Confidence in the Contemporary Photography market increases by % in the last 6 months The overall confidence in the Modern and Contemporary Photography market increased by 1.3% in the last 6 months, and currently stands at (a reading above implies that there is more positive market sentiment than negative). After a 38% jump in the Confidence Indicator between November 11 and May 12, the market confidence has risen by.6% in the last 12 months, signalling a continued positive outlook among the experts for the Modern and Contemporary Photography market. Whilst the Modern photography market saw a 17% increase in confidence between May and November 12, it was the Contemporary photography market that saw the fastest increase in the last 6 months of.2%, from 65 to 72. The Modern Photography market experienced a small decline of 2.2%, from 88 to 86 for the same period. However, the confidence in the Modern market remains high among the majority of the experts. April 13 Market Confidence Survey/ Photography Respondents sentiment towards the economy remain around the same level as 6 months ago, with the Economic Indicator currently standing at 51, down from 53 in November 12. The market remains evenly split between bullish and bearish sentiment towards the shortterm economic outlook. The Expectation Indicator stands 22% above the Current Indicator, suggesting that the experts believe the photography market will continue its positive trend in the coming 6 months, the significantly higher Expectation Indicator is primarily driven by a more positive outlook for the economy. In terms of market direction for Modern Photography, the outlook has become more cautious. 57% of the experts believe the Modern Photography market will go up (versus 92% in November 12), a further 43% think it will be flat or no change (versus 8% in November 12). None of the experts believe the market will fall in the next 6 months. For the Contemporary Photography market the outlook remains the same as in November 12, with where 33% of the experts believe the market will go up and 67% believe it will remain around current levels.
[2] Auction market starts 13 on a positive note In April 13, the Modern and Contemporary Photography auctions in New York increased their sales by 85% from the same period in 12 (based on six auction sales instead of the traditional three). The recent auction season saw a focus on single owner sales and an increase in the works by modern masters. Phillips de Pury organised the sale titled Curious Collector: Important Photographs from the Collection of Dr. Anthony Terrana ; Christie s had two interesting sales; the singleowner collection called The delighted Eye as well as an online only sale of works by Diane Arbus which raised $267,000 against an estimate of $218,000 to $0,000. Sotheby s included 59 works from the collection of Paul Lloyd Scharf, in the singleowner sale titled The Modern Eye. ArtTactic Photography Market Confidence Indicator (Overall) Confidence Indicator 0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0 Risk & Speculation Risk Barometer for the Modern market currently stands at 3.4, which indicates a belowmedium risk level. This is up from 3.3 in November 12, and back to the level of May 12. However this marginal change signals that the overall perception of risk in the Modern photography market remains low. A total of 92% experts rated the market 5 and below (on a scale from 1, where 1= very low risk and = very high risk.) The Risk Barometer for the Contemporary Photography market is currently at 5.8, which is 2.4% higher than November 12, and back to the levels of May 12. This places this market in the medium risk category. A total of 44% experts (up from 41% in May 12) rated the market 5 and below (on a scale from 1, where 1= very low risk and = very high risk.) The Contemporary Photography Risk Barometer stands % higher than the equivalent reading for the Modern Photography market, just as it did in our last survey in November 12. The latest survey findings show that the Speculation Barometer for Modern photography has increased by %, with a current reading of 4.4 versus 4.0 in November 12. The Barometer reading is in the lowertomedium Speculation category, and there are few signs that speculation poses any threat to the current market. A large majority, 69% of the experts rated the Modern Photography market at 5 or below (on a scale from 1, where 1= very low level of speculation and = very high level of speculation.) The Speculation Barometer for the Contemporary Photography market came in at 6.1; 4.4% higher than in November 12. There are some signs that speculation is increasing, with 61% of the experts rating the Speculation threat at 6 or above (on a scale from 1, where 1= very low level speculation and = very high level of speculation).. ArtTactic Photography Market Confidence Modern & Contemporary Indicators vs Economic Indicator 0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0 Economy Modern Photography Contemporary Photography The ArtTactic Photography Art Market Confidence Indicator was launched in March 11,and this month acts as the base month for the indicator. Data is collected and the survey findings are made available every 6 months. The questions asked to compute the indicator will remain constant throughout the future of this survey. The interim survey is based on a sample of 61 key international collectors, curators, auction houses, dealers and art advisors. ArtTactic Photography Auction Sales (USD) 06 April 13 (Christie s, Sotheby s and Phillips de Pury) Millions $45 $ $35 $ $25 $ $15 $ $5 $ 1st Half 06 2nd Half 06 1st Half 07 2nd Half 07 1st Half 08 2nd Half 08 1st Half 09 2nd Half 09 1st Half 2nd Half 1st Half 11 2nd Half 11 1st Half 12 2nd Half 12 1st Half 13 Modern Contemporary Vintage
