Onlinepoker in North America

Transcription

1 Onlinepoker in North America and some more research on online poker 9th EASG Conference in Loutraki 20th September 2012

2 Agenda The Dataset: Introducing the OPD-UHH The Online Poker Market (in North America) Relationship to the Offline Gaming Market Spotlight on More Poker Research Legal Online Poker in the USA Is Poker a Game of Skill? Playing Habits of Online Poker Players Identifying Pathological Online Poker Players Online Gambling as a Game Changer to Money Laundering Conclusion and Perspective 2

3 The Dataset: Introducing the Online Poker Database of the (OPD-UHH)

4 Data Set of the OPD-UHH Data collection in corporation with PokerScout (independent market investigator) 6 months 5 poker sites (65% market share) 4.6 million player identities observed Origion (country or city) Limits played Session length Number of tables 4

5 Starting and ending points of the data collection Poker site Start End PokerStars 09/10/ /11/2010 Full Tilt Poker 09/06/ /11/2010 Everest Poker 08/13/ /11/2010 IPN (Boss Media) 07/27/ /02/2010 Cake Poker 11/01/ /02/2010 5

6 Limitations of the Data Set Only cash games (no tournaments) Not all sites accept US-players Non-identified origin of some player identities Potential false information 92% successful assignement of cities to regions and countries One player identity one player (multiple accounts) 6

7 The Online Poker Market (in North America)

8 Players per Country (Fiedler/Wilcke 2012) Rank Country Active players Share 1 USA 1,429, % 2 Germany 581, % 3 France 445, % 4 Russia 401, % 5 Canada 345, % 6 Great Britain 269, % 7 Spain 253, % 8 Netherlands 239, % 9 Brazil 153, % 10 Australia 129, % Other 2,110, % TOTAL 6,029, % 8

9 Market Size (Fiedler/Wilcke 2012) Rank Country Gross Market size 2010 Size in mil. US$ per year Share 1 USA % 2 Germany % 3 Russia % 4 Canada % 5 France % 6 Great Britain % 7 Netherlands % 8 Spain % 9 Sweden % 10 Finland % Total 3, % 9

10 The Online Poker Market in the USA #1 10

11 The Online Poker Market in the USA #2 11

12 The Online Poker Market in Canada 12

13 The Relationship to the Offline Gaming Market (Philander/Fiedler 2012)

14 Methodology Severeal OLS regression models Dependent variable: Annual online poker revenue per state Independent variables Offline casino revenue Offline recetrack revenue Tribal casino revenue Lottery revenue US sources: AGA, Meister, Tax Foundation Canada sources: Canadian Gambling Digest 14

15 Results Online poker and offline casino gambling are complements Small but robust finding across variety of models No significant effect on lottery revenues Population size and internet usage is positively related to online poker market Disposable income only in one model significant Not significant: smoking prevalence rates heavy drinking prevalence rates higher education levels unemployment rates gross domestic product 15

16 Discussion Synergistiv effects between markets increase overall market size Gambling forms do not canbibalize each other Double-edged sword: Brick & Mortar Casinos are not wary from competition from online poker but welcome it Higher avaliability and higer market size more gambling problems Results to be replicated for Australia? (Fiedler/Philander/Gainsbury 2013) 16

17 Spotlight on More Poker Research

18 Legal Online Poker in the USA (Fiedler/Philander/Bernhard 2012) Market size in million $ In-State Only Scenario (Most likely) 0 $47 $178 $283 Inter-State Scenario 0 $98 $369 $586 Multi-National Scenario 0 $140 $528 $840 Factors incorporated The probability and timing of online poker legalization in each A decrease in the size of the regulated U.S. market due to an increase of taxes The potential effect of monopolistic/oligopolistic market conditions on price due to the possibility of limited licenses being issued The likely effect of network externalities in the U.S The positive effect of moving poker from the grey market to a fully legal market The positive effect of large corporations with expertise in gaming marketing promoting and advertising their sites within the U.S. The effects of any incremental increase in responsible gaming regulations. 18

19 Is Poker a game of Skill? Question is not if but when poker becomes a game of skill Share of results Skill Chance n* = CRF i λ:= significance-coefficient n:= repetitions i:= specific player n = repetitions σ:= standard deviation (Chance) E:= expected value (Skill) x:= specific game (Poker) 19

20 Poker is a Game of Skill BUT FOR THE MINORITY! ~13 hours to reach CRF (Fiedler/Rock 2009) n CRF95.5% CRF99.7% NL max 51, ,658 Median player plays less than 5 hours (Fiedler 2012) Thus, more than 50% play poker as a game of chance (Fiedler 2012b) 20

21 Playing Habits of Online Poker Players (Fiedler 2012c) Relative Playing Volume compared to week1, logarithmic 10000% 1000% 100% 10% 25-Percentile 75-Percentile Median Percentile Week 25-Percentile Median 75-Percentile $ 25 $ 20 $ 15 $ 10 $ 5 $ 0 $ -5 $ Absolute Playing Volume compared to week 1-10 $ There is a group of Newcomers that increases its playing volume dramatically This group is interesting for the industry as well as the prevention of problem gambling The path to pathology? 21

22 Identifying Pathological Online Poker Players (Wilcke 2013) It is necessary to distinguish between professional and pathological players The way to do this is by looking at their betting patterns If these patterns suggest chasing, impulsivity, or irrationality the player may be at risk Comparing betting patterns of clinically diagnosed pathological poker players with total player pool This may allow to put a red flag on everybody who is a probable pathological gambler Preliminary result: It is all about chasing 22

23 Online Gambling as a Game Changer to Money Laundering (McCarthy/van Santen/Fiedler 2013) Player Deposit Option Payment Processor Gambling Operator Player Withdraw Option Payment Processor Gambling Operator 235 payment options Credit cards (physical/virtual) Debit cards (phyical/virtual) Pre paid cards (physical/virtual) E-Wallets Wire transfer ACH check Player-to-Player transfer (P2P) (Mobile-) telephone bill Cash Many payment processrs (how many?) operators Casinos Bookmakers Betting exchanges Poker Bingo Skill Games 23

24 Online Gambling as a Game Changer to Money Laundering (McCarthy/van Santen/Fiedler 2013) Price of Money Laundering Supply of Money Laundering (ML becomes cheaper) Demand of Money Laundering Old crime level New crime level Organized Crime Decreased cots for money laundering due to online gambling increase in organized crime 24

25 Conclusion & Perspective Online Poker is a gold mine of data Online poker offers extraordinary rich opportunities for research besides determining ist market size Game Theory Gambling Behavior Cognitive research Regulation 25

26 Thank you for your kind attention!