Mid-term Adequacy Forecast July 2016

Transcription

1 Mid-term Adequacy Forecast July 2016

2 EU security of supply: the view from the Slovak Presidency Launch of ENTSO-E Mid-term Adequacy Forecast 2016 (MAF 2016) Brussels, 6 June 2016

3 Current situation Fragmented national Security of Supply policies EU Security of Supply challenges More interdependent national Power Systems More integrated Internal Electricity Market...a need for common/ coordinated approaches for Security of Supply at the EU/ regional level EU security of supply: the view from the Slovak Presidency Brussels, 6 June 2016

4 new EMD: Security of supply The Energy Union: ensure energy supply security and solidarity A European dimension to security of supply Promoting Regional Cooperation ENTSO-E regional and European (System) Adequacy Methodology EU security of supply: the view from the Slovak Presidency Brussels, 6 June 2016

5 View from the SK Presidency Further development of energy infrastructure (TYNDP, RGIPs, PCIs etc.) Responsibility for Generation Adequacy and Security of Electricity Supply stays at national/ Member States level System (Grid + Generation) Adequacy Assessments at regional/ pan-eu level ECG Recommendations for future improvement of Pan-European adequacy assessments (ECG Report, 2013) There is a need to improve the existing methodology used by ENTSO-E and this development should be done with appropriate consultation with all material stakeholders and endorsement from Member States. EU security of supply: the view from the Slovak Presidency Brussels, 6 June 2016

6 Thank you and welcome to Bratislava!

7 Market Design & adequacy assessments 6 July 2016 Energy

8 Market design why? Challenges to the electricity system Market System operation Short term - operations Long term - investments Generation adequacy assessments Adequacy targets Cross-border CMs Energy

9 Generation adequacy assessments Updated methodology Contribution of interconnection Intermittent RES Probabilistic approach Coverage and granularity Scope: EU Granularity: Member States / bidding zone Appropriate time horizon Up to 10 years Facilitate EU assessment of national adequacy concerns Energy

10 CONSISTENCY FROM NATIONAL, REGIONAL TO PAN-EUROPEAN LEVEL Sébastien Lepy, Chair of the System Development Committee, ENTSO-E Brussels, 6 July 2016

11 Click to edit Master title style ENTSO-E Adequacy methodology In a nutshell Market modeling based on probabilistics method Hourly resolution Cross-border contributions to a country s system adequacy Assessment about 'need for flexibility' Demand, renewable production variation LOLE/ ENS/ RES curtailments, capacity factors Page 2

12 Role of ENTSO-E methodology & Pan-EU assessments Consistent Europewide, regional and national adequacy assessments ENTSO-E s adequacy assessment methodology and standards to be used by MS to guide their decisions on capacity mechanisms, taking into account their national specificities Regional adequacy assessment as a basis for regional measures to ensure security of supply, e.g. regional market design adaptations National adequacy assessments would be used as a basis for local decisions and market design adaptations to ensure that energy policy objectives are met Common adequacy standards and coordinated levels A framework to express national SoS targets on the basis of commonly agreed adequacy standards (e.g. LOLE) at regional or pan-european level Standard levels to be nationally set but within a coordinated regional approach. Subsidiarity in defining specific policy measures (e.g. Capacity Mechanisms) necessary to fulfil these standards by MS No radical change of SoS governance framework, but closer cooperation Need to clarify roles and responsibilities of MS, NRAs, TSOs Need of transparent, robust and (technically & politically) coordinated solutions, especially for managing simultaneous scarcity situations

13 ACER on system adequacy TITRE Brussels, 06 June

14 ACER on system adequacy As required by Reg (EU) 714/2009, Article 8(3)&(4) and Article 9(1), ENTSO-E shall adopt and the Agency shall monitor both seasonal and mid/long term adequacy outlooks. The mid/long term adequacy outlooks shall cover the assessment of adequacy for the next five-year period as well as for the period between five and 15 years from the date of that outlook (Reg (EU) 714/2009, Article 8(4)).

15 ACER on system adequacy In view of the Agency, the adequacy outlooks should: Provide insight to stakeholders on how probable inadequacy is; Show the effects inadequacy might have on the market; Assess the foreseen changes of the system and their possible impact on the stability of supply (e.g. RES integration)? ENTSO-E should strive to go beyond the basic regulatory requirements, producing comprehensive, structured, understandable documents, providing all relevant information an inquisitive stakeholder might need.

16 Thank you for your Thank you for your attention! attention