Verdiskaping ved å utvikle og ta i bruk OG21-prioriterte teknologier OG 21-Forum Jarand Rystad 30.November 2016 This document is the property of Rystad Energy. The document must not be reproduced or distributed in any forms, in parts or full without permission from Rystad Energy. The information contained in this document is based on Rystad Energy s global oil & gas database UCUBE, public information from company presentations, industry reports, and other, general research by Rystad Energy. The document is not intended to be used on a stand-alone basis but in combination with other material or in discussions. The document is subject to revisions. Rystad Energy is not responsible for actions taken based on information in this document.
Content Reduction of CO 2 emissions Reduced cost and increased productivity Resource realization 2
Content Reduction of CO 2 emissions Reduced cost and increased productivity Resource realization 3
Base case: Stable future NCS production average of 4.0 million boe/d to 2030 5 4 3 NCS oil and gas production by current (2016) lifecycle, Rystad Energy base case Million boe/d History Undiscovered Discovery Under development Producing Forecast Next NCS Development cycle Johan Castberg Johan Sverdrup 2 Alta/Gohta Pil og Bue Wisting Possibly next large Barents Sea development cycle 2 1 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 4
Base case for CO 2 -emissions at NCS: 2030 as in 2015, decline to 6 Mt/year in 2050 Rystad Energy estimated upstream CO 2 -emissions from fields at the NCS by current (2016) status Million tonnes CO 2 14 Historical Period I: Towards 2030 Period II: Post 2030 12 10 11.4 11.2 Undiscovered Discovery Under development Producing 8 6 6 4 2 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 5
Zero emissions for new fields : Down to 4.7 Mt in 2050 Rystad Energy estimated upstream CO 2 -emissions from fields at the NCS by current (2016) status Million tonnes CO 2 14 Historical Period I: Towards 2030 Period II: Post 2030 12 11.4 10.7 10 8 6 4.7 4 2 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 6
Power efficiency at 40% (use existing technologies): To 9.5 Mt in 2030 Rystad Energy estimated upstream CO 2 -emissions from fields at the NCS by current (2016) status Million tonnes CO 2 14 Historical Period I: Towards 2030 Period II: Post 2030 12 11.4 9.5 10 8 6 4 5.2 3.9 2 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 7
New technologies and renewable to Aasgard, Gullfaks and Oseberg; Further down Rystad Energy estimated upstream CO 2 -emissions from fields at the NCS by current (2016) status Million tonnes CO 2 14 Historical Period I: Towards 2030 Period II: Post 2030 12 10 11.4 6.3 New technologies for 60% efficiency Renewable to Aasgard, Gullfaks and Oseberg 8 6 4 4.1 2.8 2 0 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 8
Summary: Max potential 5 Mt/year down to 2030 and 3 Mt/year to 2050 Expected reduction effect* Field group Measure Description Period I: To 2030 Period II: 2030-2050 All fields 1. 0,2 0,1 Non sanctioned 2. 0,5 1,3 3. 1,7 0,8 Producing fields 4. 2,0 0,8 5. Depends on number of fields - could potentially see larger contribution 0,8 0,2 CCS 6. CCS could yield reductions in CO 2 emissions, which are not quantified here. *Mt CO 2 per year compared to Rystad Energy base case Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis Identified potential 4,9 3,2 9
Content Reduction of CO 2 emissions Reduced cost and increased productivity Resource realization 10
Large potential from increased drilling efficiency; above 9 billion NOK annually Well capex type Field type Average annual well cost (2016-50) [BNOK real 2016] Average annual cost saving potential BNOK real 2016 Cost savings by lifecycle Fixed with drilling facility 7,1 0,3 [CELLÅDE] Fixed without drilling facility 8,9 1,0 [CELLÅDE] Development and infill drilling Floater incl. drilling facility 2,1 0,1 [CELLÅDE] Floater excl. drilling facility 8,3 0,9 [CELLÅDE] Subsea tie-backs 39,2 4,4 [CELLEOM Exploration drilling 22,4 2,3 [CELLÅDE] Field Discovery YTF Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis 11
