OECD Science, Technology and Industry Outlook 2012 Directorate for Science Technology and Industry Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry Country Studies and Outlook Division (DSTI/CSO)
What s new in the field of STI policy? + 20 year tradition Review key Science, Technology and Innovation (STI) trends Biennial event for the STI policy community and analysts around latest policy information and indicators OECD Flagship publication 2
The four components of the STI Outlook 2012 CRISIS AND OUTLOOK COUNTRY PROFILES SOCIAL AND GLOBAL CHALLENGES POLICY PROFILES 3
National innovation performance and major recent national STI policy developments COUNTRY PROFILES 4
CRISIS AND OUTLOOK 5
Innovation in the crisis and beyond 1. The economic crisis that started in 2008 has negatively affected business innovation and R&D in all countries. 2. The crisis and the recovery have been uneven across countries, industries and categories of firms. 3. Some have featured better: countries in Asia, including Korea and China; large multinational firms in high tech industries. 4. VC, start ups and SMEs have been hit the hardest, and have not recovered yet (entrepreneurship still low). 5. The crisis has revealed and amplified weaknesses (and strengths) which pre-existed, across countries, sectors and firms. 6
Business enterprise R&D has partially recovered after the 2008-09 09 shock 10.0 BERD funded by business, yearly growth rate (%) Collapse of Lehman Brothers 5.0 0.0 Japan United States Total OECD -5.0 EU-15-10.0-15.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: OECD. 7
A deep drop followed by a fragile recovery Patent Filings are hit by the crisis PCT Filings; 5 months moving average; yearly growth rates (%) 15 US EU World 10 5 0-5 -10 Collapse of Lehman Brothers -15 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: WIPO. 8
Large firms have recovered quickly Growth rates in R&D investments and sales of top EU and US corporate R&D investors, 2008-10 (%) Source: EU (2011), EU industrial R&D investments Scoreboard. 9
Large medium-tech manufacturers (e.g. automobile) have been hit strongly Sales, R&D and employment growth for firms in high-, medium-high and low-technology industries, i 2008-09 and 2009-10 (%) 2008-09 2009-10 Companies in high-tech industries (N. 475) Companies in in medium tech industries i Companies in inlow low tech industries (N. 359) (N. 103) % 15 Sales R&D Employment Sales R&D Employment Sales R&D Employment 10 9.9 9.4 5 0-5 -3.8 38 0.6 5.5 4.5 39 3.9 4.4 4.3 1.5 3.0 38 3.8-0.6-1.4-2.9 5.6-10 -6.5-15 -20-16.3 Source: OECD STI Outlook 2012 based on EU (2011), EU industrial R&D investments Scoreboard. 10
Business dynamics: More destruction ti than creation Creation of new businesses Bankruptcies 150 140 Australia Finland Germany Denmark United States Collapse of Lehman Brothers 150 140 Australia Japan Finland Germany Netherlands Collapse of Lehman Brothers 130 130 120 120 110 110 100 100 90 90 80 70 60 50 80 70 60 50 Source: OECD STI Outlook 2012 based on OECD (2012), Entrepreneurship at a Glance. 11
Venture Capital investment has partially recovered in the US 9 8 Sum of deal value, quarterly amount, billion USD Collapse of Lehman Brothers 7 6 5 4 3 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Extracted from the OECD STI Outlook 2012 based on Venture One, Money Tree. 12
Certain countries have better resisted the crisis i than others: China, Korea 35.0 Business funded R&D, yearly growth rate (%) 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 Korea Total OECD China 5.0 0.0-5.0-10.0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: OECD, Main Science and Technology Indicators (MSTI) Database, June 2012. 13
Innovation in the crisis and beyond Policy responses: - Recovery plans (2009) were heavily loaded in S&T and innovation related expenses - Austerity is now gaining g in most countries and S&T budgets are also under pressure but recognition of the central role of innovation for engineering a sustainable recovery. - Foreseeable growth perspectives and the financial situation of most governments indicate that this downward pressure is likely to be maintained in the coming gyears. 14
Innovating to address global challenges: the role of STI policy SOCIAL AND GLOBAL CHALLENGES 15
SOCIAL AND GLOBAL CHALLENGES 16
Innovating for Social and Global Challenges Green innovation High on the agenda of most OECD governments. Requires aligning the objectives of the various stakeholders and linking supply- and demand-side d policies i Ageing society Innovation can help the elderly remain healthy, autonomous and active (e.g. biomedicine, robotics, and IT) Still, a risk for long-term innovation capacity Thus the need for life-long learning and international cooperation Innovation for development Innovation is not a preserve of the rich, it s an engine for economic and social development (e.g. health, education, etc.) Types of innovation i include tech, non-tech and social innovationi => New market and learning opportunities!