Copyright ArtTactic 13 www.arttactic.com [3] Modern Photography Market Overall confidence remains high, but outlook for the lower end of the Modern Photography market deterioates. The recent ArtTactic Confidence Survey shows that the confidence in the Modern Photography market remains high, with a reading of 86.2 (a 2% decrease, down from 88 in November 12). The Current Indicator for the Modern Photography market (measuring the sentiment now versus 6 months ago) is at 83, down a 5% from November 12, but still higher than in all other previous seasons. The Expectation Indicator is just a 1% higher than last November, at (measuring the sentiment in the next 6 months). The fact that the Expectation Indicator is sitting above the Current Indicator signals that the respondents expect the current positive sentiment to continue in the next 6 months. Modern Photography Market Confidence Ranking April 13 Rank April 13 Artist Name Confidence Indicator 1 William Eggleston 92 2 Edward Weston 89 3 Diane Arbus 88 4 Richard Avedon 88 5 Irvin Penn 85 6 Garry Winogrand 85 7 Man Ray 85 8 Harry Callahan 9 Paul Strand 77 Robert Mapplethorpe 76 There has been a significant decrease in number of experts believing the market will go up in the next 6 months. The current survey signals that 57% of the experts believe the Modern Photography market will go up further in the next 6 months (versus 92% in November 12). A further 43% think it will be flat or no change. Just as in November 12, none of the respondents to the survey feels that the market for Modern photography will go down, but rather that it will consolidate around current levels. In terms of price segment, the greatest decrease has been in the lower end of the market, with confidence indicator for works under $,000 going down a 26% from 47 in November 12 to 35. Works in the $,000$,000 saw a decrease of 13%, and currently stand at a confidence indicator of 79. The decrease in confidence for the lower price segments signals that the market is increasingly seeking value in higher price categories. ArtTactic Modern Photography Market Confidence Indicator Current vs Expectation Indicator 0 0 Modern Current Indicator Modern Expectation Indicator Risk & Speculation Barometer Modern Photography Market Price Segment (US$) Market Confidence Modern Photography Market Risk Barometer.0 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 RISK SPECULATION Confidence Indicator 0 >$0,000 $k $0k $k $k <$k
[4] ArtTactic: Shortterm Confidence Map April 13 Modern Photographers William Eggleston Edward Weston Diane Arbus Richard Avedon Irvin Penn Garry Winogrand Man Ray Harry Callahan Paul Strand Robert Mapplethorpe Henri CartierBresson Bill Brandt Helen Levitt Josef Sudek Manuel Álvarez Bravo Helmut Newton Ansel Adams Willy Ronis Norman Parkinson Guy Bourdin Horst P. Horst Lisette Model Peter Lindbergh Herb Ritts Robert Doisneau 0% % % % % % % % % % 0% Positive Neutral Negative Modern Photography: Shortterm Artist Confidence Ranking The average Artist Confidence Indicator for the Modern Photography Art market stands at 64, down from 69 in November and May 12 and also the lowest rank since 11. Only 28% (7 out of the 25) of the Modern photographers in the survey have had a positive increase in the shortterm confidence. In consonance with the market trend, the majority of the artists saw a decrease in their confidence. Some of the most notable shifts in confidence have been for Guy Bourdin, who has gone down from a positive overall confidence of 71 to 41 (a 43% decrease and signals that the majority of the experts surveyed are negative towards the shortterm outlook of this market). Josef Sudek who had the second highest confidence in the previous survey has also dropped 39% (from 92 to 69), however the majority of the experts remain positive towards this market. The Top 5 Modern Photography Confidence ranking is still led by William Eggleston, followed by Edward Weston, Diane Arbus, Richard Avedon and Irvin Penn. Eggleston has been ranked number one for the 5th consecutive season, and has been in the top 5 since the survey was launched in March 11. A total of 68%, or 17 out of the 25 (down from 18 out of 25 in Novemebr 12) of the Modern photographers have a Confidence Indicator of more than. All the photographers in the top, have a Confidence Indicator results above.