Increased recovery after efficiency gains: 2.6 bn boe due to extra wells for same cost Well capex type Field type Drilled wellbores (1970-16) [Number] Base case future wellbores (2016-2050) Cost efficiency gains Technology enabled wellbores [Number] Marginal drilling target [mmsm3 o.e.] New resources/ increased recovery [mmboe] Fixed with drilling facility ELLÅD 0.25 million sm3 o.e. Fixed without drilling facility ELLÅD 0.5 million sm3 o.e. Development and infill drilling Floater incl. drilling facility ELLÅD 0.75 million sm3 o.e. Floater excl. drilling facility ELLÅD 1.0 million sm3 o.e. Subsea tie-backs ELLÅD 1.25 million sm3 o.e. 415 additional wells 2.6 billion boe Source: Petoro; NPD; RigCube; UCube; Rystad Energy research and analysis 12
Production process optimization could increase recovery by 3-9 percent Comparison of availability proxy on NCS, per production facility type Fixed installations with drilling facility Fixed installations without drilling facility Floaters Subsea tie-backs Ekofisk Field 2 Field 3 Field 4 Field 5 Field 6 Field 7 Field 8 Field 9 Field 10 Average Field 11 Field 12 Field 13 Field 14 Field 15 Field 16 Field 17 Field 18 Field 19 Field 20 91,9 % 91,6 % 89,6 % 89,2 % 89,2 % 89,0 % 88,7 % 88,2 % 88,1 % 87,3 % 87,1 % 86,7 % 86,6 % 86,5 % 86,2 % 86,0 % 84,0 % 82,9 % 82,1 % 80,6 % 78,6 % Tor Field 2 Average Field 3 Field 4 Field 5 Field 6 Field 7 85,9 % 83,8 % 83,7 % 83,2 % 82,6 % 82,4 % 81,1 % 77,5 % Heidrun Field 2 Field 3 Field 4 Field 5 Average Field 6 Field 7 Field 8 Field 9 Field 10 Field 11 Field 12 90,5 % 90,4 % 89,4 % 87,2 % 86,9 % 85,4 % 85,2 % 84,9 % 84,5 % 83,1 % 82,2 % 77,1 % 70,6 % Hyme Field 2 Field 3 Field 4 Field 5 Field 6 Field 7 Field 8 Field 9 Field 10 Field 11 Average Field 12 Field 13 Field 14 Field 15 Field 16 Field 17 Field 18 Field 19 Field 20 Field 21 Field 22 Field 23 Field 24 Field 25 89,7 % 89,4 % 89,2 % 88,9 % 85,2 % 84,9 % 84,0 % 83,0 % 83,0 % 82,7 % 82,1 % 82,0 % 81,4 % 81,2 % 81,0 % 80,9 % 80,6 % 80,3 % 79,5 % 79,1 % 77,5 % 75,3 % 73,0 % 69,1 % 69,0 % 65,7 % +6% +3% +6% +9% 91,9 % 87,1 % 85,9 % 83,7 % 90,5 % 85,4 % 89,7 % 82,0 % Top tier Average Top tier Average Top tier Average Top tier Average 13
Optimization of topside processing and well productivity could add 4 billion boe Fixed platforms incl. drilling facility [Million boe] Fixed platforms excl. drilling facility [Million boe] Floaters [Million boe] Subsea tiebacks [Million boe] Total by time interval [Million boe] Total by lifecycle [Million boe] Increased production from processing optimization Long-term (2030-2050) Mid-term (2016-2030) 300 300 400 1 800 2 800 2 800 YTF; 1 000 1 500 Discoveries; 600 1 300 Fields; 1 200 Increased production from downhole production optimization Long-term (2030-2050) Mid-term (2016-2030) 500 200 800 1 500 1 500 800 700 YTF; 500 Discoveries; 300 Fields. 600 2 600 4 300 4 300 Total increase in resources 2016-2050 300 800 600 YTF; 1 500 Discoveries; 1 000 Fields. 1 800 Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis 14
Alternatively, optimization could yield 15 BNOK in opex savings (shorter life-time) Fixed platforms incl. drilling facility [BNOK real 2016] Fixed platforms excl. drilling facility [BNOK real 2016] Floaters [BNOK real 2016] Subsea tie-backs [BNOK real 2016] Total by time interval [BNOK real 2016] Total by lifecycle [BNOK real 2016] Increased production from processing optimization Long-term (2030-2050) Mid-term (2016-2030) 42 41 74 159 316 316 (9.3 per year) YTF; 49 Discoveries; 100 272 Fields; 167 44 Increased production from downhole production optimization Long-term (2030-2050) Mid-term (2016-2030) 50 46 89 186 186 YTF; 33 166 Discoveries; 73 19 Fields. 79 (5.5 per year) 248 501 501 (15 per year) YTF; 82 Total reduction in cost 2016-2050 42 91 120 Discoveries; 173 Fields. 246 Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis 15
Content Reduction of CO 2 emissions Reduced cost and increased productivity Resource realization 16
NCS resources are realized through exploration, development and production 17
