Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems. Second Edition

Transcription

1 Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems Second Edition

2 Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems Second Edition Roy Billinton University of Saskatchewan College of Engineering Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, Canada and Ronald N. Allan University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology Manchester, England Springer Science+ Business Media, LLC

3 Llbrary of Congress Catalogl~g-ln-Publlcatlon Data Bi 11 inton, Roy. Reliability evaluation of power systems / Roy Billinton and Ronald N. Allan. -- 2nd ed. p. cm. 1ncludes bibliographical references and index. 1. Electric power systems--reliability. (Ronald Norman) 11. Title. TK1010.B dc20 1. Allan, Ronald N C1P ISBN ISBN (ebook) DOI / Roy Billinton and Ronald N. Allan First published in England by Pitman Books Limited rg 1996 Springer Science+Business Media New York Originally published by Plenum Press, New York in Softcover reprint of the hardcover 2nd edition All rights reserved No part of this book may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, microfilming, recording, or otherwise, without written permission from the Publisher

4 Preface to the first edition This book is a seque1 to Reliability Evaluation of Engineering Systems: Concepts and Techniques, written by the same authors and published by Pitman Books in January * As a sequel, this book is intended to be considered and read as the second oftwo volumes rather than as a text that stands on its own. For this reason, readers who are not familiar with basic reliability modelling and evaluation should either first read the companion volume or, at least, read the two volumes side by side. Those who are already familiar with the basic concepts and only require an extension of their knowledge into the power system problem area should be able to understand the present text with little or no reference to the earlier work. In order to assist readers, the present book refers frequently to the first volume at relevant points, citing it simply as Engineering Systems. Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems has evolved from our deep interest in education and our long-standing involvement in quantitative reliability evaluation and application of probability techniques to power system problems. It could not have been written, however, without the active involvement of many students in our respective research programs. There have been too many to mention individually hut most are recorded within the references at the ends of chapters. The preparation ofthis volume has also been greatly assisted by our involvement with the IEEE Subcommittee on the Application ofprobability Methods, lee Committees, the Canadian Electrical Association and other organizations, as weil as the many colleagues and other individuals with whom we have been involved. Finally, we would like to record our gratitude to all the typists who helped in the preparation ofthe manuscript and, above all, to our respective wives, Joyce and Diane, for all their help and encouragement. Roy Billinton RonAIlan *Second edition published by Plenum Press in v

5 Preface to the second edition We are both very pleased with the way the first edition has been received in academic and, particularly, industrial circles. We have received many commendations for not only the content but also our style and manner of presentation. This se co nd edition has evolved after considerable usage ofthe first edition by ourselves and in response to suggestions made by other users of the book. We believe the extensions will ensure that the book retains its position of being the premier teaching text on power system reliability. We have had regular discussions with our present publishers and it is a pleasure to know that they have sufficient confidence in us and in the concept of the book to have encouraged us to produce this second edition. As a background to this new edition, it is worth commenting a little on its recent chequered history. The first edition was initially published by Pitman, a United Kingdom company; the marketing rights for North America and Japan were vested in Plenum Publishing of New York. Pitman subsequently merged with Longman, following wh ich, complete publishing and marketing rights were eventually transferred to Plenum, our current publishers. Since then we have deeply appreciated the constant interest and commitment shown by Plenum, and in particular Mr. L. S. Marchand. His encouragement has ensured that the present project has been transformed from conceptual ideas into the final product. We have both used the first edition as the text in our own teaching programs and in a number of extramural courses which we have given in various places. Over the last decade since its publication, many changes have occurred in the development of techniques and their application to real problems, as weh as the structure, planning, and operation of real power systems due to changing ownership, regulation, and access. These developments, together with our own teaching experience and the feedback from other sources, highlighted several areas which needed reviewing, updating, and extending. We have attempted to accommodate these new ideas without disturbing the general concept, structure, and style of the original text. We have addressed the following specific points: Acomplete rewrite ofthe general introduction (Chapter I) to reflect the changing scenes in power systems that have occurred since we wrote the first edition. vii

