Advanced Indoor Sensing: The Next Frontier of the Built Environment

Transcription

1 Advanced Indoor Sensing: The Next Frontier of the Built Environment Lead Analyst: Alex Herceg, P. Eng. Analyst Coverage Area: Intelligent Buildings May 20, 2016 Contributors: Jessica Hernandez, Arij van Berkel, PhD

2 Executive Summary Traditional sensing in buildings is system-level, targeting energy use. Advanced indoor sensing (AIS) is comprised of a diverse toolkit of capabilities and technologies. It offers strong potential to drive topline, operational changes rather than responsive, expense-oriented actions. AIS tools differ substantially in cost, barriers to entry, and their integrative and adjacency value. To succeed, companies must build scale and exploit sensor fusion; those targeting multiple use cases will be most competitive. The value of AIS tools vary across building segments: Health care and hospitality are untapped opportunities; retail and offices are well-served. Advanced indoor sensing Indoor wayfinding Presence detection Movement tracking Occupant messaging Fault notification Object location Space use analysis Air quality sensing Indoor mapping BLE beacons Wi-Fi Ultra-wide band IPS Occupant sensing Occupant counting Visible light communication BLE beacon Occupant engagement RFID Pollutant detection 2

3 Contents Landscape The state of standard indoor sensing Moving beyond basics advanced indoor sensing (AIS) defined (3/30/300) Technologies and applications for AIS - Toolkit Key emerging company activity Progress of large corporates Analysis Outlook Explanation of methodology of Blue Ocean strategy canvas Blue Ocean strategy canvas comparing AIS capabilities Identification of competitive AIS technologies Mapping technologies onto sectors with the most potential for value 3

4 Landscape

5 System level Occupant space Personal/wearable Indoor sensing today is focused on the system level targeting energy use Flow rate Temperature Position Humidity Contaminant detection Goal: Energy efficiency Opportunity: Wellbeing and productivity Temperature Humidity Presence Noise Ambient light Heart rate Movement Position Temperature Advanced indoor sensing (AIS) comprises infrastructure oriented around variables in the occupied space of a (commercial) building. Buildings are relatively poorly instrumented, particularly in interior spaces Small buildings are most often neglected, often equipped with only temperature sensing Granularity is lacking, as most sensors have been placed at the system level in order to target energy use, rather than a personal level There is very limited proliferation of personal sensors in commercial buildings, beyond common RFID access control tags 5

6 Energy is only part of the equation, and forwardlooking companies are targeting the Energy Electricity and other fuels Cost = $3/ft 2 per year Expense oriented: to which stakeholders take a reactive approach to reduce energy through efficiency upgrades Facilities People Real estate procurement Cost = $30/ft 2 per year Human capital Cost = $300/ft 2 per year Income oriented: to which stakeholders take a proactive approach to increase gains Affects top-line revenue Requires firm understanding of business operations Identification and optimization of business processes Advanced indoor sensing enables top-line adding activities 6

7 Startups are active in almost all aspects of AIS, while large companies are almost absent AIS Toolkit AIS is not a technology but a toolkit of capabilities These tools span a diverse group of technologies related to building systems, internet of things, and software applications Early adopting building segments are retail and commercial offices Advanced indoor sensing Application/Capability Indoor wayfinding Presence detection Movement tracking Occupant messaging Enabling technology Indoor mapping BLE beacons Wi-Fi Ultra-wide band IPS Occupant sensing Occupant counting Visible light communication Large companies have experimented with AIS, but most innovations are coming from startups Fault notification Object location BLE beacon Occupant engagement RFID Geographic spread of developers is diverse Space use analysis Air quality sensing Sensor Pollutant detection In the sensor 7

