INFORMATION, ENTROPX AND PROGRESS A NEW EVOLUTIONARY PARADIGM Robert U. Ayres The European Institute of Business Administration Fontainebleau, France AIP PFjgSS American Institute of Physics New York
Contents Foreword by R. Stephen Berry Preface Introduction: Evolution as Accumulation of Useful Information.. ix xi xiii Chapter 1: Concepts, Definitions, and Analogies 1 1.1. Irreversibility and Equilibrium in Mechanics and Thermodynamics 1 1.2. Entropy and the Second Law of Thermodynamics 4 1.3. Irreversibility in Economics 6 1.4. Thermodynamic Constraints in Economics 8 1.5. Equilibrium, Steady State, and Chaos 9 1.6. Order, Structure, and Organization 11 1.7. Diversity and Complexity 13 1.8. Biological Change: Development versus Evolution 15 1.9. Ecosystem, Biosphere, and Gaia 17 1.10. Myopia vs. Presbyopia; Selfishness vs. Altruism 20 References 23 Chapter 2: Information and Thermodynamics 27 2.1. Theoretical Framework: What Is Information? 27 2.2. Joint and Conditional Probabilities 31 2.3. Information and Entropy 35 2.4. Thermodynamic Information 37 2.5. Survival-Relevant Information 42 2.6. Summary 44 References 48 v
vi / CONTENTS Chapter 3: Physical Evolution: From the Universe to the Earth 51 3.1. The Evolution of Matter 51 3.2. From the First Picosecond to the Next Three Minutes 54 3.3. From 3 Minutes to 1 Million Years 56 3.4. Since the First Million Years 58 3.5. Physical Evolution: Diversity, Complexity and Stability 64 3.6. Physical Evolution and Information 66 References 71 Chapter 4: Geological and Biochemical Evolution 73 4.1. Geological Evolution of the Earth 73 4.2. Chemical Precursors to Organic Synthesis 81 4.3. Digression: Other Unsolved Mysteries 87 4.4. Self-Organization at the Chemical Level 89 4.5. Self-Replication 90 4.6. Genetic Reproduction as an Information Process 93 References 98 Chapter 5: Biological Evolution 101 5.1. Primitive Organisms 101 5.2. The Invention of Sexual Reproduction 104 5.3. Evolutionary Mechanisms and Discontinuities 106 5.4. Information and the Evolutionary Mechanism 109 5.5. The Direction of Phylogenic Evolution 115 5.6. A Digression on the Evolution of Consciousness 117 5.7. Summary 119 References 122 Chapter 6: Evolution in Human Social Systems 124 6.1. The Evolution of Cooperative Behavior 124 6.2. Games and Rational Choice in Social Systems 126 6.3. Static Equilibrium in Economics: The Free Market 131 6.4. Quasi-Static (Homothetic) Growth in Economics 135 6.5. Ontological Theories of Development 138 References 147 Chapter 7: Evolution in Economic Systems 151 7.1. Evolution and Growth 151
CONTENTS / VÜ 7.2. The Problem of Economic Growth Revisited 152 7.3. Schumpeter's Contribution: Radical Innovation 155 7.4. Post-Schumpeterian Evolutionary Theories 156 7.5. "Technological Breakthroughs" and Non-linear Dynamics... 159 7.6. Progress Functions (with K. Martinas) 163 7.6a. Micro-Foundations 165 7.6b. A Progress-Function for Firms 169 7.6c. Interpretation 173 7.6d. Concluding Remarks 174 References 180 Chapter 8: The Economy as a Self-Organizing Information- Processing System 186 8.1. The Analogy with Living Systems 186 8.2. The Economy as an Information-Transformation System 190 8.3. Information Transformation and Value Added 193 8.4. The Role of Labor 196 8.5. The Role of Capital 197 8.6. The Role of Money 200 8.7. The Role of Technology 203 8.8. The Role of Structure and Organization 207 References 213 Chapter 9: Information Added by Materials Processing 215 9.1. Introduction 215 9.2. Energy Conversion 216 9.3. Cost of Refining 220 9.4. Thermodynamic Analysis of Alternative Processes 222 References 224 Chapter 10: Morphological Information 225 10.1. Surface Information: General Considerations 225 10.2. Morphological Information Embodied in Manufactured Shapes 227 10.3. Information of Orientation and Assembly 235 10.4. The Relative Prices of Metabolic and Morphological Information 238 10.5. The Principle of Minimum Morphological Information 244 References 247
viü / CONTENTS Chapter 11: Labor as an Information Process 249 11.1. Ergonomie Background: The Worker as Information Processor 249 11.2. Examples: Theory and Experiment 252 11.3. Output of a Worker: Time and Motion 254 11.4. Output of a Worker: Time and Information 256 11.5. Output of a Worker: Motion and Information 259 11.6. The Error/Defect Problem 261 11.7. Errors and Information Overload 263 11.8. Optimum Work Pace 265 11.9. Value of Information Added by Labor 268 References 270 Chapter 12: Evolution, Economics, and Environmental Imperatives 273 12.1. Recapitulation: Ideas of Equilibrium in Economics 273 12.2. Brownian Motion or Gravitational Attraction? 276 12.3. The Economic System and the Physical Environment 278 12.4. Technological and Economic Evolution in Long-Term Perspective 282 12.5. Concluding Thoughts and Speculations 286 References 290 Afterword by Allen V. Kneese 293 Index 296