Openness, Trade and FDI

Transcription

1 Openness, Trade FDI Lionel Fontagné 1,2 1 PSE - University Paris 1, 2 CEPII LSE Growth Commission Nov.21, 2016

2 After Brexit what are the alternatives? UK member of the SEM: free movement of goods, services, people, capital & Acquis communautaire : Another model has to be designed, under constraints: UK is a small open economy: New era of mega trade deals (e.g. TPP) Geography of trade has fundamentals: EU = 45% of UK exports & 13% of UK income Any shift from gravity forces will come at a cost UK industries engaged in GVCs: Large chunk of activity depends on MNEs location decisions

3 After Brexit what are the alternatives? (cont.) EEA: Norway, Icel, Lichtenstein, (UK) + 27 Free movement of goods, services, people capital Exports to the EU subject to customs requirements, RoO possibly antidumping Contribution to the EU budget (80% of current UK net contribution) EFTA: Switzerl (rejection of the EEA membership in 1992) Around 100 bilateral agreements currently exist between the EU Switzerl (eg. TBTs, public procurement, agriculture, free movement of persons) Zero tariff quotas for manufacturing only Limited access to the SEM for services agro-food products Contribution to the EU budget (40% of current UK net contribution)

4 Why market access is a major issue UK exporting 4,959 out of 5,107 HS product categories to the EU USD 197 bn, 2014 Massive exports of services to the EU USD 136 bn, 2014, mode 1 only Central location for FDI IFDI stock = 58% of UK GDP, 2014 IFDI flow = 10% of domestic invt 2014 Announced greenfield investment projects 2015: world market share in value as destination: 7.4% (Germany 1.6%) Market potential leading determinants of inward FDI

5 What about tariffs? Average EU MNN tariff low (3.5% overall), except for agro-food products (16.2%) MFN tariffs concentrated in sectors where UK is disadvantaged (low exports in absence of tariffs) Tariff peaks still present at product level (63 peaks > 10% for UK exported products) detailed evidence at the HS2 & HS6 level

6 What about tariffs? (cont.) Figure : MFN tariff rates UK exports to the EU, 2014, by HS2 MFN export Source: BACI MAcMapHS6 databases, CEPII

7 What about tariffs? (cont.) Figure : MFN tariff peaks on UK exports to the EU, 2014, by HS2 mfnpk Organic Chemicals Miscellaneous Chemical Products Beverages Spirits Vinegar Articles of Apparel Clothing Accessories Not export Vehicles othr Than R Electrical Machinery Equipment a Note: Mean of the two highest peaks within HS2 if t > 10% & X > 2 bn

8 Putting numbers on the consequences (cont.) Brexit may mean (depending of alternative chosen): Increase in tariffs Increase in Non-Tariff Barriers Missed opportunities of further completion of the SEM (relative increase) Alternative quantifications: New Quantitative Trade Model Dhingra, Huang, Ottaviano, Pessoa (2016) The Costs Benefits of Leaving the EU: Trade Effects, LSE-CEP Computable General Equilibrium Model Fontagné, Guimbard (2016) Ex ante assessment of a further deepening of the SEM, CEPII Impact on GDP Compare outcome with reference in 2027 LSE-CEP -1.37% (Norwegian solution: optimistic ) CEPII -1.41% (Swiss solution) Missed gains of SEM deepening: 1.45% (CEPII)

9 Putting numbers on the consequences (cont.) Intrinsic limits of ex ante quantification: FDI decisions not taken into account Dynamic effects hardly measured Consider ex post methods accounting for unobservable dimensions of integration Gravity estimates (Dhingra et al.,2016) joining ETFA reduces UK-EU trade by 25%, UK trade by 12.5%, thus UK income by 6 to 10% Synthetic Counterfactuals Method (Campos, Coricelli, Moretti, 2014) 0.7 pp annual GDP pc growth dividend for the UK membership

10 Take home for policy makers UK trade will hardly escape from gravity: EU natural trade partner Investors location decisions shaped by trade potential (market access) MFN tariffs low but tariff peaks present NTMs huge for both G & S Soft Brexit keeping market access to be negotiated Good news: recent announcements (e.g. Nissan, Google) suggest that MNEs bet on UK capacity to negotiate such deal Bad news: even a soft Brexit would mean impoverishment in the medium run, the more so it the EU reacts with deepened integration

