Twenty Year Forecasts of Population and Households, Louisville Economic Area

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1 Twenty Year Forecasts of Population and Households, Louisville Economic Area Economic Geography The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) assigns every county in the nation to an economic area. BEA s economic areas define the relevant regional markets surrounding metropolitan or micropolitan statistical areas. Each economic area consists of one or more economic nodes, which are metropolitan or micropolitan statistical areas that serve as regional centers of economic activity, as well as the surrounding counties that are economically linked to the nodes. The delineations are primarily determined by commuting patterns and newspaper readership data. The Louisville Economic Area is comprised of 25 counties in Kentucky and southern Indiana with Louisville located in the center. The Louisville Economic Area consists of the 12 county Louisville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), the Elizabethtown-Fort Knox MSA, the Bardstown Micropolitan Statistical Area (µsa), the Campbellsville µsa, the Madison µsa in Indiana, and several surrounding rural counties.

2 In order to present data within a county, the U.S. Census Bureau delineates census tracts for every county in the nation. Census tracts are created using identifiable features such as roads, rivers and railroad tracks, and encompass approximately 4,000 people. Census tracts are meant to be relatively homogenous units, representing populations with similar characteristics. Census tracts do not cross county boundaries, and data for all census tracts in a county will sum to that county s total. There are 397 census tracts in the 25 county Louisville Economic area, of which 191 are in Jefferson County. There were 637,000 households in the region in 2010, with a combined population of 1.6 million. Of this regional population, 46 percent reside in Jefferson County. Forecasts of Population and Households We forecasted the number of households and total population for each of the 397 census tracts in the 25 county economic area. This process integrated data from the 2000 and 2010 Census, the 2011 National Land Cover Database, and existing county-level forecasts of population provided by the Indiana and Kentucky State Data Centers. We began by forecasting the population in households for each census tract using the Hamilton-Perry method. This method involves calculations of rates of change for each age group in each census tract between two Census periods and then carrying the rates of change forward into the projection period. Limits on the amount of growth that could occur in a time period were derived from the National Land Cover Database to ensure population density remained reasonable given the zoning of an area. Additional adjustments were made through an expert review process, which gave special consideration to census tracts likely to be affected by pending events including the Ohio River Bridges Project, the loss of jobs at Fort Knox, and continuing patterns of suburbanization. The tract level forecasts were then calibrated against the county level forecasts developed by the state demographers at the University of Louisville and Indiana University to ensure the sum of the tracts equaled the county total. The tract level forecasts of population in households were translated into forecasts of households using the headship method. This method involves calculating the proportion of the population in households that are the head of household from the most recent Census and applying this rate to the forecasts of population in households. Having determined forecasts of the number of households and the population in households for each tract, we then calculated the predicted average household size for each tract. Forecasts of total population were made by adding in the population in group quarters to the forecasts of population in households. The population in group quarters is assumed to remain constant through the projection period.

3 County Level Forecasts Most of the region s population growth is expected to occur in the counties surrounding Jefferson County. While Jefferson County is projected to grow 13 percent over the next few decades, the other 11 counties in the Louisville MSA are projected to grow 29 percent, more than double the rate of Jefferson County. The Louisville MSA, including Jefferson County, is projected to grow nearly 20 percent. The 13 counties outside of the Louisville MSA are projected to grow by 15 percent. The total 25 county area is projected to grow nearly 19 percent. Forecasted Population Growth, Change Percent Change Jefferson County, KY 99, % Louisville MSA 247, % TOTAL - 25 County 301, % The forecasted household size is expected to decline slightly, but remain close to 2010 levels. With stabilized average household size, it is expected that population growth and household growth will occur at similar rates. Forecasted Household Growth, Change Percent Change Jefferson County, KY 42, % Louisville MSA 102, % TOTAL - 25 County 127, % Forecasted Household Size, Census 2010 Census Jefferson County, KY Louisville MSA TOTAL - 25 County

4 Jefferson County is predicted to experience the largest absolute growth in the number of households. The four counties surrounding Jefferson are projected to have the largest percentage increase in the number of households. Bullitt, Oldham, Shelby and Spencer counties are expected to experience at least a 45 percent increase in the number of households by These four counties along with Jefferson account for 65 percent of the expected household growth in the region over the next few decades. Hardin and Nelson counties and Clark County, Indiana are also projected to experience sizeable increases in the number of households over the next twenty years. Forecasted Household Growth, Change Percent Change Clark County, IN 8, % Crawford County, IN % Floyd County, IN 3, % Harrison County, IN 3, % Jefferson County, IN % Scott County, IN 1, % Washington County, IN 1, % Adair County, KY 1, % Breckinridge County, KY 1, % Bullitt County, KY 13, % Carroll County, KY % Grayson County, KY % Green County, KY % Hardin County, KY 8, % Henry County, KY % Jefferson County, KY 42, % Larue County, KY % Marion County, KY 1, % Meade County, KY 1, % Nelson County, KY 6, % Oldham County, KY 11, % Shelby County, KY 8, % Spencer County, KY 6, % Taylor County, KY 1, % Trimble County, KY % TOTAL - 25 County 127, % Census Tract Level Forecast Summary The maps below show the forecasted change in households in both absolute and percentage terms in the 25 county region through As can be seen in the maps, the greatest growth in households will occur in eastern Jefferson County and the tracts to the east and southeast of Jefferson County in Oldham, Shelby, Spencer and Bullitt Counties.

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7 The next map shows the top twenty tracts that are forecasted to experience the largest absolute growth in households. Eight of the top twenty tracts are located in eastern and southeastern Jefferson County near the Gene Snyder Freeway. The tract in Clark County, Indiana near Utica, Charlestown and northeastern Jeffersonville is forecasted to experience sizable household growth in the next few decades due to the accessibility created by the Ohio River Bridges Project. Tracts in the western half of Spencer County near Elk Creek and Taylorsville are projected to gain over 4,000 households by Tracts in western Shelby County near Simpsonville and Shelbyville are projected to grow by nearly 4,000 households. Oldham County is projected to experience considerable household growth near Prospect, River Bluff, and Goshen. Tracts in Bullitt County near Shepherdsville and Mount Washington will continue to gain households over the next twenty years. Only two tracts in the list of top twenty tracts gaining households are in counties not bordering Jefferson County. One is in Nelson County near northern Bardstown which is projected to gain over 1,600 households. The other tract is in Hardin County west of Elizabethtown which is also projected to grow by 1,600 households.

8 The next map shows the bottom twenty tracts forecasted to experience the largest absolute decreases in the number of households. Fourteen of the bottom twenty tracts are located in Jefferson County, most of which are inside the Watterson Expressway. Three tracts are located in southern Indiana near New Albany and Clarksville. Another three tracts are located in Hardin County near Fort Knox and Radcliff. The Fort Knox base is facing sizable job cuts from the U.S. Army, leading to population loss in the area. The region is forecasted to gain population overall in the next twenty years, so the forecasted decreases in households are of a much smaller magnitude than the predicted increases in households. Presentation of Forecasts Three tables are attached that provide detail on the forecasts summarized above. The first presents total population by census tract. The second presents households by census tract. The third presents county populations since the last decennial census and forecasts to 2035.