CAN WE AVOID A THIRD WORLD WAR AROUND 2010?

Transcription

1 CAN WE AVOID A THIRD WORLD WAR AROUND 2010?

2 CAN WE AVOID A THIRD WORLD WAR AROUND 2010? The Political, Social and Economic Past and Future of Humanity Peter Peeters

3 Peter Peeters 1979 Softcover reprint of the hardcover 1st edition Ali rights reserved. No part ofthis publication may be reproduced or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without permission First published 1979 by THE MACMILLAN PRESS LTD London and Basingstoke Associated companies in Delhi Dublin Hong Kong Johannesburg Lagos Melbourne.New York Singapore Tokyo British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Peeters, Peter Can we avoid a third world war around 2010? 1. Twentiethcentury-Forecasts 2. Twentyfirst century - Forecasts 3 Social evolution 1. Title CBI6I ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / This book is sold subject to the standard conditions of the.net Book Agreement

4 Contents List of Figures List of Tables Preface THE PROGRESS The Agricultural Age. The Industrial Age. Vlll X Xl 2 FOOD AND AGRICULTURE 15 Production Characteristics. The Human Diet. The Evolution of Agricultural Yields. Food and the Growing Population. 3 ENERGY 32 The Different Conventional Energy Sources. Production Cycles and Crises. Conversion Efficiencies and Energy Conservation. Recoverable Fossil Energy Resources. The Future of Conventional Energy Production. Nuclear Energy. Solar Energy. Hydrogen and the Storage of Electrical Energy. The Fast Breeder Reactor. Fusion. 4 POLLUTION The History of Pollution. The Various Pollutants. Pollution and Cancer. Global Aspects of Pollution. Future Evolutions. 6o v

5 Vl Contents 5 THE HISTORY OF ECONOMY The Pre-industrial Period. The Period of the Industrial Revolution. The Period of Liberal Economy. The Period of State Intervention. The Relationship between Progress and Growth. The Origins of Economic Crises. The Remedies. The Communist Economic System. Inflation. 6 POPULATION The Hunter-Gatherer Age. The Agricultural Age. The Industrial Age. The Population Characteristics of the Developed Countries. The Developing Countries. Migration and Racial Problems. Population Pressures and Crises. The Problems of Birth Control. The Future Population. I I 0 7 THE HUMAN SOCIETY The Way to Inequality. The Growth of Religion. The Impact of Development. The Development of the Secondary and Tertiary Sectors. Urbanisation and Modern Life. The Socialisation of Society. The Problems of Modern Society. The Transition in the Developing Countries. 8 WEAPONS, WARS AND POWER 168 The Growth of Aggression. Economic Growth and Wars. The Causes of War. The History of Weapons. Recent Developments. The Nuclear Arms Race. American-Soviet Rivalry. The Spread of Nuclear Weapons. 9 THE BOUNDLESS RESOURCES 193 The Production of Metals. The Notion of Reserves. Abundant and Scarce Metals. Substitution. Recycling. Environmental Implications. Metal Consumption and Incomes. Are there Limitations?

6 Contents 10 THE ECONOMIC TRANSITION The Turning-point. The Western Model. The Spread of Technology. The North-South Relationships. The New Economic Order. The Role of Education. The Economic Future of the Oil Countries. The Rise of a New Giant. The Further Progress of the Richer Nations. The Centrally-planned Economies. The Economy of the Developing World. The Economic Period from I977 to The Energy Perspectives. Towards Stabilisation. VII 207 II THE POLITICAL FUTURE The Soviet Society. The Weakening of Domination. The Dismantling of White Hegemony. Chinese Policy. The Developing World up to the Year Towards World War or World Survival? Index 259