Summary of technology potential for resource realization Technology area Exploration Increased discoveries Production Increased recovery Field development Technically enabled Marginal project sanctioning Subsurface understanding 3 bnboe 6 bnboe 9% points higher recovery rate Drilling efficiency 1 bnboe 3 bnboe 5-11% lower well cost Production optimization N/A 2.5 bnboe Optimized topside processing 4-9% higher production Improved subsea systems EOR Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis 18 1.5 bnboe Low cost intervention and smart wells 3 bnboe 1.1 bnboe from increased mobility control and 1.7 bnboe from immobile oil 3.5 bnboe Increased tie-in distance 2.5 bnboe Life time extension 1 bnboe 20% lower cost of production systems 8% higher recovery rate SUM 4 bnboe 14 bnboe 3.5 bnboe 4.7 bnboe Platforms 0.7 bnboe Subsea tie-backs N/A N/A 4 bnboe
Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis Project Resources* (Million boe) Assessment of potential for new facilities # facilities Central Graben Offshore, NO Stavanger Platform Offshore, NO Horda Platform Offshore, NO Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis Danish Norwegian Basin Offshore, NO Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis With expected resources in the range 400-500 million boe, a new standalone platform could be viewed as economically viable. The resources however is expected to be located close to the Utsira area (~20-30 km from the Johan Sverdrup platform, and thus we expect potential discoveries developed as tiebacks to existing facilities. Expected proc. capacity Expected resources to be put on stream towards 2050 of around 300 million boe. As the Stavanger Platform Area lies only around 30-40 km from shore, the resources is expected developed with a subsea to shore solution. Project Resources* (Million boe) Assessment of potential for new facilities # facilities The resource estimates are in the borderline of what is considered large enough to justify a standalone development. Located close With to currently potential producing discoveries facilities (Kristin, Skarv and Norne), located relatively close to the Utsira but area due to (mostly large expected within 30-50 discovered km away volumes Rystad Energy estimates from the Johan Sverdrup facilities), a new the standalone project is likely development. developed with a tieback solution. The More Basin Offshore project is located close to the Ormen Lange Located around 30-40km southeast subsea of Sleipner. to shore Resources development expected (on stream to 2007). With longer distance be produced towards 2050 is considered from shore to small (compared to justify to Ormen a standalone Lange), and with liquids estimated to development and the project is likely account tied for back around to Sleipner 70% of if the discovered expected discovered volumes, a subsea and developed. tieback to shore is considered unlikely, and Rystad Energy estimates a new standalone producing facility. Expected proc. capacity Sorvestlandet High Offshore, Relatively small resource base. Expected to resources lie within to 60-90 be put km on from stream the towards 2050 of around 200- NO Ekofisk complex. Seems unlikely 300 with million a standalone boe, which facility, we expect so likely will tied either be tied back to one of the back to Ekofisk Project if developed. producing Resources* facilities (Million in the boe) nearby area, Assessment or developed of with potential a subsea for to new facilities # facilities shore solution. The Bjarmeland Offshore project is expected to potentially contain substantial amount of resources. The area extends from the Snohvit area into the Southeast Barents Sea. Due to the large potential resources discovered, and the large and *Resources represented as total expected production towards 2050 from currently non awarded open blocks. Blocks in non-open areas are excluded. immature area, Rystad Energy expects that the Project could yield two The Voring Marginal Hogda is expected to hold limited resources to be Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis standalone new facilities, which could also work as hubs for other potential put on stream towards 2050. If the project discoveries developed in the area. it will liekly be as a subsea tieback. Resources in the range of 800-900 is expected discovered and produced towards 2050. Rystad Energy estimate a standalone facility development, which could also be a hub for other developments in the area, but some resources could alternatively be tied back to shore, dependent on the exact