L impatto delle tecnologie web sull innovazione Milan October 3 rd, 2013
Agenda 1 2 The Law of Accelerating Returns Disruptive Trends Slide 2
Agenda 1. The Law of Accelerating Returns 2. Disruptive Trends
Technology Capacity The Law of Accelerating Returns The Law of Accelerating Returns Square Number Total grains so far 1 1 2 3 3 7 4 15 n (2^n)-1 64 (2^64)-1 Linear VS Exponential Growth 160 Linear Trend 140 Exponential Trend 120 100 80 60 40 First half of board: 100,00 kg of rice Entire board: 461,168,602,000 tons A heap larger than Mount Everest 20 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Time Slide 4
Logaritmic Plot Linear Plot The Law of Accelerating Returns Technology Evolution 4,E+09 Life 1,E+10 Eukaryotic cells, Multicellular Organisms Cambrian Explosion (body plans) 1,E+09 Reptiles Primates Class 1,E+08 Superfamily Hominodae Mammalia Genus Homo, Homo Erectus, specialized stone 1,E+07 Family Hominidae tools Spoken Language 1,E+06 Humans Ancestors walk upright Homo Sapiens Homo Sapiens Sapiens 1,E+05 Art, Early Cities Agriculture 1,E+04 City-States Writing, Wheel 1,E+03 Industrial Revolution Printing, Experimental Method Computer Telephone, Electricity, Radio 1,E+02 Personal Computer 1,E+01 1,E+09 1,E+08 1,E+07 1,E+06 1,E+05 1,E+04 1,E+03 1,E+02 1,E+01 First half of board: 100,00 kg of rice Entire board: 461,168,602,000 tons A heap larger than Mount Everest 1,E+10 Life 3,E+09 1,E+10 Eukaryotic cells, Multicellular Organisms Reptiles 1,E+09 Cambrian Explosion (body plans) Primates Class Mammalia 1,E+08 Superfamily Hominodae 1,E+07 Family Hominidae Humans Ancestors walk upright 1,E+06 Genus Homo, Homo Erectus, Specialized stone tools Spoken Language Homo Sapiens 1,E+05 Homo Sapiens Sapiens Art, Early Cities 1,E+04 Agriculture Writing, Wheel City-States 1,E+03 Printing, Experimental Method Industrial Revolution 1,E+02 Telephone, Electricity, Radio Computer Personal Computer 1,E+01 2,E+09 1,E+09 1,E+01 Time before present (years) Time before present (years) Slide 5 Time to next event (years) Time to next event (years)
Number of Transistors The Law of Accelerating Returns Exponential Growth: Moore s Law The number of transistors on integrated circuits doubles approximately every two years 100.000.000 10.000.000 1.000.000 100.000 8086 Pentium IV Pentium III Pentium II Pentium 386 288 486 The overall rate of technological progress is currently doubling (approximately) every decade 10.000 8080 8008 4004 1.000 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 So, the technological progress in the twenty-first century will be equivalent to what would require (in the linear view) on the order of 200 centuries Slide 6
The Law of Accelerating Returns Internet Growth Slide 7
The Law of Accelerating Returns Reaching 50 Million Users Slide 8
Agenda 1. The Law of Accelerating Returns 2. Disruptive Trends
Disruptive Trends The new technology trends that are changing the ecosystem in which we operate Mobility gains prominence Social Media collaboration On demand computing Big data computing Internet of things Exponential adoption of Smartphone and Tablets is reshaping the way the Internet is consumed, and creating a new blend of digital and physical experiences. The increasing adoption of Social Media, at a personal and company level, is shifting people s social behavior to the online, digital world. Service Oriented architectures are blending with Cloud delivery models, for a new way to consume IT at a personal and company level. An increasing gap between the volume, variety and velocity at which information is produced and the ability to analyze it is giving rise to a new analytic approach. Small Integrated Circuits are everywhere, adding intelligence and connectivity to almost everything. Companies must leverage Technology trends to become agile, enable innovation, create operating efficiency, enter new markets, increase customer loyalty and gain ground against competitors. 10
Disruptive Trends The Third Industrial Revolution A Third Industrial Revolution is underway, characterized by the convergence of several technologies (e.g. software, material, robotics, web-based services, ) First Industrial Revolution Second Industrial Revolution Third Industrial Revolution 1750-1850 1870-1900 1980+ Britain USA Developed Countries Mechanization of Textile Industry Birth of the Factory Automation of Assembly in Automotive Industry Birth of the Mass Production Digitization of Manufacturing Birth of the Mass Customization Slide 11
Disruptive Trends The Intelligence Explosion A Long tiresome speech delivered by a frothy pie topping A garment worn by a child, perhaps aboard an operatic ship Wanted for a twelve-year crime spree of eating King Hrothgar s warriors; officer Beowulf has been assigned the case It can mean to develop gradually in the mind or to carry during pragnancy Slide 12
Disruptive Trends Technologies to replicate the Human Brain Slide 13
Disruptive Trends Robotics Robotics is going through an amazing time, and things should only get more exciting 900.000 800.000 700.000 600.000 500.000 400.000 300.000 200.000 100.000 - Sales Industrial Robots 5 year CAGR =11,2% 2010 2011 2012* 2013* 2014* 2015* Asia/Australia Europe America Slide 14
Disruptive Trends Robotics Millions of small and medium-sized firms will benefit from new materials, chaper robots and smarter software, while machine operators will become machine minders. In 2011, industrial robot sales again increased by 38% to 166,028 units, by far the highest level ever recorded for one year. The trend towards automation - interrupted by the crisis in 2009 - restarted already in 2010 and continued in 2011. In the near future we expect to see significant improvements in robotics, specifically in the following areas: 1. Swarm robotics 2. Co-robots (robot as co-workers) 3. Cloud robotics 4. Smart sensing 5. Mobile-based robot 6. Self-driving vehicles 7. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles 8. Bionics 1 8 2 3 4 5 6 7 Slide 15
Disruptive trends 3D Manufacturing Additive Manufacturing, applying 3D Printing to industrialized goods, will drive the Mass Customization making economic viable low-volume production and providing saving in material cost. Share of Money spent on 3D Printing/additive Manufacturing (%) 20% 100% 72% 28% 50% 50% 80% Image source: Wired.it, cnn.com 1990 2011 2016 2020 One-off Prototypes Finished Goods Slide 16
Disruptive trends 3D Manufacturing Print your own InMoov animatronic open source robot Gael Langevin, a French sculptor and model marker, has spent the better part of the last year designing and engineering his own animatronic robot called InMoov. And it's open source, so if you're feeling confident, you can try to build one yourself using a list of offthe-shelf electronics and parts he shares on 3D file sharing site Thingiverse. Considering that much smaller robot kits can cost upwards of two or three grand, it seems almost absurd that you can build two adult size robot arms, with individually-actuated fingers, for around US$900 dollars (excluding the cost of the 3D printer itself). You'll need to download and print parts for the left and right arm, with the head and neck still to come. Slide 17
Disruptive Trends Nanotechnology is already used to enhance some products. Increasingly, product engineering will begin at the nanoscale. Titanium Dioxide Virus build batteries A film of it only a few nanometres thick, is used to produce self-cleaning glass in buildings. Pilkington (a British company, was the first to launch selfcleaning glass using this technology in 2001. Viruses, which are a fairly common tool in genetic engineering, are now used to make batteries by making them interact or bind with materials they are interested in. Source: The Economist 10
Delivery drones Farmscrapers Smart networks Smart buildings Shopping Urban spaces Sensor networks The future life Robo-Taxi Living street lights Human network Source: BBC
Thinking for the future