7 List of Figures I. I Main inventions during the Agricultural Age 1.2 Time elapsed between discovery and general application 7 of inventions I2 1.3 Evolution of average productivity I3 2. I Evolution of world cereal production I6 2.2 Evolution of average cereal yields World's wheat reserves Inverse of world cereal production Predicted evolution of daily per capita caloric intake in China Possible evolution of daily per capita caloric intake in South East Asia 3I 3 I Evolution of world total energy production, 3 2 I85D-I972 Inverseofworld total energy production, 35 I85D-I Inverse of world total energy production, I I Inverse of world total Gross National Product, I85o-Ig3o World total annual metal ore production, Igio-73 go 5 3 Inverse of world total metal ore production 9I 5 4 Evolution of US cost ofliving index, IgiD Inverse of nominal per capita income in the USA I Expectation inflation I08 Vlll

8 List of Figures lx 6.I Possible evolution of annual fractional population growth I I Age structure of a natural population I I Mortality by age I2I 6.4 Evolution offertility in the Western world I Evolution of annual birth and death rates in the Western world I Evolution of life expectancy in the Western world I Evolution of world population I Annual fractional growth of world population, I85o-I975 I3I 6.9 Inverse of world population, I 85o-2050 I33 6.IO Annual fractional growth of world population, I30Q-2IOO I42 7. I Urban population as a fraction of the total I Evolution of average working week I6o 8.I Actual and desired European population, I65o-I920 I Inverse of the European population, I 65o-I 920 I Evolution of inverse of fractional losses of European population due to war I 8I 8.4 Evolution of the number of nuclear warheads I87 9 I Evolution of the average grade of mined copper ore I Relationship between metal consumption and income 204 IO. I Relationship between literacy and per capita income 2I6 I0.2 Utilisation of annual productivity increase in the leading industrial nations 230 I0.3 Relationship between annual fractional increase in GNP and per capita income, I I 10.4 Inverse of world total GNP, I I0.5 Evolution of work and leisure, I975-2IOO 240

9 List of Tables 2. I Arable land and population density 29 3 I Efficiency of energy conversion Proved fossil reserves per region in I975 4I 5 I Duration of the major economic periods and their different phases 97 6.I Historical evolution of population I Population per region in I970 I Future population by region I43 7. I Evolution of income distribution I6I 8. I Evolution of weaponry I8o 9 I Production and occurrence of metals I98 I 0. I Evolution of income per region, I I0.2 Energy perspectives, I o 10.3 Energy consumption and efficiency of use per 235 regwn 237 X

10 Preface When I set out to write this book in the beginning of 1975, I felt very pessimistic about humanity and its prospects for survival. In fact few of the books and articles published on the subject depicted more than a bleak future. Yet, as my knowledge of the matter developed, I began to see more clearly the persistent regularity which characterises evolution and I was finally convinced that the understanding of any human activity would not be possible if it were not set against the historical background of all human activity. Seen in this broad context, the laws of evolution became clear. They permitted a much more scientific analysis of the actual world situation and finally led me to predict a moderately optimistic future. On the other hand this gradual understanding has also forced me to embark upon the description of subjects on which I can hardly be called a specialist and obliged me to rewrite most of the chapters. On many occasions the volume of the book has only permitted me to sketch a general outline of the subject where a detailed study would have revealed many interesting and varied aspects; but I believe that I have reached my main aim, which was to convey an understanding of the evolution and history of mankind. I do not think it necessary to give a list of the many hundreds of specialised scientific articles which I have consulted: the data mainly comes from the last few years' issues of the New Scientist, Science and Scientific American and from the yearbooks XI

11 Xll Preface of the Encyclopaedia Britannica, and should therefore be easily available to any reader who wishes to acquire a more detailed knowledge. The realisation of this work has absorbed most of my evenings, weekends and holidays during the last three years and I would have found it difficult to sustain the effort had it not been for the company and encouragement of my wonderful friend Claire van Velsen. I cannot possibly express in words my appreciation of her presence and constant help, which have greatly contributed to making this book what it has finally become. I am also very grateful to Mary Fearnley-Sander, who has been so kind as to proof-read the text, and to Nigel Robson for his helpful comments. P.P. Brussels, 1978