Space Situational Awareness Space Weather Element Briefing to Spanish Industry

Transcription

1 Space Situational Awareness Space Weather Element Briefing to Spanish Industry E. Daly, A. Hilgers, A. Glover ESA Space Environments and Effects Section, ESTEC, The Netherlands With contributions from SSA programme proposal management Nicolas Bobrinsky, ESA Operations Directorate Luca del Monte, ESA HQ Policy Office CDTI Madrid, 8 July 2008

2 Outline Introductory Information History of Activities Space Weather in the SSA Programme Possible Activities Conclusions

3 What is Space Weather? conditions on the sun and in the solar wind, magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere that can influence the performance and reliability of space-borne and ground-based technological systems and can endanger human life or health [US National Space Weather Programme]

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5 Scope from the SSA Perspective A Space Weather service component of the SSA programme aims at providing to operational teams accurate, relevant and timely information on the status of the space environment and the risk of predicted or ongoing space weather phenomena to the operational capability of European assets (e.g. through radiation induced spacecraft anomalies, spaceto-ground radio-link perturbation, enhanced spacecraft drag). Spin-off applications also address needs of affected ground-based users.

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7 Some History esa-spaceweather.net : Major requirements analyses and system studies SWWT (sp.w. working team) & SWW (workshops) : Space Weather pilot project : SW in SSA Programme preparation continuous: R&D activities and mission support e.g. SW monitors on spacecraft; modelling development Some past/current activities of note Scientific missions provide key data e.g. ESA-NASA SOHO mission; NASA ACE mission; International Space Environment Service (ISES) > WMO ESA is an expert centre, fosters European participation NOAA support to ESA Space Weather Pilot Project mirroring of server in Europe for service prototyping COST, EU and other (non-esa) European cooperations Spacecraft Operations - Space Weather Support > studies (SEIS), SESS and G4SESS (DEIMOS, INTA) Solar Particle Event modelling (Univ. Barcelona) Lisa Pathfinder Radiation Monitor (IEEC, IFAE, NTE (Barcelona)), Radiation Effects on Spacecraft (INTA) Geomagnetic Storms (Dep. de Física, Universidad de Alcalá) Component radiation effects (various Spanish institutes/industry) (Mars Atmosphere (Inst. De Astrofísica de Andalucía))

8 Space Weather Applications Pilot Project Aim to support investigation of maturity of the market ~30 CO-FUNDED services established; esa-spaceweather.net esa-spaceweather.net

9 Technology Development Modelling and data systems: Environment modelling for engineering: Radiation belt models Solar particle events Ionospheric modelling Jupiter/Mars/ Operations support systems science Galileo telecoms Information systems Engineering and analysis tools radiation effects; plasma interactions Space debris/meteoroid risk analysis Environment Monitors Radiation monitors tailored or general purpose XMM, Integral, GIOVE-A, -B, JASON-2, Plasma monitors Small technology satellites: PROBA-1 Earth Obs. with radiation monitor auxiliary payload PROBA-2 Solar observation payload (EUV imager, irradiance) (2009) future small satellites

10 Example: Galileo GIOVE-B B Radiation Monitor June 2008 AE8

11 Monitor the Sun solar wind radiation belts magnetosphere ionosphere surface B field SSA SW Services Addressing User Needs Provide reliable local spacecraft (/launcher) radiation, plasma & electromagnetic data for re-construction, nowcast & forecast of hazardous conditions timely and reliable ionospheric disturbances nowcast and forecast important to Galileo signal and service quality thermospheric density for spacecraft drag calculation timely and reliable ionospheric density profile nowcast and forecast results of ground-level magnetic field variations monitoring and forecast * nowcast = re-constructing in real-time the present environment based on data, proxies & models.

12 User Sectors Affected by by Local Local Space Space Environment Spacecraft Operations Services Launcher Support Human Human Spaceflight Support Science Missions Operations Services Spacecraft Development Air Air Transport Services Other Other SSA SSA Services Affected by by Ionospheric Disturbances Navigation Services Communications Services Air Air Transport Services Others Others Tourism Affected by by Geomag. Induced Currents Power Power Industry Services Survey, Oil Oil & Gas Gas Services

13 Some Examples of Current Resources GNSS Scintillation Network (CLS) Ground Based Magnetometers ESA/NASA SOHO L1 Ionospheric monitoring (GPS TEC) ESA-EU Giove Aurora NASA/POLAR NASA ACE NOAA/SEM mep0e1 mep0e2 mep0e3 Event 100 NOAA GOES

14 SSA Structure 4 SSA service elements: Surveillance and Tracking of manmade space objects Man-made Space Objects Imaging Space weather monitoring and forecast Near-Earth Objects Surveillance and Tracking 1 SSA support element: Networking and data centres (1) (1) space weather related components

15 Possible SW Structure Federation of existing competences and assets; New coordination function; Distributed architecture: Major IT investments in period 1.

