Mission Report January 2011

Transcription

1 ASSESSMENT OF THE PREPARATION OF THE CENSUS OF BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Mission Report January 2011 Jean-Michel Durr Expert Name of Peer assessment of the Population and Housing Census in Mission: Bosnia and Herzegovina Name of Action: Mission to Sarajevo Banja Luka Name of Expert: Jean-Michel Durr Time: January 2011 Venue: Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Sarajevo) Federal Office of Statistics of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Sarajevo) Institute of Statistics of Republika Srpska (Banja Luka) 1

2 Table of Contents List of acronyms... 3 I. Agenda... 4 II. Introduction and Background... 4 III. Meeting with Mr. Zdenko Milinović, Director of the Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina.. 5 IV. Meeting with the Federal Administration for Geodetic and Real Property Affairs... 5 V. Meeting with Ms. Dijana Sikima, EU delegation... 6 VI. Meeting with Mr. Djurdjevic, Director and Ms. Čolović, Census Manager of the Federal Office of Statistics of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina... 7 VII. Meeting with the census team of the Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina... 8 VIII. Meeting with Ms. Radmila Čičković, Director of the Institute of Statistics of Republika Srpska IX. Meeting with the Census team of the Institute of Statistics of Republika Srpska X. Meeting with the Administration for Geodetic and Real Property Affairs of Republika Srpska XI. Main Findings XII. Persons met XIII. Terms of reference

3 List of acronyms BiH EA EU EUPHC Census GIS ICR IT Bosnia and Herzegovina Enumeration area European Union European Union Assistance for the 2011 BiH Population and Housing Geographic Information System Intelligent Character Recognition Information Technology 3

4 I. Agenda Date Meeting Agenda 24 January, Day 1 - Meeting with the Director of the Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina - Meeting with the Federal Administration for Geodetic and Real Property Affairs - Meeting with the EU delegation - Meeting with the Director and the Census Manager of the Federal Office of Statistics of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina 25 January, Day 2 - Meeting with the census team of the Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina 26 January, Day 3 - Meeting with the Director of the Institute of Statistics of Republika Srpska - Meeting with the Census team of the Institute of Statistics of Republika Srpska - Meeting with the Administration for Geodetic and Real Property Affairs of Republika Srpska II. Introduction and Background 1. Bosnia and Herzegovina planned to conduct a Population and Housing Census in April 2011, but the census law has not yet been adopted for lack of political consensus. Several assistance projects depend on the adoption of the census law before they can start. Therefore, it was necessary to know what are the realistic scenarios regarding the timing of census and the real implementation of the census, once the census law is adopted. The pilot census has been put on hold until the census law is adopted. 2. The objective of the mission was to assess the preparations of the population and housing census in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in order to give a best estimate for the amount of time needed to prepare and conduct a census once the census law has been passed. The preparations in the statistical offices were investigated, with a view to estimate what still has to be done from the point when the census law is adopted until a census can be conducted. 4

