Socio-Technical Energy Scenarios Research Field A: Technical-Societal Development Examples of methods and results at different spatial scales

Socio-Technical Energy Scenarios Research Field A: Technical-Societal Development Examples of methods and results at different spatial scales ENERGY-TRANS Final Conference Berlin, 14.-15.03.2016 Yvonne Scholz, Jens Buchgeister, Thomas Pregger, Tobias Naegler, Stefan Vögele, Wolfgang Weimer-Jehle

Something one must know about the scenario designing engineer Der Optimist denkt, das Glas ist halb voll. Der Pessimist glaubt, es ist halb leer. Der Ingenieur sagt, dass das Glas doppelt so groß ist, wie es sein müsste. Was nicht passt, wird passend gemacht! Dem Ingenieur ist nichts zu schwör! To the optimist, the glass is half full. To the pessimist, the glass is half empty. To the engineer, the glass is twice as big as it needs to be. What does not fit, is made to fit! Nothing to fear for an engineer! Engineers will most of the time try and find technical solutions for everything. They need to be encouraged to take into account societal aspects in technical system design! 2

Socio-technical energy scenarios Examples of application at different spatial scales (A1) Cross-cutting futures : from global to sectoral view (A4) Socio-technical energy scenarios for Europe (A2) Socio-technical scenarios on national scale: Germany (A3) Regional energy transition modelling: South West Thuringia 3

Cross-cutting futures (A1) From level-specific futures to storylines and to quantitative sector-specific scenarios Source: Vögele et al. (2016) 5

Cross-cutting futures (A1) Coupling of influencing factors on different levels Factors on Global level Factors on National level Factors on Sectoral level Oil price Oil price Oil price Innovation dynamics Innovation dynamics Innovation dynamics CO 2 -reduction policy EU CO 2 -reduction policy EU Willingness to invest Willingness to invest Energy resources: scarcity Resource scarcity Climate change/energy policy Climate change/energy policy Growth of GDP Growth of GDP Population Population Expansion of electricity grid Expansion of electricity grid Regional level of diversification Regional level of diversification 6

Cross-cutting futures (A1) Storylines and quantitative sectoral aspects Scenario Trend Scenario Transformation Future used as frame (Future Black ) (Future Dark Green ) Growth of GDP (global) 3.5 %/year 3.5 %/year Growth of GDP (Germany) 1.0 %/year 1.0 %/year Oil price 125$/bbl 175$/bbl Population 79.0 million 79.0 million CO 2 -reduction policy EU -30 % -40 % Climate change/energy policy (national) -40 %* -60 %* Innovation dynamics 1.0 %/year 2.0 %/year Fuel prices 1.5 %/year 3.0 %/year Use of Renewables 30 % 50 % Energy performance of buildings 140 kwh/(m 2 a) 100 kwh/(m 2 a) Rental charge/price of buildings and flats 1.5 %/year 2.5 %/year 2.500 PJ 2.000 1.500 1.000 500 0 Development of final energy consumption for space heating and hot water Trend Transformation Trend Transformation Trend 2010 2020 2030 Transformation 7

Socio-technical energy scenarios for Europe (A4) Motivation European energy transition scenarios required for analysing effects on the German energy transition (power transmission, storage demand, power plant utilization) Compliance with societal norms Temporal, spatial and technological complexity Traditional scenario analysis using heuristics and intuition + - Scenario analysis using a specialised energy system model - + Combination of advantages and disadvantages!? Replacing intuition by context scenarios Coupling context descriptors and REMix energy system model parameters Consistent choice and quantification of base scenario, variable and independent parameters Consistent socio-technical scenarios 9

Socio-technical energy scenarios for Europe (A4) Base and variable model parameters Base parameters: represent descriptors with high socio-economic-political influence - Choice of descriptor futures according to the research question - Check in A2-context scenarios: is the combination of descriptor futures consistent? - Parameter quantification on the basis of descriptor futures and literature values RE-Shares high Adapted grid extension EU Renaissance Roadmap 2050 2020: 41,3% 2030: 51,2% 2050: 59,1% Ten Year Network Development Plan + Free Optimization from 2030 on Firm Capacity covered within Europe Variable parameters: high influence on the technical power system sensitivity analyses a) CO 2 -emission certificate prices b) fuel prices c) power demand 10

Socio-technical energy scenarios for Europe (A4) Sensitivity analyses Variable parameters and input data: Demand CO 2 certificate prices Fuel prices Results: - CO 2 certificate prices: only medium to high values according to context scenarios low influence on results - Fuel prices influence mainly the structure of power generation capacities - Power demand influences mainly the amount of capacity and system costs 11

Integrated scenario building on national scale (A2) Main objectives Analysing interrelationships between societal drivers and technological-structural development pathways required for the transformation of the energy system Constructing hybrid energy scenarios, which combine quantitative energy scenarios including infrastructural needs and consistent qualitative societal context scenarios Targets Premises Technologies Context scenario development - Data collection and evaluation - CIB-based construction of societal storylines - Quantification of storylines (Energy) Model based Analysis Identification of future infrastructure needs Markets Trends Existing infrastructures Integrated (hybrid) scenario building Consistent societal context scenarios Infrastructure needs (storages, grids...) Conclusions about pathways, risks & opportunities 13

Integrated scenario building on national scale (A2) Constructing context scenarios about the societal context of the Energiewende in Germany Data collection and evaluation Expert survey (n=28). 39 scenario factors ( descriptors ) identified in the fields of: International (e.g. European integration) Politics (e.g. planning legislation) Economy (e.g. GDP growth) Society (e.g. energy technology acceptance) Culture (e.g. value shift). Energy (e.g. energy efficiency in industry) 2-4 alternative futures assigned to each descriptor. Expert interviews (n=67, t=2h) about descriptor interdependences: 501 cross-impact statements => Qualitative impact network. Evaluating the impact network using CIB: 182 consistent scenarios out of 10 14 configurations. Example of a cross-impact statement 501 CI statements CIB evaluation 182 scenarios 14