8 AIS technology toolbox is a diverse collection Technology Indoor mapping + indoor positioning system (IPS) Bluetooth Low Energy (BLE) beacons Wi-Fi Ultra-wide band (UWB) indoor positioning system Presence detection (occupancy sensing) Occupant counting Visible light communication (VLC) Occupant engagement app Description of capability Wayfinding and location of occupants on a building floorplan (may combine several technologies, such as beacons, VLCs, and maps) Low-power networking protocol allowing two-way data exchange with smartphones and beacons Networking protocol widely compatible with devices Series of UWB RF tags and readers, used to monitor movement of people, equipment, or objects, with high accuracy of within 20 cm Sensing of occupants, using passive infra-red (PIR) or RF sensing Detailed capture of occupant presence over time, using low-resolution video, footfall cameras, or enhanced PIR Modulation of LEDs at a high frequency in a small area to allow location and messaging A smartphone application that enables communication with occupants RFID Workstation sensors Pollutant sensing System of RF-enabled tags and readers, to track movement of people (or assets) within the building; range of UHF is 20m to 30m Series of sensors for interaction with office furniture Several technologies, such as near infrared, electrochemical sensing (e.g. VOCs) and particle counters used to detect pollutants (e.g. particulate matter, CO); precision varies 8

9 Progress of large corporates has been very limited, with a few notable exceptions Acuity Brands, the lighting giant, has continued its robust acquisition path with two additions: Distech Controls, which the company acquired in Q1 2014, makes numerous wired sensors that could enable enhanced indoor sensing. Bytelight, which the company acquired in 2015, was one of the pioneers of visible light communication (VLC). Philips Lighting, while it has ongoing research efforts around VLC, has one notable partnership: Aisle 411, a company working with many high-profile retailers to develop a variety of location-based services (LBS) for retail staff and customers A major aircraft manufacturer has one notable partnership related to using lighting infrastructure for data transfer: The undisclosed company partnered with Velmenni to test Li-Fi for in-flight video and audio entertainment units. 9

10 Analysis

11 Contents Landscape The state of standard indoor sensing Moving beyond basics advanced indoor sensing (AIS) defined (3/30/300) Technologies and applications for AIS - Toolkit Key emerging company activity Progress of large corporates Analysis Outlook Explanation of methodology of Blue Ocean strategy canvas Blue Ocean strategy canvas comparing AIS capabilities Identification of competitive AIS technologies Mapping technologies onto sectors with the most potential for value 11

12 Deploying AIS is key to improving building and business operations Advanced indoor sensing provides data that gives facilities better understanding of interactions. Workers Buildings have many actors, which can broadly be grouped into two categories: Visitors Goods People visitors, workers, occupants Building Goods supplies, products, etc. Quantity and rate of interactions varies by building type For a given building type, it is imperative to understand these interactions, and which ones drive value and which incur cost: Building type Supplies E.g. Retail Energy Maintenance Example: Nurses in a hospital environment spend one hour (on average) per day locating medical supplies and equipment asset tracking and indoor location could be used to reduce this Operation Location tracking & services Key variables Position, movement revenue per customer 12

13 The blue ocean strategy canvas provides a framework to assess the AIS capabilities As discussed in the Landscape, there are many technologies under the umbrella of AIS focused on extracting additional data from occupied building spaces. Some of the capabilities of AIS technologies are related to, or extensions of, conventional sensing technologies, such as those used for building automation. To evaluate the utility and disruptive potential of AIS applications, we have used a blue ocean strategy canvas, using several criteria related to cost, energy, deployment, and value enablement. For each AIS capability, we have conducted extensive primary and secondary research. Category Cost Energy Deployment Value Competitive factor Capital cost Total cost Energy savings potential Barrier to entry Speed/flexibility Integrative/adjacent value Environmental quality impact Investment time horizon 13

14 AIS capabilities scored based on competitive factors Cost We assessed each capability based on the eight criteria, across the categories of cost, energy, deployment, and value. For each competitive factor, we have assigned a score to each AIS capability, from 1 to 10 1 being the least favorable, while 10 indicates a very positive score. So, a high score on cost means the costs are relatively low, because low costs are favorable. The methodology varies slightly between factors, but is generally a relative indexing. For the cost competitive factors, the score is as follows: Category Competitive factor Scoring methodology Cost Capital cost Blend of hardware and installation costs; Score based on percentile rank; normalized on a unit floor area basis ($/ft 2 ); company-specific data has been averaged Total cost Cumulative capital and service cost (based on one year) 14