5 III. Meeting with Mr Zdenko Milinović, Director of the Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina 3. Mr Milinović presented the administrative and statistical organization of the country and the role of the three institutions. He described the internal organization of the Agency regarding the preparation of the census as well as the coordination mechanisms with the other institutions, in particular the role of the workings groups. He explained that for the moment, there is no census manager in the Agency. 4. The main concerns expressed by the Director relate to the adoption of the law, the availability of the budget and the achievement of the cartographic phase. On the other hand, he considered that most of the methodological preparation had been done, including a final version of the questionnaire. He stressed the lack of experience in the three institutions in terms of census design, as the country did not conduct a census since 20 years. He deplored that the EU had conditioned its support to the prior adoption of the census law, explaining that this will delay the preparation of the census once the law is voted. 5. In terms of fieldwork, he noted that it could be a problem to find 20,000 enumerators in the field. He also explained that enumerators should represent the ethnic distribution in each area. According to the article 26 of the draft law the proportion of enumerators of each ethnic group for the territory of a municipality/town, shall be at least, half of the percentage of this group in the population of the municipality/town at the last Population Census.. 6. Finally, the Director described the special operation for counting the diaspora: a questionnaire will be available on the web. People living abroad and willing to be included in the operation will download the questionnaire, fill it in and send it to the Agency by mail. IV. Meeting with the Federal Administration for Geodetic and Real Property Affairs 7. The representative of the Federal Administration for Geodetic and Real Property Affairs explained that there was no State level body for Geodetic Affairs in the country as for Statistics. The Federal Administration was appointed by the government to prepare the census cartography in the territory of the Federation. An Expert Group, including experts from urban planning and from the three statistical institutions of the country was established in The Expert Group prepared the methodology for establishing the census cartography of the country and the documentation. 8. The Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina is divided into 10 cantons, the cantons are divided into 79 municipalities. 9. The methodology for carrying out the census cartography is the following: a. Scanning of existing documentation, such as cadastre plans: achieved, in the phase of being reviewed; b. Production of digitial orthophotos by a private company: achieved in ; 5

6 c. Vectorization of spatial unit borders: around 40% of the territory is vectorized, more specifically industrial and economically relevant areas, in major cities. The achievement of this phase is conditioned to the availability of the corresponding funds. However, it is noted that there is a need to precise the borders with the other entities of the country; d. Delineation of the enumeration areas (EAs): enumeration areas will comprise around 100 households. The Federal Office of Statistics will delineate the EAs. This phase has not started yet. A private company will vectorize the borders of the EAs for integration of the Geographical Information System (GIS). The call for tender should be published soon, as it does not depend on the adoption of the law. The procurement process should last around 3 months before the signature of the contract. Then, it is estimated that the operation will last 6 months. The budget for this operation is around 1 million Euros, financed by the government of the Federation; e. The Federal Office of Statistics will determine Statistical Areas for dissemination purpose. Each statistical area will be a group of enumeration areas. 10. The Federal Office of Statistics will have access to the GIS for dissemination. V. Meeting with Ms Dijana Sikima, EU delegation 11. Ms. Sikima presented the support of the EU to the preparation of the population and housing census. A 0.5 million Euros technical assistance project was financed to design the methodology and the questionnaire. This project was successfully achieved and produced significant documentation. Another project is planned to finance equipment for census data processing, for around 2 million Euros. A procurement procedure was launched but the signature of the contract is conditioned to the adoption of the census law. She explained that a compromise was reached to set up a processing centre in East Sarajevo, in the territory of Republika Srpspka. 12. She highlighted that since the recent elections, a new government has not been formed yet, and therefore it is not possible to foresee when the census law will be adopted. The main issue regarding the law is the article 48, on the use of data on the ethnic structure of population. This article stipulates that the use of data on ethnic structure of the population from 1991 population census will be valid even after this census for the purpose of forming governments at all levels in Bosnia and Herzegovina, until full implementation of the Annex VII of the Dayton Peace Agreement, that is to say when all displaced persons will have returned to their original place. 13. Finally, she mentioned that funds were allocated for an international monitoring operation, contracted to the Council of Europe. 6