Integrated scenario building on national scale (A2) The year 2050: Relating societal futures and energy futures in Germany Mapping societal futures using CIB + Correspondence Analysis Quantifying CO 2 -emissions of societal futures using the DLR energy model Topic (extracted (39 topics) out of 39 topics) : Assigned future... B. EU integration : B2 Nobody Cares... D. GDP growth : D3 Strong development H. Transnational trade flows : H3 Global Germany... J. Infrastructure expansion power lines : J3 Strongly delayed expansion K. Renewable electricity expansion : K1 Weak expansion... N. Energy policy stability : N1 Decreasing policy stability O. Energy control instruments : O1 Regulatory instruments... X. People's attitude to 'Energiewende : X3 Negative attitude Y. Value orientation : Y1 Materialism + performance... e. Efficiency trend - Industry : e2 Strong efficiency trend h. New car concepts and infrastructure : h1 Low investments Stagnation and Market yield moderate to high emissions Mixtures of Stagnation and Market yield very high emissions Value Shift yields moderate to low emissions Very low emissions in weak societies under high transformative pressure balanced societies 15

Integrated scenario building on national scale (A2) The energy system 2050: results for final energy demand & emissions: 3 examples of consistent scenarios with different societal pathways Final energy consumption (FEC) in PJ per year and CO 2 emissions in Mio t per year in Germany 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Market 2012 2050 2012 2050 FEC residential (PJ/a) FEC industry (PJ/a) FEC services & commerce (PJ/a) FEC transport (PJ/a) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Market CO2 emissions (Mt/a) The global market paradigm drives liberalization also in Germany. Materialism fosters an indifferent attitude towards the Energiewende. A strong economic development makes people ready to accept some burdens of the transition, however. 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Stagnation 2012 2050 2012 2050 FEC residential (PJ/a) FEC industry (PJ/a) FEC services & commerce (PJ/a) FEC transport (PJ/a) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Stagnation CO2 emissions (Mt/a) Strong international conflicts, global fragmentation and high oil prices should motivate the society to transform. However, the pressure paralyses the country and makes it impossible for the society to take up the challenge. A weak economic development limits efficiency improvements and RE expansion. 10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 The Power of the Center 2012 2050 2012 2050 FEC residential (PJ/a) FEC industry (PJ/a) FEC services & commerce (PJ/a) FEC transport (PJ/a) 1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 The Power CO2 emissions of the (Mt/a) Center EU Renaissance promotes harmonized energy policies as well as economy. Moderate economic growth is sufficient for a neutral public attitude towards the Energiewende and high investments in efficiency and RE technologies. In addition, the emission effect of a strong economic development is avoided. (compare with Market ) 16

Regional energy transition modelling (A3) Structure of different socio-technical energy scenarios as framework for regional modelling and simulation A1 Cross-cutting futures A2 Integrated Scenarios Other possible developments German Energiewende works on national level Grey World Green World Convergence Confrontation (Inter)national Developments = Context Scenarios provided by A1 & A2 framework for A3 Urban Region (Berlin) Rural Region (SW Th) A3 Regional Modelling 1 2 3 1 2 3 * Vögele S. (2012): Entwicklung der Rahmenbedingungen für neue Energietechnologien. STE Research Report 4/2012. Hansen P., Pannaye C., Vögele S.: The Future(s) of the Energy Consumption of Private Households in Germany - A Multilevel Cross- Impact Analysis. STE Research Report 4/2013. 18

Regional energy transition modelling (A3) CONCEPT: Socio-technical scenarios 2050, South West Thuringia: Factors GREEN WORLD (Technology Potentials) Population development Economic development Regional political structure Wind energy Pessimistic Neutral Optimistic THE ENERGY DRIVERS Pessimistic Neutral Optimistic Cooperative THE POLITICAL Parallel WEATHER Weak Strong Biomass production for energetic use Solar energy District heating Weak Weak Weak Strong ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE Strong Strong Building retrofit Social infrastructure None Low High Insufficient INFRASTRUCTURAL CONDITIONS Abundant 19

Regional energy transition modelling (A3) CIB analysis results: Context scenarios South West Thuringia 2050 Scenario No. 1 Scenario No. 2 Scenario No. 3 Scenario No. 4 Scenario No. 5 Scenario No. 6 Population development Economic development Regional political structure Pessimistic Neutral Optimistic Pessimistic Neutral Optimistic Cooperative Parallel Cooperative Wind energy Strong Weak Strong Biomass cultivation for energetic use Strong Weak Strong Weak Strong Solar energy Weak Strong District heating Strong Weak Strong Building retrofit None High Social infrastructure Insufficient Abundant 20

Regional energy transition modelling (A3) Coupling societal context scenarios and model-based regional energy scenarios Planning legislation Demographic development Reg. Energy model Political focus Regional Context scenarios Oil price Technology development Economy Regional Sociotechnical scenario Governance styles Values shifts Scen II Scen III... and more Scen I Reg. Energy scenarios 21

Summary and Outlook Advancements in Knowledge and Methodology Increased knowledge: - Socio-technical system and interdependencies - Considering a range of uncertainties Improved energy scenario analysis: - Correctness: Context scenarios can guide the choice of relevant input assumptions - Consistency : Testing model behaviour using stories, not single data - Transparency: Implicit input assumptions are made explicit Outlook: further research required - Descriptor choice and definition - Quantitative descriptors or transparent rules for quantification - Constructing normative technical scenarios from explorative context scenarios is a challenge! 22