Moving from insights to interventions

Transcription

1 Moving from insights to interventions Designing experiments to reduce fuel waste and change organizational culture in military environments Behavior, Energy, & Climate Change Annual Meeting Baltimore, Maryland October 20, 2016 Amy K. Wolfe (Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Eric Shields (Naval Surface Warfare Center, Carderock Division, Plus ORNL is managed by UT-Battelle for the US Department of Energy DISTRIBUTION A. Approved for public release: distribution unlimited

2 ERDC-CERL: Tom Decker Amanda Ehmann Nate Putnam, PhD Craig White EXWC: Ken King Earl Childs Marcus Highfill MCSC: John Peters JPID Consulting: Ibibia Dabipi, PhD Valerie Lefler, MPA Judy Perkins, PhD, PE Kristian Smith Jeffrey Stevens, PhD Diedre Sanders Williams, LTC (retired) NSWCCD: Sean Sadlier ORNL: Erin Rose John Reed, PhD (Innovologie, LLC) Special thanks to the sponsor of this work, the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Defense for Operational Energy (ODASD (OE)) 2 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.

3 BEyOnD seeks to reduce fuel consumption through behavioral changes BEYOND = BEHAVIORAL ENERGY OPERATIONS DEMONSTRATION BEyOnD seeks to reduce groundbased USMC fuel consumption in austere environments by over 10% by changing human behavior at little to no cost; four foci Phase I: observation, interviews, & analysis Phase II: experimentation Phase III: broader implementation Vehicle Idling Vehicle Operations Environmental Control Units Electrical Equipment Usage 3 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.

4 Situation: Clear imperatives to save fuel; but fuel-wasting behaviors among warfighters Imperatives for saving fuel Extends operational reach Reduces casualties, death Also saves money, conserves energy Saving fuel = reducing fuel wastage Fuel usable for other, higher priority purposes Fuel wastage (prior evidence, observations) Vehicles idling for (very) long times; driving behavior Generators used at very low capacities ECUs heating/cooling unnecessarily 4 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.

5 Phase I took an Institutional Change * approach to understand WHY warfighters behave the way they do Using an evidencebased, social science continuous improvement approach to help agencies design, implement, and achieve lasting energy and sustainability goals * US Department of Energy, Federal Energy Management Program, Institutional Change Team N. Baker, FEMP program manager A. Wolfe (ORNL), C. Payne and R. Diamond (LBNL), IC Team 5 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.

6 Empirical data collection at ITX * 50+ observations and 49 interviews ** 5 days, in May 2016 Varied training settings and activities, fixed & mobile Temperatures ( F) did not require cooling for large blocks of time 15 BEyOnD team members conducted observations 6 BEyOnD team members conducted interviews based on observations * Integrated Training Exercise, USMC, at Twentynine Palms, CA, May 2016 ** With Human Subjects Institutional Review Board approval 6 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.

7 Phase I produced compelling behavioral insights, from Marines perspectives Varied behaviors in similar circumstances Inattention to energy Roles matter Technologies matter Often, fuel NOT wasted 7 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.

8 Phase I produced compelling behavioral insights, from Marines perspectives Varied behaviors in similar circumstances Informal rules of thumb, sources of information Inattention to energy When considered, fuel typically not highest priority Roles matter Motor transport specialists Utilities specialists Formal & informal Rules Fill gaps in training Shape normal (local) priorities & practices Define role-specific responsibilities, penalties, restrictions Technologies matter Often, fuel NOT wasted 8 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.

9 Phase I produced compelling behavioral insights, from Marines perspectives Varied behaviors in similar circumstances Inattention to energy Roles matter Technologies matter Often, fuel NOT wasted Tools: Technologies, systems, & behavior inextricably linked ECU controls Reliability of gauges Equipment readiness and needs Microgrid deployment a notable case of easy adoption Saves energy plus o o Increases reliability Frees time for missionessential activities 9 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.

10 Phase I produced compelling behavioral insights, from Marines perspectives Varied behaviors in similar circumstances Inattention to energy Roles matter Technologies matter Often, fuel NOT wasted Vehicle idling Tactical readiness (functional, symbolic) Equipment readiness Preserve batteries Powering equipment (vehicles as generators) Generators and ECUs Equipment environmental needs Linkage to vehicles/batteries 10 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.

11 Results from Phase I intended to identify potential Phase II experimental interventions Now, what? Findings/insights do NOT automatically translate into [obvious] interventions 11 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.

12 Multiple approaches could be used to select interventions Weighted decision matrix approach For each [specified] proposed intervention & target (vehicle idling, ECU, etc.) Criteria (decision weight) C1: Meets fuel-saving objective (2) C2: Compatible with existing operations and norms (2) C3: Advantage(s) over existing practice (2) C4: Easily observable impacts (1) C5: Multiple benefits Mission (1) C6: Multiple benefits Safety (1) C7: Aligns with Marine specialty (0.5) C8: Shovel-ready & scalable for wide adoption (0.5) Logic model approach Intervention score Spider plot approach C2 C8 4 6 C1 2 C7 0 C3 C6 C4 C5 For each [specified] proposed intervention Resources Activities For whom To whom Outputs Short-term outcomes Long-term outcomes Goals 12 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.

13 Multiple approaches could be used to select interventions Weighted decision matrix approach (illustrative) For each [specified] proposed intervention & target (vehicle idling, ECU, etc.) Criteria (decision weight) C1: Meets fuel-saving objective (2) C2: Compatible with existing operations and norms (2) C3: Advantage(s) over existing practice (2) C4: Easily observable impacts (1) Logic model approach Intervention score Spider plot approach 6 C1 C2 C5: Multiple benefits Mission (1) 2 C7 0 C3 C6: Multiple Criteria benefits Safety (1) and weights should derive from C7: Aligns with Marine specialty (0.5) C6 C4 and fit within the institutional change C5 C8: Shovel-ready & scalable for wide adoption (0.5) continuous improvement process (from For each [specified] proposed intervention goals and assessment of institutional context) Resources Activities For whom To whom Outputs Short-term outcomes C8 Long-term outcomes 4 Goals 13 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.

14 Process raises many questions; answers are not obvious Goal specification what constitutes success What goals? How to be measured (interim/end)? Behavior change fuel savings (necessarily) Short term success persistent success Short-term demonstration indicator of persistence? strategic intervention? Criteria for selecting interventions Derive from goal specification Logic of how intervention can achieve goal(s) Understanding about why target populations would change behavior How to get people to change [specified] behavior? Complex systems which points of interventions, amongst which groups, to achieve which goals (demonstrably)? 14 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.

15 Organizational, institutional approach map key roles & issues; then think about potential points of intervention fuel always available preparedness mix-ups What intervention can break this cycle? [e.g., add fuellimited exercises?] fuel must always be available Commanding officer Driver of vehicle What intervention can break this cycle? [e.g., labels as reminder but to reinforce what commander does] does what told Logistical command Other role 15 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.

16 We are deciding how best to proceed We ve determined some elements Separate sets of interventions For vehicles and for ECUs/generators Quasi-experimental approach With control vs intervention comparisons We ve identified ideas for interventions, but have neither completed that process nor selected which interventions to pursue in Phase II experimentation stay tuned 16 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.

17 Thank you. Questions? 17 BECC 2016, Moving from insights to interventions, Wolfe, Shields, et al.