Testing A New Methodology For Exit Polling: A National, Panel-Based Experiment Conducted by The Associated Press-RC Center for Public Affairs Research Interviews: 10/31-11/8/2016 2,408 adults TE: weighted results show percentages among respondents who voted for Clinton, Trump, Johnson, or Stein (excluding those who voted for others or did not vote for president).
Q7. In today s election/the election for president, did you (just) vote for: SEX Pool Hillary Clinton 50 49 48 48 Donald Trump 36 43 47 46 Gary Johnson 5 4 3 3 Jill Stein 2 2 1 1 Other 2 2 No vote 4 1 N= 2,408 24,675 2,314 24,558 Pool Male 47 39 6 2 2 3 42 49 4 2 2 1 44 50 4 1 41 52 4 1 Female 53 34 5 1 2 5 55 38 3 1 2 1 51 45 2 1 54 41 3 1 N= 2,408 24,620 2,314 24,503 AGE GROUP Pool TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 2 18-24 57 24 12 2 2 3 54 33 6 3 3 1 54 38 6 1 56 34 6 2 25-29 59 23 10 5 2 1 54 34 6 3 3 1 59 31 6 3 54 38 5 2 30-39 52 29 8 2 5 4 51 38 5 2 3-53 39 4 1 51 39 5 2 40-49 52 35 7 2 1 3 48 44 4 1 2-51 43 4 1 46 49 3 1 50-64 47 45 1 1 1 4 46 49 2 1 1-41 56 1 1 44 52 2 1 65 or over 44 45 2 1 1 7 48 47 2 1 1 1 45 53 1 * 45 52 2 - N= 2,408 24,501 2,314 24,386
RACE/ETHNICITY Pool White 40 46 6 2 2 3 38 53 4 1 2 1 36 59 3 1 37 57 4 1 Black 87 4 2 1 1 6 90 7 1 1 1-94 4 1 * 89 8 2 1 Hispanic/Latino 68 20 4 2 1 4 66 25 4 3 1 1 67 29 2 1 66 28 3 2 Asian 68 21 2-2 7 68 26 3 2 1 1 82 17 * - 65 27 4 2 Other 54 25 9 3 5 4 56 35 4 3 2 1 43 42 8 2 56 36 3 2 N= 2,408 24,328 2,314 24,214 EDUCATION Pool High school or less 46 43 4 1 1 5 46 49 3 1 1 1 43 53 2 1 46 51 2 1 Some college/assoc. 47 38 6 3 2 4 degree 44 48 4 1 2-45 49 4 2 43 51 4 1 College graduate 50 33 9 1 4 3 49 42 4 2 2 1 46 46 5 1 49 44 4 1 Postgraduate study 67 23 4 2 2 2 59 33 3 2 2 1 70 26 2 1 58 37 3 1 N= 2,408 23,580 2,314 23,472 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 3
INCOME Pool Under $50,000 53 33 5 2 2 5 53 38 4 2 2-51 44 3 1 53 41 4 1 $50,000-$99,999 47 40 6 3 2 3 48 45 3 1 2 1 43 51 3 2 46 49 3 1 $100,000 or more 50 39 5 1 2 3 48 45 3 1 2 1 49 46 3 * 47 47 3 1 N= 2,408 9,125 2,314 9,087 PARTY ID Pool Democrat 86 7 2 1 1 3 89 8 1 1 1-90 8 1 1 89 8 1 1 Republican 8 82 5 * 2 2 8 87 3-2 - 7 89 2 * 8 88 2 - Independent or something else 41 35 10 4 3 6 42 43 8 3 3 1 43 48 5 2 42 46 7 2 N= 2,408 23,530 2,314 23,420 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 4
IDEOLOGY Pool Liberal 83 6 5 3 1 3 84 9 3 3 1-86 9 3 2 84 10 3 2 Moderate 53 32 6 2 3 5 53 38 5 1 2 1 52 42 3 1 52 40 5 1 Conservative 19 70 5 1 3 3 16 78 3 1 2 1 16 79 3 1 16 81 2 - N= 2,408 23,036 2,314 22,927 MARRIED Pool Yes 43 44 5 2 2 4 44 49 3 1 2-40 55 3 1 44 52 3 1 No 57 29 6 2 2 4 56 35 4 2 2 1 56 39 3 1 55 37 4 1 N= 2,408 9,507 2,314 9,465 WHITE EVANGELICAL/BORN AGAIN Pool TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 5 White evangelical or white born-again Christian 23 67 5 1 3 3 17 77 2 1 3-18 79 2 1 16 80 2 - All others 58 28 6 2 2 4 61 31 4 2 2 1 56 38 3 1 60 34 3 2 N= 2,408 4,831 2,314 4,806