Copyright ArtTactic 13 www.arttactic.com [5 Modern Photography Artist Confidence Indicators Ansel Adams Shortterm Confidence Indicator 0 Diana Arbus Shortterm Confidence Indicator 0 Garry Winogrand Shortterm Confidence Indicator 0 Josef Sudek Shortterm Confidence Indicator 0 Guy Bourdin Shortterm Confidence Indicator 0 Helmut Newton Shortterm Confidence Indicator 0
[6] Contemporary Photography Market Increasing confidence in the Contemporary Photography market. In the last 6 months, experts positive outlook on the Contemporary Photography market has seen an increase, after a slight decrease in November 12 (from 67 to 65). The Confidence Indicator is now at its highest point since the photography confidence survey was first carried out; sitting at 71.7; an increase of % since November 12. Furthermore, the experts portray a more positive outlook in the next 6 months, with the Expectation Indicator now standing at 76 against the Current Indicator of 68. This suggests that the majority of the experts are positive about the shortterm outlook for the Contemporary Photography market. A 33% of the respondents believe that there will be a positive trend in the direction of the market in the next 6 months, and a further 67% expects the market to remain stable. These results are very similar to what we saw in the previous survey; with a 34% expecting the market to go up and a 66% to remain flat. There has only been a slight swift toward an expectation of more stability. The Contemporary Photography market has seen a considerable confidence increase across all pricesegments, except from the low end of the market (below $,000), where confidence has dropped 56% and currently stands at 25, recording its lowest reading since March 11. The highest confidence can be found in the $,000 to $0,000 segment, with a confidence indicator of 89, 41% up from a 63 in November 13. There has also been an increase in the topend of the price segment (above than $0,000), which has seen a major shift in confidence from 47 in May 12 to 63 in November 12 to 75 in April 13. This signals that the Contemporary Photography market, just as the Modern, is also seeing opportunities and relative value at the higher end of the price spectrum. Contemporary Photography Market Confidence Ranking April 13 Rank Apr 13 ArtTactic Contemporary Photography Market Confidence Indicator Current vs Expectation Indicator 0 0 Artist Name Contemporary Currrent Indicator Contemporary Expectation Indicator Confidence Indicator 1 Edward Burtynsky 88 2 Stephen Shore 79 3 Hiroshi Sugimoto 79 4 Richard Misrach 77 5 Sebastiao Salgado 74 6 PhilipLorca Dicorcia 72 7 Robert Polidori 69 8 Mitch Epstein 69 9 Martin Parr 64 Erwin Olaf 62 Risk & Speculation Barometer Contemporary Photography Market Price Segment (US$) Market Confidence Contemporary Photography Market.0 0 9.0 8.0 Risk Barometer 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 Confidence Indicator 2.0 1.0 RISK SPECULATION >$0,000 $k $0k $k $k <$k
Copyright ArtTactic 13 www.arttactic.com [7] ArtTactic Quadrant Sentiment Evaluation April 13 0 Shortterm Performers Longterm Performers Edward Burtynsky Confidence [shortterm confidence] SallyMann David Lachapelle Loreta Lux Vik Muniz PhilipLorca Dicorcia Richard Misrach Sebastiao Salgado Mitch Epstein Robert Simon Polidori Erwin Olaf Norfolk Martin Florian Parr MaierAichen Candida Hofer Nobuyoshi Wolfgang Araki Tillmans David Bailey William Wegman Shirin Neshat Annie Leibovitz Peter Beard Larry Clark Nan Goldin Under Performers Joel PeterWitkin Stephen Shore Jeff Wall Richard Prince Andreas Gursky Cindy Sherman Future Performers Hiroshi Sugimoto Positive Change Neutral Negative Change US & European Confidence Survey 0 0 Longterm Confidence (High importance in years time) (%) Contemporary Photography: Shortterm and Longterm Artist Confidence Ranking The average Artist Confidence Indicator for the Contemporary Photography Art market is currently standing at 55, down from 61 in November 12. A total of 76% (19 out of the 25) of the Contemporary photographers in the survey have had a negative trend in their shortterm confidence. This is a shift from last period s short term confidence, where only artists saw a decrease in their short term confidence. So, although overall confidence in Contemporary Photography is up, it seems to be specific to a relative small group of artists seen in the Shortterm and Longterm