Where will conservation efforts bring the greatest benefits for native birds?

Transcription

1 Where will conservation efforts bring the greatest benefits for native birds? Susan Walker Landcare Research, Dunedin Wednesday 13th September 2017 Wellington

2 Thanks Funding MBIE Core Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment

3 Thanks Images Neil Fitzgerald John Innes Craig Mackenzie Rachel McLennan James Mortimer James Reardon Glenda Rees Peter Scott DOC

4 Thanks Adrian Monks John Innes Graeme Elliott Josh Kemp Data Ornithological Society of New Zealand (bird atlases) Department of Conservation (rodents)

5 original bird fauna MAINLAND land birds Ornithological Society of New Zealand bird atlases ~25 YEARS Bull et al. (1985) Robertson et al. (2007)

6 extant bird fauna Ornithological Society of New Zealand bird atlases Probability of occupancy Standardised for different: - levels of effort - spatial systems Bull et al. (1985) Robertson et al. (2007)

7 birds potentially modelled Takahē

8 64 taxa

9 Local occupancy Rifleman local occupancy Atlas Rifleman local occupancy Atlas

10 Decrease Increase Local occupancy Rifleman local occupancy Atlas Change Atlas 1 to Atlas to

11 Total range occupancy Rifleman local occupancy Atlas Rifleman local occupancy Atlas % 4% 26% 19%

12 Decrease Increase Local richness Number of native bird species Atlas Change in number of native bird species Atlas 1 to Atlas to

13 Which birds were in most trouble, and where? Endemism level Habitat group Which groups of birds? Environment density of human occupation, land use, deforestation, temperature Where? MURCHISON MOUNTAINS FROM TE ANAU, JAMES REARDON

14 Which birds were in most trouble, and where? Endemism level Habitat group Which groups of birds? Environment density of human occupation, land use, deforestation, temperature Where?

15 ROB SUISTED Level of endemism

16 Deep endemism

17 RIFLEMAN, NEIL FITZGERALD Deep endemism

18 KAKA, JAMES REARDON Deep endemism

19 NORTH ISLAND KOKAKO, JOHN INNES Deep endemism

20 MOHUA IN RED BEECH FOREST, GLENDA REES Deep endemism

21 Coastal waders/terns/gulls NZ dotterel Shallower (species-level) endemics

22 Coastal waders/terns/gulls Variable oystercatcher Southern black-backed gull Red-billed gull Caspian tern White-fronted tern Shallower (species-level) endemics Non-endemic native

23 Freshwater wetland Grey teal White-faced heron Australian coot Shallower (species-level) endemics Non-endemic native Recently selfintroduced (since ~ 1850)

24 Trouble DOING OK IN SOME TROUBLE IN SERIOUS TROUBLE TEETERING ON THE BRINK OF EXTINCTION EXTINCT Population size / range occupancy

25 Deep endemism = deep trouble Species which have had a long evolutionary history in New Zealand seem now to be susceptible to extinction. This suggests some peculiarity in the evolutionary process which in a time related manner affects the present viability of the species (McDowall 1969, p. 8).

26 Endemism = trouble Changes in average local occupancy over 25 years ( to ) Recently self-introduced Non-endemic native Species level Genus level Order, family and subfamily levels ( deep endemics ) DOING OK Level of endemism >>> IN SERIOUS TROUBLE

27 Spatial distributions vary with endemism level Average local occupancy in Recently self-introduced Non-endemic native Species level Genus level Order, family and subfamily levels ( deep endemics ) SETTLED AND PRODUCTION LOWLANDS Level of endemism >>> REMOTE FOREST AND ALPINE

28 Road density as an index of human occupation Relative road density (RD)

29 Local occupancy Increase 0.6 Recently self-introduced NORTH ISLAND 1999 to 2004 Effects of road density and endemism level 0.3 Recently self-introduced 1969 to to 2004 Change to 1979 SOUTH ISLAND 0.3 Relative road density (RD)

30 Local occupancy 0.6 Recently self-introduced NORTH ISLAND 1999 to 2004 Effects of road density and endemism level Non-endemic native Species level Genus level Subfamily levels Family level Order levels to 1979 SOUTH ISLAND 1969 to to to to 2004 Relative road density (RD) Level of endemism >>>