7 VI. Meeting with Mr Djurdjevic, Director and Ms Čolović, Census Manager of the Federal Office of Statistics of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina 14. The Director explained that the Federal Office of Statistics employs 184 persons, including 84 in the 10 cantonal offices. For the preparation of the census, a temporary census bureau was established. The Head of the Population and Social Statistics Sector is responsible for the census. 15. Around 25 people from the Office are members of the working groups, such as methodology, cartography, data processing, legislation, quality control, dissemination, and administrative affairs. But only 2 or 3 persons have census experience from The Director should retire in a couple of months, during the census preparation, but may be asked to stay until the census takes place. 17. In terms of preparations, the first step was to participate in the working groups with the Agency for Statistics and the Institute of Statistics of Republika Srpska. The questionnaires were designed and methodology defined. Training material was not yet prepared. A plan of activity was elaborated. 18. A pilot census was planned for October 2010, but Eurostat advised not to carry it out in the absence of law. A pilot census is still planned, with two options, 33 EAs in the Federation or only Communication strategy was not defined at the Federation level because it should be the responsibility of the Agency. 20. About the role of municipalities during the enumeration: municipalities will establish a municipal commission (from 5 to 8 members according to size of the municipality). Municipal commissions will select and appoint the enumerators, provide space, premises for training, and transportation of the forms. Enumerators report to the municipal commission. The Statistical Office of the Federation will train the members of the municipal census commission, and then those members will train the enumerators. The control of the municipal commission will be made through the participation of one representative of the Statistical Office in the commission. The census results will be compared to the population estimates produced by the Statistical Office annually to avoid risks of influence of the municipality on the results. There will be around 13,000 EAs for the Federation, out of a total of 20,000 for the country. 21. The Statistical Office of the Federation will have access to the census database but dissemination will be made at state level by the Agency. 22. According to the Director, the most critical point in the preparation of the census is cartography, as well as some organizational issues. The Director pointed out the risk that the new discussion of the law would reopen the discussion on the questionnaire. Finally, he expressed the opinion that the conduct of the census next year would be a more realistic scenario. 7

8 VII. Meeting with the census team of the Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina 23. A temporary census bureau was established in the Agency a few months ago with two coordinators. One of them, the Chief of population statistics and registers department participated in censuses in 1981 and The working group in charge of methodology and organisation of the census was established in 2006 with participation of the three statistical institutions. The group spent a long time to study documentation, in particular to analyse the practice of other European countries. A methodology document was drafted with a consultant including the final version of the forms, methodology and instructions for the pilot census. 25. Questionnaires were developed in line with the EU recommendations, and include all core topics and some of the non-core topics. International standards and definitions are put in the draft law. 26. A first budget was elaborated in 2006 with a consultant and later revised in The Agency is currently preparing a third version. The total amount is around 22 million Euros, which represents around 5.5 Euros/per capita, in line with the European countries. The budget will be financed by the State but the contribution of donors is sought. The EU will finance equipment for data processing for an amount of 2 million Euros. Budget is centralized and delegated to the entities. 27. No procurement procedure has been launched and no plan for it was elaborated. Each of the departments will develop their technical specifications. It is noted that the Agency is experienced in local tenders but not international. 28. A conceptual framework for quality assurance was elaborated and adopted. A more detailed document is in preparation. The intention is to cover the three major phases of the census: enumeration, data processing and dissemination. The framework focuses on the three following dimensions: usefulness, objectivity and integrity. Each respective department will develop specific implementation: for example, for supervision during enumeration. 29. Regarding communication and outreach, a draft strategy was prepared with the help of a consultant after one meeting, but not really developed. The preparation of communication materials, such as TV Spots, will be outsourced. 30. The enumeration will be organized as follows. The territory of the country will be divided in approximately 20,000 enumeration areas (EAs), each of them comprising around 80 to 100 households. One enumerator will be in charge of one EA. 2,000 municipal instructors will supervise the enumerators (1 for 10). 150 state instructors, from the three statistical institutions will supervise the enumeration in the 142 municipalities of the country. In each municipality, a municipal commission will select and appoint enumerators, according to the criteria set by statistical institution. 31. Three levels of training are considered: the state instructors will be trained by the Agency, then the state instructors will train municipal instructors and commissions; then municipal instructors will train the enumerators. The State instructor will monitor training. A four-day training is planned for every level. Material for training is not yet prepared. 32. Enumeration materials were developed for the pilot census and need to be updated. 8