11 Thank You

12 Descriptive Evidence (S1) Figure : UK exports of services to the EU, 2014 Other business services Transport Telecommunications, computer Manufacturing repair service Construction Financial services, insurance Travel Intellectual property Personal, cultural recreatio Other services Source: Eurostat, EU as reporter

13 Descriptive Evidence (S2) Figure : MFN tariff rates UK exports to the EU, 2014, by HS2 MFN Sugars Sugar Confectionery Meat Edible Meat Offal Dairy Produce. Birds Eggs. Natural Honey. Edible P Products of the Milling Industry. Malt. Starches. Tobacco Manufactured Tobacco Substitutes Preparations of Vegetables Fruit Nuts or othr Pa Live Animals Preparations of Meat of Fish or of Crustaceans M Edible Cereals Vegetables Certain Roots Tubers Residues Waste From the Food Industries. Prepa Animal or Vegetable Fats Oils Their Cleava Footwear Articles of Gaiters of Apparel the Like. Clothing Parts Accessories of Such Arti Knit Not Edible othr Fish Made Fruit Up Crustaceans Textile Nuts. Articles. Molluscs Peel of Citrus Sets. Fruit Worn othr or Clothing Aquatic In Mel Knitted Carpets Preparations Albuminoidal or Crocheted othr Substances. Textile of Fabrics Cereals Floor Flour Modified Coverings Starch or Milk. Pa Vehicles othr Than Railway or Tramw Starches. Glues. Explosives. Live Special Impregnated Trees Miscellaneous Woven Ceramic Aluminum Products Pyrotechnic Beverages Coated othr Fabrics. Plants. Edible Covered Tufted Articles Products. Spirits Preparations Bulbs Textile or Thereof Roots Matches. Laminated Fabrics. Vinegar Pyropho the Textile Lac L Silk Cotton Cork Clocks Fertilisers Man Photographic Man Articles Glass Made Made Tanning Articles of Watches Leather Staple Filaments or or Cinematographic Glassware Fibres Dyeing Extracts. Plastics Goods Tannins Articles Thereof Their Deri Umbrellas Wadding Felt Sun Miscellaneous Umbrellas Nonwovens. of Cork Saddlery Parts Travel Thereof Goods Hb Headgear Inorganic Parts Chemicals. Organic Walking Special Chemicals Sticks Yarns. Products Seat Twine. Sti Manufactures Prepared Musical Wool Miscellaneous of Straw Thereof Esparto Organic othr Inorganic Plait Compound Coffee Raw Tools Fine Instruments. Manufactured Parts Accessories of Such Cocoa Copper Tea Articles Furniture. Cocoa Maté of Essential Stone Bedding of Plaster Iron Preparations Oils Airraft Spices Mattresses Thereof Furskins Lac. Lead Miscellaneous Soap Hides Gums Rubber Implements Feathers Coarse Organic Resins Articles Skins Surface Thereof Articles Cutlery Animal Down othr Artificial Fur. othr Manufactures Steel Base thn active Thereof Spoons Hair. Articles Horsehair Furskins Made of Fe Cement Vegetable Spacecraft Resinoids. Metal Agents Forks Yarn Washing Leather of a othr Zinc othr Railway Wood Articles Oil Mattress Asbestos Saps Thereof Perfumery Supports Parts Mica ExtrThereof CosmeticsElectrical Machinery Nuclear Equipment Reactors Boilers Parts The M Works Nickel Seeds or of art, Natural Tramway Articles Thereof B Ammunition. Vegetable Base Metals. Textile Cermets. Prepa Articles Oleaginous Locomotives Optical collectors' Iron or Cultured Thereof pieces Steel Fruits. Photographic Pearls Miscellaneous Rolling Stock Cinematographic antiques Precious or Semi Gra Measuring Tin Ores Pulp Products Salt. Ships Toys of Printed Slag Sulphur. Articles Wood Paper Boats Games Parts Fibres. Articles Wood. of Animal Books or Earths Ash Thereof othr Paperboard. Origin Floating Sports Accessories Paper Wood Charcoal Yarn Thereof Newspapers Fibrous Stone. Not Structures Requisites. Thereof Wove Parts Acces Vegetable Plaiting Materials. Vegetable Elsewhere Cellulosic Articles Plastering Pictures Products of Specified Materia Paper Materi othr NPulp Produ Pharmaceutical Preci of P Products Mineral Fuels Mineral Oi export Source: BACI MAcMapHS6 databases, CEPII