location of the discovered volumes Resources in the range of 700-800 million boe is expected discovered and produced towards 2050. Located close to the Goliat FPSO, but due to large expected discovered volumes Rystad Energy estimates a new standalone development. Resources in the range of 500 million boe is expected discovered and produced *Resources represented as total expected production towards 2050 from currently non awarded open blocks. Blocks in non-open towards areas 2050. are excluded. Located close to the Johan Castberg field, expected to be Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis developed with a FPSO, but due to large expected discovered volumes Rystad Energy estimates a new standalone development. Potentially long tie-back distance to Finnmark/Bjarmeland facilities? Estimated to contain around 200-300 million boe to potentially be put on stream towards 2050. If the project is developed it will likely be as a tieback to other facilities expected to be developed in the area (Johan Castberg or Alta/Gohta) Resources estimated to be discovered in several open areas in the Barents Sea. Likely developed as subsea tiebacks to the facilities expected to be put on stream if developed. *Resources represented as total expected production towards 2050 from currently non awarded open blocks. Blocks in non-open areas are excluded. Source: Rystad Energy research and analysis Expected proc. capacity Example: Additonal resources from increased tie-back from 65 km to 100 km Overview of assumed new platforms on the NCS (Undiscovered resources) For analysis of future platforms (YTF), see separate analysis North Sea: Open acreage resources expected to lie within reach to existing infrastructure North Sea, expected production during 2015-2050 Million boe Troll Area, NO Grane Area, NO Tampen Area, NO Ekofisk Area, NO 1 new platform (find) 2 new platform (YTF) 3 new platforms (finds) 5 new platforms (YTF) Oseberg Area, NO Norwegian Sea: A large share of the open acreage resources expected to lie within reach to existing facilities Sleipner Area, NO Gjoa Area, NO Norwegian Sea, expected production during 2015-2050 Million boe Frigg Area, NO Hild Area, NO Aasgard Area, NO Ula Area, NO Yme Area, NO Ormen Lange Area, NO Rogaland, NO Agat Area, NO Norne Area, NO Barents Sea: Open Acreage Luva Area, NO 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 7 000 Barents Sea, expected production during 2015-2050 Million boe Draugen Area, NO 16 Vøring Area, NO Snohvit Area, Producing NO Under development Discovery More Area, NO Undiscovered Lopparyggen East Area, NO Open acreage 0 500 1 Goliat 000 1 Area, 500 2 NO 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 19 Bjornoya West Area, NO Producing Fugloybanken Area, NO Discovery Undiscovered Open Acreage 0 1 000 2 000 3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000 22 North Sea: Undiscovered open acreage resources expected developed through existing infrastructure No new facilities Na Norwegian Sea: Undiscovered open acreage resources expected to yield two No new production facilities Na facilities Viking Graben Offshore, NO No new facilities Na #1 ~200 kboe/d 12 new platform (find) 0 new platform (YTF) 17 More Basin Offshore, NO Barents Sea: Undiscovered open acreage resources expected to yield five new production facilities Trondelag Platform No new Na No new Offshore, NO facilities Na facilities 0 100 200 300 400 500 Voring Marginal Hogda Offshore, NO Bjarmeland Offshore, NO Finnmark Platform Offshore, NO 0 400 800 1 200 ~1700 No new facilities Na ~50-70 #1 kboe/d No new facilities Na #2 #1 ~400-500 kboe/d (total for the two facilities) ~150 Kboe/d Hammerfest basin Offshore, NO #1 ~150 Kboe/d 20 Bjornoya Basin Offshore, NO #1 ~100 kboe/d Central Barents Arch Offshore, NO No new facilities Na Loppa High Offshore, NO No new facilities Na Other No new facilities Na 23 0 400 800 ~1700 19
Example: Additonal resources from increased tie-back from 65 km to 100 km - YTF Breakdown of undiscovered subsea tie-back resources on the NCS Billion boe 12 3,1 2,3 3,1 6,9 1,6 3,8 2,2 Undiscovered subsea tieback resources North Sea Norwegian Sea Barents Sea Gas Oil < 65 km > 65 km 20
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