9 33. Regarding logistics, a system of label for boxes, including a barcode, will be used to track the questionnaires. A web based monitoring system will also be developed to exchange information about human resources (staff and responsibilities), and activities (for example logistics), as well as to collect aggregate data for each EA to publish first results as soon as the enumeration is completed. 34. A Post Enumeration Survey (PES) is planned to be conducted after the enumeration. A first draft of methodology was prepared with a consultant. The PES will be conducted under the responsibility of the agency, but the Agency will work in collaboration with the entities. The sample size will be 200 EAs and the sample will be designed to produce results in six strata: three entities and urban/rural. The methodology is to be completed, in particular the questionnaire and the matching methodology. 35. The methodology for cartography was developed by a common working group of the three entities of the country. Since, the entities have developed their own methodology, but they are quite identical. As there is no geodetic administration at state level, the Ministry of Civil Affairs provides support to coordinate the efforts of geodetic and statistical institutions in the entities. The ministry made recommendations to set up a Geographic Information System at the State level but may not be followed. 36. The Statistical Agency is only responsible for the cartography of Brčko district. All activities were completed for the district: the delineation of the 412 EAs was updated and the borders are vectorized to the level of EA. A Geographic Information System database was updated for the district. The maps are already prepared and printed. 37. Data processing: the questionnaires will be captured using optical technology: scanning and Intelligent Character Recognition (ICR). The Agency has no experience in this technology but a specialized company will be contracted out to provide equipment and set up the process. The EU will finance this operation (2 million Euros). The tender procedure was launched, and the deadline to receive the bids is the 31 March, then one month will be used to choose the company. However, the procedure stipulates that the contract cannot be signed until the census law is adopted. Once the contract is signed, 7 to 8 months are necessary to set up the system. 38. Data processing operations will be conducted centrally in a processing centre situated in East Sarajevo, in Republika Srpska. The three statistical institutions will provide staff for the data processing phase. 70 persons will work in two shifts. A disaster and recovery system will be set up in Brcko district. 39. Coding and editing will be carried out using a Canadian software for automatic coding by text recognition. The specifications for the editing phase have not been developed yet. 40. The census database of individual records will be replicated in the three entities. At the end of the data processing phase, a master database for dissemination will be produced. The tabulation will be made by the dissemination Department, using SPSS and R and maybe PC- Axis. 41. No detailed plan was prepared for dissemination, only a set of standard tables. Some problems are expected with the entities regarding the dissemination of their data. 42. In conclusion, according to the Agency, 10 to 12 months are still needed to prepare the census. In particular, the Agency Census team pointed out the need to carry out a pilot census to test the complete process. 9

10 VIII. Meeting with Ms Radmila Čičković, Director of the Institute of Statistics of Republika Srpska 43. The Director explained that 125 employees work in the Institute of Statistics of Republika Srpska. A temporary census bureau was established with key persons as members. Around 30 people are working on the census preparations. The Institute has little experience in census, but the staff is highly motivated and has followed intensive training since two years, in seminars, workshops and reading of documentation. 44. She reminded the development regarding the adoption of the census law and mentioned that Republika Srpska has adopted its own census law, giving authority to the Institute of Statistics to conduct the census in its territory. Anyhow, the decision to undertake the census independently would be a political decision, not of the Office. 45. Cartography is a concern in the entity. The Institute of Statistics organized a working group with the geodetic administration. To address the problem of lack of address system in many municipalities, a meeting with the mayors was organized two months ago. There are 62 municipalities, and 2 independent cities in the Republika Srpska. It was decided to set up a joint team composed of municipality representatives to speed up the process. Municipalities are aware of their obligations but frequently lack funds. 46. The Director considers that the collaboration on technical issues with the other statistical institutions is good. 47. The main points of concerns of the Director are the following: a. Cartography, as there is still a lot to do. b. Data processing: the institute is not completely in agreement with the specifications as published in the tender document. The flow process has not been finalized and agreed and the issue of logical controls to reduce duplication and errors is pending. c. Inter-institutions organization: the decision process is not clear, for example, who can take decision in case some issues remain unsolved? d. The position of the EU to condition the release of Technical Assistance to the adoption of the census law will add delays to the preparation. 48. On the other hand, the Director expressed confidence in the public acceptance of the census. She pleaded for an external monitoring of the whole census process, not only the enumeration phase. 49. The Director considers that if the Geodetic Administration was able to release the cartographic data in April, the pilot census could be carried out in April and the census in November She also made this declaration in the local media. 10

