Project BONUS ESABALT Economic and Non-Economic Feasibility Analysis dr Paweł Banaś Maritime University of Szczecin
Content Assumptions 1. Analysis of navigational systems and devices 2. Expected ESABALT impact on situational awareness 3. Economic and non-economic feasibility analysed domains: costs and benefits 4. ESABALT prototype verification 5. Economic and non-economic viability analysis 6. Risk analysis and management Summary
Assumptions System covering the Baltic Sea region System based on crowdsourcing Free of charge access to the system for end-users Involvement of authorities, commercial vessels, leisure boats and others Increasing number of users More users More information Increased situational awareness
1. Analysis of navigational systems and devices Number of analysed systems and devices: 16 systems and devices 21 projected systems Analysis of the devices and projects using survey with questions corresponding the assessment criteria: Innovation Feasibility Functionality/usability Availability Reliability Safety Security Credibility Mesurability/quantifiability
1. Analysis of navigational systems and devices Comparison of the systems and devices (existing and projected) based the assessment criteria
2. Expected ESABALT impact on situational awareness Common platform Crowdsourcing increased information sharing Increased number of users Aggregated information Improved safety of system users, especially non-professional
3. Economic and non-economic feasibility Analysed domains costs and benefits: Political Economic Social Technological ESABALT Safety and security issues
3. Economic and non-economic feasibility Political domain Benefits: mutual recognition of differences and needs of administrations and stockholders operating in the Baltic Sea Region, possible harmonization of maritime law in the region, increased safety of transport and international shipping in the region, transfer of technology, elaborated practices and solutions in the Baltic Sea Region to other regions in EU and farther like ASEAN. Costs: none direct costs, political cost could be associated with further isolation of regions and stakeholders which would not benefit from ESABALT system.
3. Economic and non-economic feasibility Economic domain Benefits: lower accidents costs (human, ship, cargo and environment) because of safety at sea improvement, lower operational costs (efficiency improvement) because of route optimisation. Costs: system software and hardware costs, infrastructure costs, maintenance costs, personal costs.
3. Economic and non-economic feasibility Social domain Benefits: the development of social networks, integration of involved communities and societies. Costs: lack of communication channels in social networks, misunderstanding of involved communities and societies.
3. Economic and non-economic feasibility Technological domain Benefits: crowdsourcing technology at sea, route optimization technology. Costs: communication costs negligible in case of use the Internet but high in case of satellite communication, maintenance costs of infrastructure, personal costs of operators.
3. Economic and non-economic feasibility Safety issue Elimination or limitation of human errors and thus to ensure the highest level of navigational safety: increase of situational awareness, widest range of 'intelligent' automation hints of solutions, human had to make only key decisions. Security issue ESABALT data communication solution must take into account same security aspects related to vessel communication and system connectivity. The transmission of information shall be encrypted due to security of transmitted information.
4. ESABALT prototype verification Two steps: 1. Verification of implemented requirements 2. Verification of implemented services
4. ESABALT prototype verification Two steps: 1. Verification of implemented requirements 2. Verification of implemented services List of 84 previously formulated system requirements Assignment of requirements into services Are all requirements mapped into system's services? No Yes Verification of implemented services
4. ESABALT prototype verification Two steps: 1. Verification of implemented requirements 2. Verification of implemented services Module No. Module name Tests results 1 System registration and log-in Not approved 2 Display vessel position and submit to ESABALT server Approved 3 Display vessel route and submit to ESABALT server Approved 4 Display position and information about nearby ships Approved 5 Display route of nearby ship(s) Partially approved 6 Report an unidentified vessel Not approved 7 Route optimization request to ESABALT server and submit the selected route Not approved 8 Make an update to vessel route and submit to ESABALT server Partially approved 9 Display situational awareness reports weather, sea ice, pollution etc. Approved 10 Report situational awareness sea ice, pollution, oil spill, violating ship etc. Approved 11 Report and display ship(s) violating maritime rules Not approved 12 Submit vessel radar tracks to ESABALT server Not approved 13 Submit messages/warnings/alarms to ESABALT server Approved 14 Display messages/warnings/alarms from ESABALT server Approved 15 Speed-reporting of emergency situations for pleasure craft Approved
4. ESABALT prototype verification Two steps: 1. Verification of implemented requirements 2. Verification of implemented services Conclusions: Basic services are implemented and approved Because of early stage of the system development, some services are not fully implemented and can't be fully approved All services should be implemented in next stages of system's development
5. ESABALT Economic and non-economic viability analysis Profitability analysis: estimation of system implementation costs (hardware, software, outsourced services), estimation of system operation costs benefits of using the system Operation costs: approximate virtual server operating costs: 8.000 USD yearly average transmission costs for end-user: 600 EUR yearly personnel costs (9 employees in each Baltic country): about 250.000 EUR yearly
5. ESABALT Economic and non-economic viability analysis Political: involvement of all Baltic Sea region maritime administrations, potentially strained international relations, problem of terrorism Economic: approximate virtual server operating costs: 8.000 USD yearly average transmission costs for end-user: 600 EUR yearly personnel costs (9 employees in each Baltic country): about 250.000 EUR yearly Social: expected 100 active users in first year of operation Technological: most of technologies needed to develop ESABALT already exist problem of data verification and transmission (safety and security) development of new functionalities main costs time needed to develop final version of ESABALT
6. Risk analysis and management The Formal Safety Assessment (FSA) methdology was used. Five steps of FSA (IMO): 1. Identification of hazards - a list of all relevant accident scenarios with potential causes and outcomes (what might going wrong?); 2. Assessment of risks - evaluation of risk factors (how bad and how likely?); 3. Risk control options - devising regulatory measures to control and reduce the identified risks (can matters be improved?); 4. Cost benefit assessment - determining cost effectiveness of each risk control option (what would it cost and how matters can be? ); 5. Recommendations for decision-making - information about the hazards, their associated risks and the cost effectiveness of alternative risk control options is provided (what actions should be taken?).
6. Risk analysis and management Hazards: Risk assessment: Risk control options: Assessment of costs and benefits: Recommendations: Threat resulting from: technology, human factor, organisation, tools, requirements, assessment (estimation) Treats in system development and implementation processes Treats in operation (exploitation) processes
6. Risk analysis and management Summary: The potential treats were identified The FSA analysis was performed to obtain risk control options The assessment of risk control options provided recommendations regarding prevention and counteractions of previously identified threats
Summary (1) Innovation facilitates crowdsourcing to collect, deliver, process and transmit safety related messages to stakeholders involved in maritime transport process. Feasibility will be on TRL 4 by March 2016. It is planned to bring the project to TRL 7 during the next 2 years. It is difficult to estimate the availability of ESABALT system because of very early stage, but there is expected that the system should meet existed and future IMO guidelines, in accordance with e-navigation strategy. The biggest challenge for ESABALT is reliability of crowdsourced data. Assumption that: only you know the weather in your position can lead to dangerous situations.
Summary (2) Technological domain ESABALT prototype verification Political domain challenges regarding international relations and terrorism Social domain advantages due to involving authorities, commercial vessels, leisure boats and others Economic domain challenges concerning: sources of financing system infrastructure maintenance costs, operational costs, personel costs. Safety and security challenges: data credibility data transmission security
Summary (3) Viability of ESABALT: low cost of system's management lower accidents costs (human, ship, cargo and environment) because of safety at sea improvement, lower operational costs (efficiency improvement) because of route optimisation. Risk management taking into account performed analyses of identified domains FSA methodology
Thank You for your attention dr. Paweł Banaś Maritime University of Szczecin, Poland p.banas@am.szczecin.pl