Fred Gault UNU-MERIT and Tshwane University of Technology (TUT) IX Ibero-American Congress of Science and Technology Indicators Science, Technology

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1 Fred Gault UNU-MERIT and Tshwane University of Technology (TUT) IX Ibero-American Congress of Science and Technology Indicators Science, Technology and Innovation Indicators in Ibero America. Present outlook and future perspective Bogotá, October 10, 2013

2 History and the present state of innovation indicators How are indicators developed presented used Were is the subject going in the short term Within the existing paradigm Emerging technologies, foresight, role of users Within an expanded paradigm Public sector innovation Consumers as innovators Social innovation What is needed to move forward in the longer term Definitions Common language Analysis and a science of innovation policy

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4 For statistical purposes, the definition of innovation is taken from the Oslo Manual (OECD/Eurostat 2005). An innovation is the implementation of a new or significantly improved product (good or service), or process, a new marketing method, or a new organizational method in business practices, workplace organization or external relations (OECD/Eurostat 2005, para. 146). A common feature of an innovation is that it must have been implemented. A new or improved product is implemented when it is introduced on the market (to potential users). New processes, marketing methods or organizational methods are implemented when they are brought into actual use in the firm s operations (OECD/Eurostat 2005, para. 150). Innovation can only happen in a firm, but firms do not act in isolation Gault (2012)

5 A systems approach is implicit in Innovation Policy and the Oslo Manual Actors Governments, education, health and research institutions, business, foreign institutions, Activities R&D, invention, diffusion of technologies and practices, design, HR development, Linkages Contracts, collaborations, co-publication, grants, monitoring, Outcomes short term Jobs, growth, productivity, inclusion, greater equity, Impacts longer term Wellbeing, culture change, global influence and leverage, The activity of innovation is dynamic, complex, non-linear and global

6 Linkages make the system work If linkages are not working it is a system failure Commercialization, collaboration,... Activities may need support R&D performance, capital investment market failures Some observations about context More firms innovate than do R&D Innovation and R&D are dependent on size of firm Need to understand the flows of knowledge, human resources, and finance The science system is different from the innovation system

7 Making a system, or systems, work is the objective of innovation policy Policies can be narrow (one department) or broad (whole of government) Direct (grants, contracts,...) or indirect (tax,...) The systems they seek to influence are bounded Policy can Act directly on the firm, the sector or the region, or Change the boundaries, or the framework conditions (rules of the game, institutions), to increase innovation, but there are different kinds

8 Longer term Education results of reform take decades Long term commitment from successive governments Culture May influence research, industrial products, or trade Willingness to take risk and be entrepreneurs Health Healthy people are more productive Wealth distribution People with resources make markets and have a stake in the society

9 Shorter term Business Regulation and goals, venture capital markets, spin-offs, Trade Regulation and goals FDI? What about knowledge transfer and capacity building? Intellectual property Strong IP? What about open innovation? Physical infrastructure Roads, ports, transportation and telecommunications systems Social infrastructure Openness to collaboration, social networks, trust, mobility, collective problem solving

10 How do we know the system is working? Answering this requires Statistical measurement (implements the definitions) Surveys, use of administrative data, linkage of data sets Monitoring of key indicators Evaluation of the policy interventions Country reviews of innovation policy Resulting in Policy learning from success or failure Public policy debate Adjustment of interventions

11 Indicators of activities R&D expenditures, HR engaged, design costs, capital expenditure (other than R&D), training costs, Sectors: BE, Gov, HE, PNP The activity of innovation Propensity to innovate By sector, geography User innovators Objectives and barriers Sources of information and collaboration Derived from official surveys of R&D and innovation (OCyT)

12 Related indicators Publication in peer reviewed journals Co-publication evidence of knowledge flows Geography Multi-disciplinarity Sectors HR characteristics and mobility Commercialization Knowledge from one sector creating value in another AUTM provides an example of measurement.

13 International RICYT NEPAD / African Innovation Outlook OECD STI Scoreboard Innovation Union Scoreboard World Economic Forum National OCyT NSF STIC BMBF OST

14 Targets and benchmarks X% for GERD/GDP, GERD/GDP as headline indicator But Quest for an innovation headline indicator in the EU is ongoing Indicators need context and legitimacy

15 Now Definitions OM, FM,... Implementation CIS (-like), R&D surveys,... Data to populate statistics Statistics to be used as indicators Dissemination mechanisms in place Question To what extent are indicators used in policy?