11 IX. Meeting with the Census team of the Institute of Statistics of Republika Srpska 50. The census team described its participation in the different working groups at state level. Four persons are working on the methodology in the office. Now the team is fully knowledgeable in the recommendations and international practices and has good and constructive discussions with statisticians from other statistical institutes of BiH. 51. The team explained the role of the IPA project to provide technical assistance for the census. While the quality of the consultants was fully recognized, the team would have expected to be more engaged in the process, as the intention was to build capacity. For example, they mentioned that they were not being involved in the elaboration of logical controls. The last report of the EUPHC was sent recently for approval, by the office was not consulted before on some of the issues. 52. The pilot census should be conducted in order to test all phases of the census. In that regard, it is necessary to capture the data, in order to evaluate the results of the pilot census (non response, errors...). This point is to check with Agency if there is a data entry program for the pilot census. 53. The methodology for enumeration is ready to around 75%. Some points have to be completed, such as the enumeration of persons living abroad. The enumerator will enumerate present and absent persons. Later, the persons who don't meet the requirements of usual residence will be excluded from the counting of the population and their questionnaire put into a separate folder. No matching with the forms filled online abroad is expected. However, the Institute considers that the law precise clearly the definition of the usual resident population. 54. Regarding logistics, the Institute deplores that no strategy was developed, including security and confidentiality issues. 55. Communication strategy was drafted in a meeting in Sarajevo, and later presented to the Institute of Statistics of Republika Srpska. 56. In terms of data processing, the team considers that even being part of the working group, it was not sufficiently associated to the discussions and did have concerns about the status of the EUPHC document: is it recommendations to be discussed or decisions? For example, the monitoring system was not completely agreed. In particular, the Institute considers that according to the law, data should be made available for the Agency and the statistical institutes of the entities at the same time. In addition, the location of the disaster and recovery centre in district Brcko was neither discussed nor agreed, but was attached to the tender documentation. Specifications for coding and imputation must be developed by the working group. 57. A list of standard tables for dissemination was established but the Institute was not associated to the preparation. Dissemination will be made by the entities, but no discussion has started. 11

12 X. Meeting with the Administration for Geodetic and Real Property Affairs of Republika Srpska 58. The Administration for Geodetic of Republika Srpska considered that the methodology developed by the working group was considered not applicable and decided to develop its own methodology in compliance with national and international standards. 59. In January 2010, the government adopted unilaterally the register of settlements describing the borders with the Federation and decided that each housing unit should have a number visible and each street should have name and plates. Some of the municipalities had already completed the numbering but others did not due to lack of finance. 60. So far, the Administration developed the register of spatial units, scanned over documents (maps, descriptions...), vectorized 70% of cadastre plans and scanned the remaining ones, updated borders and coding of entities, vectorized the borders of municipalities and of 75% of the settlements (62 municipalities, 2462 settlements) of the 4235 statistical areas (90%) were also vectorized. 150 settlement maps were already printed. 61. Among the remaining tasks for the cartographic phase are the following: e. vectorization of 30% cadastre plans remaining; f. field work to update street names and illegal construction; g. digitization of updates; h. delineation of the EAs. One enumeration area comprises around 100 households in urban areas and 50 in rural; i. vectorization of EA borders; j. description for statistical and EA maps; k. printing of EAs maps (20,000 maps, 2 or 3 copies); l. printing of situation maps. 62. Considering the remaining tasks and the issue of street naming and numbering, the Administration for Geodetic Affairs expects realistically to achieve the census cartography in October XI. Main Findings 63. First and foremost, the political and administrative situation is complex and entails risks of inefficiency. There are three statistical entities in the country, the Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina at state level, and two institutes for statistics, Federal Office of Statistics of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and the Institute of Statistics of Republika Srpska. The coordinating role of the Agency does not seem to be clearly established and accepted, especially in Republika Srpska. The location of the Agency in Sarajevo in the same building as the Federal Office for Statistics of the Federation may add to the impression that the Agency is closer to the Federal Office than to the Institute of Statistics of the Republika Srpska. Cooperation between the three entities seems a bit difficult, but more due to the political environment than on a technical ground. Technicians of three entities have the same professional 12

