The good, the bad and the ugly in UK biodiversity monitoring

Transcription

1 The good, the bad and the ugly in UK biodiversity monitoring Richard D. Gregory wildlife here is special and diverse the general state of knowledge is almost without compare globally

2 Starting point is a rich tradition of amateur but highly skilled biological inquiry and recording. Gilbert White regarded by many as England's first ecologist who shaped the modern attitude of respect and curiosity for nature - and for recording So skip 200 years exactly and what is the state of our wildlife?

3 The good, the bad, and the ugly? 2013 Question Does anyone provide a clear, unambiguous assessment of the state of nature in the UK?

4 Existing reporting Indicators Red-lists Scheme reports Citizen science Reports from species studies The state of... Wild Bird Indicators: Source: British Trust for Ornithology, Defra, Joint Nature Conservation Committee, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds

5 Existing reporting Indicators Red-lists Scheme reports Citizen science Reports from species studies The state of... Existing reporting Indicators Red-lists Scheme reports Citizen science Reports from species studies The state of...

6 Existing reporting Indicators Red-lists Scheme reports Citizen science Reports from species studies The state of... Existing reporting Indicators Red-lists Scheme reports Citizen science Reports from species studies The state of...

7 Existing reporting

8 SoNLogo_4c.jpg For the first time ever, the UK s wildlife organisations joined forces in 2013 to undertake a health check of nature in the UK and its Overseas Territories STATE OF NATURE REPORT NEW Master... PC-CMYK-LOG... (2)

9 SoN: what did it aim to do? A single authoritative statement on the state of nature, in order to: Provide a clear, unified message on the state and trends of UK s biodiversity To promote the activities of partners to monitor and conserve biodiversity SoN: Objective, evidence & science-led: Based on best available data & expertise Focus on species & habitats Aiming to cover all taxonomic groups Containing cross-cutting themes

10 SoN: multiple audiences Policy & decision makers Conservationists, researchers, naturalists Citizen scientists Our supporters Elements of the wider public SoN: 2013 partnership Taxa-focused NGOs e.g. Mammal Society Butterfly Conservation Buglife Plantlife Bat Conservation Trust ARC BTO RSPB Research/data bodies e.g. CEH Rothamsted NBN Other NGOs e.g. WWT Wildlife Trusts Marine organisations Pond Conservation Recording soc's e.g. BSBI BCS BLS

11 Burns F Eaton MA Gregory RD Al Fulaij N August TA Biggs J Bladwell S Brereton T Brooks D Clubbe C Dawson J Dunn E Edwards B Falk S Gent T Gibbons D Gurney M Haysom K Henshaw S Hodgetts N Isaac NJB McLaughlin M Musgrove AJ Noble D O Mahony E Pacheco M Roy DB Sears J Shardlow M Stringer C Taylor A Thompson P Walker K Walton P Willing MJ Wilson J and Wynde R (2013) State of Nature report. The State of Nature partnership.

12 Historical context SoN: case studies Lowland meadow -97% Coppice -90% Heathland -80% Lowland raised mire -94% Blanket bog -44% Fen drainage Agricultural intensification

13 UKOTs 14 - No metrics Endemism 16x that in UK Huge gaps in knowledge Threats over 90 species CR Tackling non-natives Successful conservation Improving knowledge SoN: new metrics Species trends Watchlist Indicator National red lists

14 SoN: species trends We have quantitative assessments of the population or distribution trends of 3,148 species. Of these, 60% of species have declined over the last 50 years and 31% have declined strongly. SoN: species trends The percentage of species increasing or decreasing across all 3148 species assessed, and by three main taxonomic groups. The values in brackets represent the percentage of species assessed for each group

15 SoN: species trends Beetles (68), Moths (676), Butterflies (56), Ladybirds (42), Bees, wasps and ants (382), aquatic invertebrates (145) Flowering plants (1309) and mosses and liverworts (253) Birds (198), Mammals (18) and Amphibians (1) The percentage of species increasing or decreasing across all 3148 species assessed, and by three main taxonomic groups. The values in brackets represent the percentage of species assessed for each group SoN: species trends We were able to collate abundance and distribution data for about 5% of the UK s species The species included in our measures have not been selected as a representative sample of UK species Each species was allocated to one of four categories: strong increase, slight increase, slight decrease and strong decrease. The thresholds for allocation into these categories were either based on magnitude of change, or statistical significance We made an overall assessment of species trends and also looked at individual taxonomic groups and habitats

16 SoN: Watchlist Indicator A new Watchlist Indicator, developed to measure how conservation priority species are faring, shows that their overall numbers have declined by 77% in the last 40 years, with little sign of recovery. SoN: Watchlist Indicator The indicator starts at 100; a rise to 200 would show that, on average, the populations of indicator species have doubled, whereas if it dropped to 50 they would have halved. Dotted lines show the 95% confidence limits, w hich were generated by bootstrapping the species level trends.