performers category above. Among the artists markets that have seen an increase have been Erwin Olaf s, who has moved from a to a 62 (24%), and Hiroshi Sugimoto s (41%). The greatest falls in confidence have been for Peter Beard (31%) and Joel Peter Witkin and Wolfagang Tillmans who have both gone from a confidence of above (52% for both) to a ranking under (39 and 27 respectively). The Top 5 Contemporary Photography Confidence ranking is led by Edward Burtynsky, and followed by Stephen Shore, Hiroshi Sugimoto, Richard Misrach and Sebastiao Salgado. Stephen Shore, who came up from 15th place 12 months ago to take the top spot is still strong in the top 5 ranking. Sugimoto climbed from the 17th place to 3rd, substituting Peter Beard who in November 12 held that position after climbing from 13th place; today he is
[8] ArtTactic: Shortterm Confidence Map April 13 Contemporary Photographers [How do you feel about the artist s market in the next 6 months?] Edward Burtynsky Stephen Shore Hiroshi Sugimoto Richard Misrach Sebastiao Salgado PhilipLorca Dicorcia Robert Polidori Mitch Epstein Martin Parr Erwin Olaf Sally Mann Florian MaierAichen Nobuyoshi Araki Simon Norfolk Candida Hofer Wolfgang Tillmans Nan Goldin Peter Beard David Bailey JoelPeter Witkin William Wegman David Lachapelle Annie Leibovitz Larry Clark Loretta Lux 0% % % % % % % % % % 0% Positive Neutral Negative at the 18th place. Since the launch of the Survey in March 11, Edward Burtynsky has remained in the Top 3 ranked artists in terms of shortterm confidence. 18 out of the 25 artists (72%) achieved a short term confidence indicator over. This means that more than half of the experts were confident about their performance in the next 6 months. However only two artists have a long term confidence indicator of over, implying that more than half of the experts believe these artists will be of high importance in years time. These artists are Hiroshi Sugimoto and Stephen Shore, followed closely by Nobuyoshi Araki. The group of contemporary photographers that enjoys both high shortterm and longterm confidence, are artists that straddle both the specialist photography market as well as the international contemporary market, such as Cindy Sherman, Andreas Gursky, Jeff Wall and Richard Prince. Cindy Sherman has been ranked among the top 5 contemporary artists in the last 3 years in ArtTactic s US & European Art Market Confidence Survey (a survey which was launched in May 05). Cindy Sherman s art market is competing with many of the other heavyweights in the Postwar and Contemporary segment, and her top works are frequently selling above the $1 million mark, prices that were unheard of for contemporary photography 7 years ago, and tells us a lot about the market s acceptance of photography as a medium.
Copyright ArtTactic 12 www.arttactic.com [9] ArtTactic: Longterm Confidence Map April 13 Contemporary Photographers [How important do you think the artists will be in years time?] Hiroshi Sugimoto Stephen Shore Nobuyoshi Araki JoelPeter Witkin Martin Parr Mitch Epstein Nan Goldin Robert Polidori Sebastiao Salgado Candida Hofer Wolfgang Tillmans Larry Clark Richard Misrach Simon Norfolk Peter Beard Florian MaierAichen PhilipLorca Dicorcia Edward Burtynsky Annie Leibovitz Erwin Olaf David Bailey William Wegman Loretta Lux David Lachapelle Sally Mann 0% % % % % % % % % % 0% High Medium Low
[] Contemporary Photography Artist Confidence Indicators Annie Leibovitz Shortterm Confidence Indicator 0 Edward Burtynsky Shortterm Confidence Indicator 0 Peter Beard Shortterm Confidence Indicator 0 William Wegman Shortterm Confidence Indicator 0 Mitch Epstein Shortterm Confidence Indicator 0 Hiroshi Sugimoto Shortterm Confidence Indicator 0
Copyright ArtTactic 12 www.arttactic.com [11] Contemporary Photography Rankings April 13 ArtTactic Market Confidence Ranking April 13 (Shortterm) Rank Apr 13 Artist Name Confidence Indicator +/ change from last ranking 1 Edward Burtynsky 88 1 2 Stephen Shore 79 1 3 Hiroshi Sugimoto 79 14 4 Richard Misrach 77 5 Sebastiao Salgado 74 Level 6 PhilipLorca Dicorcia 72 Level 7 Robert Polidori 69 3 8 Mitch Epstein 69 8 9 Martin Parr 64 1 Erwin Olaf 62 11 Sally Mann 61 7 12 Florian MaierAichen 59 3 13 Nobuyoshi Araki 58 4 14 Simon Norfolk 56 7 15 Candida Hofer 56 3 16 Wolfgang Tillmans 55 5 17 Nan Goldin 53 4 18 Peter Beard 53 15 19 David Bailey 44 4 JoelPeter Witkin 39 2 21 