13 culture and are usually able to resolve technical issues. In that regard, it is strongly recommended that the Agency build a solid management at the state level, in respect of the autonomy of the entities but emphasizing coordination and cooperation. 64. The experience of the three statistical institutions in population and housing census is quite limited. No census has been taken since twenty years, and very few people participated in the last census, and only in field operations. Significant technical assistance is needed to design and implement the next census. 65. The census law is still not adopted. The law has been voted by the House of Representatives but not by the House of the People. Since the last election, the government has not been established, blocking the process of adoption. The adoption of the law is a precondition to most of the preparation activities of the census. For example, census bureau in the statistical entities cannot be established, as well as census state and municipal commissions. Financial and technical assistance support from the EU will be released only after the census law is voted. 66. A law was voted in June in Republika Srpska to prepare and conduct a census under the responsibility of Institute for Statistics of the entity. This law could apply in case the census law is not adopted at the state level. However, it is not sure that the Institute for Statistics of Republika Srpska is able to collect and process the data without any external technical support. 67. A first budget was elaborated in 2006 with the help of a consultant and updated in The Agency is currently in the phase of preparing the third version. The total amount is estimated around 22 million Euros, which represent around 5.5 to 6 Euros per capita. This is in line with the average of similar European countries. The budget should be mainly provided by the state, but donors' support will be needed to complete. The current budget for 2011 was not adopted in the absence of government; only a temporary budget was allocated until the final budget is adopted. The draft census law makes provision for the total budget, but stipulates that a financial plan will be regulated by the special agreement of the respective ministers of finance of BiH, entities and the director of the Brcko District Finance Directorate, or Fiscal Council within 60 days from the day of the Law coming into force. 68. In terms of technical preparation, cartography is the most problematic issue, even not depending on the adoption of the census law. Firstly, the borders between the entities of the country are in many places unclear and need to be defined. In the Federation, a call for tender is about to be launched for the vectorization of the borders of geographical units. This operation should take at least six months after the signature of the contract. The Federal Institute will then delineate the enumeration areas, and the Federal Administration for Geodetic Affairs will integrate the borders of the EAs in the Geographical Information System to print the maps for the enumerators. Taking into consideration at minimum three months for the tender procedure, and considering the call for tender is launched very soon, the cartographic phase will take around 12 months in the Federation. And of course under the condition that the budget is voted and allows the call for tender. The situation is not very different in Republika Srpska. The Administration for Geodetic Affairs of the Republic has developed its own methodology, which may not be compatible with the methodology that was agreed at the state level. 70% of the cadastre plans have been vectorized, and borders with the Federation unilaterally defined. It remains to delineate and describe the enumeration areas (around ), to conduct some fieldwork to update street names and illegal construction and to print maps for each EA. The Office expects to finish realistically in October. Therefore, conducting the census earlier than in 9 to 12 months 13