RELIGION Pool Protestant 40 49 5 1 3 2 36 57 4 1 2 1 36 60 2 * 36 59 3 - Catholic 51 38 5 1 1 5 49 46 2 1 1-50 47 2 1 46 50 2 1 Mormon 25 47 9 3 13 3 16 61 8 2 12 1 36 53 6 * 28 56 6 2 Other Christian 43 44 5 2 2 4 44 50 3 1 1-40 54 3 1 43 54 2 - Jewish 74 19 5 - - 2 73 20 4 2 1 1 78 19 3-71 23 4 2 Muslim 81 - - 13-6 # # # # # # 96 - - 4 # # # # Other 55 30 5 4 1 5 62 28 4 4 2 1 55 40 2 2 58 32 4 3 None 65 20 7 3 3 3 68 21 5 3 2 1 62 29 4 2 67 25 5 2 N= 2,408 8,293 2,314 8,254 METRO/URBANICITY Pool Non-metro area 36 51 4 2 2 5 31 64 2 1 Metro area 52 34 6 2 2 4 51 44 3 1 City over 50,000 59 33 4 2 2 1 60 34 3 1 Suburbs 48 44 3 2 2 1 45 49 3 1 Small city and rural 34 58 4 1 2 0 34 61 3 1 N= 2,408 24,675 2,314 24,558 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 6
Q8. In today s election/the election for U.S. House of Representatives, did you (just) vote for: Pool The Democratic candidate 85 5 3 2 1 2 88 6 2 2 1-89 7 2 1 90 5 2 1 The Republican candidate 7 81 7 1 3 2 7 86 4 1 2 1 6 89 3 * 8 87 3 - Other, please specify 24 19 26 11 7 13 22 38 20 11 9-37 22 22 14 Did not vote 35 26 15 4 3 18 36 39 9 4 4 8 OMIT 46 38 4-9 12 - - - - - - N= 2,408 23,613 2,314 23,029 Q9. Which best describes your feelings about the way the federal government is working? [HALF OF AMERISPEAK SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER] Pool Enthusiastic 86 9 - - - 5 82 16 1 1 1 # 89 11 - - 78 19 2 - Satisfied, but not enthusiastic 80 13 2 1 1 3 77 18 3 1 1-80 18 1 1 76 19 3 1 Dissatisfied, but not angry 48 36 6 2 2 5 45 45 5 2 3 1 48 47 3 1 46 48 3 1 Angry 25 60 7 3 3 2 18 74 4 3 2-20 73 4 1 18 75 2 2 OMIT 53 24 - - - 24 # # # # # # N= 2,408 5,030 2,314 5,006 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 7
Q10. Do you expect life for the next generation of Americans to be: [AMERISPEAK: HALF SAMPLE ASKED FIRST TWO RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER] Pool Better than life today 64 27 3 2 1 3 61 35 2 1 1-62 36 1 1 59 38 2 1 Worse than life today 35 49 7 2 3 4 29 61 5 2 2 1 31 63 3 1 31 63 4 1 About the same 63 24 6 2 2 4 54 36 6 1 2 1 64 31 3 1 54 38 6 1 OMIT 35 52 4 - - 9 42 54 1 1 1 1 N= 2,408 4,926 2,314 4,902 Q11. In your vote for president, how would you rate the importance of the presidential debates? [AMERISPEAK: HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER] Pool The most important factor 58 36 2 1 1 3 55 41 2 1 2-52 46 1 * 51 47 1 - An important factor 55 31 5 2 3 5 51 41 4 1 2-53 42 2 1 50 45 4 1 A minor factor 42 44 6 2 3 2 41 51 4 1 2 1 38 56 3 1 37 58 3 1 Not a factor at all 37 42 10 5 1 6 42 44 7 2 4 1 37 55 4 3 41 49 6 1 OMIT 29 43 - - - 29 56 36 5 2 1 1 N= 1,654 4,207 1,588 4,190 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 8
Q12. Which one of these four issues is the most important facing the country? Pool Foreign policy 60 23 8 6 3 1 62 28 4 2 3-61 28 5 4 60 33 3 2 Immigration 27 64 2 1 2 4 31 64 2-2 1 22 75 1 1 33 64 2 1 The economy 56 30 6 2 2 4 53 39 4 2 2 1 55 39 3 1 52 41 4 1 Terrorism 42 46 4 1 2 5 42 53 3 1 2 1 38 60 1 * 40 57 2 1 OMIT 47 24 6 - - 24 44 46 4 3 3 # N= 2,408 9,725 2,314 9,682 Q13. Which one of these four candidate qualities mattered most in deciding how you voted for president? Pool Cares about people like me 63 20 4 3 4 8 58 32 4 3 3-66 28 2 2 57 34 3 3 Can bring needed change 14 75 5 3 1 2 16 78 3 1 1-12 84 2 1 14 82 3 1 Has the right experience 89 6 2 * - 3 90 7 2-1 - 91 8 1 * 90 7 1 - Has good judgment 65 10 13 2 6 4 66 21 7 2 4 1 73 15 7 1 65 25 6 1 OMIT 28 28 7-3 34 42 45 4 2 4 2 N= 2,408 9,725 2,314 9,682 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 9
