Subsea Trends & Technology Alex Read, Director, Industries Group, CD-adapco September 15 th 2016
Overview Subsea market conditions (short & long term trends) Industry response Simcenter introduction & role Examples Lazy wave riser design (WGK) Subsea choke (FMC Technologies) TLP orientation (Atkins) Flow induced vibration Vortex induced motion (Chevron, Technip) Summary Page 2
Subsea Market Conditions Lower-for-longer market environment caused by GCC countries pursuing market share (vs price) Increase in production from Saudi & Iran raised output by 1mbpd Weaker demand growth (energy efficiency, Chinese economic transformation, ) Sustained low oil price US$380bn total project CAPEX deferred, with deepwater projects hit hardest [source WoodMackenzie] Sustained price needed for Deepwater $60+? Page 3
Long term view (trends only) Economic growth fuels energy consumption Energy intensity reduced Significant growth in Renewables, but from small base Gas wins share, cleaner HC & increased supply (fracking) & trade (LNG) Global demand for O&G increasing Page 4 Source: BP, Energy Outlook www.bp.com/energyoutlook
So what now? Understand what it takes to succeed in the low cost environment. Innovation. Standardization. Reduce costs & overdesign, without compromising safety. Digital Twin, including Simulation & Design Space Exploration enable innovation & cost reduction (see auto industry) Prepare develop core capabilities & ability to scale Challenges & Opportunities differ: Onshore (tight) vs Offshore; greenfield vs brownfield; Page 5
Simcenter Portfolio for Predictive Engineering Analytics STAR-CCM+ STAR-CCM+ Page 6
Simcenter Portfolio for Predictive Engineering Analytics STAR-CCM+ Fluid Dynamics Solid Mechanics Fluid-structure Interaction Heat Transfer Particle Flows Reacting Flows Multiphase Electrochemistry Electromagnetics Acoustics Rheology Multiphysics Page 7
Simcenter Portfolio for Predictive Engineering Analytics HEEDS Multidisciplinary design exploration HEEDS Page 8
Application Areas Subsurface Process & Separation Technical Safety Page 9 Subsea & Flow Assurance Marine & Offshore Refining & PetroChem
Simulation & Design Space Exploration Innovate to Reduce Cost Lazy Wave Riser Challenge: Design Lazy Wave Riser within constraints to provide best design for competitive tender (short turnaround) Objectives: Minimize tension at vessel Analysis tool: Orcaflex Variables: Suspended length; Sag; Hog; Length on seabed; Touchdown Suspended Length Sag Hog Length on Seabed Touchdown 10 Page 10 10 Lazy Wave Riser
Design Exploration HEEDS & Orcaflex OrcaFlex Analysis Change design variables SHERPA 11 Design Page 11 Exploration Response
Design Exploration OrcaFlex Analysis Change design variables SHERPA Optimal Design 12 Design Page 12 Exploration Response
Optimized Design The optimal design found by HEEDS was the 110 th design evaluated 33% reduction in line tension at vessel under load case 1 35% reduction in line tension at vessel under load case 2 34% reduction in line tension at vessel under load case 3 33% reduction in line tension at vessel under load case 4 33% reduction in line tension at vessel under load case 5 33% reduction in line tension at vessel under load case 6 13 Optimized Page 13 Solutions
Wood Group Kenny, Riser Design Challenge: Improve the design of a steep wave riser: Minimize cost (buoyant cost + flexible cost) Minimize line tension at vessel Upper Catenary Section Lower Catenary Section Feasible Designs Infeasible Designs Rela%ve'to'Baseline'Design' Rela%ve'to'Baseline'Design' 150%$ 150%$ 130%$ 130%$ 110%$ 110%$ 90%$ 90%$ 70%$ 70%$ 50%$ 50%$ 30%$ 30%$ Pareto front of Optimalrepetitive riser HEEDS automates tedious, Designs design and delivers cost-effective solutions Cost$ Cost$ Evaluate responses Change design variables Flexcom Analysis Static and Dynamic Flexcom Analyses Min Bend Radius Result: Optimized designs have the following ranges (relative to baseline design): Cost reduction: 0.59 million (24%) - 0.38 million (15%) Line Tension at Vessel: 42.94 kn increase (57%) - 45.49 kn decrease (60%) Buoyant Section Tension$ Tension$ Page 14
FMC Technologies, Reducing Choke Erosion Challenge: Design pipe choke to reduce downstream pressure and minimize erosion By varying 12 geometry parameters Results: Old process: 3 iterations in 9 days New process: 300 designs in 5 days Pressure UC/DC 2700/2500[psia] Working fluid (Gas+Water) 99.76/ 0.24% Production Flow Rate 200 MMSCFD Inner Diameters 7" XT/ 5" Choke Particle Size 50[μm] Sand Concentration, ppm 2 Sand Mass Rate, kg/s 9.7E-05 Best Design Found (Iteration #253) dp = 535 psi Overall erosion rate = 0.164 g/hr a002=0.68 Infeasible Geometry Mesh Analysis Feasible Process Automation Pressure Drop Erosion Rate NX CAD STAR-CCM+ a008=0.63 a010=0.23 Objective Histories Generation CFD Simulation Page 15
Atkins: Offshore Platform Optimization Challenge: Choose best orientation for offshore Tension Leg Platform (TLP) to: Maximize ventilation (smaller leakage gas clouds) Minimize helideck Impairment from exhaust Under wind from 8 directions at 2 speeds Annual Wind Distribution Vary platform orientation Calculate helideck impairment from exhaust. Optimate helped us to easily explore our design options. Gerard Reynolds, Atkins Calculate helideck impairment from exhaust Helideck Operational Zone Helideck Operational Zone Combined Page 16 Plan View Elevation View
Reducing Overdesign: Flow Induced Vibration Page 17
Case Study: Flow Induced Vibration (FIV) Challenge: Screening methods for FIV overly conservative, leading to uncertainty in design Solution: wave6 and STAR-CCM+ predict acoustic and structural modes, multiphase flow and fatigue life. Validated through JIP. Impact: Avoid field failures, reduced production rates, intervention, overdesign Flow Direction 17 Hz 37 Hz Mode 12 17 28 Hz Hz Mode 2 Mode 3 39 Hz 41 Hz 0.85 MPa RMS 1 MPa RMS 0.77 MPa RMS 0.45 MPa RMS Page 18 Structural modes, free response Acoustic modes free response
Technip: Full-Scale VIM Field data of a Semi VIM motion showed poor correlation with model test data Model Scale Full Scale (Re ~ 10 5 ) (Re ~ 10 7 ) Chevron ETC & Technip initiated CFD study Scale effect (Reynolds number) Mooring / Riser damping Achievements Validation in both model and full scale Identified main source of VIM response difference High-Reynolds number (12 million) wind-tunnel test for full-scale benchmark Chevron Presentation at DOT 2013 Solid lines are from model test Full-scale CFD (45 deg, Hull Only) Dots are from field measurements during loopcurrent events Page 19 DOT2014: VORTEX-INDUCED MOTIONS OF A COLUMN-STABILIZED FLOATER PART II: CFD BENCHMARK AND PREDICTION, G. Wu et al.
Summary Challenging market in the short term Focus be ready for recovery Cost reduction & innovation key simulation & design space exploration role Specific examples provided Riser design Choke erosion Platform orientation Flow induced vibration Flow induced motion Page 20
Alex Read Global Director, Industries Group (CD-adapco) Business Development 11000 Richmond Ave, Suite 110 Houston, TX, 77042 Phone: +1 281 795 7437 E-mail: alex.read@siemens.com siemens.com Page 21