31 Biotic homogenisation - Recent arrivals increasing in human occupied landscapes - Deep endemics decreasing in refuges mainly remote from human occupation

32 Number of bird taxa Six habitat groups 20 Recently self-introduced Non-endemic native Species-level Genus-level Subfamily-level Family-level Order-level deep endemics 5 0 Forest Wader/tern/gull (breeds inland) Wader/tern/gull (coastal breeding) Freshwater wetland Coastal wetland Other open habitats Bird group

33 Increase Doing OK Changes in average local occupancy over 25 years Coastal-breeding wading birds, terns & gulls (n = 6) Freshwater wetland birds (n = 17) Birds of coastal wetlands and shores (n = 5) Birds of other open habitats (n = 7)

34 Decrease In some, or serious, trouble Changes in average local occupancy over 25 years Forest birds (n = 22) Inland-breeding wading birds, terns & gulls (n = 7)

35 Birds in most trouble Inland-breeding wading birds, terns and gulls Wrybill BANDED DOTTEREL, TASMAN VALLEY, CRAIG MACKENZIE

36 TASMAN VALLEY AND MT COOK, PETER SCOTT

37 PUKAKI OUTWASH PLAIN, SIMONS PASS, MACKENZIE BASIN, PETER SCOTT

38 Inland-breeding wading birds, terns and gulls Average local occupancy Atlas Average local occupancy Atlas Change Atlas 1 to Atlas to

39 WRYBILL CHICK, MACKENZIE BASIN, DOC

40

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42 AHURIRI OUTWASH PLAIN, KILLERMONT, MACKENZIE BASIN, PETER SCOTT

43 Environmental predictors of local occupancy change Distance from the coast (km) Percent of square under crops, pasture or exotic forestry (in 2001) Relative level of urbanisation (in 2001)

44 Local occupancy Land use and urbanisation effects 1.0 High % agriculture and forestry Low % agriculture and forestry On the coast Inland On the coast Inland NORTH ISLAND 0.5 Non-endemic native Pied stilt 1.0 SOUTH ISLAND 1969 to 1979 Species-level endemics Banded dotterel Black billed gull Black-fronted tern Black stilt SI pied oystercatcher to 2004 Genus-level endemic Wrybill Level of endemism >>>

45 Local occupancy Land use and urbanisation effects 1.0 High % agriculture and forestry Low % agriculture and forestry On the coast Inland On the coast Inland NORTH ISLAND 0.4 Urbanisation effect to to SOUTH ISLAND 1969 to to Level of endemism >>> Low Med. High Level of urbanisation

46 Land use plays a role Inland-breeding wading birds, terns and gulls - greater declines in inland South Island breeding areas developed for agriculture and forestry - greater increases in winter feeding areas surrounded by more urban development

47 Level of endemism >>> Remaining forest birds ` Silvereye Shining cuckoo Morepork Long-tailed cuckoo Yellow-crowned parakeet Falcon Tomtit Robin Weka (all) Grey warbler Fantail Kererū Bellbird Tūi Blue duck Rifleman Kōkako Kea Kākā Whitehead Mōhua Brown creeper Kiwi (all)

48 Average occupancy probability Forest birds need forest At human settlement Native forest cover Now Endemic forest birds WALKER & MONKS 2017 (LANDCARE RESEARCH REPORT FOR THE PCE)

49 Average occupancy probability Endemic forest birds need forest more Endemic forest birds

50 Endemic forest birds need forest more Forest now Nonendemics >>> Species- & genuslevel endemics >>> 0 Deep endemics WALKER & MONKS 2017 (LANDCARE RESEARCH REPORT FOR THE PCE) Level of endemism >>> 0.0

51 Local occupancy Effects of forest cover and endemism level 1.0 Subfamily levels NORTH ISLAND Family level Order levels to SOUTH ISLAND 1999 to to % Amount of forest Level of endemism >>> 1999 to 2004