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17 Understanding user innovation in firms Knowledge Transferred to 1. No one 2. Community of Practice or Peer Group 3. Producer 4. Firm Start-Up Use of emerging technologies and practices Measuring weak signals of existing activities Using foresight to anticipate indicator development Anticipating change and the indicators needed to follow it

18 What about constrained innovation? X innovation for Y Example X = inclusive Y = development Inclusive Innovation is any innovation that leads to affordable access of quality goods and services creating livelihood opportunities for the excluded population, primarily at the base of the pyramid and on a long term sustainable basis with a significant outreach Mashelkar 2012

19 Inclusive innovation for development Ex ante objectives Ex post measures to verify In the short term that the inclusive innovation had happened There were longer term impacts Implementing such a definition is possible But not in a single measurement There are at least three time scales present.

20 X = Grass roots Pro poor Bottom of the pyramid Gandhian (Jugaad) Frugal...

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22 Consumers as user innovators Are they innovators? No. But, change para 150 from on the market to to potential users Then ask how the knowledge is transferred Public institutions as innovators Again use the change to para 150 Work on PS innovation is brought into the OM framework and so is the user of PS products (user innovation in the public sector)

23 Social innovation Communities acting to improve the welfare of their members Managing the Commons Grass roots innovation (agriculture,... ) Letty et al. (2012) An emerging subject, but an important one Innovation in the informal sector? Can this fit into the OM? Konte and Ndong (2012) Innovation and indigenous knowledge

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25 Definitions Can the OM be revised to accommodate innovation outside of the business sector Language (vocabulary and grammar) Agreement on what the words mean and how they are used Implementation through surveys, administrative data, and linkages Resulting in a better understanding of the system, but that needs- Analysis of data on activities, linkages and outcomes Challenging, for RICYT, for policy departments of government, universities (political science) and for official statistics Leading to a Science of Innovation Policy

26 Revision of the Frascati Manual Started in April 2013 Revision of the Oslo Manual 2015? Greater collaboration across OECD directorates and across ministries in member and observer countries OECD Blue Sky III, 2016 A ten year agenda, not just for innovation indictors Scientometrics and Policy analysis OECD IPP

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28 AU-NEPAD (2010), African Innovation Outlook 2010, Pretoria: AU-NEPAD. Gault, Fred (2010), Innovation Strategies for a Global Economy: Development, Implementation, Measurement and Management, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar and Ottawa: IDRC. Gault, Fred (2011a), Social Impacts of the Development of Science, Technology and Innovation Indicators, Working Paper , Maastricht: UNU-MERIT. Gault, Fred (2011b), Developing a Science of Innovation Policy Internationally, in Kaye Husbands Fealing, Julia I. Lane, John H. Marburger III, and Stephanie S. Shipp, The Science of Science Policy: A Handbook, Stanford: Stanford University Press. Gault, Fred (2012), User Innovation and the Market, Science and Public Policy, 39: Gault, Fred, (ed.) (2013), Handbook of Innovation Indicators and Measurement, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

29 Konté, Almamy and Mariama Ndong (2012), The informal ICT sector and innovation processes in Senegal, Working Paper , Maastricht: UNU-MERIT. Kraemer-Mbula, Erika and Watu Wamae (2010), Innovation and the Development Agenda, Paris: OECD. Juma, Calestous (2011), The New Harvest: Agricultural Innovation in Africa, Oxford: Oxford University Press. Letty, Brigid, Zanele Shezi & Maxwell Mudhara (2012), An exploration of agricultural grassroots innovation in South Africa and implications for innovation indicator development, Working Paper , Maastricht: UNU-MERIT Lundvall, Bengt-Ǻke, K.J. Joseph, Cristina Chaminade and Jan Wang (eds.) (2009), Handbook of Innovation Systems and Developing Countries: Building Domestic Capabilities in a Global Setting, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar Niosi, Jorge (2010), Building National and Regional Innovation Systems: Institutions for Economic Development, Cheltenham: Edward Elgar.

30 OECD (2007a), Science, Technology and Innovation Indicators in a Changing World: Responding to Policy Needs, Paris: OECD. OECD (2009), Innovation in Firms: A Microeconomic Perspective, Paris: OECD. OECD (2010a), The OECD Innovation Strategy: Getting a Head Start on Tomorrow, Paris: OECD. OECD (2010b), Measuring Innovation: A New Perspective, Paris: OECD. OECD (2011a), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Scoreboard 2011, Paris: OECD. OECD (2011b), Demand-Side Innovation Policies, Paris: OECD. OECD (2012), OECD Science, Technology and Industry Outlook 2012, Paris: OECD. OECD (2013), Agricultural Innovation Systems: A Framework for Analysing the Role of Government, Paris: OECD. OECD/Eurostat (2005), Oslo Manual, Guidelines for Collecting and Interpreting Innovation Data, Paris: OECD. RICYT/OEC/CYTED (2001), Standardization of Indicators of Technological Innovation in Latin American and Caribbean Countries: Bogotá Manual, Buenos Aires: RICYT. World Bank (2010), Innovation Policy: A Guide for Developing Countries, Washington DC: The World Bank.