17 SoN: Watchlist Indicator 77 moths, 19 butterflies, 8 mammals and 51 birds The indicator starts at 100; a rise to 200 would show that, on average, the populations of indicator species have doubled, whereas if it dropped to 50 they would have halved. Dotted lines show the 95% confidence limits, w hich were generated by bootstrapping the species level trends. SoN: watchlist Indicator The indicator is constructed from trends in abundance for 155 (~13%) of the 1,150 species that were listed as priorities on the UK BAP No plants, fungi, lichens or invertebrates, other than butterflies and moths The data for each species was scaled so that the estimate for each year was expressed as a proportion of the estimate in the first year The composite index is the geometric mean of the scaled specieslevel data, each species is weighted equally Not all species enter the indicator in 1970 and the index has been adjusted to take this into account

18 SoN: National Red Lists Of more than 6,000 species that have been assessed using modern Red List criteria, more than one in ten are thought to be under threat of extinction in the UK. SoN: National Red Lists

19 SoN: national red lists We brought together national Red Lists, for either the UK or Great Britain, that have been produced using the latest guidelines from the IUCN In addition, for each habitat section we report on the proportion of flowering plants and bryophytes that are threatened with extinction, using modern Red List assessments and published assessments of habitat There is room for interpretation of the Red List guidelines and so there are small differences in the way different authors have compiled the national Red Lists summarised here. This is particularly true in defining which species are not threatened (of Least Concern) SoN: The Headlines 60% of species declining, 31% strongly (3,148 species) Nature is in flux (31% strong decline, 20% strong increase) Watchlist Indicator down by 77% since 1970 Over 10% of species listed as threatened (6,225 sp.) UKOTs are hugely important

20 SoN: the headlines 60% of species declining, 31% strongly (3,148 species) Nature is in flux (31% strong decline, 20% strong increase) Watchlist Indicator down by 77% since 1970 Over 10% of species listed as threatened (6,225 sp.) UKOTs are hugely important Anthropogenic threats are many and varied Good conservation action can succeed Our knowledge is surprisingly poor Volunteers are vital in monitoring our nature David Attenborough... "This is a call to arms..this is an important day for the health of the natural world"

21 And yet we lack trend information for ~95% and Red-list assessments for ~86% of UK terrestrial and freshwater species SoN: post Development of Priority Species Indicator (PSI) aka the Watchlist for publication as an official UK Biodiversity Indicator 2. Completed an assessment of the Drivers of species change 3. Completed a Response project - identifying the most important actions to maintain & restore nature launches next week 4. SoN partnership continues to grow 5. Planning for the 2016 report.

22 Priority Species Indicator (PSI) Based on 213 species. Dotted lines show the 95 per cent confidence intervals Bar chart shows % of species increasing or declining over the long-term (1970 to 2012) & short-term (2007 to 2012) Source: Bat Conservation Trust, British Trust for Ornithology, Butterfly Conservation, Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Defra, Joint Nature Conservation Committee, People s Trust for Endangered Species, Rothamsted Research, Royal Society for the Protection of Birds. Notes: Based on 179 species of insect. Bar chart shows the percentage of species increasing or declining over the long term (1970 to 2011). All species in the indicator are present on one or more of the country priority species lists Natural Environmental and Rural Communities Act 2006 Section 41 (England) and Section 42 (Wales), Northern Ireland Priority Species List, Scottish Biodiversity List). Source: Bees, Wasps & Ants Recording Society, British Dragonfly Society, Biological Records Centre (supported by the centre for Ecology & Hydrology and the Joint Nature Conservation Committee), Butterfly Conservation, Hoverfly Recording Scheme, Orthoptera Recording Scheme.

23 SoN: Drivers of species change Project outline: 1.Expert assessment by multiple experts from SoN partners 2.Standardised approach 3.Scoring drivers both +ve and ve 4.Scoring for both level of impact and level of evidence 5.Random sample of species for which trends are available; birds, mammals, amphibians, reptiles, lepidoptera, orthoptera, ladybirds, vascular plants -63% High Brown Fritillary Driver Broad Driver Specific Forest management Other habitat management/ restoration Use of forest products and forest Abandonment (Lack of Management) Direction of Driver Strength Direction of of Impact Impact - - Strength of Evidence Silver-washed Fritillary Climate change Forest management Climatic conditions 4 8 Use of forest products and forest % SoNLogo_4c.jpg

24 The most important drivers of species population changes Assessed ~400 species of insects, vascular plants & vertebrates

25 SoN: second report Developments to include: 1.Enlarged partnership 2.Increasing species coverage 3.New and improved metrics e.g. Priority Species Indicator & Red- List index 4.Improving reporting on the four countries, Crown Dependencies, Overseas Territories, & marine environment 5.Incorporating work on the Drivers of change 6.Plan to include an element of mass participation, citizen science But let s return to the question: What s s good, bad and ugly in UK biodiversity monitoring..

26 THE GOOD: Highly skilled, motivated, brilliant volunteers Well-designed, robust, structured schemes e.g. birds bats butterflies Partnership working across organisations/taxa/academic/ngos-govt Better data collation, communication & synthesis e.g. biodiversity indicators Exciting smart new schemes for plants, pollinators, water voles more red listing Intelligent data capture, sharing & analysis (incl. ad hoc data) Technology advancing a pace automated capture & recognition New opportunities e.g. ecosystem services, natural capital accounting, invasive species legislation (?) The internet social media The SoN Partnership & hopefully our next report. THE BAD: Massive geographical, taxonomic & temporal bias in data Bias towards vertebrates glaring gaps invertebrates, bryophytes & fungi Govts overly focussed on statutory reporting requirements Organisational territoriality, duplication, complexity The experts data flows, validation, blockages!! Some badly designed (sampling strategy & survey methods) & badly operated monitoring schemes Poor tracking of extinctions & colonisations (invasive alien species) Need for better sharing of experience & expertise in developing & running monitoring schemes With a growing disconnection with nature, where will the next fieldworkers and experts come from?

27 THE UGLY: Declining Govt & other funding for biodiversity research & monitoring wildlife here is special and diverse the general state of knowledge is almost without compare globally But the state of knowledge is still very poor

28 Thank you