Scenarios depicting the carbon-intensity of UK lifestyles through to 2030 Scott Milne RESOLVE Research Group on Lifestyles Values and Environment University of Surrey, UK s.milne@surrey.ac.uk
Overview Understanding Lifestyles What are Scenarios? Epistemological Contribution of Scenarios Critique of Low Carbon Energy Scenarios Outline of Methodology 2 s.milne@surrey.ac.uk
What constitutes a lifestyle? Lifestyles Lifestyles is a way we live our lives that allows us to fulfil our needs and aspirations. They serve as social conversations, in which people signal their social position and psychological aspirations to others. Since many of the signals are mediated by goods, lifestyles are closely linked to material and resource flows in the society. [emphasis mine] UNEP, 2007. 3 s.milne@surrey.ac.uk
Lifestyles As patterns of consumption replace employment type as the primary social marker, the goods and services that individuals and households consume become the most important elements in demonstrating social class, wealth and identity. They become the means by which individuals express their values and their desires as well as the way individuals are judged by others Bedford, T., Jones, P. & Walker, H., 2004. Consumption plays a central role 4 s.milne@surrey.ac.uk
Lifestyles Consumption Housing Nutrition Transport Social Choices Financial Investments Leisure Activities Holidays Cleaning Personal Hygiene Clothing Domestic Durables Domestic Appliances Bedford et al 2004. Lorek, S. & Spangenberg, J.H., 2001. 5 s.milne@surrey.ac.uk
Lifestyles Housing Nutrition Transport How we run our homes How we get around The food we eat Holiday Travel 6 s.milne@surrey.ac.uk
External Factors Social Psychological Family and friends Emotions & desires Education Values & attitudes Cultural differences Identity construction Fashion and tastes Needs & wants Technological Innovation Infrastructure Product development At home Getting around What we eat Getting away Political Growth model Information provision Social equality & rights Environmental demands Economic Growth & competition Environmental Productivity & income Climate change Price fluctuations Resource scarcity Marketing & advertising Waste management Amenity 7 s.milne@surrey.ac.uk
Scenarios are... narratives describing plausible alternative futures. 8 s.milne@surrey.ac.uk
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Epistemic Contribution of Scenarios Nassim Nicholas Taleb The Black Swan "My major hobby is teasing people who take themselves & the quality of their knowledge too seriously & those who don t have the courage to sometimes say: I don t know..." Paul Dragos Aligica: When knowledge about events, actors and phenomena is combined using theories, laws or common and personal knowledge about regularities and linkages, the new configuration emerging out of the mental exercise is a contribution to the cognitive stock of the actor involved in the exercise. Aligica, P.D., 2005. 13 s.milne@surrey.ac.uk
Critique of Low Carbon Energy Scenarios Review and Analysis of UK and International Low Carbon Energy Scenarios, N. Hughes, J. Mers, N. Strachan Review of 21 scenario studies Concluded that scenarios could benefit from: Greater consideration for co-evolution of social, technical, economic systems etc Identifying developments with clear reference to actors, their motivations and the networks between them 14 s.milne@surrey.ac.uk
Methodology: Scaffolding Environmental Scanning - capture external factors Internal RESOLVE interviews Shortlist of external factors RESOLVE Scenario Panel meetings Selection of key uncertainties to form scenario axes A B C D 15 s.milne@surrey.ac.uk
Methodology: Construction Series of external expert interviews Consult on the development of key trends under each scenario RESOLVE Scenario Panel meetings Consolidation of expert opinion and desk research to build draft scenario narratives Preparation of Stakeholder Workshops Members of public, school pupils/students, policy and decision makers from government/business Explore lifestyle choices/opportunities within each scenario, identifying preferences 16 s.milne@surrey.ac.uk
Methodology: Decoration & Furnishing Refinement of scenario narratives Development of 'personas' Technique from Human-Computer Interaction Design Fictional people representative of broad characteristics Select say four 'lifestyle types' and develop consumption profile (for the present) Tell the story of how these people react to and shape the external factors in each scenario through lifestyle change (or lack of it) 17 s.milne@surrey.ac.uk
Thesis and Scenario Booklet 18 s.milne@surrey.ac.uk
References UNEP, 2007. Concept Paper for the Task Force on Sustainable Lifestyles Bedford, T., Jones, P. & Walker, H., 2004. Every little bit helps: Overcoming the challenges to researching, promoting and implementing sustainable lifestyles, Lorek, S. & Spangenberg, J.H., 2001. Indicators for environmentally sustainable household consumption. International Journal of Sustainable Development, 4(1), 101-120. Sustainable Consumption Roundtable, I Will If You Will: Towards sustainable consumption, 2006. Aligica, P.D., 2005. Scenarios and the growth of knowledge: Notes on the epistemic element in scenario building. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 72(7), 815-824. Review and Analysis of UK and International Low Carbon Energy Scenarios, N. Hughes, J. Mers, N. Strachan, UKERC/WP/ESM/2009/012 19 s.milne@surrey.ac.uk