14 would mean to use unfinished cartography with a high risk of omissions and duplications due to unclear delineation of the EAs. 69. The methodology was prepared with the help of consultants in the EUPHC programme. The project developed comprehensive documents describing the methodology and the tasks of the different categories of field workers. However, the enumeration instructions are to be finalized and manuals as well as enumeration documents must be prepared. Some of these documents were developed for the pilot census. In addition, training methodology and materials have not yet been developed. Two or three months should be needed to finalize all these materials for the pilot census. 70. Conducting a pilot census is highly recommended. No census was undertaken during 20 years and it is absolutely necessary to test the complete organization, methodology and procedures before the census. The pilot census should be conducted enough time before the census to have time to analyse the lessons learnt and implement the modifications. One year before the census is internationally recommended, and at least six months should elapse between the pilot census and the census enumeration. 71. Very little progress was achieved in terms of communication. A draft strategy was elaborated with the help of consultants but no action plan was developed. Some outreach activities should be started, in order to prepare a favourable ground for the census and the adoption of the census law. The strategy could be developed as well as the specifications of the call for tender in order to be ready when the law is adopted to launch the call for tender. 72. Data capture will use optical technology, outsourced to a private company that will provide the equipment and the process. The OCR technology will be used for the first time in the country for statistical operation. Staff from the three statistical institutions will carry out the manual tasks. Data processing specifications were drafted, but no agreement was formally obtained from the three institutions. In particular, the Institute of Statistics of Republika Srpska expressed reservations on the technical infrastructure, especially regarding access to the database and the location of the recovery centre in District Brcko. The tender procedure to acquire the equipment was launched by the EU, who finances the operation, but the signature of the contract is suspended until the adoption of the law. Eight months will be needed from the signature of the contract to set up the processing centre as operational. Here too, a pilot census is highly desirable. Even if the data processing process is not yet available at the moment of the pilot, data can be captured manually to analyse the results. But the questionnaires collected during the pilot census are critically needed to test and tune the optical data capture process. 73. Dissemination plan has not been prepared, except for a set of standard tables, that was not completely discussed and approved. Problems of exclusivity of dissemination are expected with the entities. There is a risk that the census results will be disseminated separately without consistency, which would seriously affect the quality of the dissemination at the country level. 74. What can be done before the law is adopted: a. The cartography will not be achieved before 9 to 12 months, if the budget is allocated on time to the procurement procedure; b. The enumeration and training materials can be prepared within 2 or 3 months, but may need to be updated if the law is amended; 14

15 c. The communication and outreach campaign can be prepared but not finalized (2-3 months minimum); 75. What needs to be done only once the law is adopted: d. Integration of the amendments to the law in the questionnaires and enumeration and training material (two weeks?); e. Carrying out the pilot census: 1 months final preparation, six months to integrate lessons learned and prepare final enumeration material; f. Finalization of the communication campaign: at least 2 months to print the publicity material if no modification due to the final law; (in parallel with the previous tasks); 76. In conclusion, once the law is voted, 8 to 9 months are needed to finalize the census preparations. But if the law is adopted now, at least 9 to 12 months are needed anyway to finalise the cartographic phase. If the law is voted after April, the enumeration cannot start before 8 to 9 months after the legal adoption. This estimation has of course to be updated regularly. 15

16 XII. Persons met Agency for Statistics of Bosnia and Herzegovina Federal Administration for Geodetic and Real Property Affairs EU delegation Ministry of Civil Affairs Federal Office of Statistics of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina Institute of Statistics of Republika Srpska Administration of Republika Srpska for Geodetic Affairs and Legal and property affairs Mr Zdenko Milinović, Director Ms Slavka Popovic: Deputy Director for social statistics Ms Nora Selinovic: Deputy Director, Chief of the Population Statistics and Registers Department. Mr Edin Sabanovic: Assistant Director for statistical methodology, standards quality, planning and cooperation Ms Suzana Marceta, Head of Financial and Accounting Department Ms Maida Hasanbegovic, Assistant Director for dissemination sector Mr Admir Kulic, Head of infrastructure and communication Department Mr Bakar Sujoldzic, cartography expert Mr Nedzad Pasalic, assistant of Director M. Valentino Vlasic, inspector for cadastre Ms Dijana Sikima, Project manager. Delegation of the European Union to Bosnia and Herzegovina Ms Snezana Ostojic. Mr Dervis Djurdjevic, Director Ms Hidajeta Čolović Ms Radmila Čičković, Director Ms Bogdana Radic, Assistant Director for Social Statistics Mr Rajko Vranjes, adviser for demography Ms Milka Miholcic, head of dept demographic statistics Mr Dean Arezina, senior adviser for census and projections Mr Mladen Sibinovic, Head of IT Infrastructure Department Mr Vladan Sibinovic, Head of Publication Department Mr Darko Marinovic, PES manager Mr Velibor Vitor Mr Darko Misyovic Mr Radoslav Latincic Ms Radmila Cickovic 16

