Designing The Future of Software

Transcription

1 Designing The Future of Software Alan Kay Viewpoints Research Institute Vanguard Los Angeles, Feb 24 nd, 2011

2 News can be told in a few minutes New = learning, longer & change News

3 van der Waals forces News: Behold! New: Fiat Lux!

4 A Vanguard Talk 45 Minutes! 45 Minutes!

5 Software Has Fallen Short Quality Bar 7 Quality Bar 6 Quality Bar 5 Quality Bar 4 Quality Bar 3 Quality Bar 2 Quality Bar 1 General Practice of 1970s Best of 1970s Best Practice of Today General Practice Today What is Needed Today

6 Tinkering Computer Software Engineering Yikes! Technology Mathematics Science

7 The Arts from the perspective of their Ultimate Critics People Nature Forms Engineering Sciences Stories Agriculture Physics Painting Buildings Chemistry Theater Radio & TV Biology Music Telephone Anthropology Language Engines Psychology Religion Electric Power Sociology Mathematics Mechanics Systems Bridges & People Bridges

8 The Arts from the perspective of their Ultimate Critics People Nature Forms Engineering Sciences Stories Agriculture Physics Painting Buildings Chemistry Theater Radio & TV Biology Music Telephone Anthropology Language Engines Psychology Religion Electric Power Sociology Mathematics Mechanics Systems Bridges & People Bridges Bridge Science

9 The Arts from the perspective of their Ultimate Critics People Nature Forms Engineering Sciences Stories Agriculture Physics Painting Buildings Chemistry Theater Radio & TV Biology Music Telephone Anthropology Language Engines Psychology Religion Electric Power Sociology Mathematics Mechanics Systems Bridges & People Bridges Bridge Science Computer Systems & People Computer Systems Computer Science

10

11 Human Universals Coping Social Language Culture Fantasies Stories Tools, Art, Technologies Goals, Plans... Play & Games About 300 of these have been identified Fixed Rules, Flexible Strategies Case based learning Case based reasoning Superstition Religion/Magic Theater Differences over Similarities Quick Reactions To Patterns "The Other" Supernormal Responses Vendetta Value Shortages **Loud Noises & Snakes

12 Human Universals And Non-Universals Coping Social Language Culture Fantasies Stories Tools, Art, Technologies Goals, Plans... Play & Games About 300 of these have been identified Fixed Rules, Flexible Strategies Case based learning Case based reasoning Superstition Religion/Magic Theater Differences over Similarities Quick Reactions To Patterns "The Other" Supernormal Responses Vendetta Value Shortages **Loud Noises & Snakes Progress Writing & Reading Deductive Abstract Math Model Based Science Thought, Thought, Thought Equal Rights Democracy Similarities over Differences Slow Deep Thinking Legal System vs Vendetta Perspective Drawing Theory of Harmony

13 Easy To Learn?

14 Average Price Of A Car In US = $28,500 Average Price Of A High End Laptop = $2,500

15 Which means they can only conceive the future in terms of the present Most people can only experience the present in terms of the past

16 Past Present Future

17 Past Present Future

18 What learning curve are you on? What if the problem is really hard? For decades many people in many countries tried and failed

19 What learning curve are you on? What if the problem is really hard? The problem is that we don't understand the problem. Paul MacCready How can we find out what the problem is? If you don't know what to do, Do lots of things! Everyone else was trying to make an airplane. We were trying to do human powered flight!

20 Change the roles and the relationships... IT Suppliers, vendors End-Users Consumers A Golden Oldie Using network, automatically find the prototypes the endusers are making and sharing Use the prototype as good first pass at requirements Optimize Make more powerful end-user tools and access to resources... Editors, helpers Authors

21 From Computer Aided Design Directly To Artifacts

22 about Ship The Design The computer aided software design system merges and debugs and prints requirements, specifications, and design *as* the app

23 Bitmap displays and ½ Mouse Small low cost powerful personal computers 7 Big Designs From The 70s Graphical User Interface OOP Internet High quality laser printing Ethernet

24

25 About Dependencies Semantic Caching, etc.

26 Go get the future and bring it back Wayne Gretzky Theory of the Future A good hockey player plays where the puck is. A great hockey player plays where the puck is going to be. I wasn't naturally gifted in terms of size and speed; everything I did in hockey I worked for You miss 100% of the shots you don't take

27 The 30 Year Wayne Gretzky Game It would be ridiculous if we didn't have We can do many experiments without having to optimize If we do optimize, then we can make far future apps $ HW Now Years Out 30 Years Out

28 Hardware is just SW crystallized early!

29 Hardware is just SW crystallized early!

30 Hardware is just SW crystallized early!

31 Hardware is just SW crystallized early!

32 Hardware is just SW crystallized early!

33 What is the message of Moore's Law? Moore's Law From Gears to Biology!

34 What is the message of From Gears To Biology? No Centers Extremely Scalable Architectures

35 What was late 70s early 80s message of Extremely Scalable No Centers Architectures??

36 What Can You Make With Bricks? 2 nd Order Golden: But more powerful materials allow more powerful architectures 1 st Order Golden: Architecture Dominates Materials

37 What Can You Make With Bricks? 2 nd Order Golden: But more powerful materials allow more powerful architectures? a b 1 st Order Golden: Architecture Dominates Materials?

38 Try to achieve a scalable ecology, then a psychology We want an ecology of competencies architecture dominates materials Not a biological ecology but a systems ecology meaning dominates connections Not a biological psychology but a systems psychology