William Wegman 27 2 22 David Lachapelle 26 1 23 Annie Leibovitz 23 1 24 Larry Clark 13 1 25 Loretta Lux 11 1 ArtTactic Longevity Ranking April 13 (Longterm) Rank Apr 13 Artist Name High % +/ change from last ranking 1 Hiroshi Sugimoto 79% 2 Stephen Shore 51% Level 3 Nobuyoshi Araki 48% 3 4 JoelPeter Witkin 44% 3 5 Martin Parr 38% 6 Mitch Epstein 36% 2 7 Nan Goldin 34% 2 8 Robert Polidori 34% 3 9 Sebastiao Salgado 33% 6 Candida Hofer 31% 6 11 Wolfgang Tillmans 31% 12 Larry Clark % 5 13 Richard Misrach % 1 14 Simon Norfolk 26% 4 15 Peter Beard 25% 5 16 Florian MaierAichen 23% 2 17 PhilipLorca Dicorcia 23% 4 18 Edward Burtynsky 18% 2 19 Annie Leibovitz 16% 3 Erwin Olaf 16% 3 21 David Bailey 15% 8 22 William Wegman 13% 3 23 Loretta Lux 11% 19 24 David Lachapelle 8% Level 25 Sally Mann 8% Level Survey Methodology The ArtTactic Photography Market Confidence Indicator was launched in March 11, and this month will act as the base month for the indicator. Data will be collected and made available every 6 months. The questions asked to compute the indicator will remain constant throughout the future of this survey. The indicator is based on responses to 6 questions included in the survey: 1. Respondents appraisal of current economic conditions. 2. Respondents expectations regarding economic conditions six months hence. 3. Respondents appraisal of the current Modern Photography market. 4. Respondents expectations regarding the Modern Photography market six months hence. 5. Respondents appraisal of the current Contemporary Photography market. 6. Respondents expectations regarding the Contemporary Photography market six months hence. For each of the 6 questions, there are three response options: POSITIVE, NEGATIVE and NEUTRAL. For each of the six question (above), the POSITIVE figure is divided by the sum of the POSITIVE and NEGATIVE to yield a proportion, which we call the RELATIVE value. For each question, the average RELATIVE for the calendar year. May 05 will then be used as a benchmark to yield the INDICATOR value for that question. The indicators are then averaged together as follows: Art Market Confidence INDICATOR: Average of all 6 indicators; Present Situation INDICATOR: Average of indicators for questions 1, 3, and 5; Expectations INDICATOR: Average of indicators for questions 2, 4 and 6.
[12] Modern Photography Rankings April 13 ArtTactic Market Confidence Ranking April 13 (Shortterm) Rank April 13 Artist Name Confidence Indicator +/ change from last ranking 1 William Eggleston 92 Level 2 Edward Weston 89 2 3 Diane Arbus 88 6 4 Richard Avedon 88 2 5 Irvin Penn 85 Level 6 Garry Winogrand 85 1 7 Man Ray 85 4 8 Harry Callahan 5 9 Paul Strand 77 2 Robert Mapplethorpe 76 2 11 Henri CartierBresson 72 1 12 Bill Brandt 72 5 13 Helen Levitt 5 14 Josef Sudek 69 12 15 Manuel Álvarez Bravo 67 5 16 Helmut Newton 63 2 17 Ansel Adams 52 2 18 Willy Ronis 5 19 Norman Parkinson 44 6 Guy Bourdin 41 4 21 Horst P. Horst 36 2 22 Lisette Model 33 Level 23 Peter Lindbergh 33 1 24 Herb Ritts 4 25 Robert Doisneau 15 4
[13] About ArtTactic Contact Information: Anders Petterson Nathan Engelbrecht ArtTactic Ltd Rivington House 82 Great Eastern Street London EC2A 3JF United Kingdom E: info@arttactic.com W: www.arttactic.com Copyright 13 ArtTactic Ltd, All rights reserved. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. This report has been prepared and issued by ArtTactic Ltd. The information herein was obtained from various sources; we do not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. *Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes an offer, or an invitation to make an offer, to buy or sell any works of art related to the artist in this report. This research report is prepared for general circulation and is circulated for general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. You should seek specialist advice regarding the appropriateness of buying or selling any works of art or the strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Investors should note that income from buying works of art, if any, may fluctuate and that each work of art s price or value may rise or fall. Accordingly, investors may receive back less than originally invested. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Foreign currency rates of exchange may adversely affect the value, price or income of any security or related investment mentioned in this report.