6 viii Preface to the second edition Inclusion of a chapter on Monte Carlo simulation; the previous edition concentrated only on analytical techniques, but the simulation approach has become much more useful in recent times, mainly as a result ofthe great improvement in computers. Inclusion of a chapter on reliability economics that addresses the developing and very important area of reliability cost and reliability worth. This is proving to be of growing interest in planning, operation, and asset management. We hope that these changes will be received as a positive step forward and that the confidence placed in us by our publishers is weil founded. Roy Billinton RonAllan

7 Contents 1 Introduction Background 1.2 Changing scenario Probabilistic reliability criteria Statistical and probabilistic measures Absolute and relative measures Methods of assessment Concepts of adequacy and security System analysis Reliability cost and reliability worth Concepts of data Conc\uding comments References 16 2 Generating capacity---basic probability methods Introduction The generation system model Generating unit unavailability Capacity outage probability tables Comparison of deterministic and probabilistic criteria A recursive algorithm for capacity model building Recursive algorithm for unit removal Alternative model-building techniques Loss ofload indices Concepts and evaluation techniques ix

8 x Contents Numerica1 examp1es Equiva1ent forced outage rate Capacity expansion analysis Evaluation techniques Perturbation effects Scheduled outages Evaluation methods on period bases Load forecast uncertainty Forced outage rate uncertainty Exact method Approximate method App1ication LOLE computation Additional considerations Loss of energy indices Evaluation of energy indices Expected energy not supplied Energy-limited systems Practical system studies Conclusions Problems References 79 3 Generating capacity-frequency and duration method Introduction The generation model Fundamental development Recursive algorithm for capacity model building System risk indices Individual state load model Cumulative state load model Practical system studies 105

9 Contents xi 3.4.l Base case study System expansion studies Load forecast uncertainty Conclusions Problems 3.7 References Interconnected systems Introduction Probability array method in two interconnected systems l Concepts Evaluation techniques Equivalent assisting unit approach to two interconnected systems Factors affecting the emergency assistance available through the interconnections Introduction Effect oftie capacity Effect oftie line reliability Effect ofnumber oftie lines Effect oftie-capacity uncertainty Effect of interconnection agreements Effect ofload forecast uncertainty Variable reserve versus maximum peak load reserve Reliability evaluation in three interconnected systems Direct assistance from two systems Indirect assistance from two systems Multi-connected systems Frequency and duration approach Concepts Applications Period analysis 145

10 xii Contents 4.9 Conclusions Problems References Operating reserve General concepts PJMmethod Concepts Outage replacement rate (ORR) Generation model Unit commitment risk Extensions to PJM method Load forecast uncertainty Derated (partial output) states Modified PJM method Concepts Area risk curves Modelling rapid start units Modelling hot reserve units Unit commitment risk Numerical examples Postponable outages Concepts Modelling postponable outages Unit commitment risk Security function approach Concepts Security function model Response risk Concepts Evaluation techniques Effect of distributing spinning reserve Effect ofhydro-electric units 175

11 Contents xiii Effect of rapid start units Interconnected systems Conc1usions 5.10 Problems 5.11 References Composite generation and transmission systems Introduction Radial configurations Conditional probability approach Network configurations State selection Concepts Application System and load point indices Concepts Numerical evaluation Application to practica1 systems Data requirements for composite system reliability evaluation Concepts Deterministic data Stochastic data Independent outages Dependent outages Common mode outages Station originated outages Conc1usions Problems References Distribution systems--basic techniques and radial networks Introduction 220

12 xiv Contents 7.2 Evaluation techniques Additional interruption indices Concepts Customer-orientated indices Load- and energy-orientated indices System performance System prediction Application to radial systems Effect of lateral distributor protection Effect of disconnects Effect ofprotection failures Effect of transferring loads No restrictions on transfer Transfer restrictions Probability distributions of reliability indices Concepts Failure rate Restoration times Conc1usions Problems References Distribution systems--parallel and meshed networks Introduction Basic evaluation techniques State space diagrams Approximate methods Network reduction method Failure modes and effects analysis Inc1usion ofbusbar failures Inc1usion of scheduled maintenance General concepts 257