15 AIS capabilities scored based on competitive factors Energy For the energy competitive factors, we determined the score as follows: Category Competitive factor Scoring methodology Effective range Energy Energy savings potential Energy savings potential calculated as a share of total building consumption; assuming standard loads (aggregated commercial data for all building types) Varies from 1% to 24% (combination of HVAC and lighting reductions) 15

16 AIS capabilities scored based on competitive factors Deployment For the deployment competitive factors, we determined the score as follows: Category Competitive factor Scoring methodology Effective range Deployment Barrier to entry Based on difficulty of applicability to various segments, integration, service delivery, or hardware requirements (e.g. hard-wired vs. wireless) Speed/flexibility Speed with which product can be implemented and commissioned Ranges on scale of: Very High-High- Moderate-Low-Very Low Ranges on scale of: Very Low-Low- Moderate-High-Very High 16

17 AIS capabilities scored based on competitive factors Value For the value competitive factors, we determined the score as follows: Category Competitive factor Scoring methodology Range Value Integrative/ adjacent value Readiness to use data/capabilities for other applications beyond the core function Ranges on scale of: Very Low- Low-Moderate-High-Very High" Environmental quality impact Degree of impact on environment for building occupants (e.g. thermal comfort, convenience, air quality, etc.) Ranges on scale of: Very Low- Low-Moderate-High-Very High Investment time horizon Time from initial investment until break-even point is reached Ranges on scale of: Unclear- Long term-(>5yrs)-medium term (2-5yrs)-Short term (1-2yrs)-Immediate 17

18 Value score Blue ocean strategy canvas shows AIS capabilities diverge relative to conventional sensing Competitive Factors Building automation system Indoor wayfinding Presence detection Movement tracking Occupant messaging Fault notification Object location Space use analysis Indoor air quality sensing 18

19 Value score Blue Ocean strategy canvas reveals areas offering differentiation among AIS capabilities Capex varies widely amongst AIS tools Many highcapex items are competitive on total cost Huge disparity in barrier to entry, although many poor performers score better for flexibility and speed of deployment Most AIS tools score moderately to low in energy savings potential Integrative value is a key differentiator; technologies scoring across the board No AIS tools clearly demonstrate a short payback 1 0 Competitive Factors Building automation system Indoor wayfinding Presence detection Movement tracking Occupant messaging Fault notification Object location Space use analysis Indoor air quality sensing 19

20 There is no silver bullet among AIS technologies, but some clearly stand out Clear winners: Presence detection and occupant messaging are not very costly and are easy to install. They provide immediate and clear value in the building. Promising upcoming sensor applications: Indoor air quality sensing has clear and immediate value, but the costs must come down and installation must be streamlined. Indoor wayfinding has clear value when integrated with functions like presence detection and object location; this opens up opportunities for integrators there. Building automation systems can be disrupted by simpler low-cost systems that are easier to install and operate. The strugglers: Object location struggles with high costs and limited utility, but could present promise for segments (e.g. health care) where this is a key concern. Space use analysis depends upon extensive sensing infrastructure, which carries a high cost. Due to sparsity of offerings, pricing for such apps is not yet clear. 20

21 AIS drives top-line value, but impact is not uniform across building types Advanced indoor sensing is not about decreasing costs, it is about increasing operational value. It is a top-line opportunity vs. a bottom-line problem. Each technology outlined in the AIS toolkit varies in granularity from tens of centimeters to tens of meters. Retail is by far the most active segment in experimenting with AIS, and is interesting for these reasons: Brick and mortar stores have not been subject to the same scrutiny as online operations; online retailers are moving back to physical stores for further customer engagement opportunities and deeper analysis at the point of inspiration. Retailers are often in a highly competitive environment and thus willing to experiment. AIS solutions, such as those by Aisle411 and Point Inside, offer operational benefits not only to customers but also to retail staff, allowing retailers to double-down on their infrastructure investment. Commercial offices have received some attention, but largely around operational and maintenance efficiencies, such as restroom cleaning, recycling monitoring, and space utilization (see Yanzi Networks). Few have yet targeted productivity, such as Qwiksense 21