Q14. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton: Pool Favorable 93 1 1 * 1 3 96 3 1 - - - 97 2 1 * 96 3 1 - Unfavorable 14 66 9 3 3 4 11 77 6 2 3 1 12 80 4 2 11 81 6 1 OMIT 20 7 7-7 60 # # # # # # N= 2,408 4,838 2,314 4,819 Q15. Is your opinion of Donald Trump: Pool Favorable 3 94 1 * * 2 4 95 1 - - - 3 96 * * 4 95 1 - Unfavorable 69 14 7 3 3 4 76 14 5 2 3 1 74 19 4 2 77 15 5 1 OMIT 17 35 - - - 48 # # # # # # N= 2,408 4,838 2,314 4,819 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 10
Q16. Do you think the condition of the nation s economy is: [AMERISPEAK: HALF SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER] Pool Excellent 87 13 - - - - 82 16 1 # 1 # 89 11 - - 83 16 1 # Good 78 11 4 2 2 3 78 15 2 1 2 1 81 15 2 1 76 18 3 2 Not so good 43 43 7 2 2 4 40 51 5 2 2 1 41 54 3 1 40 53 3 1 Poor 20 65 5 3 3 4 15 76 4 2 2 1 17 78 3 1 15 79 3 2 OMIT 50 - - - - 50 # # # # # # N= 2,408 4,887 2,314 4,863 Q17. Do you think Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy? Pool Yes 96 1 * * * 2 95 3 1-1 # 98 1 * * 94 4 1 - No 26 55 8 3 3 4 21 67 5 2 3 1 23 70 4 2 20 72 4 2 OMIT 45 12 3-3 36 69 24 3 # 3 1 N= 2,408 4,887 2,314 4,863 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 11
Q18. Do you think Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy? Pool Yes 3 92 1 1 * 2 5 94 1 - - - 3 96 1 * 6 94 - - No 67 17 7 2 3 4 71 18 5 2 3 1 69 24 4 1 71 20 4 2 OMIT 27 40 - - - 33 41 52 4 1 1 1 N= 2,408 4,887 2,314 4,863 Q19. When did you finally decide for whom to vote in the presidential election? Pool In the last few days 39 35 9 5 6 7 49 43 4 2 2 1 42 47 5 3 43 43 8 2 In the last week 36 41 11 3 3 7 42 38 10 4 6 1 44 49 4 1 41 49 8 1 In October 40 39 10 4 3 4 41 46 8 2 2 1 39 51 5 2 37 51 6 2 In September 50 42 5 1 1 2 38 51 6 2 3-43 54 2 * 46 48 5 1 Before that 56 35 3 1 1 3 45 49 4 1 - - 52 45 2 1 52 45 2 - OMIT 38 - - - - 63 54 42 2 1 1 - N= 2,408 4,838 2,314 4,819 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 12
Q20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president? [HALF OF AMERISPEAK SAMPLE ASKED RESPONSE OPTIONS IN REVERSE ORDER] Pool Strongly approve 90 2 3 1 1 3 93 3 2 1 1-95 3 2 1 93 4 1 1 Somewhat approve 68 13 8 3 3 5 68 18 7 2 4 1 75 17 5 2 69 20 7 1 Somewhat disapprove 20 59 10 3 4 5 16 70 8 1 3 1 17 74 5 1 14 77 8 1 Strongly disapprove 4 86 4 1 2 2 3 92 2 1 1 1 3 94 2 * 3 93 2 - OMIT 33 17 - - - 50 # # # # # # N= 2,408 4,838 2,314 4,819 Q21. Do you think the country s criminal justice system: Pool Treats all people fairly 27 61 5 1 2 4 25 69 3-1 1 24 72 3 * 23 73 3 - Treats blacks unfairly 71 16 5 3 2 3 73 18 4 3 2-73 21 3 2 72 22 4 2 OMIT 24 47 8 2 1 17 38 53 5 1 2 1 N= 2,408 4,782 2,314 4,758 TE: Hyphens (-) denote values of 0, asterisks (*) denote values less than 0.5, and pound symbols (#) indicate a small base size 13