Demographic Research Monographs

Transcription

1 Demographic Research Monographs A Series of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research Editor-in-chief James W. Vaupel Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany For further volumes:

2

3 France Meslé Jacques Vallin Mortality and Causes of Death in 20th-Century Ukraine With contributions from Vladimir Shkolnikov Serhii Pyrozhkov Sergei Adamets

4 France Meslé Institut National d Études Démographiques Bd. Davout Paris Cedex 20 France Jacques Vallin Institut National d Études Démographiques Bd. Davout Paris Cedex 20 France Annexes can be downloaded from ( ) Translated from French by Karen George ISSN ISBN e-isbn DOI / Springer Dordrecht Heidelberg London New York Library of Congress Control Number: Springer Science+Business Media B.V No part of this work may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher, with the exception of any material supplied specifically for the purpose of being entered and executed on a computer system, for exclusive use by the purchaser of the work. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (

5 Foreword Our first investigations into causes of death in the Soviet period, conducted at the level of the whole USSR, 1 rapidly convinced us that an in-depth analysis of the Soviet health crisis could hardly go forward without distinguishing between the 15 constituent republics of the USSR, even before it broke down into 15 independent countries. That is why, in 1990, we made a decision to collect the data needed to analyse trends in cause-specific mortality in each republic. This book is the English translation of an updated version of the book originally published in French in 2003, 2 and in Ukrainian in While original dataset covered the period , this one is expanded to the year 2006 and all analyses, comments and graphs have been updated. That work about Ukraine, which comes after the publication of a first volume covering Russia, 4 will soon be followed by a third on the Baltic states. The electronic version of the book is accompanied by a package of files that brings together the technical appendices and the statistical tables, (see either at Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research: or at Springer: ). 1 Meslé, F., Shkolnikov, V., & Vallin, J. (1992). Mortality by cause in the USSR in : the reconstruction of time series. European Journal of Demography, 8, (Also published in French as: La mortalité par causes en URSS de 1970 à 1987: reconstitution de séries statistiques cohérentes (34 p). Paris: INED (Dossiers et recherches, No. 35). 2 Meslé, F., & Vallin, J. (2003). Mortalité et causes de décès en Ukraine au XX e siècle (XVI p). Paris: INED (Les cahiers de l INED, cahier n 152, with contributions by Vladimir Shkolnikov, Serhii Pyrozhkov and Serguei Adamets). 3 Meslé, F., & Vallin, J. (2008). Cмepтнicть тa пpичини cмepтi в Ukpaiнi у XX cтoлiттi [ Mortalité et causes de décès en Ukraine au XXe siècle ] (416 p). Kiev: INED et IDSS (with contributions by Vladimir Shkolnikov, Serhii Pyrozhkov and Serguei Adamets). 4 Meslé, F., Shkolnikov, V.M., Hertrich, V., & Vallin, J. (1996). Tendances récentes de la mortalité par cause en Russie (140 p. + 2 floppy disks). Paris: INED/CDEH. (Bilingual French and Russian publication. Données statistiques, No. 2). v

6 vi Foreword As with the earlier volume, this book relies on the results of a project undertaken jointly by the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED, Paris) and the Centre for Demography and Human Ecology, Moscow, in association with, for the Ukrainian section, the National Institute for International Security Issues in Kiev. France Meslé, Jacques Vallin, and Vladimir Shkolnikov