52 Average local occupancy probability Deep endemic forest birds Change to Forest now

53 Local occupancy 1.0 Effects of forest cover and endemism level on forest birds Recently self-introduced NORTH ISLAND Non-endemic native Species level Genus level Subfamily levels Family level Order levels to SOUTH ISLAND 1999 to to % Amount of forest Level of endemism >>> 1999 to 2004

54 Not all forests are equal PAPAROA NATIONAL PARK, JAMES REARDON

55 Not all forests are equal Ship rat JOHN INNES, LANDCARE RESEARCH

56 Predator patterns Ship rats A B C D E F Rat forest classes WALKER ET AL (LANDCARE RESEARCH AND DOC, IN PREP)

57 DOC s rodent tracking tunnel dataset >250,000 records 1999 to present SAMPLING FREQUENCY # # # # # 1 1 to 4 4 to to 30 >30 Indigenous forest or subalpine scrub

58 HIGH, BEECHY IRRUPTIVE MICE, but RATS RARE COLDER

59 HIGH, BEECHY IRRUPTIVE MICE, RATS RARE > LOW ELEVATION ALWAYS RATTY FEW MICE COLDER WARMER

60 Unmanaged tracking rate Rat forest classes RAT FOREST CLASS A B C D E F most continuously ratty forests min median max Ship rat tracking percentile through time

61 Unmanaged tracking rate Rat forest classes irruptive rat forests min median max Ship rat tracking percentile through time

62 Rat forest class Temperature ship rats irruptive rat forests most continuously ratty Mean annual temperature >>>

63 Beechiness (stems per hectare) Ratty forests are warm non-beech forests 200 irruptive rat forests 0 most continuously ratty Mean annual temperature >>>

64 Mean annual temperature in squares with remaining forest Temperature patterns Forests WARMER FORESTS COLDER FORESTS

65 Local occupancy Mean annual temperature in squares with remaining forest Temperature patterns Endemic forest birds in forests s WARMER FORESTS years later COLDER FORESTS Mean annual temperature >>>

66 Deep endemic forest birds depend more on cold forests

67 Local occupancy Level of endemism >>> Deep endemic forest birds depend more on cold forests 0.5 Species level Genus level Family level Order level South Island 0.0 COLD > WARM COLD > WARM COLD > WARM North Island COLD > WARM

68 Local occupancy 0.5 Kākā NORTH ISLAND SOUTH ISLAND 1970s Early 2000s 0.0 COLD > WARM WALKER, KAKA: JAMES MONKS REARDON & INNES (2017)

69 Local occupancy 0.5 Blue duck/whio NORTH ISLAND SOUTH ISLAND 1970s Early 2000s 0.0 COLD > WARM WHIO FORAGING: NEIL FITZGERALD

70 Local occupancy 0.5 Mohua SOUTH ISLAND 1970s Early 2000s 0.0 COLD > WARM MOHUA IN RED BEECH FOREST : GLENDA REES

71 Local occupancy 0.5 Rifleman NORTH ISLAND SOUTH ISLAND 1970s Early 2000s 0.0 COLD > WARM RIFLEMAN, NEIL FITZGERALD

72 Warm forests are a bigger management challenge than beech forest Scale is key: ability to maintain low ship rat numbers over very large forest areas cost-effectively without unintended consequences KEA : JAMES MORTIMER

73 Conclusions 1. Homogenisation continues loss of remaining deep endemics, in forests and the alpine zone takeover by a recently arrived weedy avifauna, especially in human-modified landscapes SINBAD VALLEY, FIORDLAND, JAMES REARDON

74 Conclusions 2. Humans have played and are still playing major roles Past deforestation is likely to limit endemic forest bird recovery, and opportunity to keep and restore large populations lies in remaining forests. Development of inland South Island basins is now foreclosing options for inland breeding wading birds, terns & gulls.

75 Conclusions 3. Not all forests are equal Ability to effectively and cheaply control rodents at large scales in warm forests will be a key management tipping point

76 Acknowledgements Birds New Zealand Adrian Monks John Innes Graeme Elliott Josh Kemp Craig Mackenzie Rachel McLennan James Mortimer Peter Scott Glenda Rees