17 XIII. Terms of reference EUROPEAN COMMISSION EUROSTAT Directorate D: External cooperation, communication and key indicators Unit D-1: Statistical cooperation with European and Mediterranean countries TERMS OF REFERENCE FOR A MISSION TO BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA Participant: Jean-Michel DURR, international consultant on statistics and demography and former Director for the population census in France, and former head of demographic statistics at UN Statistical Division. Time and duration: Three working days from January 2011 Objectives of the mission: To assess the preparations of the population and housing census in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in order to give a best estimate for the amount of time needed to prepare and conduct a census once the census law has been passed. The preparations in the statistical offices should be investigated, with a view to estimate what still has to be done from the point when the census law is adopted until a census can be conducted. The assessment shall, as a minimum, cover the following parts of the census operations: Assess the general preparedness of the census organisation and the global plan for preparing and conducting the census. This would include an assessment of the census budget, the detailed activity plan and plans for quality assurance Assess the plans for a pilot census Review the census questionnaires and enumerator guidelines. Assess the preparations for updating of maps and delineating of enumeration areas. Assess the plans for data processing including data capture, coding and editing Assess the plans for enumeration including logistics, staff selection and monitoring of field operations Assess the plans for a post enumeration survey and the survey material 17

18 Because of the decentralised structure of Bosnia and Herzegovina, it is necessary to meet with representatives from institutions at both state and entity level, including those of Republika Srpska located in Banja Luka. However, the expert shall work on the assumption that a population and housing census will be held simultaneously in the complete territory of BiH. Background: In the frame of the Technical Coordination Group for censuses, a "census matrix" has been developed for BiH in Oct 2010 and is available at Eurostat. Documents on the process to draft a census law are available both at BHAS and Eurostat. The national statistical system of BiH formed working groups to prepare the census and documentation of that work is available at BHAS, as well as a census budget and a census plan. Under multi-beneficiary IPA 2007 and IPA 2008 projects, experts went to BiH to give support to census preparations. Eurostat has mission reports. Under national IPA 2007, census phase 1 was conducted by a private company. Reports are available at EU Delegation and BHAS. This includes a report from an ad hoc expert mission on census cartography, carried out in March Justification: The census law of BiH has been blocked politically since 2009 and several assistance projects, including the IMO, depend on the adoption of the census law before they can start. For the planning of assistance projects worth around 4mn it is necessary to know what are the realistic scenario regarding the timing of census and the real implementation of the census, once the census law is adopted. The pilot census has been put on hold until the census law is adopted. People to meet: The European Union Delegation, three statistical institutes (BiH Agency for statistics, the statistical office of the Federation of BiH, and the statistical office of Republika Srpska, located in Banja Luka) and two geodetic institutes (of the Federation and of Republika Srpska).It is assumed that either the Bosnian authorities or the EU delegation will provide interpreters wherever necessary (mainly for the entity institutions). Deliverables: The expert will submit a comprehensive mission report with facts found on the ground in BiH, as well as an assessment of the facts by the expert. The mission report shall cover the various aspects of census preparations and give a best estimate for the amount of time and for the kind of preparatory efforts needed for BiH to conduct a census once the census law has been passed. 18