7 Acknowledgements We would like to thank Anatolii Vishnevskii, Director of the Centre for Demography and Human Ecology, Moscow, and Gérard Calot, Jacques Magaud, Patrick Festy and François Héran, successive Directors of INED, for their encouragement in bringing this long, costly study of Soviet cause-of-death data to fruition. Nor should we omit to mention Alain Blum, Director of Research at INED, who has promoted many collaborative ventures between Russian and French demographers and quickly came to understand the value of bringing the experience that INED has acquired in the area of causes of death to bear on the wealth of completely unpublished Soviet data on this topic. Our thanks also go to Vladimir Shkolnikov, Serhii Pyrozhkov and Sergei Adamets, not only for their direct contributions to some chapters in this book, but also for their work in assembling the basic data, without which these analyses would not have been possible. From the outset, the whole vast research project on the health crisis in the countries of the former USSR of which this book forms a part has relied on patient, laborious data collection, which was made possible in the late 1980s when previously secret archives were opened. Following our first attempt to collect all the archival data relating to causes of death for the whole USSR, 1 in 1991 Vladimir Shkolnikov undertook to draw this material together for each of the 15 Soviet republics for all available years ( ), along with existing population and all-cause mortality data for a longer period. For Ukraine, Serhii Pyrozhkov completed this database by adding the most recent cause-of-death statistics and some archival documents that were not available in Moscow. Finally, Sergei Adamets explored all the Russian, Ukrainian and international literature on Ukraine s eventful demographic history. 1 Meslé, F., Shkolnikov, V., & Vallin, J. (1992). Mortality by cause in the USSR in : the reconstruction of time series. European Journal of Demography, 8, (Also published in French as: La mortalité par causes en URSS de 1970 à 1987: reconstitution de séries statistiques cohérentes (34 p). Paris: INED (Dossiers et recherches, No. 35). vii

8 viii Acknowledgements We would also like to thank Emelian Rudnitskii, researcher at the Institute of Economics of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, for his valuable collaboration in using the archives to reconstruct population change, and in particular mortality, in Ukraine; Galina Gurova, Goskomstat statistician, for her help in understanding many aspects of Soviet classification and coding practices; Dmitrii Bogoiavlenskii, researcher at the Centre for Demography and Human Ecology, Moscow, for providing us with basic data on mortality by nationality in the republics of the former USSR; Gaiane Safarova, researcher at the St Petersburg Institute for Economics and Mathematics, for her encouragement and advice on estimating the demographic consequences of the crises in Ukraine. We are also grateful to the whole data capture and verification team, who patiently entered and checked some 2,000 original manuscript tables which were often difficult to decipher: Jeanine Besse, Élodie Brémaud, Anna-Maria Falconi, Selma Hussein, Ernestine Ngondgi, Mokhtaria Tazi and Tatiana Vichnevskaia. We also extend our thanks to Lisa Godek and Éric Lepenven who, during research placements at INED, helped to reconstruct the cause-specific deaths series, as well as to Ludovic Garonne for layout of the statistical appendices. Special mentions must be also done in the frame of that English version, which is not the direct translation of the French original published in 2003 but an updated one. We thank a lot Ella Libanova, head of the Ukrainian Institute for Demography and Social Sciences, for providing us with data for the years , Sylvia Jasor, research-assistant at INED, for preparing the English version of the technical and statistical appendices (available either at the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research: or at Springer: ), Karen George, for the translation, and Mathilde Paul for preparing the layout. Original work was funded partly within the framework of the joint research programme of the International Association for the Promotion of Cooperation with Scientists from the Independent States of the Former Soviet Union (INTAS Grant No ). Updating was partly funded by the French National Research Agency (ANR, EDICCOD project) while INED supported the cost for translation.

9 Contents 1 General Introduction... 1 Part I Long-Term Trends in Life Expectancy and the Consequences of Major Historical Disasters 2 The Crisis of the 1930s Jacques Vallin, France Meslé, Sergei Adamets, and Serhii Pyrozhkov 3 The Consequences of the Second World War and the Stalinist Repression Jacques Vallin, France Meslé, Sergei Adamets, and Serhii Pyrozhkov Part II Eighty Years of Trends in Sex-Specific and Age-Specific Mortality 4 Is Mortality Under-Estimated? France Meslé, Jacques Vallin, and Vladimir Shkolnikov 5 Eighty Years of Sex-Specific and Age-Specific Mortality Trends France Meslé, Jacques Vallin, and Vladimir Shkolnikov 6 Ukrainians and Russians in Ukraine and in Russia Vladimir Shkolnikov 7 Health Crises and Cohort Mortality Vladimir Shkolnikov ix

10 x Contents Part III Cause-Specific Mortality Trends from Data Collection, Data Quality and the History of Cause-of-Death Classification Vladimir Shkolnikov, France Meslé, and Jacques Vallin 9 Reconstructing Series of Deaths by Cause with Constant Definitions General Trends in Mortality by Cause Impact of Major Groups of Causes on Life Expectancy Trends France Meslé, Jacques Vallin, and Serhii Pyrozhkov 12 Mortality Trends by Age Group and Detailed Causes of Death Conclusion Index