National innovation performance and major recent national STI policy developments COUNTRY PROFILES 18
COUNTRY PROFILES 19
Japan STI system is dominated by large corporate groups and one of the most R&D intensive in the OECD Benchmarking countries competences and capacity to innovate Normalised index of performance (Median=100), 2011 Source: OECD STI Outlook 2012. 20
Benchmarking countries interactions and human resources for innovation Source: OECD STI Outlook 2012. 21
Public research is strongly oriented towards Looking applied at research the innovation and experimental policy mix Research by universities development iti and public labs Overview of the innovation policy mix : balance between actors, orientation and funding mechanisms (%) Source: OECD STI Outlook 2012. 22
Although Looking declining, at the innovation R&D tax incentives policy mix are the Public main support channel to business of public R&D funding and to innovation firms Overview of the innovation policy mix : balance between sectors and funding mechanisms (%) Source: OECD STI Outlook 2012. 23
Hot issues in Japan The three or four most topical issues discussed in STI policy making circles in the country Source: OECD STI Outlook 2012. 24
Major national STI policy developments Overall STI strategy Innovation policy governance Recent changes in STI expenditures Science base Green innovation New challenges Recent shifts in national innovation policy Competences and capacity to innovate Business R&D and innovation Public-sector innovation Entrepreneurship Culture for innovation HR policies Human resources for innovation Interactions ICT infrastructures Education Globalisation Commercialisation Open science IPRs Clusters and regions 25
Some recent examples for Japan New Growth Strategy (2010) Innovation policy governance S&T budgets preserved certain lines enlarged Increased funding for basic research Comprehensive Green Growth Strategy New challenges Recent shifts in national innovation policy Competences and capacity to innovate Increased direct funding to firms Public-sector innovation Entrepreneurship Culture for innovation Public investments in lifelong learning Education Human resources for innovation Tax incentives to attract FDI Priority on commercialisation Interactions New patent licensing ICT infrastructures Empowerment of regions for reconstruction and coownership system 26
And 42 more countries! 27
Main common trends in national STI policy POLICY PROFILES 28
POLICY PROFILES 29
24 profiles for multiple readers covering rationale, main aspects and new policy trends Evaluation Technologies for natural catastrophes National STI strategy Innovation policy governance Governance structure and arrangements Science base Innovation policy mix Financingi Green innovation Emerging technologies New challenges Recent shifts in national innovation policy Competences and capacity to innovate Business R&D and innovation Public-sector innovation Tax incentives Services and non-tech. Demand-side Entrepreneurship Culture for innovation HR policies Human resources for innovation Interactions ICT infrastructures Education Globalisation Open science Clusters and regions Commercialisation IP markets IPRs Patent policies 30
The changing g context of innovation policies The economic crisis is having major effects on innovation policies: - New constraints on policies (STI budgets), - Reshuffling priorities (competitiveness, growth and job creation at the top) - Higher requirements for efficiency and effectiveness (changing the policy mix) Combined with other trends and factors: new challenges, new technology (IT), globalisation. => Strengthened priority given by governments to innovation and STI policy 31
The changing innovation policy mix Tax incentives: more countries, ti broader use Targeted policies: clusters, smart specialisation, new industrial policies Demand-side policies (procurement, standards): still emerging (green) Entrepreneurship policies: new firms seen as major vehicles of innovation; tendency to extending policy attention from the creation to the expansion stage. Commercialisation of public sector research: more integrated. t 32
Tax incentives are the main channel of public support to business R&D in some countries Direct funding of business R&D and R&D tax incentives, 2010 As a percentage of GDP, 2010 Source: OECD STI Outlook 2012 based on OECD MSTI database, June 2012, OECD R&D tax incentives surveys 2010 and 2011, OECD STI Scoreboard 2011 and national sources. 33
Combined direct and indirect funding has increased in relative terms since 2005 Direct funding of business R&D and R&D tax incentives, 2010 As a percentage of GDP, 2010 Source: OECD STI Outlook 2012 based on OECD MSTI database, June 2012, OECD R&D tax incentives surveys 2010 and 2011, OECD STI Scoreboard 2011 and national sources. 34
The changing innovation policy mix: generic vs. targeted t instruments t Changing balance based on country self-assessment Targeted dinstruments towards specific populations (e.g. SMEs, new-technology-based firms, sectors etc.) 35 Source: OECD STI Outlook 2012 based on country responses to the OECD STI Outlook policy questionnaire 2012.
Strengthening the governance of finnovation policies i Innovation policies are more complex and diverse (involve more actors, instruments, objectives), Budgets are more constrained Need to strengthen governance. National innovation strategies Agencification Regionalisation Monitoring and evaluation 36
National Innovation Strategies Common themes across countries: 1. Oriented towards competitiveness (job creation) 2. and grand challenges (environment, energy, food etc.) 3. Broadening from supply to supply & demand d policies i 4. Selective in terms of S&T areas to invest in (usually around ICT, bio, nano) 5. Connected to downstream policies (promoting sales capacity etc.): getting gclose to industrial policies? 37
Target R&D performance in innovation strategies: t in all countries GERD and R&D spending targets, as a percentage of GDP (%) Source: OECD STI Outlook 2012 based on country responses to the OECD STI Outlook 2012 policy questionnaire and OECD MSTI database, June 2012. 38
For more information www.oecd.org/sti/outlook dominique.guellec@oecd.org sandrine.kergroach@oecd.org 39