16 A Possible European SSA-SW SW Programme Period 1: Consolidate of tailored European requirements; Implement a European system by networking distributed assets; Develop of services; enhance existing capabilities; Establish data policies, standards, technology for SW data processing; Implement SW auxiliary payloads on European spacecraft; Initiate design of the required spacecraft payloads and platforms; Develop technology (ground & space); Coordination with international partners; other communities (incl. science).. Period 2: Re-analysis of evolving requirements for a space segment directly reflecting operational experience and needs potentially monitoring the radiation belts, solar wind, and/or solar eruptive phenomena; Continue development of ground-based SW monitors and IT infrastructure; Further develop space weather service precursor space segment Extend, develop, validate services in response to user requirements Operate a full scale service including new space and ground developments Expand

17 Space Element Options Studied L1 LEO GTO Solar Activity Monitor (L1) Solar Wind Monitor (L1) Ionosphere Monitor System (LEO) Space Radiation Monitor System (GTO or sub-geo) Monitors on many future ESA & Member States spacecraft (Galileo, Alphasat, Herschel, METOP, ) ESA & Industry System Studies, 2001 esa-spaceweather.net

18 Subsystem Objectives Mission type Instruments Radiation belt monitor Primary: reference radiation belt monitoring and absolute measurement; Secondary: solar energetic proton, heavier ion, and plasma monitoring, plasmasheet location, auroral electrons, plasmasphere location, geomagnetic activity. Service precursor with a dedicated spacecraft on a GTO-like orbit or alternatively a combination of SSO+GTO and auxiliary payloads on partner spacecraft. High-quality particle telescopes for electron energy spectrum determination Medium energy electron analyser Proton monitor Magnetometer Solar wind monitor Primary: upstream solar wind magnetic field, density and speed measurements. Secondary: other solar measurements, high energy particles. Service precursor with a dedicated spacecraft at the first Lagrangian point ( L1) Ion and electron spectrometer Tri-axial magnetometer Solar activity monitor Primary: Detection and advance warning of solar activity (solar flares and coronal mass ejections). Also advanced warning of solar energetic particle event arrival at Earth. Service precursor with a dedicated spacecraft at the first Lagrangian point ( L1) or alternatively on a SSO or a GEO-like orbit UV or X-ray solar disc imager Low mass solar coronograph Ionosphere monitor Secondary: EUV integrated flux, solar indices. Primary: Total Electron Content (TEC) and ionospheric density tomography over the globe. Secondary: plasmasphere location, scintillation map. Service precursor with a dedicated spacecraft on low earth high inclination orbit. Dual frequency GPS receiver

19 Technologies Needed for SSA-SW SW Include: Space-based instrumentation: solar imaging local plasma local radiation remote sensing of ionosphere Eventual space platforms (L1, ) Ground-based monitoring solar solar wind ionosphere magnetosphere Tracking/data stations Ground based IT infrastructure: Distributed systems Data stream handling Modelling Exploitation (data assimilation, ) Services

20 Possible Opportunities Services and programme development Architecture development IT (networking, data processing) User interfacing Quality management (metrics, requirements, validation); Data exchange management Technology Developments (e.g. GSTP-5 Element 3) Space instrumentation: energetic particle spectrometers; Plasma monitors: spectrometers, solar wind monitors Solar imagers (UV, X) GPS/ionosphere remote sensing (microparticle sensors) Calibration and validation Ground instrumentation Muon/cosmic ray sensors Solar H-α telescopes Magnetometers Ionospheric monitoring Service Segment Modelling, data assimilation, tools & product development System studies for eventual platform development

21 Conclusions ESA has actively fostered the creation of the foundations for user-oriented space weather services in Europe; Complemented by R&D related to ESA s specific technical concerns; Space Weather services will be developed in the future within ESA s SSA framework; Exploitation of National skills are crucial; (global collaboration is a likely element in the future strategy)

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23 backups

24 Centre functions From PP Overall system activities: Consolidation and coordination of existing assets Development of new tools, including models, based on existing space and ground data Development of information processing infrastructure and user interfaces for space weather data Data collection, decoding and processing Data-driven model execution Data archiving Data pipelining to service functions Targeted domain/user specific service provision Dissemination of model results (forecast solar activity, radiation levels, plasma environment, thermosphere. ionosphere ) Development and application of metrics for validation of services Development and deployment of 24 hours/day 7 days/week operations Specific tasks to be carried out by the European Centre for Space Weather Services would include, but not be limited to: Coordinating distributed space weather resources and services at a European level; Ensuring close collaboration with National agencies and the EC in order to ensure continued operation and modernisation of facilities; Ensuring the coordination, processing and exploitation of space weather-related data resources; Establishing products (models and tools) addressing space weather effects; Maintaining close contact with the user community in order to anticipate evolving requirements, and to develop customer awareness and marketing strategies; Coordinating (and where necessary, initiating) targeted research and development, including maintaining a watching brief on relevant scientific research.

25 SWENET Prototypes and Services

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27 SWENET products examples

28 SWENET ACCESS SWENET ACCESS Pilot Project continuing interest during the maintenance-only phase: Other Other Organistion Organistion Type Type Distribution Distribution May May Nov Nov University or Institute University or Institute Commercial company Commercial company Nonprofit Organisation Nonprofit Organisation Government Government Military Military

29 Benefits analyses (SEA Ltd., UK) Substantial net economic benefits over time (200M - 1B per year in 2021) To be added to strategic benefits