MACHINES REPLACING PEOPLE? DOES THE INTERNET OF THINGS LEAD TO EXCLUSIVE SOCIETIES?

Transcription

1 Professur für Policy Analyse und Politische Wirtschaftslehre MACHINES REPLACING PEOPLE? DOES THE INTERNET OF THINGS LEAD TO EXCLUSIVE SOCIETIES? Lecture Series Universität Bonn / DIE: The Agenda 2030 Dealing with Grand Challenges for Mankind Bonn, January 12, 2017 / Prof. Dr. Daniel Buhr

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3 Grand Challenges : Health, Demographic Change & Well-Being Ressource Efficiency & Climate Secure, Clean & Efficient Energy Food Security Smart, Green and Integrated Transport Inclusive, Innovation & Secure Societies

4 People Planet Prosperity Peace Partnership We are determined to end poverty and hunger, in all their forms and dimensions, and to ensure that all human beings can fulfil their potential in dignity and equality and in a healthy environment. We are determined to protect the planet from degradation, including through sustainable consumption and production, sustainably managing its natural resources and taking urgent action on climate change, so that it can support the needs of the present and future generations. We are determined to ensure that all human beings can enjoy prosperous and fulfilling lives and that economic, social and technological progress occurs in harmony with nature. We are determined to foster peaceful, just and inclusive societies which are free from fear and violence. There can be no sustainable development without peace and no peace without sustainable development. We are determined to mobilize the means required to implement this Agenda through a revitalised Global Partnership for Sustainable Development, based on a spirit of strengthened global solidarity, focussed in particular on the needs of the poorest and most vulnerable and with the participation of all countries, all stakeholders and all people. Source: UN 2030 Agenda 4 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

5 If we realize our ambitions across the full extent of the Agenda, the lives of all will be profoundly improved and our world will be transformed for the better. Source: UN 2030 Agenda 5 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

6 Digitalization: Integration of digital technologies into everyday life by the digitization of everything that can be digitized. ( 6 Daniel Buhr 2015 Universität Tübingen Bildquelle:

7 Source: WEF 2016 Future of Jobs 7 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

8 Source: WEF 2016 Future of Jobs 8 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

9 9 Prof. Dr. Daniel Buhr 2010 Universität Tübingen

10 Everybody benefits... (Eric Schmidt, Google) Source: WTVOX 10 Prof. Dr. Daniel Buhr 2010 Universität Tübingen

11 Digitalization Opportunities: Smart Cities, Smart Grids, Smart Health, Smart everything Real-time networking of industrial processes makes production cheaper, sustainable and efficient. Digital networking allows the direct involvement of customer demands and the cost-effective customization of products and services. The world of work could be made more humane. Beyond all that, digitalization (i.e. Industry 4.0) could provide enormous potential for new products, services and solutions that could enrich people s everyday lives. 11 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

12 Everybody benefits... (?) 12 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

13 Digitalization Risks: increasing concentration of data in the hands of a few monopolies able to evade state control and taxes; On-demand jobs and crowd work : Platform economy companies avoid employer responsibilities paying by task greater flexibility means also: lower job security, higher income volatility, lower access to social protection, more responsibility for skills development; acceleration and intensification of work and more stress; loss of a whole range of abilities and skills (physical, manual but also intellectual); intensification of the digital divide and the polarisation of society, the continuing erosion of the boundaries between work and private life Loss of data and privacy (data safety & security) job loss 13 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

14 Source: Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

15 Polarisation? Frey/Osborne 2013: 47% of the jobs in the US are under risk of automatisation and digitisation 15

16 automation and digitalisation are unlikely to destroy large numbers of jobs. Arntz/Gregory/Zierahn Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

17 Source: Arntz/Gregory/Zierahn 2016, based on the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) (2012) 17 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