13 Contents xv Evaluation techniques Coordinated and uncoordinated maintenance Numerical example Temporary and transient failures Concepts Evaluation techniques Numerical example 8.6 Inclusion ofweather effects Concepts Weather state modelling Failure rates in a two-state weather model Evaluation methods Overlapping forced outages Forced outage overlapping maintenance Numerical examples Application to complex systems Common mode failures Evaluation techniques Application and numerical examples Common mode failures and weather effects Evaluation techniques Sensitivity analysis Inclusion ofbreaker failures Simplest breaker model Failure modes of a breaker Modelling assumptions Simplified breaker models Numerical example Conclusions Problems References 301

14 xvi Contents 9 Distribution systems - extended techniques Introduction Totalloss of continuity (TLOC) Partialloss of continuity (PLOC) Selecting outage combinations PLOC criteria Alleviation ofnetwork violations Evaluation of PLOC indices Extended load-duration curve Numerical example Effect of transferable loads General concepts Transferable load modelling Evaluation techniques Numerical example Economic considerations General concepts Outage costs Conclusions Problems References Substations and switching stations Introduction Effect of short circuits and breaker operation Concepts Logistics Numerical examples Operating and failure states of system components Open and short circuit failures Open circuits and inadvertent opening ofbreakers Short circuits 333

15 Contents xvii Numerical example Active and passive failures General concepts Effect offailure mode Simulation offailure modes Evaluation ofreliability indices Malfunction ofnormally closed breakers General concepts Numerical example Deduction and evaluation Numerical analysis oftypical substation Malfunction of alternative supplies Malfunction ofnormally open breakers Failures in alternative supplies Conclusions Problems References Plant and station availability Generating plant availability Concepts Generating units Including effect of station trans formers Derated states and auxiliary systems Concepts Modelling derated states Allocation and effect of spares Concepts Review of modelling techniques Numerical examples Protection systems Concepts 374

16 xviii Contents Evaluation techniques and system modelling Evaluation offailure to operate Evaluation of inadvertent operation HVDC systems Concepts Typical HVDC schemes Rectifier/inverter bridges Bridge equivalents Converter stations Transmission links and filters Composite HVDC link Numerical examples Conc1usions Problems References Applications of Monte Carlo simulation Introduction Types ofsimulation Concepts of simulation Random numbers Simulation output Application to generation capacity reliability evaluation Introduction Modelling concepts LOLE assessment with nonchronologicalload LOLE assessment with chronologicalload Reliability assessment with nonchronologicalload Reliability assessment with chronologicalload Application to composite generation and transmission systems Introduction 422

17 Contents xix Modelling concepts Numerical applications Extensions to basic approach Application to distribution systems Introduction Modelling concepts Numerical examples for radial networks Numerical examples for meshed (parallel) networks Extensions to the basic approach Conc1usions Problems References Evaluation of reliability worth Introduction Implicitlexplicit evaluation of reliability worth Customer interruption cost evaluation Basic evaluation approaches Cost of interruption surveys Considerations Cost valuation methods Customer damage functions Concepts Reliability worth assessment at HLI Reliability worth assessment at HLII Reliability worth assessment in the distribution functional zone Station reliability worth assessment Conclusions References 473

18 xx Contents 14 Epilogue 476 Appendix I Definitions 478 Appendix 2 Analysis ofthe IEEE Reliability Test System 481 A2.1 Introduction 481 A2.2 IEEE-RTS 481 A2.3 IEEE-RTS results 484 A2.3.1 Single system 484 A2.3.2 Interconnected systems 486 A2.3.3 Frequency and duration approach 486 A2.4 Conclusion 490 A2S References 490 Appendix 3 Third-order equations for overlapping events 491 A3.1 Introduction 491 A3.2 Symbols 491 A3.3 Temporary/transient failure overlapping two pennanent failures 492 A3.4 Temporary/transient failure overlapping a pennanent and a maintenance outage 493 A3.5 Common mode failures 495 A3.5.1 All three components may suff er a common mode failure 495 A3.5.2 Only two components may suff er a common mode failure 495 A3.6 Adverse weather effects 496 A3.7 Common mode failures and adverse weather effects 499 A3.7.1 Repair is possible in adverse weather 499 A3.7.2 Repair is not done during adverse weather 499 Solutions to problems 500 Index 509