22 Mapping technologies onto sectors with the most potential for value Building segment Using a heat map, we can evaluate the disruptive potential of AIS technologies on particular segments (see Figure). Health care leads in potential, with a particular interest in technologies that enable indoor asset and people tracking. Hotels present an opportunity for AIS entry: The segment s high energy use (approximately double that of office buildings) allows AIS tech with energy savings potential to present a strong case. Guest comfort is a key competitive advantage; companies like Entic have demonstrated success in this segment by translating comfort into increased bookings. Warehouses and storage present an opportunity as asset tracking further evolves and can be integrated with building infrastructure Indoor Indoor wayfinding Commerical office Commerical office Retail & mall Retail & mall Education Education Warehouse & storage Warehouse & storage Lodging Lodging Healthcare Healthcare Food service Food service Indoor Indoor mapping and and location location BLE BLE beacons WiFi WiFi WiFi WiFi + BLE + BLE Ultrawideband IPS IPS Presence detection Occupant counting Occupant engagement Movement tracking Occupant counting Occupant messaging VLC VLC BLE BLE beacon beacon Fault Fault notification Occupant engagement app app Object Object location RFID RFID RFID RFID (UHF) (UHF) Space Space use use analysis Occupancy sensing sensing Workstation sensors sensors Air Air quality quality sensing sensing Pollutant sensing sensing not not useful useful Incremental disruptive 22

23 AIS will succeed in the same way as the smartphone: Open up robust sensor capabilities and scale The blue ocean canvas shows that most variation is in costs and barrier to entry; therefore, companies should work toward solving a winning platform using a twopronged approach: Create volume. Economy of scale helps reduce sensor costs. Exploit sensor fusion. Leverage existing sensors for as many applications as possible, sharing total costs and lowering overall barriers for entry for new applications. To do this successfully, such an offering must: Target multiple applications at once (i.e. not just energy, but also not just air quality); these should be segment-specific and address the most pressing pain-points Build a versatile sensor platform that other companies can also use (i.e. form partnerships across sensor capabilities and applications) Find business models and deployment methods to lower the barrier to installing sensors (e.g. integrate with lighting, or finance as part of an energy retrofit) One case study of this is Enlighted: Has scaled to over 100 million ft 2, and has built its OccupancyONE platform and is now actively seeking partners to build applications to leverage its data on presence, movement, and environmental sensing 23

24 AIS is an opportunity for a diverse set of companies, from commercial hardware to app builders and third-party financiers Commercial hardware providers, such as lighting companies, and building automation and controls companies will need to embrace AIS capabilities. Specifically, they should look to understand certain vertical markets, develop useful applications for those, and deploy. Companies with large service businesses have a strong advantage as they are able to scale deployment most quickly. Capabilities with high flexibility and speed and low barriers to entry include object location, presence detection, indoor wayfinding, and occupant messaging. Companies with expertise in space use and operations should look to monetize this expertise by building apps on the data from leading AIS companies specifically, those with high integrative value: presence detection, indoor wayfinding, occupant messaging, and space use analysis. Capex-heavy measures, such as space use analysis and air quality sensing, can be deferred using third-party financing, but no one has yet de-risked these investments by generating reliable savings beyond energy. 24

25 Outlook

26 Outlook AIS will continue to remain hyped, especially as projections of internet of things (IoT)-connected devices grow. We expect large companies with interests in real estate and facility management to begin to adopt AIS capabilities in the near term. They will focus their attention on certain segments where the value propositions are proven, such as retail. We expect companies to begin to address the large untapped opportunity that exists in health care buildings, where quite a number of AIS tools are attractive; in particular, indoor wayfinding, movement tracking, occupant messaging, object location, and air quality sensing. Presence detection will continue to be a high area of interest for its low total cost and high integrative value, which will enable new service businesses (e.g. workspace management, etc.). 26

27 References 1. Health, Wellbeing & Productivity in Offices: The next chapter for green building (World Green Building Council). 27

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