18 The German case. Source: Dengler Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

19 routine tasks versus non-routine tasks The findings show that unskilled/semi-skilled and specialist occupations reveal similar substitution potentials with approximately 45 per cent. Only complex specialist or highly complex occupations are connected with a lower substitution potential. The findings also demonstrate that fears of a massive loss of jobs through ongoing digitalization are currently unfounded. Approximately 15 per cent of employees in Germany are confronted with a high substitution potential. But that does not necessarily mean that their jobs will be lost. Whether these tasks are in fact taken over by computers will depend on other factors such as legal and ethical obstacles, as well as considerations of cost (Bonin et al. 2015). Source: Dengler Daniel Buhr 2010 Universität Tübingen

20 Humans and Machines the future? Automation scenario: Hybrid scenario: Specialisation scenario: systems direct humans. Monitoring and control tasks are taken over by technology. It prepares and distributes information in real time. Employees respond to the needs of cyberphysical systems (CPS) and take on primarily executive tasks. The abilities of lesser skilled workers are thereby devalued. monitoring and control tasks are performed via cooperative and interactive technologies, networked objects and people. The demands on employees increase because they have to be considerably more flexible. people use systems. CPS is a tool to support decisionmaking. The dominant role of the qualified workers is maintained. 20 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

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22 What needs to be done to ensure that technical innovation can also lead to social progress? Sources: BMLFUW/Alexander Haiden;

23 Innovation 23 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

24 An innovation is the implementation of a new or significantly improved product (good or service), or process, a new marketing method, or a new organisational method in business practices, workplace organisation or external relations. OECD 2005 (Oslo Manual) 24 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

25 Invention Innovation Diffusion 25 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

26 Invention Social Innovation Diffusion 26 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

27 A social innovation is a targeted reconfiguration of social practices with the aim of better solving problems or satisfying needs than is possible on the basis of established practices (Howaldt et al. 2008) and thus makes a contribution to social progress. 27 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

28 28 Daniel Buhr picture alliance / dpa / Jan Woitas; Universität Tübingen

29 Innovative Capability iit Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

30 Human capital Complexity capital Innovative Capability Structural capital Relational capital iit Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

31 What does it take? 31 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

32 In the age of digitalisation, a society's ability to innovate starts with the digital infrastructure. This means fast internet, with blanket coverage. Learning and thinking in networked connections must also be activated. For innovation and labour market policy, this means both investing in innovations and promoting the ability to make use of them actively in the society (human capital). However, it also includes analysing and structuring the consequences of innovations in advance and with the involvement of potential users (structural capital). In this way, employees become the innovation drivers and not the driven. The idea here is to enable innovation through participation and thereby rely on open and social innovations (relationship capital), in particular in the care and health area. (Buhr et al. 2016) 32 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

33 Three points to start with. 1. we need to connect everyone in the world to the Internet (OECD 2016) 2. we need to modernize our (welfare)states by digitizing society, economy and governments (public services) 3. we need to invest in providing everyone with the digital skills necessary to use that access productively and to be able to foster open and social innovation 33 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

34 Three points to start with. 1. we need to connect everyone in the world to the Internet (OECD 2016) 2. we need to modernize our (welfare)states by digitizing society, economy and governments (public services) 3. we need to invest in providing everyone with the digital skills necessary to use that access productively and to be able to foster open and social innovation 34 Prof. Dr. Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

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36 WORLD INTERNET USAGE AND POPULATION STATISTICS JUNE 30, Update World Regions Population (2016 Est.) Population % of World Internet Users 30 June 2016 Penetration Rate (% Pop.) Growth Table % Users Asia 4,052,652, % 1,846,212, % 1,515.2% 50.2 % Europe 832,073, % 614,979, % 485.2% 16.7 % Latin America / Caribbean 626,119, % 384,751, % 2,029.4% 10.5 % Africa 1,185,529, % 340,783, % 7,448.8% 9.3 % North America 359,492, % 320,067, % 196.1% 8.7 % Middle East 246,700, % 141,489, % 4,207.4% 3.8 % Oceania / Australia 37,590, % 27,540, % 261.4% 0.8 % WORLD TOTAL 7,340,159, % 3,675,824, % 918.3% % NOTES: (1) Internet Usage and World Population Statistics updated as of June 30, (2) CLICK on each world region name for detailed regional usage information. (3) Demographic (Population) numbers are based on data from the US Census Bureau, Eurostats and from local census agencies. (4) Internet usage information comes from data published by Nielsen Online, by the International Telecommunications Union, by GfK, by local ICT Regulators and other reliable sources. (5) For definitions, disclaimers, navigation help and methodology, please refer to the Site Surfing Guide. (6) Information in this site may be cited, giving the due credit and placing a link to Copyright , Miniwatts Marketing Group. All rights reserved worldwide. 36 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

