Counting For Dollars, George Washington University, Metropolitan Policy Program, Washington, DC. The Leadership Conference Education Fund/Advancing Justice/National Association of Latino Elected Officials (2014). Race and Ethnicity in the 2020 Census: Improving Data to Capture a Multiethnic America, Leadership Conference Education Fund, Washington DC. The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights (2017). Fact Sheet: The Census and Civil Rights, Downloaded on June 13, 2017 from http://civilrightsdocs.info/pdf/census/fact- Sheet-Census-and-Civil-Rights.pdf U.S. Senate (1992). Dividing Dollars: Issues in Adjusting Decennial Counts and Intercensal Estimates for Funds Distribution, Report prepared by the Subcommittee on Government Information and Regulation of the Committee on Government Affairs, 102nd Congress, 2 nd session Senate Print 102-83, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC. U.S. Census Bureau (2014). 2014 Planning Data Base, U.S. Census Bureau, Washington, DC. U.S. Office of Management and Budget, (2001). Guidance on Aggregation and Allocation of Data on Race for Use in Civil Rights Monitoring and Enforcement, 18 Counting All Californians in the 2020 Census