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39 Three points to start with. 1. we need to connect everyone in the world to the Internet (OECD 2016) 2. we need to modernize our (welfare)states by digitizing society, economy and governments (public services) 3. we need to invest in providing everyone with the digital skills necessary to use that access productively and to be able to foster open and social innovation 39 Prof. Dr. Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

40 Innovation processes have to result in social progress. (Andersson et al. 2016) 40 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

41 How can we use digitalisation for modernising the welfare state? Source: one-europe.info 41 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

42 Welfare 4.0? 42 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

43 Digitalisation and Welfare State Two Dimensions: 1. Digital transformation is creating a new age of industrial production (i.e. Industrie 4.0) = external modernisation effect By altering production and disseminating information and communication technologies and automation, new demands arise for labour in general and for employees in particular (cf. Autor/Price 2013). The processing of these changes and challenges need to be supported by the welfare state. 43 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

44 Digitalisation and Welfare State Two Dimensions: 1. Digital transformation is creating a new age of industrial production (i.e. Industrie 4.0) = external modernisation effect By altering production and disseminating information and communication technologies and automation, new demands arise for labour in general and for employees in particular (cf. Autor/Price 2013). The processing of these changes and challenges need to be supported by the welfare state. 2. Digitalisation of the welfare state redistribution regime is causing internal modernisation effects (i.e. E-Health/TeleCare; Labour 4.0) Digitalised provision and administration of welfare services (Health, Care, Labour/Education, public services). 44 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

45 Modernisation and social inequality Source: Buhr et al 2016 Social standards are not downsides for economic growth, but rather form the foundation of innovative societies in which both producers and users benefit from faster, more successful and more customised innovations. (Andersson et al. 2016) 45 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

46 Three points to start with. 1. we need to connect everyone in the world to the Internet (OECD 2016) 2. we need to modernize our (welfare)states by digitizing society, economy and governments (public services) 3. we need to invest in providing everyone with the digital skills necessary to use that access productively and to be able to foster open and social innovation 46 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

47 Does the internet of things lead to exclusive societies? 47 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

48 Not necessarily, but it needs a lot of effort. Digitalisation requires an active state that not only provides a (digital) infrastructure, digital administration and comprehensive investments in research and education, but also ensures social and technical standards, general data protection and data security as well as protection of intellectual property rights and also knows how to use public procurement actively. For all these tasks, a welfare state is required that is able to proactively manage its responsibilities: one that makes use of the opportunities of digitalisation for its modernisation, and tries to better align and orchestrate its innovation policy i.e. with healthcare and labour market policies. If the Agenda 2030 is to be a project of international solidarity and of common economic and social progress, innovative processes for social progress must not remain limited to a handful of people, regions or nation states, but have to be promoted systematically and across the world. 48 Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

49 Can digitalisation bring about social equality? This is a vision we should continue to develop: by enhancing our welfare state in such a way that, on the one hand, it absorbs the risks of growing flexibilisation and, on the other hand, it offers us new ways of harnessing the opportunities of working without space and time constraints ways that ultimately bring about social progress. This could perhaps be the vision of Welfare 4.0. (Buhr et al 2016) 49 Daniel Buhr 2016 Universität Tübingen

50 Thank you. Prof. Dr. Daniel Buhr Professor for Policy Analysis and Political Economy Melanchthonstr. 36, Tübingen Telephone: Telefax: Daniel Buhr 2017 Universität Tübingen

51 More about demand? More about diffusion? More about society? Sources: BMLFUW/Alexander Haiden; one-europe.info